Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probability and statistical methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

An analytic treatment of gravitational microlensing for sources of finite size at large optical depths

Statistical methods are developed for gravitational lensing in order to obtain analytic expressions for the average surface brightness that include the effects of microlensing by stellar (or other compact) masses within the lensing galaxy. The primary advance here is in utilizing a Markoff technique to obtain expressions that are valid for sources of finite size when the surface density of mass in the lensing galaxy is large. The finite size of the source is probably the key consideration for the occurrence of microlensing by individual stars. For the intensity from a particular location, the parameter which governs the importance of microlensing is determined. Statistical methods are also formulated to assess the time variation of the surface brightness due to the random motion of the masses that cause the microlensing.

Deguchi, Shuji↗

Consistent Practices for the Probability of Detection (POD) of Fracture Critical Metallic Components Project

NASA-STD-5009 requires that successful flaw detection by NDE methods be statistically qualified for use on fracture critical metallic components, but does not standardize practices. This task works towards standardizing calculations and record retention with a web-based tool, the NNWG POD Standards Library or NPSL. Test methods will also be standardized with an appropriately flexible appendix to -5009 identifying best practices. Additionally, this appendix will describe how specimens used to qualify NDE systems will be cataloged, stored and protected from corrosion, damage, or loss.

Hughitt, Brian↗

Progressive transmission and compression images

We describe an image data compression strategy featuring progressive transmission. The method exploits subband coding and arithmetic coding for compression. We analyze the Laplacian probability density, which closely approximates the statistics of individual subbands, to determine a strategy for ordering the compressed subband data in a way that improves rate-distortion performance. Results are presented for a test image.

Kiely, A. B.↗

Progressive Transmission and Compression of Images

We describe an image data compression strategy featuring progressive transmission. The method exploits subband coding and arithmetic coding for compression. We analyze the Laplacian probability density, which closely approximates the statistics of individual subbands, to determine a strategy for ordering the compressed subband data in a way that improves rate-distortion performance. Results are presented for a test image.

Kiely, A. B.↗

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Mashiku, Alinda↗

A global significance evaluation method using simulated events

In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find the probability of a random fluctuation in the background mimicking a real signal. As a high school summer project, we demonstrate a method with Monte Carlo simulated events to evaluate the global significance of a potential resonance with some assumptions. This method for determining significance is general and can be applied, with appropriate modification, to other resonances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Statistical-mechanical selection of the shapes of disk galaxies

A new method is proposed for selecting steady state shapes of disk galaxies as 'most probable states' of a large number of stars, given only the total energy and total angular momentum. A partial differential equation is derived for the mean gravitational potential; it is closely related to the 'sinh-Poisson' equation for the mean-field description of a line vortex system or electrostatic guiding-center plasma. A 'water bag' approximation to the distribution function for bound stars renders the equation analytically tractable, but accurate solution of it may require numerical integration, in view of its general nonlinearity.

Montgomery, David↗

Wave propagation in a random medium

A simple technique is used to derive statistical characterizations of the perturbations imposed upon a wave (plane, spherical or beamed) propagating through a random medium. The method is essentially physical rather than mathematical, and is probably equivalent to the Rytov method. The limitations of the method are discussed in some detail; in general they are restrictive only for optical paths longer than a few hundred meters, and for paths at the lower microwave frequencies. Situations treated include arbitrary path geometries, finite transmitting and receiving apertures, and anisotropic media. Results include, in addition to the usual statistical quantities, time-lagged functions, mixed functions involving amplitude and phase fluctuations, angle-of-arrival covariances, frequency covariances, and other higher-order quantities.

Lee, R. W.↗

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique signature of visual behavior. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as piloting an aircraft, where patterns of visual signatures might represent activities like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these activities based on their behavioral signatures. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as τ. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration τ, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to counts by multiplying by τ divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We have investigated the method using a set of 10 synthetic "activities," that sample 4 AOIs. Four of these activities visit 3 of the 4 AOIs, with equal probability; as there are four different ways to leave-one- out, there are four such activities. Similarly, there are six different activities that leave-two-out. Sequences of simulated behavior were generated by running each activity for 40 seconds, in sequence, for a total of 6.7 minutes. The figure to the right shows the matrix of chi-square statistics, using a value of 2.8 seconds for τ, corresponding to 10 fixations. Low values (dark) indicate poor evidence for activity differences, while high values (bright) indicate strong evidence. The dark squares along the main diagonal each correspond to the forty second intervals in which the activity was held constant; the 4x4 block at the lower left corresponds to the four leave-one-out activities, while the 6x6 block in the upper right corresponds to the leave-two-out activities. (The anti-diagonal pattern of white squares indicates those activity pairs that share no AOIs.) The chi-square values can be binarized by choosing a particular significance level; we are interested in grouping bins that represent the same activity, effectively accepting the null hypothesis. Therefore, we may adopt a relatively lax criterion; for example, choosing a p-value of 0.2 means that two behaviors that have only a 1-in-5 chance of being produced by a single activity might nevertheless be clustered together. We have explored several methods to perform clustering on the data and solving for the activity probabilities. Greedy methods begin by selecting the time bin that is similar to the most (or least) other bins, and then forming a cluster from it and all other non-discriminable bins. These methods show mediocre performance, as they do not take into account temporal contiguity. Preliminary results indicate that methods that "grow" clusters in time from seed points perform better.

