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At least 127 records · Page 7

Imaging the crust and uppermost mantle structure of Portugal (West Iberia) with seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY We present a new high-resolution 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath Portugal, inferred from ambient seismic noise tomography. We use broad-band seismic data from a dense temporary deployment covering the entire Portuguese mainland between 2010 and 2012 in the scope of the WILAS project. Vertical component data are processed using phase correlation and phase weighted stack to obtain empirical Green functions (EGFs) for 2016 station pairs. Further, we use a random sampling and subset stacking strategy to measure robust Rayleigh-wave group velocities in the period range 7–30 s and associated uncertainties. The tomographic inversion is performed in two steps: First, we determine group-velocity lateral variations for each period. Next, we invert them at each grid point using a new trans-dimensional inversion scheme to obtain the 3-D shear wave velocity model. The final 3-D model extends from the upper crust (5 km) down to the uppermost mantle (60 km) and has a lateral resolution of ∼50 km. In the upper and middle crusts, the Vs anomaly pattern matches the tectonic units of the Variscan Massif and Alpine basins. The transition between the Lusitanian Basin and the Ossa Morena Zone is marked by a contrast between moderate- and high-velocity anomalies, in addition to two arched earthquake lineations. Some faults, namely, the Manteigas–Vilariça–Bragança fault and the Porto–Tomar–Ferreira do Alentejo fault, have a clear signature from the upper crust down to the uppermost mantle (60 km). Our 3-D shear wave velocity model offers new insights into the continuation of the main tectonic units at depth and contributes to better understanding the seismicity of Portugal.

Silveira, Graça (ORCID:0000000221102554)↗

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Programme: Mg ii lags and R − L relation

ABSTRACT The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity (R–L relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At z ∼ 1–2, where AGN activity peaks, the R–L relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg ii line. We present 25 Mg ii lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey RM project based on 6 yr of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the rescaled, resampled versions of the observed light curves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg ii lags and extends the R–L relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal {R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the R–L relation. The best-fitting Mg iiR–L relation has a slope α = 0.39 ± 0.08 with an intrinsic scatter $\sigma _{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ . The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H β R–L relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new R–L relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H β R–L relation. Our new R–L relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning applied to classifying neutron resonances

The performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depends on a precise understanding of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials used in these systems. These cross sections exhibit resonance structure whose shape is determined in part by the angular momentum quantum numbers of the resonances. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. In this project, we apply a machine learning technique, namely decision trees, to automate the quantum number assignments. The tree is trained from simulated data generated to mimic the errors found in real data. We explore the use of several physics-motivated features for training our trees, including the nearest neighbor spacing distribution, cumulative level distribution, and channel width distributions. Initial results using random matrix theory motivated fits which demonstrated that we can determine resonance spin groups somewhat reliably. If we use these fits as features in our trees, we can train them to spot outliers corresponding to misassigned resonances. We found that with the large number of features used in this project that the decision tree tended to over t training data resulting in poor performance with respect to the test data. By reducing the number of features, we can achieve nearly perfect assignment of quantum numbers with our training data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Kaczmarz-inspired approach to accelerate the optimization of neural network wavefunctions

Neural network wavefunctions optimized using the variational Monte Carlo method have been shown to produce highly accurate results for the electronic structure of atoms and small molecules, but the high cost of optimizing such wavefunctions prevents their application to larger systems. We propose the Subsampled Projected-Increment Natural Gradient Descent (SPRING) optimizer to reduce this bottleneck. SPRING combines ideas from the recently introduced minimum-step stochastic reconfiguration optimizer (MinSR) and the classical randomized Kaczmarz method for solving linear least-squares problems. We demonstrate that SPRING outperforms both MinSR and the popular Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature method (KFAC) across a number of small atoms and molecules, given that the learning rates of all methods are optimally tuned. For example, on the oxygen atom, SPRING attains chemical accuracy after forty thousand training iterations, whereas both MinSR and KFAC fail to do so even after one hundred thousand iterations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SPARTAN (Scalable Probabilistic Application Reconfigurable Tensor Autonomous Network)

