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At least 127 records · Page 7

Standard Component Commodity Usage Guides (CUGs) for Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs)

Communicating risk and reliability information within NASA Goddard’s missions is crucial to continuing the development of new technology and ensuring GSFC missions achieve their science objectives. The Reliability and Risk Assessment Branch (Code 371) within the SMA directorate is one of GSFC’s leaders in communicating this information to missions, and one tool 371 engineers use to provide this information is the Commodity Usage Guides (CUGs). CUGs are helpful in compiling various critical parameters and heritage information for standard payload components, ensuring project personnel inherit the lessons learned from previous experiences. The purpose of this project was to create CUGs for CCDs used within GSFC missions. To formulate a CUG applicable data was aggregated into the CUG template for Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs)--electro-optical components used to convert photons into digital images and data. CCDs can easily be adapted to a variety of mission requirements making them widely used at GSFC, and therefore suitable for CUGs. Once the CUGs for CCDs are completed the information can be distributed to engineers, scientists and other project members to ensure the lessons learned are passed on to the next mission.

Christman, Jerika H.↗

Technology Readiness Assessment for Stirling Power Convertor

Stirling-based power conversion system could represent a critical enabling technology for future NASA missions, offering significantly enhanced power efficiency over traditional thermoelectric systems. To ensure the successful infusion of this technology into deep space and planetary surface missions, a rigorous evaluation of its maturity and associated risks is essential. The objective of this Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) is to determine the current technology readiness level (TRL) of the Stirling power convertor and identify key technical risks and challenges associated with its maturation and potential infusion into a targeted flight system. The evaluation process will rigorously follow the NASA TRA procedure: (1) determining the requirements that underpin the design, function, and performance; (2) finding and listing all new technology elements (NTEs) and critical technology elements (CTEs); (3) identifying the level of integration assumed for the assessment; and (4) assessing the TRL for each NTE and CTE. The overall subassembly TRL will then be determined via a roll-up using the “weakest link” criterion, culminating in a final (5) assessment of risks to further progression of maturity. This paper will present the results of a comprehensive technology readiness assessment (TRA) conducted on the Stirling-based dynamic power conversion subassembly, excluding the radioisotope heat source. The paper will also describe a detailed breakdown of the TRL roll-up and a matrix of identified risks and recommended mitigation paths, along with identified key technical risks and challenges to achieve the required long-duration performance. Key Words: Radioisotope Power Conversion, Technology Readiness Assessment

Radioisotope Power Conversion↗

A Low Risk Strategy for the Exploration of Near-Earth Objects

The impetus for asteroid exploration is scientific, political, and pragmatic. The notion of sending human explorers to asteroids is not new. Piloted missions to these primitive bodies were first discussed in the 1960s, pairing Saturn V rockets with enhanced Apollo spacecraft to explore what were then called "Earth-approaching asteroids." Two decades ago, NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) also briefly examined the possibility of visiting these small celestial bodies. Most recently, the U.S. Human Space Flight Review Committee (the second Augustine Commission) suggested that near-Earth objects (NEOs) represent a target-rich environment for exploration via the "Flexible Path" option. However, prior to seriously considering human missions to NEOs, it has become clear that we currently lack a robust catalog of human accessible targets. The majority of the NEOs identified by a study team across several NASA centers as "human-accessible" are probably too small and have orbits that are too uncertain to consider mounting piloted expeditions to these small worlds. The first step in developing such a catalog is, therefore, to complete a space-based NEO survey. The resulting catalog of candidate NEOs would then be transformed into a matrix of opportunities for robotic and human missions for the next several decades. This initial step of a space-based NEO survey first is the linchpin to laying the foundation of a low-risk architecture to venture out and explore these primitive bodies. We suggest such a minimalist framework architecture from 1) extensive ground-based and precursor spacecraft investigations (while applying operational knowledge from science-driven robotic missions), 2) astronaut servicing of spacecraft operating at geosynchronous Earth orbit to retain essential skills and experience, and 3) applying the sum of these skills, knowledge and experience to piloted missions to NEOs.

Landis, Rob R.↗

Risk analysis of computer system designs

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

Vallone, A.↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - Cola Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation, where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process. Once an object is launched, there is a finite period of time required to track, catalog, and evaluate that new object as part of standard onorbit COLA screening processes. Additionally, should a conjunction be identified, there is an additional period of time required to plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. While the computed prelaunch probability of collision with any object is extremely low, NASA/JSC has requested that all US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. This paper details a geometric-based COLA gap analysis method developed by the NASA Launch Services Program to determine if launch window cutouts are required to mitigate this risk. Additionally, this paper presents the results of several missions where this process has been used operationally.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

Simulating Ordinary Chondrite (Tamdakht) Ablation at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) Facility.

NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) created the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to inform decision-makers of risks associated with Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs), which may pose an existential threat to human civilization. ATAP assesses risk, in part, by developing analytical physics-based damage models which draw upon data collected during material property characterization efforts, entry simulations, hazard simulations, and ground-based arc-jet testing. Therefore, a pathfinder test campaign was con-ducted at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) at the NASA Langley Re-search Center to investigate the ablation mechanisms of an ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht H5) and a terrestrial analog (basalt). The HyMETS facility is a 400 kW constricted arc heater used to screen material performance under simulated aerothermal conditions of hypersonic flow.1 Facility conditions were chosen to simulate Earth entry conditions be-tween the upper-mesosphere and the lower thermo-sphere. The ablation mechanisms of Tamdakht and bas-alt are illustrated with still images collected from high-speed video cameras (fig. 1, Tamdakht). Tamdakht produces a relatively stable melt flow, as evidenced by the perpetual growth of a flange at the sidewall and the exiguous detachment of molten material into the flow. Furthermore, an inspection of high-speed video and chemical analysis of the post-test melt layer suggests that the dominant mode of mass loss for Tamdakht, at these test conditions, is expressed through the vaporization of volatiles (e.g., iron, potassium, sodium, phosphorus, and sulfur). The vaporization rates of Tamdakht are greater than basalt under the most extreme test conditions, which leads to an enhanced blowing layer, in-creased thermal shielding, and reduced recession. The ablation mechanisms of basalt are markedly different from Tamdakht and are attributed to the presence of hydrated minerals dispersed at irregular intervals throughout the silicate matrix. Rapid de-composition of secondary minerals and the subsequent formation of water lead to the ejection of the subsurface and overlying melt layer. Furthermore, the presence of water is suspected of lowering the viscosity of the melt layer resulting in increased mass loss near the edge of the test article where drag forces overcome rheological properties (fig. 1, bas-alt). Finally, the results will be discussed in the broader context of meteorite-based material response model development and the potential impact on the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP).

Brody K. Bessire↗

Design Basis Model for Hosting Small Modular Reactors

An aggressive transition from fossil fuels to other types of energy implies the need to construct a large number of nuclear power plants in the near future. However, the real and perceived risks of nuclear energy remain a significant impediment to this transition. This paper describes a comprehensive work process that combines the rigor of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) with 1) the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) decades of experience with small reactors and with 2) modern project delivery processes. The objective is to reduce the risk of building new facilities or converting existing facilities to nuclear power generation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

IV&V Planning & Execution Initiative

Independent verification and validation (IV&V) is a systems engineering discipline which seeks to provide confidence that mission-critical software-dependent systems will operate safely and achieve all mission objectives. In order to optimize application of IV&V resources, it is necessary to identify specific assurance objectives that are most likely to reveal difficulty and therefore to increase confidence. Software assurance literature deals predominantly with the code itself. However, our experience is that the most significant software-related issues are discovered via analysis of other system artifacts such as operations concepts, requirements and design. Consequently, it is desirable to, when assessing risk and defining assurance objectives, consider all facets of the software system architecture. We describe in this presentation progress and lessons learned from an IV&V capability development initiative to enhance the IV&V project planning process using all available architecture information.

