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At least 127 records · Page 7

Forecasted Dynamic Line Ratings for Regional Transmission Lines

This report was prepared for the Wind Energy Technology Office for the FY 2022, quarter 3 deliverable. This details the use of forecasted dynamic line rating as an improvement over static rating for three transmission lines in three regions of interest. A selection of wind plants across Idaho, the Columbia River Gorge and offshore wind in the NYSERDA territory were modeled for their concurrent cooling effects for dynamic line rating. Regional transmission lines for the wind plant interconnections were determined and a CFD domain was created to determine local wind flows over the lines. A dynamic line rating for each of the lines was calculated for both weather observation data and HRRR model forecast data. The comparison of peaks in the wind power production were compared to the DLR peaks. It was determined that for shorter regional transmission lines, the effect of concurrent cooling that commonly occur with gen-tie lines were still valid. Concurrent cooling effects drop as the length of the regional transmission lines increase in distance from the wind plants. In addition, the accuracy of the forecasted ampacity to the weather observation data for ampacity was assessed. In general, the accuracy was best for the INL region with the NOAA-maintained sites. The Columbia River Gorge and Long Island sites showed similar levels of accuracy for the forecasted DLR. The accuracy levels were around 11% for the INL region, 15% for Columbia River Gorge and 7% for New York Long Island. The higher error for the Columbia Gorge region is likely due to the sparse availability of weather stations available, whereas both the INL site and Long Island are well instrumented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predicting Missing Regions in Charged Particle Tracks Using a Sparse 3D Convolutional Neural Network

The 2x2 Demonstrator is a prototype detector for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)'s Near Detector. Both the 2x2 Demonstrator and the Near Detector itself will have inactive regions wherein there is no sensitivity to charge deposition and light signals that arise from charged particle interactions with liquid argon. In the 2x2, these inactive regions are positioned in-between the active detector modules, which introduces the challenge of inferring what charge signals ought to look like in these regions. This study explores the use of a Sparse 3D Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) to infer missing regions in charged particle tracks. Hits corresponding to energy depositions are voxelized into a three-dimensional (3D) grid for each track. Inactive regions within the tracks are replaced with a dense, rectangular 3D grid of voxels, ensuring consistent step sizes in X, Y, and Z directions. Voxels in these dense regions are initialized with an energy value of -1, indicating nonphysical energy or charge. The model is trained to predict which voxels should activate as part of the track and which should not, with the goal of eventually inferring the missing charge or energy values in these voxels. Results indicate that the model accurately predicts track voxels within 1 unit in X, Y, or Z directions and effectively identifies non-track voxels, despite some overprediction. The approach shows promise in prediction of missing track regions with some accuracy.

Utaegbulam, Hilary↗

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

Probing the D-region ionosphere globally with Earth Networks Total Lightning Network data

An existing technique to use broadband lightning waveforms to probe the D-region ionosphere (60–90 km altitude) is shown to be extendable to a global scale using the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). This paper demonstrates the technique in detail on a region of the Southeastern United States. This demonstration shows that diurnal D-region height variation and smaller time-scale variations on the order of tens of minutes to hours are evident in the measurement. The technique is then extended to three additional global regions on this same day: Northeastern U.S., India, and Japan. The diurnal behavior between these different regions is compared to a D-region model from the International Reference Ionosphere.

D-region ionosphere↗

Overestimated Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Eddy‐Rich Regions Simulated by Eddy‐Resolving Global Ocean–Sea Ice Models

Abstract The performance of eddy‐resolving global ocean–sea ice models in simulating mesoscale eddies is evaluated using six eddy‐resolving experiments forced by different atmospheric reanalysis products. Interestingly, eddy‐resolving ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) tend to simulate more (less) energetic eddy‐rich (eddy‐poor) regions with a smaller (larger) spatial extent than satellite observation, which finally shows that larger (smaller) mesoscale energy intensity (EI) is simulated in the eddy‐rich (eddy‐poor) regions. Quantitatively, there is an approximately 27%–60% overestimation of EI in the eddy‐rich regions, which are mainly located in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension, the Gulf Stream, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents regions, although the global mean EI is underestimated by 25%–45%. Apparently, the eddy kinetic energy in the eddy‐poor region is underestimated. Further analyses based on coherent mesoscale eddy properties show that the overestimation in the eddy‐rich regions is mainly attributed to mesoscale eddies’ intensity and is more prominent when mesoscale eddies are in their growth stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

The 2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected information about household and individual travel patterns for residents throughout a four-county region in Washington State. Study results were used to update the region's travel and land-use models and to calibrate local traffic and travel models. The study also helped the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) and its regional partners develop plans that accommodate the diverse travel needs and preferences of residents. The Resource Systems Group administered the study on behalf of PSRC. Global positioning system (GPS)-equipped smartphones were used to provide data pertaining to the daily travel of 547 individual participants. Because the region's university students may have been underrepresented in the initial 2014 household travel study, the PSRC added a college-population travel survey in fall 2014. In spring 2015, a second household data collection effort was conducted to increase the frequency of data collection and to collect GPS data as well as a sample of longitudinal data from households that completed the 2014 survey.

