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DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of event position reconstruction based on diffusion in the NEXT-white detector

Noble element time projection chambers are a leading technology for rare event detection in physics, such as for dark matter and neutrinoless double beta decay searches. Time projection chambers typically assign event position in the drift direction using the relative timing of prompt scintillation and delayed charge collection signals, allowing for reconstruction of an absolute position in the drift direction. In this paper, alternate methods for assigning event drift dis tance via quantification of electron diffusion in a pure high pressure xenon gas time projection chamber are explored. Data from the NEXT-White detector demonstrate the ability to achieve good position assignment accuracy for both high and low-energy events. Using point-like energy deposits from 83m Kr calibration electron captures (E ~ 45 keV), the position of origin of low-energy events is determined to 2 cm precision with bias < 1 mm. A convolutional neural network approach is then used to quantify diffusion for longer tracks (E ≥ 1.5 MeV), from radiogenic electrons, yielding a precision of 3 cm on the event barycenter. The precision achieved with these methods indicates the feasibility energy calibrations of better than 1% FWHM at Q ββ in pure xenon, as well as the potential for event fiducialization in large future detectors using an alternate method that does not rely on primary scintillation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

$$\alpha $$-event characterization and rejection in point-contact HPGe detectors

Abstract P-type point contact (PPC) HPGe detectors are a leading technology for rare event searches due to their excellent energy resolution, low thresholds, and multi-site event rejection capabilities. We have characterized a PPC detector’s response to $$\alpha $$ α particles incident on the sensitive passivated and p $$^+$$ + surfaces, a previously poorly-understood source of background. The detector studied is identical to those in the Majorana Demonstrator experiment, a search for neutrinoless double-beta decay ( $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) in $$^{76}$$ 76 Ge. $$\alpha $$ α decays on most of the passivated surface exhibit significant energy loss due to charge trapping, with waveforms exhibiting a delayed charge recovery (DCR) signature caused by the slow collection of a fraction of the trapped charge. The DCR is found to be complementary to existing methods of $$\alpha $$ α identification, reliably identifying $$\alpha $$ α background events on the passivated surface of the detector. We demonstrate effective rejection of all surface $$\alpha $$ α events (to within statistical uncertainty) with a loss of only 0.2% of bulk events by combining the DCR discriminator with previously-used methods. The DCR discriminator has been used to reduce the background rate in the $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β region of interest window by an order of magnitude in the Majorana Demonstrator and will be used in the upcoming LEGEND-200 experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5

Abstract Changes in heavy precipitation frequency can be viewed as a change in the event return period, a common metric of risk. Compared with intensity, frequency changes are less well-studied and past work has largely been constrained to analysis of well-instrumented regions. We exploit the latest ERA5 reanalysis and its global hourly accumulations at 1/4° spatial resolution and apply a metric that captures frequency changes across both wet and dry regions. According to ERA5 and in a global average sense, during 1989–2018, hourly events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988 increased in frequency by 71 (53–93, 95% range) %, while the one day per year heavy event frequency increased by 44 (37–54) %. Thus, hourly events that occurred once per year in the baseline decade are on track to double in frequency by 2021–2030, and the daily events by 2047–2056. Furthermore, our results replicate prior findings that relative frequency increases are larger for increasingly rare events, and for the first time we quantify that mean frequency increases have been greater over ocean than land. Ocean increases are larger by factors of 3.0 and 2.1 for the hourly and daily events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment includes seven dE/dx-E telescopes to measure the energy and charge of particles with atomic numbers from 1 to 26 in the energy range 1-500 MeV/nucleon and to measure electron energy in the range from 3 to 110 MeV. Isotopic composition of hydrogen through sulfur in the range up to 75 Mev/nucleon can also be resolved. The electronic systems include a dual-gain, charge sensitive preamplifier, 4096-channel pulse height analyzers for three parameter analysis of selected events, and an event type readout polling scheme to maximize the use of available telemetry space and to enhance the occurrence of rare events in the data. Details of the detector, electronic and mechanical design are presented.

Stilwell, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rare K 40 Decay with Implications for Fundamental Physics and Geochronology

Potassium-40 is a widespread, naturally occurring isotope whose radioactivity impacts subatomic rare-event searches, nuclear structure theory, and estimated geological ages. A predicted electron-capture decay directly to the ground state of argon-40 has never been observed. Here, the KDK (potassium decay) collaboration reports strong evidence of this rare decay mode. A blinded analysis reveals a nonzero ratio of intensities of ground-state electron-captures (I EC 0 ) over excited-state ones (I EC $\star$ ) of I EC 0 /I EC $\star$ = 0.0095 $^{stat}_{±}$ 0.0022 $^{sys}_{±}$ 0.0010 (68% C.L.), with the null hypothesis rejected at 4σ. In terms of branching ratio, this signal yields I EC 0 = 0.098 % $^{stat}_{±}$ 0.023 % $^{sys}_{±}$ 0.010 % , roughly half of the commonly used prediction, with consequences for various fields [L. Hariasz et al., companion paper, Phys. Rev. C 108, 014327 (2023)].

