Results for “scenario selection” — Page 7

DOE OSTI2026

Downscaled Daily 1 km Climate Data (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) for Southeast Texas. Full ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 climate projections at 1 km daily resolution.

For the SETx-UIFL, the daily NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset climate projections were downscaled from approximately 27 km to 1 km. The SETx dataset provides very high-resolution climate data for the historical period (1950–2014) and future scenarios derived from CMIP6 global models under the four Tier 1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85), developed for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. A subset of ten NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was selected to represent a balance of model families, climate sensitivities, and availability across scenarios, ensuring a diverse and reliable ensemble for regional analysis. Selected models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM. Daily variables downscaled include tasmax, tasmin, tas, pr, hurs, huss, rsds, rlds, and sfcWind.

Persad, Geeta↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Standard Model Higgs boson decaying into b -quarks using the full Run 2 dataset from the ATLAS detector

The production of dark matter in association with Higgs bosons is predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. An exploration of such scenarios is presented, considering final states with missing transverse momentum and b-tagged jets consistent with a Higgs boson. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC during Run 2, amounting to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . The analysis, when compared with previous searches, benefits from a larger dataset, but also has further improvements providing sensitivity to a wider spectrum of signal scenarios. These improvements include both an optimised event selection and advances in the object identification, such as the use of the likelihood-based significance of the missing transverse momentum and variable-radius track-jets. No significant deviation from Standard Model expectations is observed. Limits are set, at 95% confidence level, in two benchmark models with two Higgs doublets extended by either a heavy vector boson Z' or a pseudoscalar singlet a and which both provide a dark matter candidate χ. In the case of the two-Higgs-doublet model with an additional vector boson Z', the observed limits extend up to a Z' mass of 3 TeV for a mass of 100 GeV for the dark matter candidate. The two-Higgs-doublet model with a dark matter particle mass of 10 GeV and an additional pseudoscalar a is excluded for masses of the a up to 520 GeV and 240 GeV for tan β = 1 and tan β = 10 respectively. Limits on the visible cross-sections are set and range from to 0.05 fb to 3.26 fb, depending on the missing transverse momentum and b-quark jet multiplicity requirements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of design, operational, and end-of-life (EOL) waste pathways’ parameters on material circularity in silicon solar photovoltaic (PV) modules. Dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) quantifies time-series material flows through systems’ life cycle stages to identify hotspots of waste generation, estimate resource needs in the future, and guide sustainable material management. We introduce a DMFA framework based on U.S. electricity demand for the period 2000-2100 to assess stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (i.e., solar glass and aluminum frames). We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacials, large-format-high power modules). Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize material waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Site Ambient Temperatures and Operating Schedules for EIC - Utility CW Considerations

The heat dissipated by the EIC accelerator system and components is ultimately removed by the conventional water-cooling systems that will be ultimately dissipated the waste heat to the atmosphere. An estimated 45 MW of heat will be dissipated to water during full beam operation and that will need to be effectively rejected to the atmosphere. Approximately 50% of the heat is required to be rejected to a low temperature heat sink that cannot be achieved by an evaporative cooling tower during summer. To operate during these summer months, a secondary chilled water refrigeration system will be required that would increase the cost of the cooling water system. Further, operating chiller compressor in the summer months will increase the energy consumption of the machine. This analysis is being prepared to evaluate the impact on operating and capital costs on the cooling system for various summer operating schedules while utilizing the most cost-effective scenario of an evaporative cooling system. The technology selection for the various heat sinks is addressed in a separate write-up and are not expected to change the conclusions of this write-up.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).