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118 records · Page 7

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Laboratory

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in Louisiana and Mississippi is an Upper Cretaceous source rock formation sandwiched between the sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa sections. The TMS is believed to be the source rock for underlying prolific Tuscaloosa sand formation. The TMS has an unproven estimate of 7,000,000,000 bbls of recoverable oil while its current total average production is about 3,000 bbls of oil per day in 2017. In 2013 and 2014, more than 80 wells were drilled horizontally into the TMS that were fractured using multi-stage fracturing technology. The results from this have been mixed, but recent production for several wells show an appealing initial oil production rate of more than 1000 bbl/day. The preliminary core analysis by industry partners and a few literature studies shows that the TMS is one of the most clay-rich and sensitive shales to water. Due to these and other technical problems, there is high risk for the economic development of TMS compared to other shale plays. The experiences of major industrial players in the TMS show the necessity of open and collaborative efforts to better understand the critical gaps in the development of this challenging and potentially highly economic shale play to enable more cost-efficient and environmentally-sound recovery from this unconventional liquid-rich shale play. The overall objective of this project is to form a consortium of science and industry partners to address the following six major objectives using scientific and technical approaches: 1. To improve wellbore integrity by better understanding the sources of the wellbore instability issues, proposing innovative mud and cement design for the TMS. 2. To improve formation evaluation using laboratory techniques for the evaluation of mineralogical composition, organic content, and produced-water chemistry as well as well log and geophysical analysis. 3. To determine the role of geologic discontinuities on fracture growth and shale creep behavior using digital image correlation technique. 4. To investigate the application of stable CO 2 foam and super-hydrophobic proppants for improved reservoir stimulation. 5. To better understand the nature of water/hydrocarbon/CO 2 flow in clay and organic-rich formation and the role of water/fluid interaction on recovery. 6. To prepare better socio-economic environment for TMS development by community engagement. Subsequently, the TMS virtual laboratory conducted testing and analysis of various properties of rock and formation fluids from the TMS, including but not limited to the following: Analyzing reports and logs to better understand the source of wellbore instability in TMS wells; Experiments to design a customized cement based on TMS requirements; Experiments to obtain the mineralogical and geochemical composition of TMS samples; Seismic analysis of TMS geophysical data to better predict total organic carbon (TOC) content and brittleness in TMS; Well log analysis to better estimate the TOC and geo-mechanical properties of TMS; Experiments on formation water to understand the chemistry of produced water; Experiments to determine the role of lamination and natural fractures on fracture propagation or rock deformation using digital image correlation technique in in-direct tensile tests, semi-circular bend test and creep tests Experiments to determine the stability and rheological properties of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foam in TMS rock samples; Experiments to determine fluid dynamics in un-propped TMS fractures and the role of nano-coating of proppants on fluid dynamics in fractures with proppants; Micro-fluidics experiments to enhance the understanding of fluid dynamics in tight liquidrich pores with high clay content; Socio-economic studies to better engage communities in TMS development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Combining different 3-D global and regional seismic wave propagation solvers towards box tomography in the deep Earth

SUMMARY In previous publications, we presented a general framework, which we called ‘box tomography’, that allows the coupling of any two different numerical seismic wave propagation solvers, respectively outside and inside a target region, or ‘box’. The goal of such hybrid wavefield computations is to reduce the cost of computations in the context of full-waveform inversion for structure within the target region, when sources and/or receivers are located at large distances from the box. Previously, we had demonstrated this approach with sources and receivers outside the target region in a 2-D acoustic spherical earth model, and demonstrated and applied this methodology in the 3-D spherical elastic Earth in a continental scale inversion in which all stations were inside the target region. Here we extend the implementation of the approach to the case of a 3-D global elastic earth model in the case where both sources and stations are outside the box. We couple a global 3-D solver, SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, for the computation of the wavefield and Green’s functions in a reference 3-D model, with a regional 3-D solver, RegSEM, for the computation of the wavefield within the box, by means of time-reversal mirrors. We briefly review key theoretical aspects, showing in particular how only the displacement is needed to be stored at the boundary of the box. We provide details of the practical implementation, including the geometrical design of the mirrors, how we deal with different sizes of meshes in the two solvers, and how we address memory-saving through the use of B-spline compression of the recorded wavefield on the mirror. The proposed approach is numerically efficient but also versatile, since adapting it to other solvers is straightforward and does not require any changes in the solver codes themselves, as long as the displacement can be recovered at any point in time and space. We present benchmarks of the hybrid computations against direct computations of the wavefield between a source and an array of stations in a realistic geometry centred in the Yellowstone region, with and without a hypothetical plume within the ‘box’, and with a 1-D or a 3-D background model, down to a period of 20 s. The ultimate goal of this development is for applications in the context of imaging of remote target regions in the deep mantle, such as, for example, Ultra Low Velocity Zones.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

Progressive transfer learning for low-frequency data prediction in full waveform inversion

