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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Impulse Noise Sampling at 9965 - Armag

One detonation test was monitored for impulse noise at Thunder Range on November 6, 2020. The TNT equivalency for this shot was 100 lbs. Ground zero for this test was located at an open area of Range 7. The Armag, where MOW were remotely located, was just south of the east end of the TR shock tube The purpose of this sampling event was to characterize the noise attenuation provided by the Armag which will be used as the primary firing location in a future test series. To determine attenuation provided by the Armag, one sound level monitor was placed inside and a second monitor was placed outside the hardened structure at the same distance from ground zero. The Armag was located 1300 feet from ground zero. Essential personnel performing these tests were remotely located inside the Armag and wore hearing protection with a minimum NRR of 23. Members of the Workforce (MOW) who are exposed to noise levels above 140 dBC, regardless of hearing protection worn, are required to be enrolled into the SNL Hearing Conservation Program which includes audiometric testing, online training (HCP100) and wearing hearing protection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud Products

Various methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, and digital processing of sky imagers. While each method has inherent advantages and disadvantages, none of these cloud-typing methods actually includes measurements of surface shortwave or longwave radiative fluxes. Here, a method that relies upon detailed, surface-based radiation and cloud measurements and derived data products to train a random-forest machine-learning cloud classification model is introduced. Measurements from five years of data from the ARM Southern Great Plains site were compiled to train and independently evaluate the model classification performance. A cloud-type accuracy of approximately 80% using the random-forest classifier reveals that the model is well suited to predict climatological cloud properties. Furthermore, an analysis of the cloud-type misclassifications is performed. While physical cloud types may be misreported, the shortwave radiative signatures are similar between misclassified cloud types. From this, we assert that the cloud-regime model has the capacity to successfully differentiate clouds with comparable cloud–radiative interactions. Therefore, we conclude that the model can provide useful cloud-property information for fundamental cloud studies, inform renewable energy studies, and be a tool for numerical model evaluation and parameterization improvement, among many other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaming the beamlines—employing reinforcement learning to maximize scientific outcomes at large-scale user facilities

Abstract Beamline experiments at central facilities are increasingly demanding of remote, high-throughput, and adaptive operation conditions. To accommodate such needs, new approaches must be developed that enable on-the-fly decision making for data intensive challenges. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a domain of AI that holds the potential to enable autonomous operations in a feedback loop between beamline experiments and trained agents. Here, we outline the advanced data acquisition and control software of the Bluesky suite, and demonstrate its functionality with a canonical RL problem: cartpole. We then extend these methods to efficient use of beamline resources by using RL to develop an optimal measurement strategy for samples with different scattering characteristics. The RL agents converge on the empirically optimal policy when under-constrained with time. When resource limited, the agents outperform a naive or sequential measurement strategy, often by a factor of 100%. We interface these methods directly with the data storage and provenance technologies at the National Synchrotron Light Source II, thus demonstrating the potential for RL to increase the scientific output of beamlines, and layout the framework for how to achieve this impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Human Supervision of Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations and Associated Passenger Communications: Preprint

Advances in automated vehicle (AV) technology and expanded operations are rapidly emerging with Automated Mobility District (AMD) deployments in global cities. NLR's AMD research addresses critical elements of human supervision of AV fleet operations and associated passenger communications for vehicles in which no driver or safety attendant is present. Although sufficiently advanced AVs no longer have direct oversight by a driver, fleet management remains staffed with operations personnel at the operations command and control (OCC) facility. This paper examines the functionality of the OCC, drawing comparisons of how automated train control and automated people mover OCCs operate. Within an AMD, the OCC manages various vehicle types, sizes, and operational modes, including on-demand and fixed route service, to facilitate a 'network of networks' for transport within a metropolitan area. The OCC serves as oversight for multiple AV fleets assisting AVs via remote operation of vehicles, communication, and dispatching personnel to resolve problems. The OCC also coordinates system operation, geographically staging vehicles, and managing weather, police, and emergency events. Informed by traffic management center (TMC) strategies using highly integrated software and communications, OCCs facilitate seamless information flows. OCC personnel remotely assist passengers and oversee multi-party operation to ensure safety and security. Although social norms mitigate large-capacity unattended vehicle operations, social interaction in multi-party automated small vehicles has little precedent. This poses a new frontier for society and requires research to effectively understand and manage. Future research will monitor OCC implementations, passenger interfaces, and deployment scaling of initial AMD systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Calibration Transfer Techniques for Remote Monitoring of Samarium and Europium in LiCl Using Laser-Induced Florescence Spectroscopy for Radioisotope Production Applications

