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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Biopower: Impact of Biofuels Deployment to Replace Petroleum Liquids in Stationary Power Applications

Petroleum-based liquids are used in a portion of power generation applications in the United States, predominantly in the New England, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Pacific-Noncontiguous regions. Power plants that burn petroleum liquids, such as distillate or residual fuel oils, are generally used for short periods to accommodate peak electricity demands. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the U.S. consumption of petroleum liquids for electricity generation at 27 million barrels in 2018, representing a cost of $2.4 billion annually. This study assesses the potential to displace all or part of the petroleum liquids in U.S. power generation with biofuels. The biofuels for this application are assumed to be derived from terrestrial feedstocks, with conversion routes of both fast pyrolysis (bio-oil) and hydrothermal liquefaction (bio-crude). Regional models were used to assess the availability and cost of three different base materials: clean wood, forest residues, and corn stover; each was evaluated in the laboratory at small or experimental scales for conversion to bio-oil or bio-crude. The estimated biofuel production quantities depend on equivalent heating versus the current heavy fuel. In this report, the availability of each type of biomass for each section of the U.S. Census division is estimated using a conservative broker price (in each case) of $ 80 per dry tonne. The results show that the petroleum-liquid power generation in each of the Census Divisions could be supplied by one or more of the feedstocks evaluated. For all regions, clean wood supplies (only) could provide ample supply. For all but two regions (Middle Atlantic and New England), forest residues alone are sufficient. Finally, for all regions but three (Middle Atlantic, New England, and South Atlantic), corn stover alone is adequate. The Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) of bio-oil and bio-crude were also estimated for each feedstock type and Census Division. This analysis showed that fast pyrolysis bio-oil projections to be lower (14% on average) than current wholesale petroleum-based heating oil prices in each of the regions, assuming 100 dry tonnes/day processing capacity. However, bio-crude predictions were significantly higher (2X) in all cases. The effect of biorefinery size was also quantified. Based on the preliminary results in this study, it is apparent the biofuels could be an economical alternative for current petroleum liquids in U.S. power generation. However, additional research is needed to determine the necessary biofuel characteristics to support existing generation equipment. It is recommended that both power generation and biofuel production stakeholders to be engaged to outline the research and testing needed to identify the technical hurdles to enable the opportunity.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition in the Amazon (Final Report)

The frequent and extensive deep cloud formations over the Amazon Basin provide a vast area of atmospheric heating in the Tropics, forcing large-scale global circulations on daily to secular time scales. Motivated by the importance of these systems to the global climate system and the well-documented seasonal cycle in rainfall over the Amazon Basin, this study focused on improving understanding of the processes governing these systems on seasonal time scales and their impact on the typical growth of convection from early afternoon through evening, termed the shallow-to-deep transition. This study is based on observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) near Manacapuru, Brazil collected during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015, together with total column water vapor (CWV) and surface meteorological observations from a dense Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network within 50 km of the AMF site provided by the CHUVA Program collected in coordination with the GOAmazon campaign. The specific objectives of this study were to address the following questions: 1) What environmental conditions support the shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Central Amazon? 2) How does the relative importance of these conditions compare during the wet and dry seasons? 3) How are these conditions modulated by basin-scale transient forcing? 4) How well are these processes captured by regional model simulations convective resolving scale? Our main hypothesis was that intra-seasonal atmospheric disturbances were a primary driver of rainfall during the wet season in the Central Amazon, while localized surface heating of the land was the primary driver of enhanced rainfall during the dry season. Overall, our findings supported our hypothesis, with the convectively active phase of atmospheric Kelvin waves strongly favoring the development of larger, more organized rain systems during the wet season, while localized isolated deep convection dominated the types of rain events seen during the dry season. These results have implications for the predictability of rainfall over the Central Amazon and for its representation in climate and weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Suspended and Restored Activities of a Nearby Supermassive Black Hole

The discovery of spectral type transition of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), the so-called “changing-look” (CL) phenomenon, challenges the widely accepted AGN paradigm, not only in the orientation-based unified model, but also in the standard disk model. In past decades, only a couple of nearby repeat changing-look active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) have been identified. Here we report spectroscopic observations of UGC 3223 over the course of 18 yr, from 2001 onwards. Combining the spectrum taken in 1987 by Stirpe, we have witnessed its type transitions from 1.5→2.0→1.8 over 32 yr, and captured a long-lived (at least 10 yr) thorough “turn-off” state with a spectrum typical of a Seyfert 2 galaxy. The long-term thorough turn-off state probably suggests a once-dormant and an awakening central engine in UGC 3223. We argue that the (dis)appearance of the broad Balmer emission lines can be explained by the disk–wind broad-line region model given the evolution of the calculated Eddington ratio of accretion of the supermassive black hole.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fleet Algorithm Design for Pooled Rideshare: Integrating Human Factors, Simulation, and Optimization

