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At least 127 records · Page 7

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-Arctic tundra

Abstract Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Models, improved knowledge of local-to-regional scale patterns, rates, and controls on decadal shrub expansion is required. Using fine-scale remote sensing, we modeled the drivers of patch-scale tall-shrub expansion over 68 years across the central Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Models show the heterogeneous patterns of tall-shrub expansion are not only predictable but have an upper limit defined by permafrost, climate, and edaphic gradients, two-thirds of which have yet to be colonized. These observations suggest that increased nitrogen inputs from nitrogen-fixing alders contributed to a positive feedback that advanced overall tall-shrub expansion. These findings will be useful for constraining and projecting vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of stacking and phonon environment on energy transfer in organic chromophores: computational insights

Energy transfer in organic materials is extensively studied due to many applications in optoelectronics. The electronic and vibrational relaxations within molecular assemblies can be influenced by stacking arrangements or additions of a backbone that unites them. Here, we present the computational study of the photoexcitation dynamics of a perylene diimide monomer, and face-to-face stacked dimer and trimer. By using non-Energy transfer in organic materials is extensively studied due to many applications in optoelectronics. The electronic and vibrational relaxations within molecular assemblies can be influenced by stacking arrangements or additions of a backbone that unites them. In this work, we present the computational study of the photoexcitation dynamics of a perylene diimide monomer, and face-to-face stacked dimer and trimer. By using non-adiabatic excited-state molecular dynamics simulations, we show that the non-radiative relaxation is accelerated with the number of stacked molecules. This effect is explained by differences in the energy splitting between states that impacts their corresponding nonadiabatic couplings. Additionally, our analysis of the vibronic dynamics reveals that the passage through the different conical intersections that participate in the relaxation of the stacked systems, activate a positive feedback mechanism. This effect involves a narrow set of vibrational normal modes that accelerate the process by increasing the efficiency of its vibronic dynamics. In contrast, an addition of a biologically inspired backbone slows down the relaxation rate due to its participation in the vibronic dynamics of the molecular stacking arrangements. Our results suggest the stacking arrangements and common backbones as strategies to modulate the efficiency of electronic and vibrational relaxation of diimide-based systems and other molecular aggregates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Control of internal transport barriers in magnetically confined tokamak burning plasmas

The initiation, termination, and control of internal transport barriers associated with E × B flow shear near local minima of magnetic shear are examined for burning plasmas to determine if the positive feedback loops between profiles, instability, transport, and flow shear operate in regimes with fusion self-heating. A five-field transport model for the evolution of profiles of density, ion and electron temperature, ion and electron fluctuations, and radial electric field is utilized to examine the efficacy of controls associated with external inputs of heat and particles, including neutral beam injection, RF, pellets, and gas puffing. The response of the plasma to these inputs is studied in the presence of self-heating. The latter is affected by the external inputs and their modification of profiles and is, therefore, not an external control. Provided sufficient external power is applied, internal transport barriers can be created and controlled, both in ion and electron channels. Barrier control is sensitive to the locations of power deposition and pellet ablation, as well as temporal sequencing of external inputs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time dependent model for non-inductive ECH X-I current ramp-up for SHPD tokamak facility