The technical founder of Ludwig Computing Inc has been competitively selected for support by Cyclotron Road, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) Lab-Embedded Entrepreneurship Program (LEEP) through an approved merit review process. Ludwig Computing Inc, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office through the Cyclotron Road program, has investigated the advantages of probabilistic computing for real-world compute-intensive applications. This research adds to the understanding of alternative computing paradigms by exploring a unique hardware-software co-design that integrates quantum computing methods with nature-inspired problem-solving techniques. The project's focus on areas such as combinatorial optimization, graph analytics, and machine learning demonstrates the potential for significant advancements in computational efficiency and performance. By harnessing natural randomness to streamline large circuits into fewer devices, Ludwig's approach enables massive parallelism, potentially offering higher throughput, speed, and energy efficiency compared to conventional hardware solutions. This work benefits the public by paving the way for more efficient computing solutions that could address complex real-world problems while potentially reducing energy consumption in data-intensive industries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BCG alignment with the locations of cluster members and the large-scale structure out to 10 R 200

Using a sample of >200 clusters, each with typically 100–200 spectroscopically confirmed cluster members, we search for a signal of alignment between the position angle (PA) of the Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) and the distribution of cluster members on the sky about the cluster centre out to projected distances of 3 R 200 . The deep spectroscopy, combined with corrections for spectroscopic incompleteness, makes our sample ideal to determine alignment signal strengths. We also use an SDSS based skeleton of the filamentary large-scale structure (LSS), and measure BCG alignment with the location of the LSS skeleton segments on the sky out to projected distances of 10 R 200 . The alignment signal is measured using three separate statistical measures; Rao’s spacing test (U), Kuiper’s V parameter (V), and the Binomial probability test (P). The significance of the BCG alignment signal with both cluster members and LSS segments is extremely high (1 in a million chance or less to be drawn randomly from a uniform distribution). We investigate a wide set of parameters that may influence the strength of the alignment signal. Clusters with more elliptical-shaped BCGs show stronger alignment with both their cluster members and LSS segments. Also, selecting clusters with closely connected filaments, or using a luminosity-weighted LSS skeleton, increases the alignment signal significantly. Alignment strength decreases with increasing projected distance. Combined, these results provide strong evidence for the growth of clusters and their BCGs by preferential feeding along the direction of the filaments in which they are embedded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Empirical Study on the Use of the Rancor Microworld Simulator to Support Full-scope Data Collection

A lack of data has been identified as a major challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Accordingly, several institutes and researchers have tried to collect HRA data from different data sources such as actual historical measurements, expert judgements, or simulator studies. While the most recent studies predominantly focus on collecting data using full-scope simulators with actual operators, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun to collect HRA data using a simplified simulator, i.e., the Rancor Microworld simulator, with student participants. Full-scope studies have been known to have several intrinsic challenges to securing enough quantity of the data due to many reasons like the high cost for performing experiments or requiring actual operators’ cooperation. The ultimate goal of INL’s effort aims to infer actual operators’ data collected from a full-scope simulator on the basis of microworld data with student subjects as well as collect additional data that could be missed in the full-scope research. As a first step to achieve this goal, this paper projects an experimental plan for investigating the differences in human performance between individuals in two groups: 1) an actual operator and 2) a student when using the Rancor Microworld simulator. A randomized factorial experiment design has been developed with two independent variables, i.e., type of scenario and type of subject. Six human performance measures, i.e., 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situation awareness, 5) patterns of attention and 6) the number of manipulations were selected. A couple of scenarios and their procedures available to the Rancor Microworld simulator have been developed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Simultaneous classical and quantum communication scheme based on coherent detection

An improved coherent communication scheme is provided. The coherent communication scheme encodes both classical and quantum information simultaneously using isolated groups of states: classical information is represented by different groups and can be decoded deterministically; and quantum information is represented by highly overlapped states within the same group, thus guaranteeing security. Decoding includes projecting the detection results at the receiver to one of the distinguishable encoding groups first, which allows the classical information to be read out, and then generating a quantum key from the residual randomness. This communications scheme enables simultaneous classical communication and QKD over the same communication channel using the same transmitter and receiver, opening the door to operate QKD in the background of classical communication and at negligible costs.