1Hz data↗

Ammonia in northeast Colorado is increasing, rising most quickly in regions close to confined animal feeding operations

The Colorado Front Range urban corridor and nearby agricultural operations are important source regions of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ). Upslope flows periodically transport these emissions into Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), located 50 km west of the urban corridor, where wet and dry deposition of excess reactive nitrogen (N) impacts ecosystems. Here, we use a combination of in situ passive NH 3 measurements and NH 3 vertical column density retrievals from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) to assess variability and changes in NH 3 across three land use categories in the northeast Colorado source region (agricultural, urban, and remote) during the period 2013-2023. A strong seasonal cycle is present across the region with increased NH 3 during summer months. Elevated NH 3 is spatially correlated with the number of permitted animal units in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) within 12 km. Ground-level NH 3 concentrations are strongly positively correlated with monthly gridded IASI satellite column densities. Satellite retrievals reveal an increasing trend in NH 3 column amounts of ∼3% per year in agricultural and ∼2% per year in urban sub-regions. The magnitude of the trend observed in NH 3 columns averaged over the agricultural sub-region is > 3 times larger than observed near and over Denver. The largest increases in NH 3 are closely aligned with the distribution of CAFOs. Reductions in particle sulfate associated with declining sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions could account for only ∼0.1% per year increase in gaseous NH 3 . Wildfire smoke across the region has increased but appears unlikely to explain the majority of the observed NH 3 increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Estimating region-specific fuel economy in the United States from real-world driving cycles

Here we describe a method for estimating region-specific real-world light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States that is unique in both the size and representativeness of real-world driving that was considered, and for its ability to model regional variations in driving patterns. Over one million miles of national driving data were used to select real-world cycles representative of observed trip categories. The six cycles were compared to U.S. legislative cycles, revealing some key differences. Finally, a set of cycle weighting factors for 533 separate U.S. regions was derived from annual traffic statistics. Applying this method, it was found that regional fuel economy varies due to differences in driving patterns alone and that rural driving patterns lead to improved fuel economy (for conventional vehicles). The driving cycles and regional weighting factors described here are useful for testing and simulation studies, specifically those sensitive to regional variations in driving patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Atmospheric Research Over the Extended Western North Atlantic Ocean Region and North American East Coast: A Review of Past Work and Challenges Ahead

Decades of atmospheric research have focused on the extended Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) region, including the East Coast of North America and the island of Bermuda, because of its unique location that offers accessibility, gradients in important atmospheric parameters, and a range of meteorological regimes leading to diverse conditions that are poorly understood. This work reviews decades of scientific investigations for the extended WNAO region. Approximately 40 combined field campaigns and long-term monitoring programs, in addition to 563 peer-reviewed publications between 1950 and 2019 have provided a firm foundation of knowledge for the extended WNAO region. Of particular importance in this region has been extensive work at the island of Bermuda that is host to important time series records of oceanic and atmospheric variables. Our review categorizes WNAO research into eight major categories, with some studies fitting into multiple categories (relative %): Aerosols (26%), Gases (23%), Development/Validation of Techniques, Models, and Retrievals (17%), Meteorology and Transport (10%), Air-Sea Interactions (9%), Wet Deposition (6%), Clouds/Storms (6%), and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (3%). These extensive works have revealed a series of major knowledge gaps. For instance, a disproportionately low number of studies have been devoted to aerosol-cloud interactions, which is identified here as one of the most pressing research needs for the extended WNAO region. Recommendations for future research are provided in the categories highlighted above. Part 2 of this paper series will summarize major spatial and temporal features for the extended WNAO region.

