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At least 127 records · Page 7

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) (Final Report)

This report summarizes the activities performed as part of the Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. We provide an overview of the research done in this project, including work on cyber emulation, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. We present examples of integrated analyses performed on two case studies: a network scanning/detection study and a malware command and control study. We highlight the importance of experimental workflows and list references of papers and presentations developed under this project. We outline lessons learned and suggestions for future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.16 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interpretable Uncertainty Quantification in AI for HEP

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how do we physically and statistically interpret these uncertainties?" The answer to this question depends not only on the computational task we aim to undertake, but also on the methods we use for that task. For artificial intelligence (AI) applications in HEP, there are several areas where interpretable methods for UQ are essential, including inference, simulation, and control/decision-making. There exist some methods for each of these areas, but they have not yet been demonstrated to be as trustworthy as more traditional approaches currently employed in physics (e.g., non-AI frequentist and Bayesian methods). Shedding light on the questions above requires additional understanding of the interplay of AI systems and uncertainty quantification. We briefly discuss the existing methods in each area and relate them to tasks across HEP. We then discuss recommendations for avenues to pursue to develop the necessary techniques for reliable widespread usage of AI with UQ over the next decade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) for full engineering models by solving probability density function (PDF) equation

This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty quantification for equations of state: copper as an example

Equations of state are essential for providing a fundamental description of materials properties in thermodynamic equilibrium and are used to provide closure relations for hydrodynamics simulations. Generally, equations of state rely on simple physics-based parameterized materials models to inform on the free energy of a material through out a given thermodynamic state space. Historically the parameters of these models have been tuned by hand to fit various experimental data. However, modern optimization and uncertainty quantification techniques allow us to quickly test thousands of parameter combinations and obtain meaningful uncertainty estimates on the parameters, opening opportunities for assessing systematic uncertainties in experiments, assessing model adequacy, and more. In this report, we use Bayesian inference to fit the solid (fcc) equation of state of copper. We focus on fitting five different experimental datasets, including the isobaric density, isobaric heat capacity, room temperature isotherm, principal isentrope, and principal Hugoniot. We fit all five data types simultaneously, and then explore the extent to which combinations of 2 subsets of the 5 datasets can constrain the EOS parameters, as compared to the fit to all 5. This information is useful for investigating the extent to which different datasets can con strain EOS models and thereby help guide experimental investigations in order to best constrain the EOS. We also discuss ways that the methodologies can be used to investigate systematic discrepancies between experiments, as well as how the methods can be used to assess model uncertainty. The framework we develop is general, in that it can be used with a variety of optimization or uncertainty quantification techniques and with a variety of data sources, including both experimental and ab-inito data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Component Modeling Using the Discrete-Direct Approach

Threaded fastener behavior can be an important aspect of complex component and system behavior, but there is no one-size-fits-all finite element analysis technique. Proper modeling of threaded fastener joints requires careful consideration of many details, from test setup and data acquisition to constitutive modeling and uncertainty quantification approaches. This report details analysis of a “mini-radax” bolted-joint exemplar where a Discrete-Direct uncertainty quantification approach is employed to evaluate margin of the component. The mini-radax geometry is tested to failure on a drop table, and single-coupon tests of individual fasteners serve as foundational data for the analysis. Analysis predictions complement the test data well and provide additional context for engineering decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrated System for Methane Emissions Monitoring, Mapping, and Quantification

This report presents the work completed under the DOE iM4 project for the development of a methane emission monitoring system for detection, location, and quantification of methane in oil and gas industries. The task was divided into four main areas including: 1) Sensors and Input, 2) Centralized Cloud Information Center, 3) Algorithms, and 4) Testing and Validation. Task 1 focused on researching and developing an understanding of the current, or soon to be, available methane sensing technologies. Task 2 consisted of developing the architecture, selecting hardware, software and elements for the methane monitoring system. Task 3 focused on the algorithms used for the complex inverse model of going from measured methane signatures to the detection, localization, and quantification of sources that are desired. Finally, Task 4 focused on the methods of testing and validating the operation of the system. Attention was also given to the development method and cost breakdown of the system.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Smooth Functional Data with Application to Material Properties

This document outlines a method for processing functional output (i.e., curves) for the ultimate purpose of sampling curves under specified input conditions for use in modeling and simulation uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of benchmark curves sufficiently representative of the relevant scenario(s) being simulated are provided to the process and formatted as described in Section 1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized to discover the components of uncertainty in the benchmark curves and is outlined in Section 2. Section 3 describes the application of uncertainty quantification to the PCA results for the purpose of sampling curves to be used in UQ analysis. Section 4 applies these techniques to an example benchmark dataset. Concluding remarks are provided in the final section.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic Predictions for Fastener Failure in the Sandia Mechanics Challenge Using the Discrete-Direct Uncertainty Quantification Approach

