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At least 127 records · Page 7

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Seismicity, fault plane solutions, depth of faulting, and active tectonics of the Andes of Peru, Ecuador, and southern Colombia

The long-period P waveforms observed for 17 earthquakes in the Peruvian Andes during 1963-1976 are compared with synthetic waveforms to obtain fault-plane solutions and focal depths. The morphological units of the Peruvian Andes are characterized: coastal plains, Cordillera Occidental, altiplano and central high plateau, Cordillera Oriental, and sub-Andes. The data base and analysis methodology are discussed, and the results are presented in tables, diagrams, graphs, maps, and photographs illustrating typical formations. Most of the earthquakes are shown to occur in the transition zone from the sub-Andes to the Cordillera Oriental under formations of about 1 km elevation at focal depths of 10-38 km. It is suggested that the sub-Andean earthquakes reflect hinterland deformation of a detached fold and thrust belt, perhaps like that which occurred in parts of the Canadian Rockies. From the total crustal shortening evident in Andean morphology and the shortening rate of the recent earthquakes it is estimated that the topography and crustal root of the Andes have been formed during the last 90-135 Myr.

Suarez, G.↗

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗

Factors and processes governing the C-14 content of carbonate in desert soils

A model is presented describing the factors and processes which determine the measured C-14 ages of soil calcium carbonate. Pedogenic carbonate forms in isotopic equilium with soil CO2. Carbon dioxide in soils is a mixture of CO2 derived from two biological sources: respiration by living plant roots and respiration of microorganisms decomposing soil humus. The relative proportion of these two CO2 sources can greatly affect the initial C-14 content of pedogenic carbonate: the greater the contribution of humus-derived CO2, the greater the initial C-14 age of the carbonate mineral. For any given mixture of CO2 sources, the steady-state (14)CO2 distribution vs. soil depth can be described by a production/diffusion model. As a soil ages, the C-14 age of soil humus increases, as does the steady-state C-14 age of soil CO2 and the initial C-14 age of any pedogenic carbonate which forms. The mean C-14 age of a complete pedogenic carbonate coating or nodule will underestimate the true age of the soil carbonate. This discrepancy increases the older a soil becomes. Partial removal of outer (and younger) carbonate coatings greatly improves the relationship between measured C-14 age and true age. Although the production/diffusion model qualitatively explains the C-14 age of pedogenic carbonate vs. soil depth in many soils, other factors, such as climate change, may contribute to the observed trends, particularily in soils older than the Holocene.

Amundson, Ronald↗

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Snow Cover and Freeze/Thaw Observations Over the High Mountain Asia

Toward qualifying hydrologic changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, this study explores the use of a hyper-resolution (1 km) land data assimilation (DA)framework developed within the NASA Land Information System using the Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) forced by the meteorological boundary conditions from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data. Two different sets of DA experiments are conducted:(1) the assimilation of a satellite-derived snow cover map (MOD10A1) and (2) the assimilation of the NASA MEaSUREs landscape freeze/thaw product from 2007 to 2008. The performance of the snow cover assimilation is evaluated via comparisons with available remote sensing-based snow water equivalent product and ground-based snow depth measurements. For example, in the comparison against ground-based snow depth measurements, the majority of the stations (13 of 14) show slightly improved goodness-of-fit statistics as a result of the snow DA, but only four are statistically significant. In addition, comparisons to the satellite-based land surface temperature products (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) show that freeze/thaw DA yields improvements (at certain grid cells) of up to 0.58 K in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 0.77K in the absolute bias (relative to model-only simulations). In the comparison against three ground-based soil temperature measurements along the Himalayas, the bias and the RMSE in the 0-10 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 10 and 7%,respectively. The improvements in the top layer of soil estimates also propagate through the deeper soil layers, where the bias and the RMSE in the 10-40 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 9 and 6%, respectively. However, no statistically significant skill differences are observed for the freeze/thaw DA system in the comparisons against ground-based surface temperature measurements at mid-to-low altitude. Therefore, the two proposed DA schemes show the potential of improving the predictability of snow mass, surface temperature, and soil temperature states across HMA, but more ground-based measurements are still required, especially at high-altitudes, in order to document a more statistically significant improvement as a result of the two DA schemes.

