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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Vulnerability Analysis for Cascading Failures of Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a cascading failure simulation (CFS) method and a hybrid machine learning method for vulnerability analysis of integrated power-gas systems (IPGSs). The CFS method is designed to study the propagating process of cascading failures between the two systems, generating data for machine learning with initial states randomly sampled. The proposed method considers generator and gas well ramping, transmission line and gas pipeline tripping, island issue handling and load shedding strategies. Then, a hybrid machine learning model with a combined random forest (RF) classification and regression algorithms is proposed to investigate the impact of random initial states on the vulnerability metrics of IPGSs. Extensive case studies are carried out on three test IPGSs to verify the proposed models and algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed models and algorithms can achieve high accuracy for the vulnerability analysis of IPGSs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface temperatures reveal the patterns of vegetation water stress and their environmental drivers across the tropical Americas

Vegetation is a key component in the global carbon cycle as it stores ~450 GtC as biomass, and removes about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, in some regions, the rate of plant carbon uptake is beginning to slow, largely because of water stress. Here, we develop a new observation-based methodology to diagnose vegetation water stress and link it to environmental drivers. We used the ratio of remotely sensed land surface to near surface atmospheric temperatures (LST/Tair) to represent vegetation water stress, and built regression tree models (random forests) to assess the relationship between LST/Tair and the main environmental drivers of surface energy fluxes in the tropical Americas. We further determined ecosystem traits associated with water stress and surface energy partitioning, pinpointed critical thresholds for water stress, and quantified changes in ecosystem carbon uptake associated with crossing these critical thresholds. Additionally, we found that the top drivers of LST/Tair, explaining over a quarter of its local variability in the study region, are (1) radiation, in 58% of the study region; (2) water supply from precipitation, in 30% of the study region; and (3) atmospheric water demand from vapor pressure deficits (VPD), in 22% of the study region. Regions in which LST/Tair variation is driven by radiation are located in regions of high aboveground biomass or at high elevations, while regions in which LST/Tair is driven by water supply from precipitation or atmospheric demand tend to have low species richness. Carbon uptake by photosynthesis can be reduced by up to 80% in water-limited regions when critical thresholds for precipitation and air dryness are exceeded simultaneously, that is, as compound events. Our results demonstrate that vegetation structure and diversity can be important for regulating surface energy and carbon fluxes over tropical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing automatic morphological classification of galaxies with machine learning and deep learning using Dark Energy Survey imaging

There are several supervised machine learning methods used for the application of automated morphological classification of galaxies; however, there has not yet been a clear comparison of these different methods using imaging data, or an investigation for maximizing their effectiveness. We carry out a comparison between several common machine learning methods for galaxy classification [Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), K-nearest neighbour, logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Neural Networks] by using Dark Energy Survey (DES) data combined with visual classifications from the Galaxy Zoo 1 project (GZ1). Our goal is to determine the optimal machine learning methods when using imaging data for galaxy classification. We show that CNN is the most successful method of these ten methods in our study. Using a sample of ~2800 galaxies with visual classification from GZ1, we reach an accuracy of ~0.99 for the morphological classification of ellipticals and spirals. The further investigation of the galaxies that have a different ML and visual classification but with high predicted probabilities in our CNN usually reveals the incorrect classification provided by GZ1. We further find the galaxies having a low probability of being either spirals or ellipticals are visually lenticulars (S0), demonstrating that supervised learning is able to rediscover that this class of galaxy is distinct from both ellipticals and spirals. We confirm that ~2.5 percent galaxies are misclassified by GZ1 in our study. After correcting these galaxies’ labels, we improve our CNN performance to an average accuracy of over 0.99 (accuracy of 0.994 is our best result).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2026

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning predictions of high-Curie-temperature materials

Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, $T$ C , and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial $T$ C is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known datasets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid $T$ C predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random-forest model and a k -NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations (“descriptors”) and regression approaches. A random-forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. Further, a random-forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-$T$ C materials and under-predict high-$T$ C materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-$T$ C materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Estimation of Daily Ground–Level NO 2 Concentrations from Remote Sensing Data

The limited number of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) surface measurements calls for the development of highly accurate approaches to estimating surface NO 2 concentrations. In this study, we leverage a new satellite instrument, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), along with other predictor variables, to estimate daily surface NO 2 concentrations over Texas in 2019. We use the deep convolutional neural network (Deep-CNN), an advanced deep learning algorithm, to obtain estimates and achieve a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.91, an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.95, and a mean absolute bias (MAB) of 1.75 ppb in surface NO 2 estimation. Additionally, we leverage a novel approach, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to describe how Deep-CNN understands each predictor variable. The SHAP results show that the Deep-CNN model has an advanced understanding of the dataset, revealing that TROPOMI closely captures levels of NO 2 . In addition, we show the superiority of our Deep-CNN model at estimating surface NO 2 over other well-known machine learning and regression models in the field, including the support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR). Although SVM and RF show strong capabilities at estimating surface NO 2 concentrations, their accuracy is inferior to that of the Deep-CNN model, ranking second and third in model accuracy in this study. The MLR, however, shows a poor ability at NO 2 estimation and ranks last among all models. Furthermore, testing the impact of sample size on model performance, we also show that, compared to other models, Deep-CNN needs more samples to trigger its strength at surface NO 2 estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated screening of functional atomic impurities in halide perovskites using high-throughput computations and machine learning