This paper documents the blind and post-blind analysis predictions for the 2023 Sandia Mechanics Challenge (SMC), which involved predicting the behavior of a threaded fastener joint structure subjected to shock loading. Utilizing repeat sets of fastener calibration data from various experimental configurations including tension, double shear, and joint tension, we developed a library of calibrated models which were propagated through the application model using the Discrete-Direct (DD) uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach. Although the initial blind predictions did not incorporate spare-sample processing to quantify fastener failure probabilities, the analyses yielded reasonable conclusions aligned with experimental results. In the post-blind analysis phase, we focused on enhancing the fidelity of the aluminum constitutive model and innovating the DD approach to obtain probabilistic predictions for fastener failure, particularly when quantities of interest (QoIs) approach their bounds. The improved aluminum model captures the behavior of the cantilever under shock loading more accurately, predicting both partial and complete cracks, although it tends to underpredict failure propagation. The enhanced DD approach facilitates probabilistic predictions that reflect the interdependent failure mechanisms of the fasteners and the cantilever, revealing that while certain fasteners are more likely to fail, the failure does not necessarily follow a progressive pattern. Overall, the post-blind analyses significantly improved the predictive capabilities of the model, providing valuable insights into the SMC application and establishing a robust foundation for informed engineering decisions. The methodology demonstrates a cost-effective and extensible approach suitable for a wide range of applications, highlighting the importance of uncertainty quantification to provide context for engineering decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver

Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Leveraging design of experiments to build chemometric models for the quantification of uranium (VI) and HNO3 by Raman spectroscopy

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were optimized for the quantification of U(VI) (10–320 g L −1 ) and HNO 3 (0.6–6 M) by Raman spectroscopy with optimized calibration sets chosen by optimal design of experiments. The designed approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the calibration set for PLSR and SVR by selecting sample concentrations with a quadratic process model, despite complex confounding and covarying spectral features in the spectra. The top PLS2 model resulted in percent root mean square errors of prediction for U(VI), HNO 3 , and NO 3 − of 3.7%, 3.6%, and 2.9%, respectively. PLS1 models performed similarly despite modeling an analyte with a majority linear response (i.e., uranyl symmetric stretch) and another with more covarying vibrational modes (i.e., HNO 3 ). Partial least squares (PLS) model loadings and regression coefficients were evaluated to better understand the relationship between weaker Raman bands and covarying spectral features. Support vector machine models outperformed PLS1 models, resulting in percent root mean square error of prediction values for U(VI) and HNO 3 of 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The optimal nonlinear SVR model was trained using a similar number of samples (11) compared with the PLSR model, even though PLS is a linear modeling approach. The generic D-optimal design presented in this work provides a robust statistical framework for selecting training set samples in disparate two-factor systems. This approach reinforces Raman spectroscopy for the quantification of species relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle and provides a robust chemometric modeling approach to bolster online monitoring in challenging process environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Review of Offshore Methane Quantification Methodologies

Since pre-industrial times, anthropogenic methane emissions have increased and are partly responsible for a changing global climate. Natural gas and oil extraction activities are one significant source of anthropogenic methane. While methods have been developed and refined to quantify onshore methane emissions, the ability of methods to directly quantify emissions from offshore production facilities remains largely unknown. Here, we review recent studies that have directly measured emissions from offshore production facilities and critically evaluate the suitability of these measurement strategies for emission quantification in a marine environment. The average methane emissions from production platforms measured using downwind dispersion methods were 32 kg h−1 from 188 platforms; 118 kg h−1 from 104 platforms using mass balance methods; 284 kg h−1 from 151 platforms using aircraft remote sensing; and 19,088 kg h−1 from 10 platforms using satellite remote sensing. Upon review of the methods, we suggest the unusually large emissions, or zero emissions observed could be caused by the effects of a decoupling of the marine boundary layer (MBL). Decoupling can happen when the MBL becomes too deep or when there is cloud cover and results in a stratified MBL with air layers of different depths moving at different speeds. Decoupling could cause: some aircraft remote sensing observations to be biased high (lower wind speed at the height of the plume); the mass balance measurements to be biased high (narrow plume being extrapolated too far vertically) or low (transects miss the plume); and the downwind dispersion measurements much lower than the other methods or zero (plume lofting in a decoupled section of the boundary layer). To date, there has been little research on the marine boundary layer, and guidance on when decoupling happens is not currently available. We suggest an offshore controlled release program could provide a better understanding of these results by explaining how and when stratification happens in the MBL and how this affects quantification methodologies.

Riddick, Stuart N. (ORCID:0000000316841843)↗

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