High Mountain Asia↗

Advances in Assimilation of Satellite-Based Passive Microwave Observations for Soil-Moisture Estimation

Satellite-based microwave measurements have long shown potential to provide global information about soil moisture. The European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, [1]) mission as well as the future National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP, [2]) mission measure passive microwave emission at L-band frequencies, at a relatively coarse (40 km) spatial resolution. In addition, SMAP will measure active microwave signals at a higher spatial resolution (3 km). These new L-band missions have a greater sensing depth (of -5cm) compared with past and present C- and X-band microwave sensors. ESA currently also disseminates retrievals of SMOS surface soil moisture that are derived from SMOS brightness temperature observations and ancillary data. In this research, we address two major challenges with the assimilation of recent/future satellite-based microwave measurements: (i) assimilation of soil moisture retrievals versus brightness temperatures for surface and root-zone soil moisture estimation and (ii) scale-mismatches between satellite observations, models and in situ validation data.

De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.↗

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter Using High-Resolution Satellite Images in the Southeastern US 2003-2011

Numerous studies have demonstrated that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with adverse health outcomes. The use of ground monitoring stations of PM(sub 2.5) to assess personal exposure, however, induces measurement error. Land-use regression provides spatially resolved predictions but land-use terms do not vary temporally. Meanwhile, the advent of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have made possible to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of PM(sub 2.5) exposures. In this paper, we used AOD data with other PM(sub 2.5) variables, such as meteorological variables, land-use regression, and spatial smoothing to predict daily concentrations of PM(sub 2.5) at a 1 sq km resolution of the Southeastern United States including the seven states of Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Florida for the years from 2003 to 2011. We divided the study area into three regions and applied separate mixed-effect models to calibrate AOD using ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements and other spatiotemporal predictors. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we obtained out of sample R2 values of 0.77, 0.81, and 0.70 with the square root of the mean squared prediction errors of 2.89, 2.51, and 2.82 cu micrograms for regions 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The slopes of the relationships between predicted PM2.5 and held out measurements were approximately 1 indicating no bias between the observed and modeled PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. Predictions can be used in epidemiological studies investigating the effects of both acute and chronic exposures to PM(sub 2.5). Our model results will also extend the existing studies on PM(sub 2.5) which have mostly focused on urban areas because of the paucity of monitors in rural areas.

PM2.5↗

Relationship of EUV Irradiance Coronal Dimming Slope and Depth to Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Mass

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) coronal dimmings are often observed in response to solar eruptive events. These phenomena can be generated via several different physical processes. For space weather, the most important of these is the temporary void left behind by a coronal mass ejection (CME). Massive, fast CMEs tend to leave behind a darker void that also usually corresponds to minimum irradiance for the cooler coronal emissions. If the dimming is associated with a solar are, as is often the case, the are component of the irradiance light curve in the cooler coronal emission can be isolated and removed using simultaneous measurements of warmer coronal lines. We apply this technique to 37dimming events identified during two separate two-week periods in 2011, plus an event on 2010 August 7 analyzed in a previous paper, to parameterize dimming in terms of depth and slope. We provide statistics on which combination of wavelengths worked best for the flare-removal method, describe the fitting methods applied to the dimming light curves, and compare the dimming parameters with corresponding CME parameters of mass and speed. The best linear relationships found are nu(sub CME) [km/s] approx. equals 2.36 x 10 6 [km/%] x s(sub dim) [%/s] m(sub CME) [g] approx. equals 2.59 x 10(exp.15 [g/%] x the square root of d(sub dim) [%].These relationships could be used for space weather operations of estimating CME mass and speed using near-real-time irradiance dimming measurements.

