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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Performance of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants as Replacement for R-410A in a Regular 2-Speed Heat Pump for Sustainable Cooling

Heat pumps are currently being developed to reduce the energy footprint for residential and commercial building space conditioning and water heating loads in cold climates. To mitigate the nocuous impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment, and to create a carbon-neutral building stock, alternate lower-GWP refrigerants must also replace the predominant use of R-410A, without re-engineering the mechanical hardware. In this paper, we analyze the performance of lower-GWP alternative refrigerants (R-32, R-452B, R-454B, and R-466A) relative to the conventional R-410A and draw conclusions on the relative performances to meet cooling loads. The simulations are accomplished using the heat pump design model, a well-known, public-domain design tool with a free web interface and downloadable desktop version to support public use and the HVAC R&D community. The contributions contain detailed, hardware-based heat exchanger and system analyses to provide a comprehensive assessment. The results of the simulation are scrutinized from the first (capacity and energy efficiency) and second laws (exergy analysis) to identify sources of systemic inefficiency, the root cause of lost work. This rigorous approach provides an exhaustive analysis of alternate lower-GWP refrigerants to replace R-410A using the same hardware. The results have practical value in engineering heat pumps in an economy that is compelled to alter by the consequences and uncertainties of climate change, to reduce its anthropogenic carbon footprint.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2015

Pendulum Motion in Main Parachute Clusters

The coupled dynamics of a cluster of parachutes to a payload are notoriously difficult to predict. Often the payload is designed to be insensitive to the range of attitude and rates that might occur, but spacecraft generally do not have the mass and volume budgeted for this robust of a design. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) implements a cluster of three mains for landing. During testing of the Engineering Development Unit (EDU) design, it was discovered that with a cluster of two mains (a fault tolerance required for human rating) the capsule coupled to the parachute cluster could get into a limit cycle pendulum motion which would exceed the spacecraft landing capability. This pendulum phenomenon could not be predicted with the existing models and simulations. A three phased effort has been undertaken to understand the consequence of the pendulum motion observed, and explore potential design changes that would mitigate this phenomenon. This paper will review the early analysis that was performed of the pendulum motion observed during EDU testing, summarize the analysis ongoing to understand the root cause of the pendulum phenomenon, and discuss the modeling and testing that is being pursued to identify design changes that would mitigate the risk.

Ray, Eric S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Report of the Odyssey FPGA Independent Assessment Team

An independent assessment team (IAT) was formed and met on April 2, 2001, at Lockheed Martin in Denver, Colorado, to aid in understanding a technical issue for the Mars Odyssey spacecraft scheduled for launch on April 7, 2001. An RP1280A field-programmable gate array (FPGA) from a lot of parts common to the SIRTF, Odyssey, and Genesis missions had failed on a SIRTF printed circuit board. A second FPGA from an earlier Odyssey circuit board was also known to have failed and was also included in the analysis by the IAT. Observations indicated an abnormally high failure rate for flight RP1280A devices (the first flight lot produced using this flow) at Lockheed Martin and the causes of these failures were not determined. Standard failure analysis techniques were applied to these parts, however, additional diagnostic techniques unique for devices of this class were not used, and the parts were prematurely submitted to a destructive physical analysis, making a determination of the root cause of failure difficult. Any of several potential failure scenarios may have caused these failures, including electrostatic discharge, electrical overstress, manufacturing defects, board design errors, board manufacturing errors, FPGA design errors, or programmer errors. Several of these mechanisms would have relatively benign consequences for disposition of the parts currently installed on boards in the Odyssey spacecraft if established as the root cause of failure. However, other potential failure mechanisms could have more dire consequences. As there is no simple way to determine the likely failure mechanisms with reasonable confidence before Odyssey launch, it is not possible for the IAT to recommend a disposition for the other parts on boards in the Odyssey spacecraft based on sound engineering principles.

Mayer, Donald C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ground Operations Autonomous Control and Integrated Health Management