The pressing need for novel materials that can serve rising demands in solar cell and optoelectronic technologies makes the nexus of halide perovskites, high-throughput computations, and machine learning, very promising. Ever increasing amounts of data on the structure, fundamental properties, and device performance of halide perovskites provide opportunities for learning chemical rules and design principles that make these materials attractive, and applying them across wide chemical spaces. In this work, we show that impurity properties of halide perovskites computed using density functional theory (DFT) can be combined with machine learning (ML) to deliver predictive models and quick identification of optoelectronically active impurity atoms. Our computation lead to the largest reported dataset of the formation energies and charge transition levels of Pb-site impurities in methylammonium lead halide (MAPbX 3 ) perovskites. Descriptors are defined to uniquely represent any impurity atom in any MAPbX 3 compound and mapped to the computed impurity properties using regression techniques such as Gaussian process regression, neural networks, and random forests. We use the best optimized predictive models to make predictions for hundreds of impurities across 9 MAPbX 3 compounds and create lists of dominating impurities, that is, impurities that can shift the equilibrium Fermi level in the perovskite as determined by native point defects. Finally, this accelerated screening powered by computations and machine learning can guide the identification of problematic impurities that may cause undesired recombination of charge carriers, as well as impurities that can be deliberately introduced to tune the perovskite conductivity and resulting photovoltaic absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-based CO 2 concentration prediction: Application to indoor air quality control using demand-controlled ventilation

There have been increasing concerns over the air quality inside buildings as high levels of bio-effluents can cause nausea, dizziness, headaches, and fatigue to the people working in those spaces. First published in 2004 as Standard 62.1, ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2019 requires highly occupied spaces to implement heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) that can dilute contaminants produced by occupants. In this regard, occupant-centric ventilation control has been regarded as an effective practice to maintain a satisfactory indoor air quality (IAQ) when dealing with highly variable occupancy environments. However, few established models in current literature and practice consider dynamic occupancy behavior and adaptive IAQ control. To address this gap, a dynamic indoor CO2 model is constructed using machine learning algorithms to forecast CO2concentrations across a range of forecasting horizons. Herein, we tuned and compared six state-of-the-algorithms—including Support Vector Machine, Ada Boost, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Multilayer Perceptron. The algorithms’ performances are validated using CO 2 and historical meteorological data collected from a campus classroom with a variable occupancy rate. Simulation results showed that Multilayer Perceptron can strongly predict the volatile CO 2 behavior and also outperforms other algorithms in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, a control strategy capable of modeling and detecting dynamic patterns of CO 2 level is utilized to modulate the ventilation rate in real-time and also reduce the energy consumption. The proposed controller reduced the HVAC fan’s energy consumption by 51.4% and provide ventilation as needed per the ASHRAE standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning elastic constants of multi-component alloys

The present manuscript explores application of machine learning methods for determining elastic constants and other derived mechanical properties of multi-component alloys. Here, a number of machine learning models, including linear regression, neural network and random forest based models, are trained and tested on a dataset of binary alloys generated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations and spanning over a large number of elemental species in the periodic table. Starting with a wide range of simple and easily accessible compositionally-averaged elemental features, a correlation-based feature selection strategy was used to systematically down-select a set of most relevant features towards the prediction of the elasticity tensor components. The true predictive performance and the associated uncertainties of the models were established by testing on unseen data and bootstrapping, respectively. A single and pair-wise feature partial dependence analysis was performed to visualize the average property trends in the multi-dimensional feature space in order to further understand the achieved predictive performance. The utility of the trained model is further demonstrated by obtaining sufficiently accurate yet highly efficient approximations for bulk modulus, Young’s modulus, shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio for alloys beyond the binary space (i.e., two-component alloys) on which the model was originally trained. More importantly, we test and validate the predictive performance of the developed model directly against the experimentally measured elastic constants of technologically relevant multi-component alloys (such as, Ni- and Ti-based alloys). Finally, utility of such a data-enabled route is demonstrated by predicting the possible range of various elastic properties for vast composition space available within the five component Ni-Cr-Fe-Mo-W alloy system in a high-throughput manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height From ERA5 Reanalysis With MOSAiC Observations Over the Arctic Ocean

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a crucial indicator reflecting the region of the atmosphere characterized by continuous turbulence. Here, we use radiosonde and surface meteorological observations (4–7 times per day, year-round measurements) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition to derive the PBLH (PBLH MOSAiC ), and further evaluate the PBLH from the ERA5 reanalysis (PBLH ERA5 ). Comparisons between PBLH MOSAiC and PBLH ERA5 from different perspectives reveal that: (a) The overestimation of PBLH ERA5 when the sea ice concentration is >90% is significant with the centered root mean squared error reaching up to 201 m; (b) The difference between the two products is notably pronounced in cold seasons, while it is comparatively diminished in warm seasons; (c) In neutral boundary layers, differences in PBLH ERA5 are larger compared with stable and convective boundary layers. In addition, the analysis of error sources indicates that the bias of PBLH ERA5 is sensitive to the bias of vertical thermal structure and wind speed profiles in ERA5 data sets in all conditions. Finally, we find a Random Forest model effectively reduces the bias of PBLH ERA5 with the index of agreement reaching up to 0.71 in the test data set, while a multiple linear regression demonstrates comparable performance to the Random Forest model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