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At least 127 records · Page 7

Numerical simulation of advection fog formation on multi-disperse aerosols due to combustion-related pollutants

The effects of multi-disperse distribution of the aerosol population are presented. Single component and multi-component aerosol species on the condensation/nucleation processes which affect the reduction in visibility are described. The aerosol population with a high particle concentration provided more favorable conditions for the formation of a denser fog than the aerosol population with a greater particle size distribution when the value of the mass concentration of the aerosols was kept constant. The results were used as numerical predictions of fog formation. Two dimensional observations in horizontal and vertical coordinates, together with time-dependent measurements were needed as initial values for the following physical parameters: (1)wind profiles; (2) temperature profiles; (3) humidity profiles; (4) mass concentration of aerosol particles; (5) particle size distribution of aerosols; and (6) chemical composition of aerosols. Formation and dissipation of advection fog, thus, can be forecasted numerically by introducing initial values obtained from the observations.

Hung, R. J.

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Transit buses operate primarily in dense urban areas, where nearby populations face increased exposure to fine particulates, nitrogen oxides, and other harmful pollutants. Electrifying transit buses presents a clear opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. However, widespread adoption may pose significant energy and infrastructure challenges, which can be mitigated through proactive planning and investment. This report presents a robust modeling framework and an initial estimation of the hourly electricity demand at transit bus depots across the United States. The resulting depot-level dataset, available at data.nrel.gov/submissions/282, provides valuable insights for infrastructure planning and electricity demand forecasting, supporting the scalable electrification of transit bus fleets nationwide.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Semi-Analytic Forecasts for JWST– V. AGN Luminosity Functions and Helium Reionization at z= 2–7

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) forming in the early universe are thought to be the pri-mary source of hard ionizing photons contributing to the reionization of intergalactic helium. However, the number density and spectral properties of high-redshift AGN remain largely unconstrained. In this work, we make use of physically-informed mod-els calibrated with a wide variety of available observations to provide estimates for the role of AGN throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We present AGN luminosity functions in various bands between z= 2 to 7 predicted by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, which includes modelling of black hole accretion and AGN feedback. We then combine the predicted AGN populations with a physical spectral model for self-consistent estimates of ionizing photon production rates, which depend on the mass and accretion rate of the accreting supermassive black hole. We then couple the predicted comoving ionizing emissivity with an analytic model to compute the subsequent reionization history of intergalactic helium and hydrogen. This work demonstrates the potential of coupling physically motivated analytic or semi-analytic techniques to capture multi-scale physical processes across a vast range of scales (here, from AGN accretion disks to cosmological scales). Our physical model predicts an in-trinsic ionizing photon budget well above many of the estimates in the literature, meaning that helium reionization can comfortably be accomplished even with a rel-atively low escape fraction. We also make predictions for the AGN populations that are expected to be detected in future James Webb Space Telescope surveys

L Y Aaron Yung

NASA's Water Solutions Using Remote Sensing

NASA Water Resources works within Earth sciences to leverage investments of space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities into water resources management decision support tools for the sustainable use of water. Earth science satellite observations and modelling products provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of the water cycle. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. The NASA Water Resources Program has the objective to provide NASA products to help deal with these issues with the goal for the sustainable use of water. The Water Resources program organizes its projects under five functional themes: 1) stream-flow and flood forecasting; 2) water consumptive use (includes evapotranspiration) and irrigation; 3) drought; 4) water quality; and 5) climate and water resources. NASA primarily works with national and international groups such as other US government agencies (NOAA, EPA, USGS, USAID) and various other groups to maximize the widest use of the water products. A summary of NASA's water activities linked to helping solve issues for developing countries will be highlighted.