Risk↗

22 N HPGP Thruster Life Testing

In the ever-changing paradigm of efficient and capable spacecraft design, scientific missions continue pushing the envelope enabling spacecraft subsystems to deliver effective solutions to meet challenging new mission/spacecraft needs. From an in-space storable liquid chemical propulsion perspective, monopropellant hydrazine has been, and continues to be, a dependable propellant with considerable flight heritage, a variety of engine thrust classes available from multiple vendors, with repeatable and reliable performance. Additionally, the space propulsion industry has learned to successfully handle hydrazine, its regulations, the safety protocols, the personnel protective equipment, and the unique training standards–all requisite for loading spacecraft propulsion systems with toxic hypergolic hydrazine. The question now arises as to “what is next for in-space chemical propulsion?” Further, with the evolution and concrete advancements in innovative in-space green propellant technologies, capable of providing realizable benefits to scientific missions, concern over the reliability and availability of this higher performing and safer to handle class of propellants is waning. As science missions move forward with the potential flight in fusion of High Performance Green Propulsion (HPGP), NASA and its industry partners are working to address any gaps in system reliability, performance, or unique operational considerations. Propellant technology that offers both higher performance and significant reduction in personnel hazards compared to hydrazine presents an attractive propulsion subsystem design opportunity. Increased propulsion subsystem performance can result in lower spacecraft launch mass, larger scientific payloads, or extended on-orbit lifetimes. Mission trades using green propulsion technologies have been documented on multiple NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) mission classes, examining various parameters and requirements to support mission architectures in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), High Earth Orbit (HEO), geostationary, lunar, planetary, and Quasi-halo orbit around Sun-Earth Lagrange point (L2). The results of these trade studies show promising, attainable benefits. The perceived programmatic risk of flying a newer propulsion technology has, unfortunately, not outweighed the benefits to date. To take advantage of the improved performance and mitigate programmatic risk, HPGP engines must demonstrate life testing at higher propellant throughputs than have currently been demonstrated. In an effort to proactively address the challenges with technology infusion into a risk-averse community, NASA and the Swedish National Space Agency (SNSA) outlined a collaborative Implementing Arrangement (IA) for the respective agencies to pursue increased HPGP technology maturation. This initial IA effort began in 2013, fresh off the heels of the successful PRISMA HPGP technology demonstration mission. The IA targeted objective is to reduce risk to potential future HPGP missions and fully characterize the LMP-103S propellant and associated engine performance. Over the past eight years, HPGP has flown in propulsion systems on twenty-five(25) spacecraft from seven(7) different Launch Ranges around the globe and on seven (7) different Launch Vehicles. Six(6) of these launches involved multiple loading operations for multiple spacecraft. For U.S. Range operations, nine (9) HPGP systems have been processed at Vandenberg Space Force Base(VSFB):six(6) in 2017, and three (3) in 2018. Six (6) more have been processed at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)in May 2020, with three (3) systems launched in June 2020 and the remaining three (3) system were left loaded and ready until their launch in August of 2020. Three (3) more systems have been processed at Wallops Flight Facility(WFF)and launched in June 2021. In addition, these propulsion subsystems employed heritage propulsion subsystem component such as valves, filters, and pressure transducers, and have further demonstrated nominal functionality in both diaphragm and Propellant Management Device (PDM) propellant tanks. Based on these successes, HPGP technology continues to be considered for NASA Science Mission Directorate missions at GSFC. The work presented herein represents many years of development and collaborative efforts to successfully align higher performance, low toxicity hydrazine alternatives into scientific missions. NASA GSFC Propulsion Engineering, in collaboration with Bradford ECAPS, has developed mission specific thruster design and testing requirements to establish GSFC’s desired test conditions and firing sequences.In2017, the first flight-like 22N HPGP thruster Engineering Qualification Model (EQM-1)was designed and built by Bradford ECAPS to prove out the thruster design, materials, build process, and test campaign with respect to NASA GSFC critical component and mission requirements. This test program was developed to comprehensively test the thruster, the technology, and ultimately increase the 22N HPGP Technology Readiness Level(TRL). EQM-1was tested to environmental qualification levels prior to hot fire performance testing to represent the relevant end-to-end environment (launch to on-orbit operation)with required margin. This thruster demonstrated steady-state and pulse mode operational capability with propellant thruster throughput up to~53kg.At this throughput level, the EQM-1 engine began to present off-nominal performance and the test campaign was halted to allow for non-destructive testing and identify the root cause for the an omalous performance. Capitalizing on the successful elements of the EQM-1 campaign, an upgraded 22N HPGP EQM-2 has been manufactured by Bradford ECAPS to meet the complete GSFC requirements. The EQM-2 thruster’s test campaign has further demonstrated the robustness of the HPGP propulsion technology and increased the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) by undergoing a full acceptance test program, then proceeding into qualification, including environmental testing (vibration and shock to qualification levels),as well as hot-fire life testing, operating at steady-state and pulse modes with increased propellant thruster throughput to~150kg. The HPGP thruster performance testing enables effective HPGP thruster readiness evaluation to meet NASA candidate mission requirements in the future.

High↗

Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

debris↗

Status of automatic guidance systems for rotorcraft in low altitude flight

Rotorcraft operating in high-threat environments fly close to the earth's surface to utilize surrounding terrain, vegetation, or man-made objects to minimize the risk of being detected by an enemy. The piloting of the rotorcraft is at best a very demanding task and the pilots need help from on-board automation tools in order to devote more time to mission-related activities. The Automated Nap-of-the-Earth (NOE) Flight Program is a cooperative NASA/Army program aimed at the development of technologies for enhancing piloted low-altitude/NOE flight path management and control through computer and sensor aiding. The long-term objective is to work towards achieving automation for aiding the pilot in NOE flight with a flight demonstration of resulting computer/sensor aiding concepts at an established course. The technology for pilot-centered NOE automation is not currently available. Success in automating NOE functions will depend on major breakthroughs in real-time flight path planning algorithms, effective methods for the pilot to interface to the automatic modes, understanding of visual images, sensor data processing/fusion, and sensor development. Our approach to developing the technologies required to solve this problem consist of the following phases: (1) algorithm development, (2) laboratory evaluation, (3) piloted ground simulation, and (4) evaluation in flight. An overview of the research in this area at NASA Ames Research Center is given.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Cybersecurity Framework Profile for Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Infrastructure