activity analysis↗

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗

Magnetic Field-Vector Measurements in Quiescent Prominences via the Hanle Effect: Analysis of Prominences Observed at Pic-Du-Midi and at Sacramento Peak

The Hanle effect method for magnetic field vector diagnostics has now provided results on the magnetic field strength and direction in quiescent prominences, from linear polarization measurements in the He I E sub 3 line, performed at the Pic-du-Midi and at Sacramento Peak. However, there is an inescapable ambiguity in the field vector determination: each polarization measurement provides two field vector solutions symmetrical with respect to the line-of-sight. A statistical analysis capable of solving this ambiguity was applied to the large sample of prominences observed at the Pic-du-Midi (Leroy, et al., 1984); the same method of analysis applied to the prominences observed at Sacramento Peak (Athay, et al., 1983) provides results in agreement on the most probable magnetic structure of prominences; these results are detailed. The statistical results were confirmed on favorable individual cases: for 15 prominences observed at Pic-du-Midi, the two-field vectors are pointing on the same side of the prominence, and the alpha angles are large enough with respect to the measurements and interpretation inaccuracies, so that the field polarity is derived without any ambiguity.

Bommier, V.↗

On the Probabilistic Analysis of Neural Networks

Neural networks are powerful tools for automated decision-making,seeing increased application in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving. Due to their black-box nature and large scale,reasoning about their behavior is challenging. Statistical analysis is often used to infer probabilistic properties of a network, such as its robustness to noise and inaccurate inputs. While scalable, statistical methods can only provide probabilistic guarantees on the quality of their results and may underestimate the impact of low probability inputs leading to undesired behavior of the network.We investigate here the use of symbolic analysis and constraint solution space quantification to precisely quantify probabilistic properties in neural networks. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed technique in a case study involving the analysis of ACAS-Xu, a collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft control.

neural nets↗

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗

Production of alternate realizations of DESI fiber assignment for unbiased clustering measurement in data and simulations

A critical requirement of spectroscopic large scale structure analyses is correcting for selection of which galaxies to observe from an isotropic target list. This selection is often limited by the hardware used to perform the survey which will impose angular constraints of simultaneously observable targets, requiring multiple passes to observe all of them. In SDSS this manifested solely as the collision of physical fibers and plugs placed in plates. In DESI, there is the additional constraint of the robotic positioner which controls each fiber being limited to a finite patrol radius. A number of approximate methods have previously been proposed to correct the galaxy clustering statistics for these effects, but these generally fail on small scales. To accurately correct the clustering we need to upweight pairs of galaxies based on the inverse probability that those pairs would be observed (Bianchi & Percival 2017). This paper details an implementation of that method to correct the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey for incompleteness. To calculate the required probabilities, we need a set of alternate realizations of DESI where we vary the relative priority of otherwise identical targets. These realizations take the form of alternate Merged Target Ledgers (AMTL), the files that link DESI observations and targets. We present the method used to generate these alternate realizations and how they are tracked forward in time using the real observational record and hardware status, propagating the survey as though the alternate orderings had been adopted. We detail the first applications of this method to the DESI One-Percent Survey (SV3) and the DESI year 1 data. We include evaluations of the pipeline outputs, estimation of survey completeness from this and other methods, and validation of the method using mock galaxy catalogs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An expert system for reliability modeling

A method is presented for computing the probability of failure of a unit during the next usage or mission based on sound statistical techniques. With the use of logit regression embedded in Lotus 1-2-3 macros, this package computes the probability of unit failure based upon a historical data base. Using this computed probability of failure, the package then makes a replacement recommendation based upon the experts acceptable risk parameters.

Goss, Ernst↗

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Cruse, T. A.↗

Searches for Periodic Neutrino Emission from Binary Systems with 22 and 40 Strings of IceCube

Recent observations of GeV /TeV photon emission from several X-ray binaries have sparked a renewed interest in these objects as galactic particle accelerators. In spite of the available multi-wavelength data, their acceleration mechanisms are not determined, and the nature of the accelerated particles (hadrons or leptons) is unknown. While much evidence favors leptonic emission, it is very likely that a hadronic component is also accelerated in the jets of these binary systems. The observation of neutrino emission would be clear evidence for the presence of a hadronic component in the outflow of these sources. In this paper we look for periodic neutrino emission from binary systems. Such modulation, observed in the photon flux, would be caused by the geometry of these systems. The results of two searches are presented that differ in the treatment of the spectral shape and phase of the emission. The 'generic' search allows parameters to vary freely and best fit values, in a 'model-dependent' search, predictions are used to constrain these parameters. We use the IceCube data taken from May 31, 2007 to April 5, 2008 with its 22-string configuration, and from April 5, 2008 and May 20, 2009 with its 40-string configuration. For the generic search and the 40 string sample, we find that the most significant source in the catalog of 7 binary stars is Cygnus X-3 with a 1.8% probability after trials (2.10" sigma one-sided) of being produced by statistical fluctuations of the background. The model-dependent method tested a range of system geometries - the inclination and the massive star's disk size - for LS I+61 deg 303, no significant excess was found.

Abassi, R.↗