This dissertation explores the study the integration of human factors modeling and rideshare fleet control algorithms. Pooled rideshare is a unique transportation mode offering that allows riders increased flexibility and accessibility over public transportation, and decreased cost relative to personal vehicles or traditional rideshare. Additionally, relative to personal vehicles, pooled rideshare offers reduced costs and options for those with difficulty obtaining transportation. Prior research in the space typically focused on modeling human behavior, or optimizing system performance, but a lack of integration of the concepts leads to unrealistic or underutilized outcomes. To tackle this problem, novel rideshare assignment, and repositioning strategies were designed and implemented in a simulation environment. Through a series of successive studies, improvements to current rideshare processes were identified, and beneficial outcomes for profitability, accessibility, and traffic were explored. Further, improved metrics to assess rideshare performance were designed and analyzed in the context of improved rideshare offerings. This research contributes to the field of transportation by tackling novel but pragmatic approaches to challenges facing the rideshare industry. Through the course of this dissertation, rideshares impacts on users, operators, and even regulators will be explored in detail. The justification behind the use of a simulation environment, a set of simulated regional models for testing, and the focus on realism and deployability is illustrated. The research identifies holes in potential markets for the use of both private, and public rideshare systems.

Paul, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of current and emerging technologies in meeting Japan’s mid- to long-term carbon reduction goals

Using Japan as a proxy for a developed nation, we investigated the role of existing and nascent technologies in curbing carbon emissions. We simulated possible pathways to meeting 2030 and 2050 emission targets within the Japanese electricity supply sector using a single-region model in The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES). Critically, our simulations incorporate novel technologies like hydrogen electrolysers, carbon capture, photochemical water splitting, and emerging photovoltaic cells, assess long-term impacts up to the year 2100, and include life-cycle emissions and learning curves for parameters such as investment cost, efficiency, and emission coefficients. Results indicate that a hybrid approach, using nuclear power and hydrogen from renewable energy-based electrolysis, is cost-effective and provides long-term emission reduction along with energy security. Finally, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydrogen from renewables emerge as key emission reduction technologies, while natural gas with carbon capture plays a minor role in achieving emission reduction targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Island Rainfall Enhancement in the Maritime Continent

Abstract The hypothesis that the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC) enhance total rainfall and time‐mean upward motion is tested using a convection‐permitting regional model. Sensitivity experiments with the islands removed greatly diminish both rainfall and upward motion, supporting the hypothesis. We examine the individual factors in this enhancement, isolating the impacts of the diurnal cycle from those of basic‐state (i.e., constant) forcing of orography and the land surface. We find that the basic‐state forcing by land is the only factor that substantially enhances total island rainfall, specifically through the enhancement of mean surface heat fluxes. The diurnal cycle and orographic forcing, however, substantially enhance rainfall in the seas surrounding the islands. Moreover, the diurnal cycle is found to be essential for promoting mesoscale circulations on the spatial scales of the islands, which are critical to both the upscale growth of deep convection and the most extreme rainfall rates.

Ruppert, Jr., James H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effects of African Easterly Wave Suppression by Wave Track on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract It is well established that African easterly waves (AEWs) can serve as seedling disturbances for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). However, research has shown that AEWs are not necessary to maintain specifically basin‐wide TC frequency. Here, we for the first time investigate the effects of AEW suppression by wave track on Atlantic TC activity. Regional model simulations were performed, where AEWs were either prescribed or suppressed from the eastern lateral boundary condition. We found that without AEWs, there was an increase in TC frequency and strength, with the most pronounced increases occurring when the waves were suppressed in the south track. These changes coincided with more favorable environmental conditions and disturbances associated with increased convective activity over the Atlantic. Our results indicate that AEWs are not a limiting factor for TCs, and that AEW suppression, specifically in the south track, can affect the large‐scale environment to enhance favorability for TC genesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drivers of Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis: African Easterly Waves and the Environment

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable environmental conditions and an initial disturbance, which, in the North Atlantic, is often an African easterly wave (AEW). Although studies have examined how AEWs and the environment affect TC genesis, their relative importance is less understood. Here, we examine whether AEW strength or sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the primary drivers of TC genesis. Regional model simulations were performed to address how increased AEW strength and SSTs affect the frequency of AEWs that develop into TCs in a year with below‐average TCs with AEW origins and SSTs. We found that environmental favorability plays a larger role than AEW strength in driving the frequency of TCs with AEW origins. Strengthening the AEWs did not affect the frequency of AEWs that develop into TCs due to low environmental favorability. Warmer SSTs led to increased environmental favorability and a statistically significant increase in TCs with AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily [Climate and Ecosystem Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Diurnal Cycle of Insolation on the MJO Propagation in the Maritime Continent

The diurnal cycle of convection in the Maritime Continent (MC) has been hypothesized to act as a barrier to the eastward propagation of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO). To test this hypothesis, we use a regional model with realistic MJO to simulate an event from the boreal spring of 2013 that weakened and stalled over the MC. Two simulations are conducted: one that includes the diurnal cycle of insolation (CTL), and another without it (NO_DC). The MJO in the simulations was identified and tracked using a large‐scale precipitation tracking method that distinguishes propagation and non‐propagation unlike the usual Real‐time Multivariate MJO method. In the NO_DC simulation, the absence of diurnal heating reduces land precipitation, allowing more continuous eastward MJO propagation. An analysis of moist static energy budget reveals that MJO maintenance in NO_DC is due to increased longwave heating and reduced advection, whereas the persistent MJO propagation in NO_DC is due to increased advection and reduced longwave heating and surface latent heat flux. These processes, however, may vary across different parts of the MC, emphasizing the complexity of MJO propagation across the MC.