Toll, David

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Non-NASA Center

Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (P<.01), LF (P<.01), VLF (P<.05), and TP (P<.01) and the nonlinear measure DFA (P<.05) were predictors of survival over a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years; other measures, including ApEn (P>.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

Non-NASA Center

Development and Validation of a Computational Model for Predicting the Behavior of Plumes from Large Solid Rocket Motors

Exhaust plumes from large solid rocket motors fired at ATK's Promontory test site carry particulates to high altitudes and typically produce deposits that fall on regions downwind of the test area. As populations and communities near the test facility grow, ATK has become increasingly concerned about the impact of motor testing on those surrounding communities. To assess the potential impact of motor testing on the community and to identify feasible mitigation strategies, it is essential to have a tool capable of predicting plume behavior downrange of the test stand. A software package, called PlumeTracker, has been developed and validated at ATK for this purpose. The code is a point model that offers a time-dependent, physics-based description of plume transport and precipitation. The code can utilize either measured or forecasted weather data to generate plume predictions. Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data and field observations from twenty-three historical motor test fires at Promontory were collected to test the predictive capability of PlumeTracker. Model predictions for plume trajectories and deposition fields were found to correlate well with the collected dataset.

Wells, Jason E.

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Remote Sensing of Snow Cover: Snow Extent - Section

Snow was easily identified in the first image obtained from the Television Infrared Operational Satellite-1 (TIROS-1) weather satellite in 1960 because the high albedo of snow presents a good contrast with most other natural surfaces. Subsequently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began to map snow using satellite-borne instruments in 1966. Snow plays an important role in the Earth s energy balance, causing more solar radiation to be reflected back into space as compared to most snow-free surfaces. Seasonal snow cover also provides a critical water resource through meltwater emanating from rivers that originate from high-mountain areas such as the Tibetan Plateau. Meltwater from mountain snow packs flows to some of the world s most densely-populated areas such as Southeast Asia, benefiting over 1 billion people (Immerzeel et al., 2010). In this section, we provide a brief overview of the remote sensing of snow cover using visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and passive-microwave (PM) data. Snow can be mapped using the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum, even in darkness and through cloud cover, but at a coarser spatial resolution than when using VNIR data. Fusing VNIR and PM algorithms to produce a blended product offers synergistic benefits. Snow-water equivalent (SWE), snow extent, and melt onset are important parameters for climate models and for the initialization of atmospheric forecasts at daily and seasonal time scales. Snowmelt data are also needed as input to hydrological models to improve flood control and irrigation management.

Hall, Dorothy K.

Shared and Ownership Mobility Technologies in the US: Data Availability and Usage Trends

This report supports the vision for a more sustainable transportation future by summarizing and analyzing the latest data on new mobility technologies, including ridesharing, shared and privately owned bikes, e-bikes, and scooters that have emerged over the past two decades. Having access to accurate and current data that is representative of new mobility systems and individual usage of these systems across different parts of the country is critical for researchers, city and regional planning professionals, and current and potential industry technology developers to better understand and forecast usage trends both nationwide as well as across different existing and potential future markets across the country. Building on the previous study published in 2022, this report incorporates the latest available market and usage data on new mobility technologies and compares usage by Chicago and New York City demographic characteristics. Moreover, this report includes recent developments and insights on privately owned micromobility technologies. Our analysis found that more downtown areas in Chicago show high per capita usage for all three modes than in the previous study, likely due to the full launch of shared e-scooter systems citywide in 2022. Notably, the majority of high shared mobility usage is concentrated in high-income, densely populated downtown areas in Chicago, which also have good public transit access. In contrast, TNC and bikeshare usage hotspots in central Manhattan are more widely distributed, though also appear to be shaped by the geography of the public transit system. Analysis of privately owned micromobility shows that the greatest energy savings occurred when e-bikes replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (i.e., gasoline-powered cars driven alone). Based on the literature review and analysis results, we also make recommendations for supporting the development of both shared and privately owned micromobility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Informing Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) Conservation Through Habitat Modeling and Forecasted Land Cover Change

The carnivorous Dionaea muscipula (Venus flytrap, Droseraceae) is threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. For rare plant species like D. muscipula with specialized habitat requirements and fragmented distribution, habitat suitability modeling is an important method for guiding conservation efforts. To support the D. muscipula conservation, this study: 1) modeled suitable habitat across the extent of the species’ known range and 2) forecasted land cover change due to development in the study area to the year 2050. Habitat modeling was conducted by overlaying high-confidence presence data observed since 1980 (n=292) with environmental predictor variables (n=23). Suitable habitats were then compared with land cover change to identify areas at risk of habitat loss due to human development. According to those models, nearly half (107.1km2) of modeled highly suitable D. muscipula habitat outside of protected lands are likely to face development pressure. On the other hand, 39.4% (139.9km2) of highly suitable habitats overlap with protected lands and may serve as lasting D. muscipula habitat. Results from this study can inform D. muscipula conservation, including targeted seed banking of populations at risk of extirpation, prioritization of habitats for protection and management, and reintroduction to suitable habitats within protected areas.