39 ≤ A ≤ 58↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

New Direct Limit on Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay Half-Life of 128 $\mathrm{Te}$ with CUORE

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) at Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of INFN in Italy is an experiment searching for neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay. Its main goal is to investigate this decay in 130 Te, but its ton-scale mass and low background make CUORE sensitive to other rare processes as well. Here, in this Letter, we present our first results on the search for 0νββ decay of 128 Te, the Te isotope with the second highest natural isotopic abundance. We find no evidence for this decay, and using a Bayesian analysis we set a lower limit on the 128 Te 0νββ decay half-life of T 1/2 > 3.6 x 10 24 yr (90% CI). This represents the most stringent limit on the half-life of this isotope, improving by over a factor of 30 the previous direct search results, and exceeding those from geochemical experiments for the first time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Correlated single- and few-electron backgrounds milliseconds after interactions in dual-phase liquid xenon time projection chambers

In this work, we characterize single- and few-electron backgrounds that are observed in dual-phase liquid xenon time projection chambers at timescales greatly exceeding a maximum drift time after an interaction. These instrumental backgrounds limit a detector's sensitivity to dark matter and cosmogenic neutrinos. Using the ~150g liquid xenon detector at Purdue University, we investigate how these backgrounds, produced after 122keV 57 Co Compton interactions, behave under different detector conditions. We find that the rates of single- and few-electron signals follow power-laws with time after the interaction. We observe linearly increasing rates with increased extraction field, and increased rates in the single-electron background with increased drift field. Normalizing the rates to the primary interaction's measured ionization signal, the rates increase linearly with the depth of the interaction. We test the hypothesis that infrared photons (1550nm) would stimulate and accelerate electron emission via photodetachment from impurities, but find that even 1 Watt of infrared light fails to reduce these backgrounds. We thus provide a characterization that can inform background models for low-energy rare event searches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Implementation and analysis of quantum computing application to Higgs boson reconstruction at the large Hadron Collider

With the advent of the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) era, high energy physics (HEP) event selection will require new approaches to rapidly and accurately analyze vast databases. The current study addresses the enormity of HEP databases in an unprecedented manner—a quantum search using Grover’s Algorithm (GA) on an unsorted database, ATLAS Open Data, from the ATLAS detector. A novel method to identify rare events at 13 TeV in CERN’s LHC using quantum computing (QC) is presented. As indicated by the Higgs boson decay channel H→ZZ*→4l , the detection of four leptons in one event may be used to reconstruct the Higgs boson and, more importantly, evince Higgs boson decay to some new phenomena, such as H→ZZ d →4l . Searching the dataset for collisions resulting in detection of four leptons using a Jupyter Notebook, a classical simulation of GA, and several quantum computers with multiple qubits, the current application was found to make the proper selection in the unsorted dataset. Quantum search efficacy was analyzed for the incoming HL-LHC by implementing the QC method on multiple classical simulators and IBM’s quantum computers with the IBM Qiskit Open Source Software. The current QC application provides a novel, high-efficiency alternative to classical database searches, demonstrating its potential utility as a rapid and increasingly accurate search method in HEP.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

EXCESS workshop: Descriptions of rising low-energy spectra

Many low-threshold experiments observe sharply rising event rates of yet unknown origins below a few hundred eV, and larger than expected from known backgrounds. Due to the significant impact of this excess on the dark matter or neutrino sensitivity of these experiments, a collective effort has been started to share the knowledge about the individual observations. For this, the EXCESS Workshop was initiated. In its first iteration in June 2021, ten rare event search collaborations contributed to this initiative via talks and discussions. The contributing collaborations were CONNIE, CRESST, DAMIC, EDELWEISS, MINER, NEWS-G, NUCLEUS, RICOCHET, SENSEI and SuperCDMS. They presented data about their observed energy spectra and known backgrounds together with details about the respective measurements. In this paper, we summarize the presented information and give a comprehensive overview of the similarities and differences between the distinct measurements. The provided data is furthermore publicly available on the workshop's data repository together with a plotting tool for visualization.

Adari, Prakruth↗

DOE OSTI2022

EXCESS workshop: Descriptions of rising low-energy spectra

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Climatology↗

NASA NTRS2022

Can Machine Learning Reveal Precursors of Reversals of the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole Field?