Non-inductive (NI) plasma current start-up and ramp-up is an important research topic for spherical tokamak (ST) based reactors and fusion pilot plant (FPP). For a compact FPP, the OH flux availability is highly restricted due to its compact geometry. Efficient fundamental extraordinary mode (X-I) electron cyclotron heating (ECH) current start-up and ramp-up regime was identified for a reactor-like high toroidal magnetic field range which has more than a hundred times higher current drive efficiency compared to more conventional ECH methods for the relevant start-up temperature range. High current drive efficiency is possible due to the strong X-I fundamental ECH interaction only with unidirectional passing electrons constrained by the wave accessibility conditions. Here, we extend the X-I electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) investigation to a time dependent model to simulate the non-inductive current ramp-up to 10 MA for the Sustained High-Power Density (SHPD) facility. As the X-I ECCD driven current I EC rises, due to the back EMF driven negative current, the net plasma current Ip rises more slowly with the current resistive time scale. For tokamak confinement time (both L-mode and H-Mode) which tends to rise with I p , a positive feedback results and even with constant applied ECH power, T e0 , I EC , and I p can continue to rise to very high values. However, in a realistic situation, the T e0 rise should saturate due to a number of factors such as enhanced core radiation and increased power loss at high temperature. To simulate this effect, we adopt a maximum T e0 model which would limit the temperature rise to certain T e0 . With this model, we investigated the current ramp-up for various ECH power levels and the maximum T e0 of 15, 20, and 25 keV. We find that while the power required is reduced with increasing T e0 limit due to increased current drive efficiency, the time to reach 10 MA tends to go up due to the reduced plasma resistivity for the higher T e0 limit. We also find for a given Te0 limit, the time to reach 10 MA tends to be reduced by increasing the applied ECH power by over driving the current ramp-up where I EC is driven at significantly higher level than 10 MA. While the current ramp-up time may not be an issue for the steady-state reactor systems, if it is desirable to minimize the current ramp-up time, it is prudent to have a sufficient ECH power for current over-drive and have some T e0 limiting tools such as impurity seeding for enhanced radiation. In conclusion, a well-controlled NI ECH start-up also has a potential of improving the tokamak start-up reliability and avoid run-away electrons while the NI off-axis current drive could enhance MHD stability and plasma performance improvements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gyrokinetic simulations of core turbulence and thermal transport in the high-β P discharge on EAST

The properties of core turbulence and thermal transport are investigated for EAST high-β P (β P ~ 3.1) plasmas with dominant electron heating (Te/Ti > 1) via gyrokinetic simulation with the NLT code. Linear simulations identify that the electrostatic η e -driven trapped electron mode (η e -TEM) dominates in the core region (ρ< 0.7) and the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode dominates in the out region (ρ≥ 0.7), consistent with the linear threshold analysis of micro-instabilities. Sensitivity analysis shows that the normalized electron density gradient (R/L ne ) and ITG (R/L Ti ) are two effective parameters to stabilize TEM instability. Nonlinear simulations are also carried out and compared with the experimental results, which show that the electron thermal internal transport barrier (ITB) in EAST high-β P plasma is determined by the TEM-induced turbulence. A higher zonal flow shearing rate is observed in the ITB region (0.2 < ρ < 0.34), which can regulate energy transport induced by TEM turbulence and facilitate the formation of e-ITB. A plausible positive feedback mechanism to mitigate turbulence transport and improve energy confinement via enhanced ion heating is proposed for future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Nonlinear burn control in ITER using adaptive allocation of actuators with uncertain dynamics

Abstract ITER will be the first tokamak to sustain a fusion-producing, or burning, plasma. If the plasma temperature were to inadvertently rise in this burning regime, the positive correlation between temperature and the fusion reaction rate would establish a destabilizing positive feedback loop. Careful regulation of the plasma’s temperature and density, or burn control, is required to prevent these potentially reactor-damaging thermal excursions, neutralize disturbances and improve performance. In this work, a Lyapunov-based burn controller is designed using a full zero-dimensional nonlinear model. An adaptive estimator manages destabilizing uncertainties in the plasma confinement properties and the particle recycling conditions (caused by plasma–wall interactions). The controller regulates the plasma density with requests for deuterium and tritium particle injections. In ITER-like plasmas, the fusion-born alpha particles will primarily heat the plasma electrons, resulting in different electron and ion temperatures in the core. By considering separate response models for the electron and ion energies, the proposed controller can independently regulate the electron and ion temperatures by requesting that different amounts of auxiliary power be delivered to the electrons and ions. These two commands for a specific control effort (electron and ion heating) are sent to an actuator allocation module that optimally maps them to the heating actuators available to ITER: an electron cyclotron heating system (20 MW), an ion cyclotron heating system (20 MW), and two neutral beam injectors (16.5 MW each). Two different actuator allocators are presented in this work. The first actuator allocator finds the optimal mapping by solving a convex quadratic program that includes actuator saturation and rate limits. It is nonadaptive and assumes that the mapping between the commanded control efforts and the allocated actuators (i.e. the effector model) contains no uncertainties. The second actuator allocation module has an adaptive estimator to handle uncertainties in the effector model. This uncertainty includes actuator efficiencies, the fractions of neutral beam heating that are deposited into the plasma electrons and ions, and the tritium concentration of the fueling pellets. Furthermore, the adaptive allocator considers actuator dynamics (actuation lag) that contain uncertainty. This adaptive allocation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the aforementioned nonadaptive allocator because it is computed using dynamic update laws so that finding the solution to a static optimization problem is not required at every time step. A simulation study assesses the performance of the proposed adaptive burn controller augmented with each of the actuator allocation modules.