An intelligent autonomous control capability has been developed and is currently being validated in ground cryogenic fluid management operations. The capability embodies a physical architecture consistent with typical launch infrastructure and control systems, augmented by a higher level autonomous control (AC) system enabled to make knowledge-based decisions. The AC system is supported by an integrated system health management (ISHM) capability that detects anomalies, diagnoses causes, determines effects, and could predict future anomalies. AC is implemented using the concept of programmed sequences that could be considered to be building blocks of more generic mission plans. A sequence is a series of steps, and each executes actions once conditions for the step are met (e.g. desired temperatures or fluid state are achieved). For autonomous capability, conditions must consider also health management outcomes, as they will determine whether or not an action is executed, or how an action may be executed, or if an alternative action is executed instead. Aside from health, higher level objectives can also drive how a mission is carried out. The capability was developed using the G2 software environment (www.gensym.com) augmented by a NASA Toolkit that significantly shortens time to deployment. G2 is a commercial product to develop intelligent applications. It is fully object oriented. The core of the capability is a Domain Model of the system where all elements of the system are represented as objects (sensors, instruments, components, pipes, etc.). Reasoning and decision making can be done with all elements in the domain model. The toolkit also enables implementation of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), which are represented as root cause trees. FMEA's are programmed graphically, they are reusable, as they address generic FMEA referring to classes of subsystems or objects and their functional relationships. User interfaces for integrated awareness by operators have been created.

Figueroa, Fernando↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strain energy-based fatigue failure analyses of LB-PBF Inconel 718: Effect of build orientation

Additively manufactured Inconel 718 parts fabricated in three build orientations (horizontal, vertical, and angled at 45 degrees) are tested in fully-reversed bending fatigue mode. Damping measurements via the Impulse Excitation technique are used to assess the defects content in the microstructure and fractography analysis is performed to detect the root cause of failure. Two micro- and macro-scale methodologies of fatigue damage estimation based on the dissipated heat per cycle and the statistical estimation of micro-plastic strain energies are used to assess fatigue damage. It is shown that at a given stress level, the vertically built specimens endure the most fatigue damage before failure while the diagonally built ones sustain the least. As a result, the fatigue life is estimated for arbitrary load amplitudes via a microstructure-sensitive algorithm with acceptable accuracy as compared to the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Digital Image Correlation Data Processing and Analysis Techniques to Enhance Test Data Assessment and Improve Structural Simulations

The NASA Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF) was established in 2007 by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) with the primary goal to develop new analysis-based buckling design factors (a.k.a. knockdown factors) and high-fidelity buckling simulations for selected launch-vehicle-like cylindrical shell structures. A series of tests are being conducted on large-scale metallic and composite cylindrical shells in order to provide validation data for these new factors and simulations. However, the validation of these new factors and simulations is quite demanding and requires test data that is commensurate with their fidelity. Traditional instrumentation, such as linear variable displacement transducers (LVDTs) and electrical-resistance strain gages serve a critical role in providing accurate displacement and strain measurements in these tests, but only allow for data to be recorded at a select number of point locations and are not sufficient to provide all the necessary validation data. Advanced measurement technologies can be used effectively to complement traditional instrumentation and gather additional data required to validate these structural simulations. In particular, three-dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) was implemented during SBKF cylinder testing to characterize the full-field displacement and strain behavior. Commercially available VIC-3DTM software and user-written data processing scripts were used to generate valuable data and insight into the complex buckling response of the cylinders that otherwise would be impossible to gather using traditional instrumentation. In addition, the measured data from DIC was used to verify measured test data obtained from other instrumentation, enhance test and analysis correlation, and help identify the root cause of anomalous test results that may have gone unexplained if only traditional instrumentation was used. Selected test results that demonstrate the use of DIC on the SBKF cylinders are presented and a portion of the data processing methods are described.

Gardner, Nathaniel W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses

Electronics packaging↗
NASA NTRS2018

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses.

Physics of Failure↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Risk Analysis Tool for Estimating the Risk of Electrical Failures Due to Human Induced Defects

Aerospace electrical systems are required to withstand and adequately operate in extremely harsh environments that include, for example, high radiation exposure, temperature extremes, intense vibrational stress and drastic temperature cycling. The nature of aerospace electronics also demands high reliability since, with very few exceptions, there is no chance for hardware servicing or repairs. Common risk mitigation techniques for this type of situation are to perform a Reliability Analysis of the system throughout the development cycle, and to use electrical components that are regarded as “high reliability” because of additional controls and requirements applied in their design, manufacturing and testing. Unfortunately, studies have shown that even though these techniques are used, many systems fail to meet mission requirements well before the predicted lifetimes. This paper presents the analysis of failures of electrical parts, experienced during various stages of system development, at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD, between the years 2001 and 2013. These components were subjected to qualification, screening and testing in which the goal was to ensure that the components would survive the stresses of the mission. The analysis categorizes failures by part type and failure mechanisms. One of the results of the analysis was the realization that a surprising proportion of failures experienced during system integration and testing were caused by human error (i.e. human induced defect). Further analysis included the determination of root failure mechanisms and any influencing factors contributing to these failures. The major causes of these defects were attributed to electrostatic damage (ESD), electrical overstress (EOS), mechanical overstress (MOS), and thermal overstress (TOS). Finally, the study proposes a risk analysis tool which incorporates these major causes for the failures, termed error-producing conditions (EPCs), and a proportionality factor representing the number of each type of failure that has occurred at the facility under study. These factors are quantified and used to communicate the risk of human induced defects for the assembly, integration and testing of space hardware based on the system’s electrical parts list. The new risk identification can trigger risk-mitigating actions more effectively, based on the presence of component categories or other hazardous conditions that have a history of failure due to human error.

