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At least 127 records · Page 7

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrating adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression to build interpretable surrogate models

Abstract We develop a materials informatics workflow to build an interpretable surrogate model for micromagnetic simulations. Our goal is to predict the energy barrier of a moving isolated skyrmion in rare-earth-free $$\hbox {Mn}_4$$ Mn 4 N. Our approach integrates adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression methods. We discuss an unexplored acquisition function (information condensing active learning) within the adaptive learning loop and compare it with the known standard deviation function for efficient navigation of the search space. Model-agnostic post hoc explanation techniques then uncover trends learned by the trained model, which we then leverage to constrain the expressions used for symbolic regression. Graphical abstract

Biswas, Ankita↗

Physics Model For The Agn-201 Dt

The surrogate model is a Gaussian Process Regression model based on sci-kit learn. The model takes the coarse and fine control rod position, along with the temperature of the reactor, and produces a corresponding k-eff value. Given k-eff over time, deviations can be determine and flagged for review at a later date.

Stewart, RyanH. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Empirical Estimation of Shortest Route Length along U.S. Interstate Highways Based on Great Circle Distance

In this study, 98 regression models were specified for easily estimating shortest distances based on great circle distances along the U.S. interstate highways nationwide and for each of the continental 48 states. This allows transportation professionals to quickly generate distance, or even distance matrix, without expending significant efforts on complicated shortest path calculations. For simple usage by all professionals, all models are present in the simple linear regression form. Only one explanatory variable, the great circle distance, is considered to calculate the route distance. For each geographic scope (i.e., the national or one of the states), two different models were considered, with and without the intercept. Based on the adjusted R-squared, it was observed that models without intercepts generally have better fitness. Additionally, all these models generally have good fitness with the linear regression relationship between the great circle distance and route distance. At the state level, significant variations in the slope coefficients between the state-level models were also observed. Furthermore, a preliminary analysis of the effect of highway density on this variation was conducted.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air Passengers' Joint Decisions about Ground Access and Parking

With increasing air travel demand, it is important for airports to evaluate infrastructure investment and demand management solutions to curb traffic congestion and minimize landside energy consumption. Understanding the decisions and choices air passengers make about their ground access modes is important for both developing infrastructure planning strategies and assessing the impacts of emerging modes on airport revenues, particularly from parking. But parking choice is often overlooked in the modeling of airport ground access choices. To address this gap, NREL's Athena team developed a nested multinomial logit regression model based on a passenger survey conducted at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport in 2015. This fact sheet is an overview of the approach and its impact.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Physical Interpretation of Early Battery Life Prediction Models

Early battery life prediction models are most useful for R&D if they help us understand the early changes in battery electrochemical response that correspond with long-term degradation and failure. Linear regression models such as Fused lasso and Partial Least Squares can fit coefficients directly to high-dimensional electrochemical data like capacity-voltage and ΔV–state-of-charge, i.e., Q(V) and ΔV(SOC) curves, learning coefficients that can be physically interpreted. We leverage the ISU-ILCC battery aging data set to learn high-dimensional coefficients for early battery life prediction from traditional slow-rate capacity check data, demonstrating learning on Q(V), d Q· d V −1 , and ΔV(SOC) curves. A thorough study on the dependence of coefficient values on train/test size and data preprocessing methods is made, demonstrating the reliability of high-dimensional regression approaches unless very small amounts of data are used for model training. For this data set, coefficients from Q(V) and d Q· d V −1 models highlight changes in electrode stoichiometry due to lithium loss, while ΔV(SOC) coefficients highlight changes in positive electrode diffusivity due to particle cracking as well as electrode stoichiometry shifts. By directly interpreting the coefficients of a regression model, we make physical insights into battery degradation mechanisms without requiring the assumptions of traditional battery data analysis methods.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C

This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Three-Stage Adjusted Regression Forecasting for Software Defect Prediction

In this paper, a three-stage adjusted regression forecasting model is proposed to forecast the local regression model [6]. This is a growth curve approximation model that predicts the parameters for a future linear model based on a sliding window of previous linear models. The three stages of the model are as follows: • Initial fit: train regression models on a sliding window of the date and record model coefficients. • Prediction: fit new regression models to the coefficient lists and predict the value of the next coefficient. • Error correction: correct coefficient prediction error using the residual of the last point of the coefficient list and moving average. The resulting model from the multi-stage process is a forecast of the local regression model that represents the future window of data and is referred to as the predicted line. Results suggest the three-stage model demonstrates better prediction capability compared to existing solutions.

Pritchard, Shadow↗

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cycle-by-cycle Delay Estimation at Signalized Intersections by using Machine Learning and Simulated Video Detection Data

Accurate estimation of delay is crucial for efficient traffic signal operations. Estimation of delay in the real-time manner using traditional loop detectors requires advanced detectors (in addition to stop-bar detection). In cases when this detection layout is not in place, delay estimates are approximated with a lower accuracy. Video detection is one of the most frequently deployed detection systems at signalized intersections in recent years. In most cases video detection operates in the same way as traditional inductive loops. However, when coupled with computer vision algorithms, video detection systems could be used to retrieve additional information (e.g., vehicular arrivals and departures) that cannot be taken out from the conventional systems (e.g., long stop-bar loop detectors). Although present for several decades, video detection data were not frequently examined for delay estimation purposes. In this study, we proposed a novel delay estimation model which can be developed with only data from stop-bar video detectors. Relevant data were collected from a simulation model of 11 signalized intersections at downtown Chattanooga, TN and processed to create needed inputs for model development. With the use of multigene genetic programming the authors developed a delay model that outperforms accuracy of multi regression model. Furthermore, authors evaluated the developed model by comparison with the other benchmark delay models, such as HCM and approach delay model. It was found that the developed MGGP delay model outperforms benchmark models for a wide range of traffic and signal operation conditions.

Erdagi, Ismet Goksad↗

Can machine learning predict fuel properties accurately?

High-potential molecules derived from biomass sources may suitably replace or supplement traditional nonrenewable hydrocarbon fuels to reduce pollution and fuel processing cost. Experimental property testing of these bioproducts is usually conducted years after initial bench-scale experiments, due to high experimental costs and/or high volume requirements. However, neglecting to conduct property testing early in the pathway development cycle can lead to investments spent on scaling-up production of bioproducts and biofuels that do not perform as expected. Instead, machine-learning techniques can be used to develop quantitative structure–property relationships for molecules using a relatively large training set of molecular descriptor data. For this study, we compiled measured properties, IR spectra, and molecular descriptors of bio-based molecules from databases and published studies for training models of bioproduct properties. We trained regression models with molecular descriptors and will compare results of different estimators. This study describes the first steps towards a performance prediction tool for bio-based alternative fuels. Keywords: Machine learning, biofuels, jet fuels, fuel properties

Mayer, Morgan A.↗

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

How Generalizable is a Machine-Learning Approach for Modeling Hub-Height Turbulence Intensity?

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigao field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigao or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