Physics↗

Effect of coherent edge-localized mode on transition to high-performance hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

This paper deals with one of the origins and trigger mechanisms responsible for the observed performance enhancements in the hybrid scenario experiments conducted in Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR). The major contribution to the performance improvement comes from a broader and higher pedestal formation. The increase of fast ion pressure due to a plasma density decrease also contributes substantially to the global beta. Although the reduced core plasma volume resulting from the pedestal expansion has a negative effect on the core thermal energy, a considerable confinement improvement observed in the inner core region limits the degradation. The one significant characteristic of high-performance discharges is the presence of Coherent Edge-localized Mode (CEM) activity. CEM is triggered during the pedestal recovery phase between typical ELM crashes and has been found to be related to the increase of particle and heat transport. It appears to underlie two commonly observed phenomena in high-performance hybrid scenario discharges in KSTAR; pedestal broadening and continuous density decrease. Despite the associated transport increase, CEM activities can induce performance enhancement. With the pedestal broadening, ELM crashes become delayed and weakened, which, in turn, allows for a higher pedestal. Moreover, the density decrease directly increases fast ion pressure by extending the beam-slowing-down time. The linear gyrokinetic analysis reveals that the increase of fast ions could initiate positive feedback loops, leading to the stabilization of Ion Temperature Gradient mode in the inner core region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding the formation of a low-pressure pedestal in the presence of a strong internal transport barrier in DIII-D high β p plasmas

As a promising scenario for fusion reactors, the high poloidal-beta (β P ) scenario is characterized by a strong large radius internal transport barrier (ITB), which significantly enhances the overall confinement quality and the bootstrap current fraction for fully non-inductive operation. It is frequently observed that in the presence of a strong ITB, the pedestal height is lower and is accompanied by small edge localized modes (ELMs), which further improves the compatibility of a high performance core with an edge solution. A mechanism for the formation of the low pedestal is proposed in this paper. It is found that the strong ITB creates an off-axis bootstrap current to clamp the local safety factor q, and thus the magnetic shear in the outer core/pedestal region is increased. Gyrokinetic simulations with the CGYRO code show that the higher magnetic shear brings the experimental profiles into the range where the growth rate of drift-wave instabilities and thus transport is higher, and therefore a lower pedestal gradient is expected. Here, the combination of low pedestal and high magnetic shear further enhances the turbulent transport across the whole pedestal, consistent with power balance analysis. Such a positive feedback mechanism ultimately results in a lower pressure pedestal as observed in experiments. Under such a low pedestal, linear simulations with BOUT++ predict the growth rates of peeling–ballooning modes to be lower across the whole toroidal mode number spectra, and the nonlinear BOUT++ simulation exhibits lower saturated fluctuation intensity as well, consistent with the experimentally observed lower ELM size.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Wildfire exacerbates high-latitude soil carbon losses from climate warming

Abstract Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Functional team selection as a framework for local adaptation in plants and their belowground microbiomes

Abstract Multicellular organisms are hosts to diverse communities of smaller organisms known as microbiomes. Plants have distinctive microbiomes that can provide important functions related to nutrition, defense, and stress tolerance. Empirical studies provide convincing evidence that in some—but not all—circumstances, belowground microbiomes help plants adapt to their local environment. The purpose of this review is to develop functional team selection (FTS) as a framework to help predict the conditions necessary for root microbiomes to generate local adaptation for their plant hosts. FTS envisions plants and their microbiomes as complex adaptive systems, and plant adaptations as emergent properties of these systems. If plants have the capacity to recognize and cultivate beneficial microbes and suppress pathogens, then it is possible for plants to evolve the capacity to gain adaptations by curating their microbiome. In resource-limited and stressful environments, the emergent functions of complex microbial systems may contribute to positive feedback linked to plant vigor, and ultimately, local adaptation. The key factors in this process are: (i) selective force, (ii) host constitution, (iii) microbial diversity, and (iv) time. There is increasing interest in harnessing beneficial microbial interactions in agriculture and many microbial growth-promoting products are commercially available, but their use is controversial because a large proportion of these products fail to consistently enhance plant growth. The FTS framework may help direct the development of durable plant-microbiome systems that enhance crop production and diminish pathogens. It may also provide valuable insights for understanding and managing other kinds of host-microbe systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanism of shape symmetry breaking in surfactant-mediated crystal growth