Majewicz, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

functional analysis↗
NASA NTRS2004

Materials Analysis: A Key to Unlocking the Mystery of the Columbia Tragedy

Materials analyses of key forensic evidence helped unlock the mystery of the loss of space shuttle Columbia that disintegrated February 1, 2003 while returning from a 16-day research mission. Following an intensive four-month recovery effort by federal, state, and local emergency management and law officials, Columbia debris was collected, catalogued, and reassembled at the Kennedy Space Center. Engineers and scientists from the Materials and Processes (M&P) team formed by NASA supported Columbia reconstruction efforts, provided factual data through analysis, and conducted experiments to validate the root cause of the accident. Fracture surfaces and thermal effects of selected airframe debris were assessed, and process flows for both nondestructive and destructive sampling and evaluation of debris were developed. The team also assessed left hand (LH) airframe components that were believed to be associated with a structural breach of Columbia. Analytical data collected by the M&P team showed that a significant thermal event occurred at the left wing leading edge in the proximity of LH reinforced carbon carbon (RCC) panels 8 and 9. The analysis also showed exposure to temperatures in excess of 1,649 C, which would severely degrade the support structure, tiles, and RCC panel materials. The integrated failure analysis of wing leading edge debris and deposits strongly supported the hypothesis that a breach occurred at LH RCC panel 8.

Mayeaux, Brian M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Options for low-global-warming-potential and natural refrigerants part I: Constrains of the shape of the P–T and T–S saturation phase boundaries

Current research focus is migrating toward low-global-warming-potential (GWP) and natural refrigerants to address the human impact on climate change. In this paper, we examine 13 refrigerants from the perspective of the characteristic shape of their respective temperature–entropy (T–S) and the logarithm of the pressure versus inverse absolute temperature (log P vs. T –1 ) saturated phase boundary. Such analyses explain why certain refrigerants possess a re-entrant characteristic while others do not. The re-entrant region is due to skewness of the saturation boundary. The cause of skewness is investigated for its importance in heat pump performance, design, and configuration. Re-entrant behavior contributes to premature mechanical wear of compressor components. Knowledge of the properties of the phase boundary on either side of the critical point, is useful for a better perspective on discriminating refrigerants, as hydrochlorofluorocarbons are phased out and replacement refrigerants must be found. Here, we conclude by identifying a candidate low-GWP refrigerant for heat pumps. In Part II, we evaluate all 13 refrigerants in thermodynamic cycles based on exergy analysis to identify sources of irreversibility, the root cause of systemic inefficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Metallurgical Failure Analysis of A2 Tool Steel Die Set from High Explosive Pellet Pressing Event

On 2 April 2018, a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) occurred during routine pressing of a 1-in -diameter cylindrical pellet of PBX 9501 high explosive. Fragments of the die set (die body and stemples) involved in the event were sent to Sigma Division for metallurgical analysis. A handheld x-ray fluorescence alloy tester confirmed the die set material to be A2 tool steel. Light optical microscopy revealed what appear to be pre-existing flaws on the inner diameter of the die body. Scanning Electron Microscopy could neither confirm nor exclude the presence of fatigue cracking in the vicinity of these potential flaws. Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy indicated the presence of a carbon-bearing residue on fracture surfaces; nitrogen-bearing residue was also found. Optical microscopy revealed that the microstructure of the stemple and inner diameter of the die body contained large stringers and non-uniform grain size; this was distinct from the relatively clean and uniform microstructure seen at the outer diameter of the die body, and also other A2 tool steel stock (pedigree unknown and with no known connection to any HE pressing hardware) that was examined for additional comparison. Rockwell hardness testing indicated the material was heat treated properly. Metallographic analysis alone could not positively identify the root cause of the event, but, coupled with accounts provided by the operator and the successful history with the particular lot of HE involved in the event, points to ward mechanical failure of the die set due to pre -existing flaw as the most likely precipitating event. Suggestions for additional analyses and future qualification techniques are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