It is well known that the axial dipole part of Earth’s magnetic field reverses polarity, so that the magnetic North Pole becomes the South Pole and vice versa. The timing of reversals is well documented for the past 160 Myr, but the conditions that lead to a reversal are still not well understood. It is not known if there are reliable ‘precursors’ of reversals (events that indicate that a reversal is upcoming) or what they might be. We investigate if machine learning (ML) techniques can reliably identify precursors of reversals based on time-series of the axial magnetic dipole field. The basic idea is to train a classifier using segments of time-series of the axial magnetic dipole. This training step requires modification of standard ML techniques to account for the fact that we are interested in rare events—a reversal is unusual, while a non-reversing field is the norm. Without our tweak, the ML classifiers lead to useless predictions. Perhaps even more importantly, the usable observational record is limited to 0–2 Ma and contains only five reversals, necessitating that we determine if the data are even sufficient to reliably train and validate an ML algorithm. To answer these questions we use several ML classifiers (linear/non-linear support vector machines and long short-term memory networks), invoke a hierarchy of numerical models (from simplified models to 3-D geodynamo simulations), and two palaeomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000). The performance of the ML classifiers varies across the models and the observational record and we provide evidence that this is not an artefact of the numerics, but rather reflects how ‘predictable’ a model or observational record is. Studying models of Earth’s magnetic field via ML classifiers thus can help with identifying shortcomings or advantages of the various models. For Earth’s magnetic field, we conclude that the ability of ML to identify precursors of reversals is limited, largely due to the small amount and low frequency resolution of data, which makes training and subsequent validation nearly impossible. Put simply: the ML techniques we tried are not currently capable of reliably identifying an axial dipole moment (ADM) precursor for geomagnetic reversals. This does not necessarily imply that such a precursor does not exist, and improvements in temporal resolution and length of ADM records may well offer better prospects in the future.

Kyle Gwirtz↗

DOE OSTI2025

GRB 221009A: The B.O.A.T. Burst that Shines in Gamma Rays

We present a complete analysis of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data of GRB 221009A, the brightest gamma-ray burst (GRB) ever detected. The burst emission above 30 MeV detected by the LAT preceded, by 1 s, the low-energy (<10 MeV) pulse that triggered the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM), as has been observed in other GRBs. The prompt phase of GRB 221009A lasted a few hundred seconds. It was so bright that we identify a bad time interval of 64 s caused by the extremely high flux of hard X-rays and soft gamma rays, during which the event reconstruction efficiency was poor and the dead time fraction quite high. The late-time emission decayed as a power law, but the extrapolation of the late-time emission during the first 450 s suggests that the afterglow started during the prompt emission. We also found that high-energy events observed by the LAT are incompatible with synchrotron origin, and, during the prompt emission, are more likely related to an extra component identified as synchrotron self-Compton (SSC). A remarkable 400 GeV photon, detected by the LAT 33 ks after the GBM trigger and directionally consistent with the location of GRB 221009A, is hard to explain as a product of SSC or TeV electromagnetic cascades, and the process responsible for its origin is uncertain. Because of its proximity and energetic nature, GRB 221009A is an extremely rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Study of the Residual Background Events in Ground Data from the ASTRO-HSXS Microcalorimeter

The measured instrumental background of the XRS calorimeter spectrometer of Suzaku had several sources, including primary cosmic rays and secondary particles interacting with the pixels and with the silicon structure of the array. Prior to the launch of Suzaku, several data sets were taken without x-ray illumination to study the characteristics and timing of background signals produced in the array and anti-coincidence detector. Even though the source of the background in the laboratory was different from that in low-earth orbit (muons and environmental gamma-rays on the ground versus Galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons and alpha particles in space), the study of correlations and properties of populations of rare events was useful for establishing the preliminary screening parameters needed for selection of good science data. Sea-level muons are singly charged minimum-ionizing particles, like the GCR protons, and thus were good probes of the effectiveness of screening via the signals from the anti-coincidence detector. Here we present the first analysis of the on-ground background of the SXS calorimeter of Astro-H. On XRS, the background prior to screening was completely dominated by coincident events on many pixels resulting from the temperature pulse arising from each large energy deposition (greater than 200 keV) into the silicon frame around the array. The improved heat-sinking of the SXS array compared with XRS eliminated these thermal disturbances, greatly reducing the measured count rate in the absence of illumination. The removal of these events has made it easier to study the nature of the residual background and to look for additional event populations. We compare the SXS residual background to that measured in equivalent ground data for XRS and discuss these preliminary results.

ASTRO-H↗