We present a dynamical model of crystal growth, in which it is possible to reliably achieve asymmetric products, beginning from symmetric initial conditions and growing within an isotropic environment. The asymmetric growth is the result of a positive feedback mechanism that amplifies the effect of thermal fluctuations in the coverage of surfactants on the growing crystalline facets. Within our simple model, we are able to understand the kinetic and thermodynamic factors involved in both the onset of symmetry breaking and the persistence of anisotropic growth. We demonstrate that the mechanism is general by studying models with increasing complexity. We argue that this mechanism of symmetry breaking underpins observations of colloidal, seed-mediated syntheses of single crystalline metal nanorods capped with strongly interacting surfactants. The parameters within our model are related to experimental observables such as the concentration, hydrophobicity, and binding strength of the surfactants, which suggests a potential route to optimize the yield of asymmetric products in colloidal nanoparticle syntheses.

Oaks-Leaf, Sam↗

Invariant Forms of Dissolution Fingers

Dissolution of fractured and porous media introduces a positive feedback between fluid flow and reactant transport, leading to the emergence of pronounced, fingerlike channels. We investigate the formation of these structures using a microfluidic Hele-Shaw cell with a soluble bottom. Our experiments show that the shape of dissolution fingers is invariant and reveals itself over time as the fingers extend into the system. Here, by combining reactive-transport theory and conformal mapping techniques we derive these invariant forms. We relate these results to natural dissolution fingers in karst landscapes, and illustrate how to determine the groundwater flow rate responsible for their formation based on the finger shape.

Flows in porous media↗

Interplay of Electrode Heterogeneity and Lithium Plating

Lateral microstructure heterogeneity in anodes is known to induce nonuniform current density, state of charge, and lithium plating. This means that such electrode heterogeneity can limit the fast charging of lithium-ion batteries. In this work, a combination of experiments and simulation is employed to understand the effect of mm scale lateral heterogeneity on cell aging. A previously developed model was extended to efficiently simulate SEI formation and Li plating for independent regions of an electrode. The model consists of three parallel regions each described under a P2D framework and with a distinct ionic resistance and possibly active material loading. The results suggest that during fast charge when the active material is uniformly distributed across the three regions, the region with the highest resistance reaches the end of life sooner than the other regions. There is also positive feedback from Li metal filling the pores near the separator interface that further accelerates lithium plating. Lastly, when there is a non-uniform active material distribution associated with the ionic resistance heterogeneity, tight competition between regions can occur, leading to less overall lithium plating and plating that is more uniform between regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of Lagrangian Superdroplet and Eulerian Double-Moment Spectral Microphysics Schemes in Large-Eddy Simulations of an Isolated Cumulus Congestus Cloud

Abstract Advanced microphysics schemes (such as Eulerian bin and Lagrangian superdroplet) are becoming standard tools for cloud physics research and parameterization development. This study compares a double-moment bin scheme and a Lagrangian superdroplet scheme via large-eddy simulations of nonprecipitating and precipitating cumulus congestus clouds. Cloud water mixing ratio in the bin simulations is reduced compared to the Lagrangian simulations in the upper part of the cloud, likely from numerical diffusion, which is absent in the Lagrangian approach. Greater diffusion in the bin simulations is compensated by more secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base), leading to similar or somewhat higher droplet number concentrations and smaller mean droplet radius than the Lagrangian simulations for the nonprecipitating case. The bin scheme also produces a significantly larger standard deviation of droplet radius than the superdroplet method, likely due to diffusion associated with the vertical advection of bin variables. However, the spectral width in the bin simulations is insensitive to the grid spacing between 50 and 100 m, suggesting other mechanisms may be compensating for diffusion as the grid spacing is modified. For the precipitating case, larger spectral width in the bin simulations initiates rain earlier and enhances rain development in a positive feedback loop. However, with time, rain formation in the superdroplet simulations catches up to the bin simulations. Offline calculations using the same drop size distributions in both schemes show that the different numerical methods for treating collision–coalescence also contribute to differences in rain formation. The stochastic collision–coalescence in the superdroplet method introduces more variability in drop growth for a given rain mixing ratio.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