To effectively overcome the cycle-skipping issue in full waveform inversion (FWI), we developed a deep neural network (DNN) approach to predict the absent low-frequency components by exploiting the hidden physical relation connecting the low- and the high-frequency data. To efficiently solve this challenging nonlinear regression problem, two novel strategies were proposed to design the DNN architecture and to optimize the learning process: (1) dual data feed structure; (2) progressive transfer learning. With the dual data feed structure, not only the high-frequency data, but also the corresponding beat tone data are fed into the DNN to relieve the burden of feature extraction. The second strategy, progressive transfer learning, enables us to train the DNN using a single evolving training dataset. Within the framework of the progressive transfer learning, the training dataset continuously evolves in an iterative manner by gradually retrieving the subsurface information through the physics-based inversion module, progressively enhancing the prediction accuracy of the DNN and propelling the inversion process out of the local minima. Here, the synthetic numerical experiments suggest that, without any a priori geological information, the low-frequency data predicted by the progressive transfer learning are sufficiently accurate for an FWI engine to produce reliable subsurface velocity models free of cycle-skipping artifacts.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (Final Report)

This document presents final technical findings for the project Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (FE0031782). The project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy Oil and Gas Program to develop and advance technologies that can significantly improve the recovery efficiencies of unconventional oil and gas resources. The overall objective of this project is to improve the ultimate recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources in the United States by developing a method for using unrefined natural gas liquids (NGLs) as treatment fluids to improve hydrocarbon production. Horizontal extended-lateral drilling coupled with high volume hydraulic fracturing has significantly increased production from UOG resources in the U.S. However, the recovery efficiency is low compared to the estimated oil and gas in place. Recent data indicate that less than 10% of the oil in the liquid-rich UOG reservoirs is produced. Alternative completion methods using NGLs could increase production (Battelle, 2016; Wan et al., 2013; Wan, 2013; Downey et al, 2021); however, field validation tests are needed to develop an approach that is economical, efficient, and compatible in the UOG setting to advance towards commercial deployment. This project aims to develop and field test a method to improve recovery of oil resources in UOG shale plays by using Y-Grade NGLs, or a similar combination of NGLs, as treatment fluids. Refined NGLs have been used as a hydraulic treatment fluid in UOG plays for decades and are shown to be particularly effective because their miscibility with oil allows oil to flow more freely; however, the use of Y-Grade (unrefined) NGLs has not been studied. The use of Y-Grade NGLs would be advantageous over refined NGLs because Y-Grade NGLs do not require infrastructure or investment in refining and are already being produced from many UOG reservoirs. The concept was tested and monitored in the field at a commercial well site owned by project partner Hopco, Ltd. The project team, which consists of multiple oil and gas operators, Linde Gas North America LLC (Linde) and the Ohio Division of Geological Survey (ODGS), has extensive experience with oil and gas production in the Appalachian basin and the ability to work together quickly to solve technical issues and research needs. A key part of the proposed work was the use of existing wells for field testing and monitoring. A total of four wells (three vertical and one horizontal) were available for this project. One of the vertical wells was utilized as the test well for the NGL treatment test. A nearby vertical well was used for microseismic monitoring. The remaining vertical well and the horizontal well provided a baseline for typical UOG production in the oil window of the Utica/Point Pleasant (UPP). Major technical tasks of the project include characterization of the geotechnical properties of the UPP with an emphasis on the field site; design and planning for the NGLs testing; field testing and monitoring; analysis and integration of field data; and economic and resource/reserve assessment. The Shoman monitoring well and Doughty NGL treatment well were successfully plugged back during September-October 2020 in preparation for treatment and monitoring. A nitrogen diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) was completed on the Doughty well on July 22, 2021, consisting of 133,000 scf (91 Bbl.) of nitrogen. A nitrogen foam frac was completed in the Utica-Point Pleasant interval on August 17, 2021 with funding from outside sources. A microseismic monitoring array was installed in the Shoman well and monitored microseismic activity during the Doughty well frac job. Y-Grade NGL injection commenced on August 26, 2021. A total of 215 Bbl. was injected but the job was shut down due to a small leak on the suction hose on the pump truck. The Y-Grade treatment resumed on August 27, 2021 and an additional 726 Bbl. of Y-Grade NGL was injected at a well head pressure of 3850 psi. Total volume of injected Y-Grade over the two days of injection was 941 Bbl. The well was shut-in for 17 days following injection to allow the Y-Grade NGLs to soak on the formation. Y-Grade treatment flow back commenced on 9/13/2021 on a weekly basis. Production data, including surface pressures, oil, nitrogen, natural gas, and flow times was measured and recorded. Periodic gas samples were collected and analyzed to determine composition of flowback gas. As of July 2022, the treatment well had produced 726 Bbl of oil and 2,888 mcf gas. In August 2022, tubing and packer in the well were removed and a pump was installed to enhance oil recovery. Currently, the operator is producing the well about 2 days a week for a few hours. The performance of the NGL treatment test was evaluated based on reservoir simulations of the treatment process, processing of well testing data, analysis of micro seismic monitoring data, and production data analysis. This analysis suggested that oil production in the small test would continue through 2025. Upscaling the treatment to a horizontal Utica Point-Pleasant well would allow more oil recovery, but the process would involve more investment, services, and operational support. An economic analysis was conducted for scenarios aimed at upscaling the NGL treatment process for more typical horizontal UPP wells in the Appalachian Basin.

02 PETROLEUM↗