Radioisotope production relies on complex chemical processes that must be performed in radiological hot cells or glove boxes because of the radioactive and otherwise hazardous materials being used. In these situations, optical sensors can provide real-time monitoring to users, which is unobtainable by more traditional methods. This study explores the use of calibration transfer methods to train a model on one instrument and date and then transfer it to another instrument of the same or different configuration on a different date. By performing laser-induced fluorescence measurements of Eu(III) and Sm(III) in 10 M LiCl over the course of 6 months using two disparate spectrometers and two different training sets, a strategy for calibrating and deploying models for online monitoring was established. Three transfer techniques were compared: direct standardization (DS), piecewise direct standardization (PDS), and external parameter orthogonalization (EPO). DS and PDS outperformed EPO for day-to-day transfers, and EPO was not effective for instrument-to-instrument transfers. Transferring the initial date’s full factorial model provided better prediction performance compared with retraining models the day of measurements using a D-optimal designed calibration set. For both day-to-day and instrument-to-instrument transfers, five Kennard–Stone selected samples were sufficient. Based on this choice, the initial-date, high-resolution spectrometer model was transferred to a lower-resolution, compact spectrometer 6 months later to monitor a simulated, real-time demonstration. Here, the combined predictions of the DS and PDS transferred models were able to accurately track the anticipated concentration profiles, maintaining root-mean-square error of prediction values below 10 ppm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Medication Regimen Recommendation for Parkinson’s Disease Using Sensor Technology

Parkinson’s disease medication treatment planning is generally based on subjective data obtained through clinical, physician-patient interactions. The Personal KinetiGraph™ (PKG) and similar wearable sensors have shown promise in enabling objective, continuous remote health monitoring for Parkinson’s patients. In this proof-of-concept study, we propose to use objective sensor data from the PKG and apply machine learning to cluster patients based on levodopa regimens and response. The resulting clusters are then used to enhance treatment planning by providing improved initial treatment estimates to supplement a physician’s initial assessment. We apply k-means clustering to a dataset of within-subject Parkinson’s medication changes—clinically assessed by the MDS-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale-III (MDS-UPDRS-III) and the PKG sensor for movement staging. A random forest classification model was then used to predict patients’ cluster allocation based on their respective demographic information, MDS-UPDRS-III scores, and PKG time-series data. Clinically relevant clusters were partitioned by levodopa dose, medication administration frequency, and total levodopa equivalent daily dose—with the PKG providing similar symptomatic assessments to physician MDS-UPDRS-III scores. A random forest classifier trained on demographic information, MDS-UPDRS-III scores, and PKG time-series data was able to accurately classify subjects of the two most demographically similar clusters with an accuracy of 86.9%, an F1 score of 90.7%, and an AUC of 0.871. A model that relied solely on demographic information and PKG time-series data provided the next best performance with an accuracy of 83.8%, an F1 score of 88.5%, and an AUC of 0.831, hence further enabling fully remote assessments. These computational methods demonstrate the feasibility of using sensor-based data to cluster patients based on their medication responses with further potential to assist with medication recommendations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hyperspectral remote sensing-based plant community map for region around NGEE-Arctic intensive research watersheds at Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

Using airborne hyperspectral remote sensing data from NASA Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer- Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) platforms in a region near NGEE-Arctic intensive watersheds at Seward peninsula of Alaska, high resolution (5m) maps of plant community distribution were developed and included in this data collected. AVIRIS-NG data collected over 2017-2019 period were used to develop deep neural networks, trained using vegetation plot observations collected at NGEE-Arctic watersheds at Kougarok, Council and Teller. A hierarchical vegetation classification scheme consisting of six classes at Level I, and 16 classes at Level II contained in two .txt files were used to developed the plant community maps for the region. Two geospatial raster data files (.tif) at both thematic levels are shared in this data collection. Data files in this collection use Alaska Albers Equal Area projection. Readme files available in three formats (*.html, *.md, *.pdf) and one *.png visualization map.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-Power Deep Learning Inference using the SpiNNaker Neuromorphic Platform

n this presentation we will discuss recent results on using the SpiNNaker neuromorphic platform (48-chip model) for deep learning neural network inference. We use the Sandia Labs developed Whet stone spiking deep learning library to train deep multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks suitable for the spiking substrate on the neural hardware architecture. By using the massively parallel nature of SpiNNaker, we are able to achieve, under certain network topologies, substantial network tiling and consequentially impressive inference throughput. Such high-throughput systems may have eventual application in remote sensing applications where large images need to be chipped, scanned, and processed quickly. Additionally, we explore complex topologies that push the limits of the SpiNNaker routing hardware and investigate how that impacts mapping software-implemented networks to on-hardware instantiations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging 3D CAD and Virtual Reality in Design of the Calcine Disposition Project - 20512

