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In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System, current users and products, and methods for validation and evaluation of the system. Methods for evaluation include baseline evaluations metrics, the ability to simulate key modes of variability, and evaluation of new development areas.
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Isoviolanthrene (C34H18), a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecule, was studied via matrix isolation in argon and water at 20 K. Infrared spectroscopy was performed in situ where samples were irradiated using ultraviolet light. Experimental spectra were compared to theoretical spectra for vibrational band assignment, determination of the corresponding A-values, and photoproduct identification. Isoviolanthrene was also deposited as a thin film and irradiated with different energy sources: ultraviolet photons (10.2 eV), soft electrons (1.5 keV), protons (1.5 MeV), and He+ particles (1.5 MeV), to understand the effects of different energy sources on a PAH. Anions and cations of soviolanthrene were produced as a result of UV photolysis in an argon matrix. Hydrogenand oxygen-rich aromatic photoproducts were produced by ultraviolet photons when isoviolanthrene was isolated in a water matrix. The irradiated PAH thin films results were dependent on the energy source. Irradiation with ultraviolet photons yielded a broad underlying feature centered at 9.6 μm, while bombardment with soft electrons gave a broad feature centered at 7.7 μm. In the case of proton bombardment, no broad feature was detected, in contrast with He+ bombardment that destroyed most of the isoviolanthrene and produced broad features in the C-Hoop and C–H stretching regions. A comparison of astronomical IR emission observations with our experimental results in the mid-infrared range has revealed a similarity between the observed plateaus and the broad features produced by our experiments.
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Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of enormous value to weather forecasters, they cannot provide the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment. A novel methodology was developed to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to six hours into the future and has been made available within the NOAA National Weather Service Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) for testing in a quasi-operational setting. This methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to recreate future soundings of temperature and moisture at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 satellite platforms to allow for rapid near-real time product processing. Science code was transitioned to operational production in 2019 and the product, NUCAPS-Forecast, was tested at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment in 2019 and 2021. Forecaster feedback has led to improving the product and processing system to address product limitations and improve its applicability for pre-convective forecasting. This presentation highlights the design of the NUCAPS-Forecast system. Solutions were tested and implemented to remove excess moisture and conjoin forward-trajected parcels into vertical profiles for calculating grids of stability indices. Additionally, use cases that explore the tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) were investigated. When evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observational data set areas with elevated CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation and increase confidence the LEO soundings advected forward in time physically represent atmospheric processes. These results suggest that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time exhibits skill in discriminating locations and times that are more likely to lead to convective initiation. Leveraging trajectory modeling to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of LEO IR sounding observations today demonstrates the value of these observations from the future constellation of JPSS satellites and GeoXO mission.
The obsolescence of materials and processes used in the manufacture of traditional DC brush gear motors has necessitated the development of an upgraded DC brush gear motor (UBGM). The current traditional DC brush gear motor (BGM) design was evaluated using Six-Sigma process to identify potential design and production process improvements. The development effort resulted in a qualified UBGM design which improved manufacturability and reduced production costs. Using Six-Sigma processes and incorporating lessons learned during the development process also improved motor performance for UBGM making it a more viable option for future use as a deployment mechanism in space flight applications.
The principal effort was to study technical feasibility and cost aspects of the production technique of spin forming a subreflector reflective surface to a desired surface of revolution, back the surface with fiberglass to stabilize it sufficiently so that it may be machined to the target surface tolerance of .008 inches Root Mean Square (RMS) with a goal of .003 inches RMS. To verify this production technique, analyses was performed to define the production procedure. A price estimate for a 150 inch diameter subreflector for a 34 meter cassegrain antenna. During this feasibility study, numerous production processes were evaluated theoretically as production approaches for single surface, non-welded subreflectors. The first successful was the principal process of spin forming the reflective surface, backing with fiberglass and machining to a final contour. The second successful process was spin forming or bump forming a thicker reflective surface, with an integral (welded in) structure as a backing and machining the mounting pads and reflector to a final configuration.
The isothermal degradation of poly-2,2'-(m-phenylene)-5,5'-bibenzimidazole in vacuo has been studied. Measurement of the increase in pressure with time, coupled with infrared analysis, was used to determine the distribution of the degradation products. Processes A and B with different second-order rate laws were determined to be significant in the temperature range of 550-700 C. Process A leads to the formation of equimolar quantities of hydrogen and ammonia and has an activation energy of 68 kcal/mole. Process B leads to the production of HCN, NH3, and H2 in the ratio of 1:1:2.5 and has an activation energy of 77 kcal/mole. The activation energies and the rate laws are consistent with a mechanism in which the initial degradation step is the bimolecular reaction of two aromatic rings.
The effects of process temperature (reforming temperature) on the overall hydrogen production process were examined. These effects are principally confined to the hydrogen production and the hydrogen purification processing units.