This document is the Cybersecurity Framework Profile (Profile) developed for the Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging (EV/XFC) ecosystem, including the four domains that relies on the ecosystem (i) Electric Vehicles (EV); (ii) Extreme Fast Charging (XFC); (iii) XFC Cloud or Third-Party Operations; and (iv) Utility and Building Networks. This Profile utilizes the NIST Cybersecurity Framework Version 1.1 and provides voluntary guidance to help relevant parties develop Profiles specific to their organization to understand, assess, and communicate their cybersecurity posture as a part of their risk management process. The Profile is intended to supplement, not replace, an existing risk management program or cybersecurity standards, regulations, and industry guidelines that are in current use by the EV/XFC industry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

MRCI Subtask 2.4/2.5: Regional/Subregional Analysis and Risk Assessment Final Technical Summary Report

The objective of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) project is to implement a collaborative Regional Initiative (RI) to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, and storage (CCS) in the Midwest-Northeastern quadrant of the United States. This report is a Technical Summary report describing work performed on Tasks 2.4 (Conducting Regional/Subregional Analysis) and 2.5 (Assessing and Managing Risk) during the MRCI project. In Task 2.4, detailed numerical reservoir simulation models were developed for selected carbon storage (CS) systems identified under Task 2.1 (Battelle, 2021a) in the MRCI study area. The objective of Task 2.4 is to demonstrate a dynamic modeling methodology for evaluating the suitability of the (selected) CS systems in the MRCI region for hosting a commercial-scale storage project. In this study, CO2 injectivity was evaluated for different CS systems with an annual injection rate of 1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of CO2 considered as the minimum requirement for a commercial scale project. The objective of Task 2.5 is to assess key risks associated with storing CO2 in the different CS systems across the MRCI region and to demonstrate a method(s) for assessing these risks that may be used by developers of future CO2 storage projects in the region. The risk analysis was limited to evaluating two types of leakage risks (i.e., wellbore leakage, flow across unfractured caprock) at three modeled sites considered in Task 2.4.

MRCI,Report,Summary,Technical Challenges,dynamic m↗

Asbestos Exposure Assessment Database

Exposure to particular hazardous materials in a work environment is dangerous to the employees who work directly with or around the materials as well as those who come in contact with them indirectly. In order to maintain a national standard for safe working environments and protect worker health, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has set forth numerous precautionary regulations. NASA has been proactive in adhering to these regulations by implementing standards which are often stricter than regulation limits and administering frequent health risk assessments. The primary objective of this project is to create the infrastructure for an Asbestos Exposure Assessment Database specific to NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) which will compile all of the exposure assessment data into a well-organized, navigable format. The data includes Sample Types, Samples Durations, Crafts of those from whom samples were collected, Job Performance Requirements (JPR) numbers, Phased Contrast Microscopy (PCM) and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) results and qualifiers, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), and names of industrial hygienists who performed the monitoring. This database will allow NASA to provide OSHA with specific information demonstrating that JSC s work procedures are protective enough to minimize the risk of future disease from the exposures. The data has been collected by the NASA contractors Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) and Wyle Laboratories. The personal exposure samples were collected from devices worn by laborers working at JSC and by building occupants located in asbestos-containing buildings.

Arcot, Divya K.↗

Energy Storage Project

NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program funded the Energy Storage Project to develop battery and fuel cell technology to meet the expected energy storage needs of the Constellation Program for human exploration. Technology needs were determined by architecture studies and risk assessments conducted by the Constellation Program, focused on a mission for a long-duration lunar outpost. Critical energy storage needs were identified as batteries for EVA suits, surface mobility systems, and a lander ascent stage; fuel cells for the lander and mobility systems; and a regenerative fuel cell for surface power. To address these needs, the Energy Storage Project developed advanced lithium-ion battery technology, targeting cell-level safety and very high specific energy and energy density. Key accomplishments include the development of silicon composite anodes, lithiated-mixed-metal-oxide cathodes, low-flammability electrolytes, and cell-incorporated safety devices that promise to substantially improve battery performance while providing a high level of safety. The project also developed "non-flow-through" proton-exchange-membrane fuel cell stacks. The primary advantage of this technology set is the reduction of ancillary parts in the balance-of-plant--fewer pumps, separators and related components should result in fewer failure modes and hence a higher probability of achieving very reliable operation, and reduced parasitic power losses enable smaller reactant tanks and therefore systems with lower mass and volume. Key accomplishments include the fabrication and testing of several robust, small-scale nonflow-through fuel cell stacks that have demonstrated proof-of-concept. This report summarizes the project s goals, objectives, technical accomplishments, and risk assessments. A bibliography spanning the life of the project is also included.

Mercer, Carolyn R.↗

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