Fluor Idaho's Calcine Disposition Project (CDP) is leveraging the power of three-dimensional (3D) visualization, light detection and ranging (Lidar), and virtual reality to improve designs and worker safety. With the use of computer-aided design (CAD) modeling software, the CDP has created 3D models of the facility and systems to aid in the design, development, and operation of its retrieval and transfer system. This by itself is nothing new and has been done in industry for years. The CDP project however is taking this a few steps farther with the use of Lidar and virtual reality software. The CRP is tasked with removing a radioactive granular material from stainless steel bins located in concrete vaults that were constructed in the late 1950's and early 1960's. While construction drawings are available, it is not certain that the drawings are as-built or how accurate they truly are. Part of the project requires precise placement of equipment on to bins around multiple pipe, electrical lines, and bin stiffeners. Relying solely on the existing drawings and models created from these drawings is highly risky and prone to failure. The first step to determine the precise location and orientation of all obstructions in the vault the project will use a Lidar system to scan the vault structure and precisely locate all vault and bin components. Once this information is obtained, the data will be integrated into the CAD model. The model will then be verified, and a true as-built model developed. Precise component location, size, and orientation will be used for final design and placement of retrieval components. The second step will be to take the verified 3D model and scan data and import it into virtual reality software creating a virtual world. While some work on the project requires all work to be completed remotely due to high radiation fields, some areas have low enough radiation levels that personnel can enter and perform work. With the use of a virtual reality headset, operators and technicians will be able to enter our virtual world and become familiar with the surroundings and perform work prior to ever entering the radiation environment. This training is expected to pay dividends by improving worker efficiency, reducing errors, and improving confidence that the work can be performed as expected. It will play a key aspect in as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) principles. An additional aspect in using the Lidar scans and virtual environment, is that it will give engineers and managers an opportunity to revisit the facility, especially radiation areas, at any time to obtain design information and measurements that may be costly or impossible to obtain once the facility transitions into radiation operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

MULTI-MODAL global surveillance methodology for predictive and on-demand characterization of localized processes using cube satellite platforms and deep learning techniques

This paper presents the work completed towards the development of a multi-modal global surveillance methodology using cube satellite (CubeSat) platforms and novel data analysis techniques. A CubeSat system equipped with adequate sensors and data analytics capabilities can autonomously characterize various phenomena of interest on the Earth’s surface. CubeSats are advantageous over conventional satellites in certain remote monitoring applications because of their reduced construction costs (due to the availability of commercially-off-the-shelf components) and are easier to launch. The CubeSat surveillance system developed in this paper focused on phenomena of interest surrounding the nuclear fuel cycle in support of nuclear non-proliferation and emergency response. To observe the phenomena, a constellation of 3U and 6U CubeSats deployed from the ISS with adequate components was chosen. Four different sensor configurations were identified for remote sensing: panchromatic/multispectral in the visible and near-infrared spectrum, multispectral in infrared spectrum, hyperspectral in infrared spectrum, and multispectral in ultraviolet spectrum. While a panchromatic/multispectral sensor configuration has CubeSat flight heritage at the required spatial resolutions, the other three sensor types need future 3 development to meet signature and system requirements. Once each sensor onboard the CubeSat system collects data on a target of interest, the onboard computers would then apply the deep learning-based characterization methodology developed in this paper to identify phenomena. Four surrogate datasets containing representative simplified “images” were created for each sensor type to train the characterization methodology. A convolutional neural network was applied to each dataset and produced recall rates for the phenomena between 89.7% - 99.3% and precision rates between 92.3% - 99.9%. Each phenomenon’s presence probability from each network is then combined into a final characterization solution for a target area. This paper covers multiple interdisciplinary areas to develop the foundation for a CubeSat surveillance system focused on phenomena surrounding the nuclear fuel cycle.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying neptunium oxidation states in nitric acid through spectroelectrochemistry and chemometrics