Qi, Bi↗

Laboratory Instrument Software Controlled Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry for Electrical Cable Testing

This research discusses development of a software-controlled laboratory instrument based spread spectrum time domain reflectometry system (SSTDR). This constitutes one task within PNNL’s Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) whose mission includes advancing nondestructive examination (NDE) techniques for off-line and on-line in-situ cable condition monitoring. In 2022, PNNL evaluated SSTDR for detection and characterization of a number of cable anomalies (Glass et al. 2022). The review included comparison of SSTDR to Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) techniques which have enjoyed encouraging feedback and are starting to be used in nuclear power plants for periodic cable condition monitoring of cable systems as part of the plant’s overall cable aging management program. The FDR test introduces a broad-band chirp onto the cable at the cable end then listens for any reflection from a change of impedance along the cable caused by a damaged conductor or insulation, splices, contact with moisture, or other cable anomalies. The signal is captured in the frequency domain then transformed back to the time domain using an inverse Fourier transform (IFT). Based on the velocity of propagation, the impedance response signal is plotted against distance along the cable. Peak locations along the X-axis indicate the distance along the cable where a portion of the signal has been reflected back to the instrument as a result of a cable anomaly. The FDR test is considered the gold standard of reflectometry however it does require the cable to be de-energized to perform the test. The LIVEWIRE commercial SSTDR produces a similar plot to the FDR however all processing is in the time domain. A pseudo-random noise code (PN code) is input onto the cable conductor and the instrument listens for any reflected response from cable anomalies. The SSTDR processes the signal as an autocorrelation comparing the input PN code to any reflected signal detected. The autocorrelation analysis for thermal aging, water and water ingress detection, ground fault and phase-to-phase fault detection at various locations along the cable and with the cable attached and detached from a motor load, and on both energized and un-energized conditions were performed. These results were contrasted to Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) measurements of the un-energized cable. Results were encouraging but indicated more work was warranted – particularly with the SSTDR, it seemed that the insulation damage would likely be better evaluated with multiple bandwidth cable tests particularly including larger bandwidths than were possible with the current commercial instrument. The commercial instrument’s bandwidth was set at 6, 12, 24, and 48MHz but note that SSTDR and FDR definitions of bandwidth trend similarly but are not the same. The FDR response could be more broadly adjusted, and the bandwidth of 100 to 500 MHz produced the best responses. FDR responses to anomalies were clearer than SSTDR responses and indications were that a broader bandwidth SSTDR may lead to improved SSTDR detection capability. This project used a laboratory instrument based SSTDR (primarily using an Arbitrary Waveform Generator (AWG) and a digital oscilloscope plus Python in-house software) that allowed software adjustment of the SSTDR bandwidth, window functions applied to the exciting Pseudo-random Noise (PN) code plus and other aspects of the SSTDR signal processing. Hereafter, this will be referred to as the PNNL SSTDR. Evaluating specific performance of the PNNL SSTDR is left to a separate report. This report documents hardware and software development to produce the SSTDR cable test system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spectral Properties and Coding Transitions of Haar-Random Quantum Codes

A quantum error-correcting code with a nonzero error threshold undergoes a mixed-state phase transition when the error rate reaches that threshold. We explore this phase transition for Haar-random quantum codes, in which the logical information is encoded in a random subspace of the physical Hilbert space. We focus on the spectrum of the encoded system density matrix as a function of the rate of uncorrelated, single-qudit errors. For low error rates, this spectrum consists of well-separated bands, representing errors of different weights. As the error rate increases, the bands for high-weight errors merge. The evolution of these bands with increasing error rate is well described by a simple analytic ansatz. Using this ansatz, as well as an explicit calculation, we show that the threshold for Haar-random quantum codes saturates the hashing bound, and thus coincides with that for random stabilizer codes. For error rates that exceed the hashing bound, typical errors are uncorrectable, but postselected error correction remains possible until a much higher detection threshold. Postselection can in principle be implemented by projecting onto subspaces corresponding to low-weight errors, which remain correctable past the hashing bound.