An analysis of second law effects in chemical processes, where product yield is explicitly related to the individual irreversibilities within the process to indicate a maximum theoretical yield, is presented. Examples are given that indicate differences between first and second law approaches toward process efficiency and process yield. This analysis also expresses production capacity in terms of the heating value of a product. As a result, it is particularly convenient in analyzing fuel conversion plants and their potential for improvement. Relationships are also given for the effects of irreversibilities on requirements for process heat and for feedstocks.
The goal of this paper is to use a financial model and a hedging strategy in a systems application. In particular, the classical Black-Scholes model, which was developed in 1973 to find the fair price of a financial contract, is adapted to satisfy an uncertain demand in a manufacturing system when one of two production machines is unreliable. This financial model together with a hedging strategy are used to develop a closed formula for the production strategies of each machine. The strategy guarantees that the uncertain demand will be met in probability at the final time of the production process. It is assumed that the production efficiency of the unreliable machine can be modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process. Two simple examples illustrate the result.
Research into generalized information-metric models of software process productivity establishes quantifiable behavior and theoretical bounds. The models establish a fundamental mathematical relationship between software productivity and the human capacity for information traffic, the software product yield (system size), information efficiency, and tool and process efficiencies. An upper bound is derived that quantifies average software productivity and the maximum rate at which it may grow. This bound reveals that ultimately, when tools, methodologies, and automated assistants have reached their maximum effective state, further improvement in productivity can only be achieved through increasing software reuse. The reuse advantage is shown not to increase faster than logarithmically in the number of reusable features available. The reuse bound is further shown to be somewhat dependent on the reuse policy: a general 'reuse everything' policy can lead to a somewhat slower productivity growth than a specialized reuse policy.
Great care and a large effort was made to minimize the amount of organic matter contained within the flight aerogel used to collect Comet 81P/Wild 2 samples. Even so, by the very nature of the production process and silica aerogel s affinity for volatile organics keeping silica aerogel free from organics is a monumental task. Silica aerogel from three production batches was flown on the Stardust sample return mission. All 3 types had layered densities varying from 5mg/ml to 50 mg/ml where the densest aerogel was farthest away from the collection area. A 2 step gelation process was used to make the flight aerogel and organics used in this process were tetraethylorthosilicate, ethanol and acetonitrile. Both ammonium hydroxide and nitric acid were also used in the aerogel production process. The flight aerogel was baked at JPL at 300 C for 72 hours, most of the baking was done at atmosphere but twice a day the oven was pumped to 10 torr for hour [1]. After the aerogel was baked it was stored in a nitrogen purged cabinet until flight time. One aerogel cell was located in the SRC away from any sample collection area as a witness to possible contamination from out gassing of the space craft, re-entry gases and any other organic encounter. This aerogel was aerogel used in the interstellar collection sample tray and is the least dense of the 3 batches of aerogel flown. Organics found in the witness tile include organics containing Si-CH3 bonds, amines and PAHS. Besides organic contamination, hot spots of calcium were reported in the flight aerogel. Carbonates have been detected in comet 81P/Wild2 samples . During preflight analyses, no technique was used to analyze for carbonates in aerogel. To determine if the carbonates found in 81P/Wild2 samples were from the comet, it is necessary to analyze the flight aerogel for carbonate as well as for organics.
The national Environmental Satellite Service (NESS) receives data at periodic intervals from satellites of the Synchronous Meteorological Satellite/Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series and from the Improved TIROS (Television Infrared Observational Satellite) Operational Satellite. Within the conterminous United States, direct readout and processed products are distributed to users over facsimile networks from a central processing and data distribution facility. In addition, the NESS Satellite Field Stations analyze, interpret, and distribute processed geostationary satellite products to regional weather service activities.
A report discusses the methane and carbon monoxide/LOX (McLOx) rocket for ascent from Mars as well as other critical space propulsion tasks. The system offers a specific impulse over 370 s roughly 50 s higher than existing space-storable bio-propellants. Current Mars in-situ propellant production (ISPP) technologies produce impure methane and carbon monoxide in various combinations. While separation and purification of methane fuel is possible, it adds complexity to the propellant production process and discards an otherwise useful fuel product. The McLOx makes such complex and wasteful processes unnecessary by burning the methane/CO mixtures produced by the Mars ISPP systems without the need for further refinement. Despite the decrease in rocket-specific impulse caused by the CO admixture, the improvement offered by concomitant increased propellant density can provide a net improvement in stage performance. One advantage is the increase of the total amount of propellant produced, but with a decrease in mass and complexity of the required ISPP plant. Methane/CO fuel mixtures also may be produced by reprocessing the organic wastes of a Moon base or a space station, making McLOx engines key for a human Lunar initiative or the International Space Station (ISS) program. Because McLOx propellant components store at a common temperature, very lightweight and compact common bulkhead tanks can be employed, improving overall stage performance further.
The product manufacturing interactions with the design process and the IPAD requirements to support the interactions are described. The data requirements supplied to manufacturing by design are identified and quantified. Trends in computer-aided manufacturing are discussed and the manufacturing process of the 1980's is anticipated.