Sorooshian, Armin↗

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correlation between the gas-phase metallicity and ionization parameter in extragalactic H II regions

The variations of the metallicity and ionization parameter in H II regions are usually thought to be the dominant factors that produce the variations we see in the observed emission line spectra. There is an increasing amount of evidence that these two quantities are physically correlated, although the exact form of this correlation is debatable in the literature. Simulated emission line spectra from photoionized clouds provide important clues about the physical conditions of H II regions and are frequently used for deriving metallicities and ionization parameters. Through a systematic investigation on the assumptions and methodology used in applying photoionization models, we find that the derived correlation has a strong dependence on the choice of model parameters. On the one hand, models that give consistent predictions over multiple emission-line ratios yield a positive correlation between the metallicity and ionization parameter for the general population of H II regions or star-forming galaxies. On the other hand, models that are inconsistent with the data locus in high-dimensional line ratio space yield discrepant correlations when different subsets of line ratios are used in the derivation. The correlation between the metallicity and ionization parameter has a secondary dependence on the surface density of the star formation rate (SFR), with the higher SFR regions showing a higher ionization parameter but weaker correlations. The existence of the positive correlation contradicts the analytical wind-driven bubble model for H II regions. We explore assumptions in both dynamical models and photoionization models, and conclude that there is a potential bias associated with the geometry. However, this is still insufficient to explain the correlation. Mechanisms that suppress the dynamical influence of stellar winds in realistic H II regions might be the key to solving this puzzle, though more sophisticated combinations of dynamical models and photoionization models to test are required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

Abstract The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tagging efficiency study of incoherent diffractive vector meson production at the second interaction region at the Electron-Ion Collider

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is an upcoming accelerator facility aimed at exploring the properties of quarks and gluons in nucleons and nuclei, shedding light on their structure and dynamics. The inaugural experimental apparatus, ePIC (electron-Proton and Ion Collider), is designed as a general-purpose detector to address the National Academy of Sciences and the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee physics program at the EIC. The wider EIC community is strongly supporting a second interaction region and an associated second detector to enhance the full science program. In this study, we evaluate how this second interaction region and detector can be complementary to ePIC. The layout of an interaction region for the second detector offers a secondary focus that provides better forward detector acceptance at scattering angles near θ ~ 0 mrad, which can specifically enhance the exclusive, tagging, and diffractive physics program. Here, this article presents an analysis of a tagging program using the second interaction region layout with incoherent diffractive vector meson production. The current design of the second EIC interaction region is evaluated for its vetoing capabilities of incoherent events required for the study of coherent diffractive measurements. We find an increased vetoing performance compared to the ePIC interaction region, thus improving measurements which are important for the spatial imaging of nucleons and nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Atomic structures determined from digitally defined nanocrystalline regions

Nanocrystallography has transformed our ability to interrogate the atomic structures of proteins, peptides, organic molecules and materials. By probing atomic level details in ordered sub-10 nm regions of nanocrystals, scanning nanobeam electron diffraction extends the reach of nanocrystallography and in principle obviates the need for diffraction from large portions of one or more crystals. Scanning nanobeam electron diffraction is now applied to determine atomic structures from digitally defined regions of beam-sensitive peptide nanocrystals. Using a direct electron detector, thousands of sparse diffraction patterns over multiple orientations of a given crystal are recorded. Each pattern is assigned to a specific location on a single nanocrystal with axial, lateral and angular coordinates. This approach yields a collection of patterns that represent a tilt series across an angular wedge of reciprocal space: a scanning nanobeam diffraction tomogram. Using this diffraction tomogram, intensities can be digitally extracted from any desired region of a scan in real or diffraction space, exclusive of all other scanned points. Intensities from multiple regions of a crystal or from multiple crystals can be merged to increase data completeness and mitigate missing wedges. It is demonstrated that merged intensities from digitally defined regions of two crystals of a segment from the OsPYL/RCAR5 protein produce fragment-based ab initio solutions that can be refined to atomic resolution, analogous to structures determined by selected-area electron diffraction. In allowing atomic structures to now be determined from digitally outlined regions of a nanocrystal, scanning nanobeam diffraction tomography breaks new ground in nanocrystallography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model (ROAMS) v2.0

The Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model is a tool to convert the results of wide-area, source-resolved aerial methane remote sensing surveys of oil and natural gas infrastructure in a given region into methane emissions inventories (estimates of the magnitude and breakdown of methane emissions from the surveyed infrastructure). The tool leverages databases of source-resolved methane emissions detected in aerial surveys, aerial survey coverage information (which areas were measured and when), data summarizing surveyed oil and natural gas infrastructure and production (derived from third-party databases), as well as state-of-the-art mechanistic emissions simulation tools to characterize emissions too small for the aerial system to see. The regional methane emissions estimates produced by this tool are much more granular in both space and asset type than common satellite- or flux tower-based regional estimates. Unlike other tools for converting site-level measurements into regional emissions estimates, our unique geostatistical approach integrates aerially measured emissions with limited need for statistical extrapolation, which can be highly sensitive to modeler assumptions. As a result, ROAMS-based estimates of regional methane emissions from oil and gas activity are widely viewed as highly credible, as evidenced by the success of Dr. Sherwin's recent paper in Nature.

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