Kathryn Caruso

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.

Application of Advanced Earth Observations and Model Simulations to Improve Air Quality Monitoring in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region

Air pollution is a serious environmental health concern in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of south-central Asia, as rapid industrialization and population growth have led to increased anthropogenic emissions from transportation, residential, industrial, energy, and biomass burning sources. Natural emissions from dust and forest fires are additional sources of air pollutants that can exacerbate air quality in the region. The combination of the complex pollutant mixtures and atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon can visibility reductions and hazardous air quality from persistent haze episodes. The Kathmandu Valley is especially vulnerable to extreme haze issues due to the surrounding mountains that restrict air movement and retains pollutants in the atmosphere. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with ground-based networks to provide a comprehensive data toolkit for advancing air quality monitoring and forecasting decisions in the HKH region. The toolkit includes new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager, which provide high spatiotemporal information on NO2, HCHO, SO2, O3, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) are derived from the satellite-retrieved AOD using ground-based observations and forecast model data. The satellite observations are also used to initialize and constrain forecast model systems designed for the HKH region. This talk will highlight the performance of the air quality toolkit for enhancing decision-making processes during exceptional air quality events in the region. Note: Presentation includes additional attachment of full presentation with sound and animation (best when viewed as slide show) with runtime of 15 min 32 secs

Aaron Naeger

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

The ocean plays an essential role in regulating Earth’s climate, influencing weather conditions, providing sustenance for large populations, moderating anthropogenic climate change, encompassing massive biodiversity, and sustaining the global economy. Human activities are changing the oceans, stressing ocean health, threatening the critical services the ocean provides to society, with significant consequences for human well-being and safety, and economic prosperity. Effective and sustainable monitoring of the physical, biogeochemical state and ecosystem structure of the ocean, to enable climate adaptation, carbon management and sustainable marine resource management is urgently needed. The Argo program, a cornerstone of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has revolutionized ocean observation by providing real-time, freely accessible global temperature and salinity data of the upper 2,000m of the ocean (Core Argo) using cost-effective simple robotics. For the past 25 years, Argo data have underpinned many ocean, climate and weather forecasting services, playing a fundamental role in safeguarding goods and lives. Argo data have enabled clearer assessments of ocean warming, sea level change and underlying driving processes, as well as scientific breakthroughs while supporting public awareness and education. Building on Argo’s success, OneArgo aims to greatly expand Argo’s capabilities by 2030, expanding to full-ocean depth, collecting biogeochemical parameters, and observing the rapidly changing polar regions. Providing a synergistic subsurface and global extension to several key space-based Earth Observation missions and GOOS components, OneArgo will enable biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasting and new long-term climate predictions for which the deep ocean is a key component. Driving forward a revolution in our understanding of marine ecosystems and the poorly-measured polar and deep oceans, OneArgo will be instrumental to assess sea level change, ocean carbon fluxes, acidification and deoxygenation. Emerging OneArgo applications include new views of ocean mixing, ocean bathymetry and sediment transport, and ecosystem resilience assessment. Implementing OneArgo requires about $100 million annually, a significant increase compared to present Argo funding. OneArgo is a strategic and cost-effective investment which will provide decision-makers, in both government and industry, with the critical knowledge needed to navigate the present and future environmental challenges, and safeguard both the ocean and human wellbeing for generations to come.