Mason, James Paul↗

Extensive Characterization of Aerosol Optical Properties and Chemical Component Concentrations: Application of the GRASP/Component Approach to Long-term AERONET Measurements

A recently developed GRASP/Component approach (GRASP: Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties) was applied to AERONET (Aeronet Robotic Network) sun photometer measurements in this study. Unlike traditional aerosol component retrieval, this approach allows the inference of some information about aerosol composition directly from measured radiance, rather than indirectly through the inversion of optical parameters, and has been integrated into the GRASP algorithm. The newly developed GRASP/Component approach was applied to 13 AERONET sites for different aerosol types under the assumption of aerosol internal mixing rules to analyze the characteristics of aerosol components and their distribution patterns. The results indicate that the retrievals can characterize well the spatial and temporal variability of the component concentration for different aerosol types. A reasonable agreement between GRASP BC retrievals and MERRA-2 BC products is found for all different aerosol types. In addition, the relationships between aerosol component content and aerosol optical parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine-mode fraction (FMF), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), scattering Ångström exponent (SAE), and single scattering albedo (SSA) are also analyzed for indirect verifying the reliability of the component retrieval. It was demonstrated the GRASP/Component optical retrievals are in good agreement with AERONET standard products [e.g., correlation coefficient (R) of 0.93–1.0 for AOD, fine-mode AOD (AODF), coarse-mode AOD (AODC) and Ångström exponent (AE); R = ~ 0.8 for absorption AOD (AAOD) and SSA; RMSE (root mean square error) < 0.03 for AOD, AODF, AODC, AAOD and SSA]. Thus, it is demonstrated the GRASP/Component approach can provide aerosol optical products with comparable accuracy as the AERONET standard products from the ground-based sun photometer measurements as well as some additional important inside on aerosol composition.

Xindan Zhang↗

Estimating Ground-Level PM(sub 2.5) Concentrations in the Southeastern United States Using MAIAC AOD Retrievals and a Two-Stage Model

Previous studies showed that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with various health outcomes. Ground in situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5) concentrations are considered to be the gold standard, but are time-consuming and costly. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have the potential to supplement the ground monitoring networks to provide spatiotemporally-resolved PM(sub 2.5) exposure estimates. However, the coarse resolutions (e.g., 10 km) of the satellite AOD products used in previous studies make it very difficult to estimate urban-scale PM(sub 2.5) characteristics that are crucial to population-based PM(sub 2.5) health effects research. In this paper, a new aerosol product with 1 km spatial resolution derived by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was examined using a two-stage spatial statistical model with meteorological fields (e.g., wind speed) and land use parameters (e.g., forest cover, road length, elevation, and point emissions) as ancillary variables to estimate daily mean PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. The study area is the southeastern U.S., and data for 2003 were collected from various sources. A cross validation approach was implemented for model validation. We obtained R(sup 2) of 0.83, mean prediction error (MPE) of 1.89 micrograms/cu m, and square root of the mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) of 2.73 micrograms/cu m in model fitting, and R(sup 2) of 0.67, MPE of 2.54 micrograms/cu m, and RMSPE of 3.88 micrograms/cu m in cross validation. Both model fitting and cross validation indicate a good fit between the dependent variable and predictor variables. The results showed that 1 km spatial resolution MAIAC AOD can be used to estimate PM(sub 2.5) concentrations.

aerosol optical depth↗

Validation of SMAP L2 passive-only soil moisture products using upscaled in situ measurements collected in Twente, the Netherlands

The Twente region in the east of the Netherlands has a network with twenty soil monitoring stations that has been utilized for validation of the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) passive-only soil moisture products. Over the period from April 2015 until December 2018, seven stations covered by the SMAP reference pixels 15 have fairly complete data records. Spatially distributed soil moisture simulations with the Dutch national hydrological model have been utilized for the development of upscaling functions to translate the spatial mean of point measurements to the domain of the SMAP reference pixels. The native and upscaled spatial soil moisture means computed using the in-situ measurements have been adopted as references to assess the performance of the SMAP i) Single Channel Algorithm at Horizontal Polarization (SCA-H), ii) Single Channel Algorithm at Vertical Polarization (SCA-V), and iii) Dual Channel Algorithm (DCA) soil moisture estimates. In the case of the Twente network it was found that the SCA-V soil moisture retrieved SMAP observations collected in the afternoon had the best agreement with the native spatial mean leading to an unbiased Root Mean Squared Error (uRMSE) of 0.059 m3 m-3, whereas for the upscaled in-situ references primarily larger biases were found. These error levels are larger than the mission’s target accuracy of 0.04 m3 m-3, which can be attributed to large over- and underestimation errors (>0.08 m3 m-3) in particular at the end of dry spells and during freezing, respectively. The strong vertical dielectric gradients associated with rapid soil freezing and wetting causes the disparity in soil depth characterized by SMAP and in situ that leads to the large mismatches. Once filtered for frozen conditions and antecedent rainfall the uRMSE improves to 0.043 m3 m-3.