Controlled-potential in situ thin-layer spectropotentiometry was leveraged to generate visible/near-infrared (VIS/NIR) absorption spectral data sets for the development of chemometric models to quantify Np(III/IV/V/VI) oxidation states in HNO 3 . This technology would be valuable in laboratory studies and when monitoring process solutions to guide feed adjustments for radiochemical separations—the performance of which depends on oxidation state. This approach successfully isolated and stabilized Np species in pure (~99%) oxidation states without compromising solution optical properties. Multivariate curve resolution–alternating least squares models were evaluated to resolve spectral and component concentrations from a scan that sequentially produced Np(VI), Np(V), Np(IV), and Np(III) spectra with mixtures of two valences at a time. Although it provided a useful approximation, the method was not able to quantitively resolve each component likely because of rotational ambiguity. Additionally, partial least squares regression models were built from artificial and electrochemically generated VIS/NIR spectral training sets to study the effect of interionic interactions on spectral characteristics. Models built with true Bi-chemical mixtures of coexisting Np oxidation states and spectra generated from additive combinations of pure end points had similar prediction performance. This methodology can be used to directly quantify Np concentration and the ratio of Np oxidation states and other actinides in remote settings such as hot cells.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep spectral CNN for laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

This work proposes a spectral convolutional neural network (CNN) operating on laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) signals to learn to (1) disentangle spectral signals from the sources of sensor uncertainty (i.e., pre-process) and (2) get qualitative and quantitative measures of chemical content of a sample given a spectral signal (i.e., calibrate). Once the spectral CNN is trained, it can accomplish either task through a single feed-forward pass, with real-time benefits and without any additional side information requirements including dark current, system response, temperature and detector-to-target range. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing approaches used by the Mars Science Lab for pre-processing and calibration for remote sensing observations from the Mars rover, ‘Curiosity’.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

Abstract Long‐range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here, we explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low‐level jet (LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross‐Pacific wave train. Using a causal effect network, we found that the time between BSISO‐related geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that the above‐normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains convection the following week.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Automatic Vector Data Alignment to Satellite Imagery

Given the tremendous volume of accessible Earth Observation (EO) data, there is a need to develop scalable Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) solutions for time-sensitive applications. Scalability in this context refers to rapidly processing large-scale EO data using high performance computing resources. Accurate mapping of the built environment from remote sensing (RS) imagery has been one of the crucial components in GeoAI workflows for a wide spectrum of humanitarian applications. Derived vector data of built environment is often leveraged for disaster preparedness and response activities. However, factors such as differences in ortho-rectification, atmospheric conditions and human error, results in spatial misalignment between vector data and the timely available RS imagery. Model training for downstream tasks such as object detection, change analysis, etc., is negatively impacted due to such spatial misalignment. Although there has been progress towards automatic alignment of vector data, the lack of scalability remains an open research challenge. This paper proposes to leverage parallel computing to optimize an automatic vector data alignment workflow. It further employs CPU-level multi-core parallelism for improving the performance of the workflow for scalable built environment mapping. We report observations and discuss findings from the preliminary experiments performed on the Summit Supercomputer.

Potnis, Abhishek↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approximation of ice phenology of Maine lakes using Aqua MODIS surface temperature data

Studies of lake ice phenology have historically relied on limited in situ data. Relatively few observations exist for ice out and fewer still for ice in, both of which are necessary to determine the temporal extent of ice cover. Satellite data provide an opportunity to better document patterns of ice phenology across landscapes and relate them to the climatological drivers behind changing ice phenology. We developed a model, the Cumulative Sum Method (CSM), that uses daytime and nighttime surface temperature observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Earth-observing Aqua satellite to approximate ice in (the onset of ice cover) and ice out from training datasets of 13 and 58 Maine lakes, respectively, during the 2002/2003 through 2017/2018 ice seasons. Ice in was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative negative degrees following the first day of the season below 0°C. Ice out was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative positive degrees following the first day of the year above 0°C. The comparison of observed and remotely sensed ice-in dates showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.8 days. Ice-out approximations had a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and an MAE of 8.8 days. Lakes smaller in surface area and nearer the Atlantic coast had the greatest error in approximation. Application of the CSM to 20 additional lakes in Maine produced a comparable ice-out MAE of 8.9 days. Ice-out model performance was weaker for the warmest years; there was a larger MAE of 12.0 days when the model was applied to the years 2019–2023 for the original 58 lakes. The development of this model, which utilizes daily satellite data, demonstrates the promise of remote sensing for quantifying ice phenology over short, temporal scales, and wider geographic regions than can be observed in situ, and allows exploration of the influence of surface temperature patterns on the process and timing of ice in and ice out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