ARGO

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2013

Topics include: Cryogenic Liquid Sample Acquisition System for Remote Space Applications; 5 Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF); GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters; Integrating a Microwave Radiometer into Radar Hardware for Simultaneous Data Collection Between the Instruments; Rapid Detection of Herpes Viruses for Clinical Applications; High-Speed Data Recorder for Space, Geodesy, and Other High-Speed Recording Applications; Datacasting V3.0; An All-Solid-State, Room-Temperature, Heterodyne Receiver for Atmospheric Spectroscopy at 1.2 THz; Stacked Transformer for Driver Gain and Receive Signal Splitting; Wireless Integrated Microelectronic Vacuum Sensor System; Fabrication Method for LOBSTER-Eye Optics in <110> Silicon; Compact Focal Plane Assembly for Planetary Science; Fabrication Methods for Adaptive Deformable Mirrors; Visiting Vehicle Ground Trajectory Tool; Workflow-Based Software Development Environment; Mobile Thread Task Manager; A Kinematic Calibration Process for Flight Robotic Arms; Magnetostrictive Alternator; Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites for Optical and Compliant Mechanisms; Detection of Only Viable Bacterial Spores Using a Live/Dead Indicator in Mixed Populations; and Intravenous Fluid Generation System.

Source record

Rhode Island Ecological Conservation: Methods for Monitoring Rhode Island Habitats: Contributing to a Framework for Targeted Conservation and Management

Global avian population decline since the 1970s is largely attributable to habitat loss and degradation from anthropogenic disturbances. NASA DEVELOP’s Rhode Island Ecological Conservation team partnered with the Audubon Society of Rhode Island to compute land use land cover (LULC) maps of Rhode Island to aid in the conservation of the state’s 140 bird species. This project aimed to support the partner’s land acquisition strategies with updated and specific LULC classifications showing potential bird-habitat locations across the state. We incorporated remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 and 9 Operational Land Imager (OLI) into LULC maps using unsupervised classification techniques in ArcGIS Pro and supervised classification in Google Earth Engine. We generated six land classifications for 2023, which showed land cover dominated by upland habitats (forests, scrub/shrub, and grasslands), followed by development. We used TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler to forecast LULC change through 2043, using 2011 and 2021 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) land cover maps derived from Landsat 8 and 9 imagery. Project results suggest that non-urban upland and wetland habitats will decrease over time, while development will continue to encroach on non-urban avian habitats. Our maps and associated data will allow for more efficient land acquisition and management efforts to support avian habitat conservation across Rhode Island. Our study shows that data acquisition and processing from open data sources is feasible and further analysis can be done through GIS classification tools. More analysis is needed beyond this study to obtain more detailed land cover maps, though Audubon can aid its targeted conservation efforts with our current, historic, and forecasted LULC maps.

Remote sensing

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions during Tropical Deep Convection: Evidence for the Importance of Free Tropospheric Aerosols

NASA's 2002 CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment focused on the formation and evolution of tropical cirrus cloud systems in southern Florida. Multiple aircraft extensively sampled cumulonimbus dynamical and microphysical properties, as well as characterizing ambient aerosol populations both inside and outside the full depth of the convective column. On July 18, unique measurements were taken when a powerful updraft was traversed directly by aircraft, providing a window into the primary source region of cumulonimbus anvil crystals. Observations of the updraft, entered at approximately l0 km altitude and -34 C, indicated more than 200 cloud particles per mL at vertical velocities exceeding 20 m/s and the presence of significant condensation nuclei and liquid water within the core. In this work, aerosol and cloud phase observations are integrated by simulating the updraft conditions using a large-eddy resolving model with 3 explicit multiphase microphysics, including treatment of size-resolved aerosol fields, aerosol activation and freezing, and evaporation of cloud particles back to the aerosol phase. Simulations were initialized with observed thermodynamic and aerosol size distributions profiles and convection was driven by surface fluxes assimilated from the ARPS forecast model. Model results are consistent with the conclusions that most crystals are homogeneously frozen droplets and that entrained free tropospheric aerosols may contribute a significant fraction of the crystals. Thus most anvil crystals appear to be formed aloft in updraft cores, well above cloud base. These conclusions are supported by observations of hydrometeor size distribution made while traversing the dore, as well as aerosol and cloud particle size distributions generally observed by aircraft below 4km and crystal properties generally observed by aircraft above 12km.

Ackerman, A.