Rogier van der Velde↗

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

Groundwater↗

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

water cycle↗

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗

Addressing the Hard Factors for Command File Errors by Probabilistic Reasoning

Command File Errors (CFE) are managed using standard risk management approaches at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over the last few years, more emphasis has been made on the collection, organization, and analysis of these errors for the purpose of reducing the CFE rates. More recently, probabilistic modeling techniques have been used for more in depth analysis of the perceived error rates of the DAWN mission and for managing the soft factors in the upcoming phases of the mission. We broadly classify the factors that can lead to CFE's as soft factors, which relate to the cognition of the operators and hard factors which relate to the Mission System which is composed of the hardware, software and procedures used for the generation, verification & validation and execution of commands. The focus of this paper is to use probabilistic models that represent multiple missions at JPL to determine the root cause and sensitivities of the various components of the mission system and develop recommendations and techniques for addressing them. The customization of these multi-mission models to a sample interplanetary spacecraft is done for this purpose.

Meshkat, Leila↗

Remote sensing of soil moisture - Recent advances

Recent advancements in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture include a method for estimating the dependence of the soil dielectric constant on its texture, the use of a percent of field capacity to express soil moisture magnitudes independently of soil texture, methods of estimating soil moisture sampling depth, and models for describing the effect of surface roughness on microwave response in terms of surface height variance and horizontal correlation length, as well as the verification of radiative transfer model predictions of microwave emission from soils and methods for the estimation of vegetation effects on the microwave response to soil moisture. Such researches have demonstrated that it is possible to remotely sense soil moisture in the 0-5 cm soil surface layer, and simulation studies have indicated how remotely sensed surface soil moisture may be used to estimate evapotranspiration rates and root-zone soil moisture.

Schmugge, T. J.↗

Periodontal Probe Improves Exams, Alleviates Pain

Dentists, comedian Bill Cosby memorably mused, tell you not to pick your teeth with any sharp metal object. Then you sit in their chair, and the first thing they grab is an iron hook!" Conventional periodontal probing is indeed invasive, uncomfortable for the patient, and the results can vary greatly between dentists and even for repeated measurements by the same dentist. It is a necessary procedure, though, as periodontal disease is the most common dental disease, involving the loss of teeth by the gradual destruction of ligaments that hold teeth in their sockets in the jawbone. The disease usually results from an increased concentration of bacteria in the pocket, or sulcus, between the gums and teeth. These bacteria produce acids and other byproducts, which enlarge the sulcus by eroding the gums and the periodontal ligaments. The sulcus normally has a depth of 1 to 2 millimeters, but in patients with early stages of periodontal disease, it has a depth of 3 to 5 millimeters. By measuring the depth of the sulcus, periodontists can have a good assessment of the disease s progress. Presently, there are no reliable clinical indicators of periodontal disease activity, and the best available diagnostic aid, periodontal probing, can only measure what has already been lost. A method for detecting small increments of periodontal ligament breakdown would permit earlier diagnosis and intervention with less costly and time-consuming therapy, while overcoming the problems associated with conventional probing. The painful, conventional method for probing may be destined for the archives of dental history, thanks to the development of ultrasound probing technologies. The roots of ultrasound probes are in an ultrasound-based time-of-flight technique routinely used to measure material thickness and length in the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences Laboratory at Langley Research Center. The primary applications of that technology have been for corrosion detection and bolt tension measurements (Spinoff 2005). This ultrasound measurement system was adapted to the Periodontal Structures Mapping System, invented at Langley by John A. Companion, under the supervision of Dr. Joseph S. Heyman. Support of the research and development that led to this invention was provided by NASA s Technology Applications Engineering Program and by the Naval Institute for Dental and Biomedical Research, in Great Lakes, Illinois.

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