Zhou, Xin [National Center for Atmospheric Researc↗
DOE OSTI2022

Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China

Record rainfall and severe flooding struck eastern China in the summer of 2020. The extreme summer rainfall occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in early 2020 and spread rapidly across the globe. By disrupting human activities, substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols might have affected regional precipitation in many ways. Here, we investigate such connections and show that the abrupt emissions reductions during the pandemic strengthened the summer atmospheric convection over eastern China, resulting in a positive sea level pressure anomaly over northwestern Pacific Ocean. The latter enhanced moisture convergence to eastern China and further intensified rainfall in that region. Modeling experiments show that the reduction in aerosols had a stronger impact on precipitation than the decrease of greenhouse gases did. We conclude that through abrupt emissions reductions, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed importantly to the 2020 extreme summer rainfall in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified theoretical framework for black carbon mixing state allows greater accuracy of climate effect estimation

Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in the climate system because of its strong warming effect, yet the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain owing to the complex mixing state of aerosols. Here we build a unified theoretical framework to describe BC’s mixing states, linking dynamic processes to BC coating thickness distribution, and show its self-similarity for sites in diverse environments. The size distribution of BC-containing particles is found to follow a universal law and is independent of BC core size. A new mixing state module is established based on this finding and successfully applied in global and regional models, which increases the accuracy of aerosol climate effect estimations. Our theoretical framework links observations with model simulations in both mixing state description and light absorption quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy-conserving coupled trajectory mixed quantum–classical dynamics

The coupled-trajectory mixed quantum–classical method (CTMQC), derived from the exact factorization approach, has successfully predicted photo-chemical dynamics in a number of interesting molecules, capturing population transfer and decoherence from first principles. Furthermore, due to the approximations made, CTMQC does not guarantee energy conservation. We propose a modified algorithm, CTMQC-E, which redefines the integrated force in the coupled-trajectory term so to restore energy conservation, and demonstrate its accuracy on scattering in Tully’s extended coupling region model and photoisomerization in a retinal chromophore model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating cross-field particle transport at the outer midplane of TCV by tracking filaments with machine learning

Abstract Cross-field transport of particles in the boundary region of magnetically confined fusion plasmas is dominated by turbulence. Blobs, intermittent turbulent structures with large amplitude and a filamentary shape appearing in the scrape-off layer (SOL), are known from theoretical and experimental studies to be the main contributor to the cross-field particle transport. The dynamics of blobs differs depending on various plasma conditions, including triangularity ( δ ). In this work, we analyze triangularity dependence of the cross-field particle transport at the outer midplane of plasmas with δ = + 0.38 , +0.15, −0.14, and −0.26 on the Tokamak à Configuration Variable, using our novel machine learning (ML) blob-tracking approach applied to gas puff imaging data. The cross-field particle flux determined in this way is of the same order as the overall transport inferred from KN1D, GBS, and SOLPS-ITER simulations, suggesting that the blobs identified by the ML blob-tracking account for most of the cross-field particle transport in the SOL. Also, the ML blob-tracking and KN1D show a decrease in the cross-field particle transport as δ becomes more negative. The blob-by-blob analysis of the result from the tracking reveals that the decrease of cross-field particle transport with decreasing δ is accompanied by a decrease in the number of blobs in a fixed time, which tend to have larger area and lower radial speed. Also, the blobs in these plasmas are in the connected sheath regime, and show a velocity scaling consistent with the two-region model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The effect of African Easterly Wave suppression by periodicity on Atlantic tropical cyclones

Research has shown that suppressing African Easterly Waves (AEWs) does not reduce basin-wide North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) frequency but can enhance TC environmental favorability. We investigated the AEW-TC relationship further by examining the effects of suppressing the two AEW periodicities individually on TC activity. Using regional model simulations, AEWs were prescribed or suppressed in the 2–6 d or 6–10 d ranges through the lateral boundary conditions. Seasonal TC frequency increased significantly when either AEW periodicity was suppressed, with a larger increase when the 2–6 d waves were suppressed. We also found that suppressing the 2–6 d waves increased mid-tropospheric moisture by up to 8%, as well as overall atmospheric instability, near the western coast of northern Africa. Furthermore, the convective disturbances that developed into TCs exhibited stronger rotation, increased ascending motion, and higher rainfall. Our results suggest that reduced 2–6 d AEW activity may trigger a more active TC season.

Danso, Derrick K↗