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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Impact Analysis of Future Electric Vehicles Using Model of Real Distribution Feeders

Globally, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to increase. This on-going trend poses challenges for power distribution systems. The inclusion of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) should be compatible with a changing energy system, whose structure is becoming increasingly distributed. The impact of future EVs should be analyzed and considered in the system planning and upgrades. In this study, impact analysis of future EVs is conducted for a utility company of U.S. West Coast. Real data of distribution feeders is converted into the GridLAB-D model for running power flow analysis. An estimation of the additional loading of EVs in 2050 is provided by the utility company. Simple mitigation methods are tested to improve voltage profiles and complete this case study.

Xie, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Three-dimensional effects on pure tone fan noise due to inflow distortion

Two dimensional, quasi three dimensional and three dimensional theories for the prediction of pure tone fan noise due to the interaction of inflow distortion with a subsonic annular blade row were studied with the aid of an unsteady three dimensional lifting surface theory. The effects of compact and noncompact source distributions on pure tone fan noise in an annular cascade were investigated. Numerical results show that the strip theory and quasi three-dimensional theory are reasonably adequate for fan noise prediction. The quasi three-dimensional method is more accurate for acoustic power and model structure prediction with an acoustic power estimation error of about plus or minus 2db.

Kobayashi, H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spectroscopic Study of Solar Transition Region Oscillations in the Quiet-Sun Observed By IRIS Using Si IV Spectral Line

In the present paper, we use Si IV 1393.755 Å spectral line observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the quiet-Sun to determine physical nature of the solar transition region (TR) oscillations. We analyze the properties of these oscillations using wavelet tools (e.g., power, cross-power, coherence, and phase difference) along with the stringent noise model (i.e., power-law + constant). We estimate the period of the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each chosen location in the quiet-Sun (QS) and quantify the distribution of the statistically significant power and associated periods in one bright and two dark regions. In the bright TR region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 8 min respectively. In the dark region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 5.4 min respectively. We also estimate the phase difference between the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each location. The statistical distribution of phase difference is estimated, which peaks at -119°± 13°, 33°± 10°, 102°± 10° in the bright region, while at -153°± 13°, 6°± 20°, 151°± 10° in the dark region. The statistical distribution reveals that the oscillations are caused by propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves encountered with the TR. Some of these locations may also be associated with the standing slow waves. Even, in the given time domain, several locations exhibit presence of both propagating and standing oscillations at different frequencies.

Sun: oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence-Aided Wind Plant Optimization for Nationwide Evaluation of Land Use and Economic Benefits of Wake Steering

If clean energy pathways are to harness massive increases in wind power, innovations with broad geographic viability will be needed to support buildout in diverse locations. However, geodiversity in impact potential is seldom captured in technology assessment. Here we propose a scalable approach to plant-level optimization using artificial intelligence to evaluate land sparing and economic benefits of wake steering at more than 6,800 plausible onshore wind locations in the USA. This emerging controls strategy optimizes plant energy production by directing turbine wakes. On the basis of estimates from our artificial intelligence model trained on engineering wind flow simulations, co-optimizing plant layouts with wake steering can reduce land requirements by an average of 18% per plant (site-specific benefits range from 2% to 34%), subject to errors and uncertainties in the flow model, wind resource estimates, buildout scenario and geographic factors. According to model estimates, wake steering is predicted to increase power production during high-value (relatively low wind) periods, boosting the annual revenue of individual plants by up to US$3.7 million (equivalent to US$13,000 MW-1 yr-1) but producing negligible gains in some settings. Consideration of wake steering’s geographic potential reveals divergent nationwide prospects for improved economics and siting flexibility.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updated Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower (2023)

The "Updated Baseline Cost Model (BCM) for Hydropower" is an empirical model for estimating the costs of US hydropower projects in six categories (Non-Powered Dam (NPD), New Stream Development (NSD), Canal/Conduit, Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH), Capacity Expansion, Generator Rewind). The model equations have been estimated with data on existing or planned projects obtained from various sources. NOTE: This is a macro-enabled workbook, so Excel may block it on the first opening. In that case: 1. Save the workbook to a local directory 2. Right-click on the workbook in the local directory and select “Properties” 3. Then check “Unblock” at the bottom of the “General” tab.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to sub-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Thermal control of the solar electric propulsion stage

The thermal control requirements consist of functional requirements related to the various mission phase natural environments, operational requirements of induced power loadings by the solar electric propulsion stage subsystems, and design temperature limits for performance and reliability. The design approach utilizes passive thermal control techniques combining insulation, surface coatings, and sunshields with thermostatically controlled louvers. Heaters are used to regulate certain temperatures for extreme conditions. Details regarding the thruster array thermal control design are discussed, giving attention to the parameters used in the mathematical model, questions of conductive coupling, and thruster estimated power distribution.

Ruttner, L. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Lunar PMAD technology assessment

This report documents an initial set of power conditioning models created to generate 'ballpark' power management and distribution (PMAD) component mass and size estimates. It contains converter, rectifier, inverter, transformer, remote bus isolator (RBI), and remote power controller (RPC) models. These models allow certain studies to be performed; however, additional models are required to assess a full range of PMAD alternatives. The intent is to eventually form a library of PMAD models that will allow system designers to evaluate various power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently. The models in this report are designed primarily for space exploration initiative (SEI) missions requiring continuous power and supporting manned operations. The mass estimates were developed by identifying the stages in a component and obtaining mass breakdowns for these stages from near term electronic hardware elements. Technology advances were then incorporated to generate hardware masses consistent with the 2000 to 2010 time period. The mass of a complete component is computed by algorithms that calculate the masses of the component stages, control and monitoring, enclosure, and thermal management subsystem.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya↗
DOE OSTI2024

FLOWERS AEP: An Analytical Model for Wind Farm Layout Optimization

Annual energy production (AEP) is commonly used in objective functions for wind farm layout optimization. AEP is proportional to wind farm power production integrated over an annual distribution of free-stream wind conditions. Physics-based estimates of wind farm power production typically rely on low-fidelity engineering wake models that approximate the steady-state wind farm flow field. AEP estimates are then obtained by performing independent simulations for discrete wind conditions and using rectangular quadrature to account for each condition's expected frequency of occurrence. Depending on the number of simulated discrete wind conditions, this numerical integral could be hampered by poor accuracy or high computational costs. The FLOWERS AEP model instead poses an analytical integral of the engineering wake model over the variable wind conditions, yielding a closed-form, analytical function for wind farm AEP. This paper derives the analytical functions for FLOWERS AEP and its derivatives with respect to turbine position, which are useful for gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, in nondimensional form. We then analyze the benefits of the FLOWERS AEP model over conventional reference models, focusing on its low cost, adequate wake loss predictions, and smooth design space. Although the FLOWERS approach is found to predict the exact value of AEP with some error relative to the reference model (within 14% on average), it dramatically reduces computation time by an order of magnitude, produces a qualitatively similar design space at relatively low resolution, and yields comparable optimal layouts. This significant speed improvement is critical in layout optimization applications, where determining an optimal layout in an efficient manner is more important than precise AEP prediction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