decoherence↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Developing ML/AI Methods for High-Throughput Characterization of Multiple-Sensor Streams of Tokamak Dynamics for High-Speed Control (Final Report)

This project evaluated and developed new mathematical and algorithmic techniques capable of handling (in real-time) the growing amounts of data generated by modern fusion research. While existing numerical linear algebra (NLA) methods provide the backbone to classical data analysis and algorithms, these methods fundamentally do not port to distributed architectures nor do they allow low-latency data reduction for control. Motivated by the needs for modern fusion reactors, this project explored and implemented new numerical methods to characterize plasma dynamics, respond in real-time to discharge evolution, and to process massive-scale data accurately and rapidly more fully. This project links expertise in multiple-sensor diagnostics of tokamak plasma dynamics from Columbia University’s Plasma Physics Laboratory with expertise in massive-scale data reduction and extreme data control algorithms at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute. This interdisciplinary project (i) applied machine learning methods, (ii) implemented a properly-trained neural-network for very fast processing of high-speed plasma videography, and (ii) developed the applied mathematical methods, based on randomized-NLA (rNLA) routines, for data analysis, reduction, and real-time control. The Columbia University High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) facility provided data to test new algorithms and partnership with Columbia University's Data Sciences Institute evaluated the broader use of new algorithms for many challenging control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Determination of permeability for hydrocarbon release due to excavation-induced stress redistribution in rock salt

Due to a stress redistribution after the excavation of an underground tunnel for radioactive waste disposal, an Ed/DZ (excavation disturbed/damaged zone) will be generated in the near field of the opening, resulting in significant changes in the hydraulic and mechanical properties of the rock mass in the zone. Initially more or less randomly distributed hydrocarbons at grain boundaries in rock salt, which sometimes can only be observed with ultraviolet light, can then be mobilised and migrate at a potentially significant rate towards the excavation. Within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX 2019, the migration mechanism of such fluid inclusions in rock salt is being studied intensively. Specifically, a multi-scale modelling strategy has been developed. A macroscale coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of an underground excavation was performed to determine hydraulic and time-dependent deviatoric stress conditions, by taking into account the rock salt creep behaviour. Under the obtained macro-scale constraints, micro-scale modelling of a pathway dilation along halite grain boundaries was performed using different model strategies: a) coupled hydromechanical modelling with a consideration of hydraulic pressure-induced dilatant deformation, b) nonlinear dynamic model taking account of fluid migration, stress-dependent grain boundary wetting and shear-induced dilatancy of salt, and c) phase-field modelling of flow pathway propagation. The permeability increase resulting from the pathway dilation is estimated to be as high as two orders of magnitude. Based on the permeability determined, a series of pressure buildups measured from a borehole with a high hydrocarbon release rate, a total of 430 build-ups within a monitoring time of 938 days, can be simulated with a macro-scale compressible flow model accounting for different zones around the opening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Lack of QBO–MJO Connection in CMIP6 Models

Observational analysis has indicated a strong connection between the stratospheric quasi–biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO activity being stronger during the easterly phase than the westerly phase of the QBO. We assess the representation of this QBO–MJO connection in 30 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. While some models reasonably simulate the QBO during boreal winter, none of them capture a difference in MJO activity between easterly and westerly QBO that is larger than that which would be expected from the random sampling of internal variability. The weak signal of the simulated QBO–MJO connection may be due to the weaker amplitude of the QBO than observed, especially between 100 to 50 hPa. This weaker amplitude in the models is seen both in the QBO–related zonal wind and temperature, the latter of which is thought to be critical for destabilizing tropical convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