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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal District Heating in the United States: 2021 Update

As of 2021, there are 23 geothermal district heating (GDH) systems in the United States. Most are over 30 years old. This paper presents an overview of GDH development in the United States and the performance of GDH systems over time. Calculations of the estimated levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for existing U.S. GDH systems were made using NREL's GEOPHIRES tool. Estimated LCOH for existing U.S. GDH systems ranges from $15 to $105/MWhth. This paper explores other factors in GDH development such as resource and system size, capacity factor, and the role of policy. U.S. GDH utilization and deployment are compared to worldwide trends. Results show that the market for GDH in the United States has been weak over the past 40 years due to the combination of inexpensive fossil fuel alternatives (mostly natural gas), lack of incentives focused on heating/cooling, and other factors. Future opportunities for increased GDH deployment in the United States related to increased demand for low-carbon heating and cooling solutions (driven by decarbonization goals in the residential, commercial and industrial heating/cooling sectors, and particularly aggressive ones on college campuses) are outlined. Lastly, this paper identifies policy mechanisms that have been implemented in other countries to incentivize GDH (such as financial incentives targeting GDH, geothermal risk reduction mechanisms, carbon prices benefiting low-carbon heat production, and others).

geothermal district heating↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regulatory and Policy Considerations for the Reuse and End-of-Life Management of Solar and Batteries in the U.S.

The demand for solar photovoltaics (PV) and lithium-ion batteries (LIB) is expected to continue in the U.S. as the call for solar is projected to quadruple by 2030 to meet renewable energy and decarbonization goals. The expected demand for PV and LIB brings supply chain concerns and a growing need for a circular economy for PV and LIB materials. Domestic reuse and recycling is one potential circular economy solution for PV and LIB. This presentation explores the current U.S. law and regulatory landscape for the reuse and recycling of PV and LIB materials, and how certain policy frameworks impact reuse and end-of-life management decisions for PV and LIB materials.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

MOPED: An Alternative Workflow for HERON

MOPED is an alternate workflow to HERON. Preliminary tests display computational advantages of MOPED in terms of run time. While maintaining these advantages, solution convergence remained similar.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supporting U.S. National Security Through Cybersecurity Partnerships

At NLR, we're studying energy evolutions and threats to understand the challenges they pose and uncover ways to leverage grid advancements to achieve more secure, defensible, and reliable systems. Our integrated research approach bridges the gap between cyber threats and real-world consequences to deliver actionable solutions that reduce vulnerabilities and help strengthen U.S. national security.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interconnection Roadmap: Transforming Bulk Transmission Interconnection by 2035

The U.S. electricity system is amid a rapidly occurring and widespread energy transition. Regional, Tribal, state, and customer demand for new energy resources, combined with favorable policies, is driving a rapid rise of interconnection requests. Interconnection processes will need to evolve to handle this larger number of requests today and into the future, as policy and economic drivers continue to motivate significant resource development. This roadmap identifies and organizes nearer- and longer-term solutions to enable transmission interconnection processes to meet this expected demand, and it is intended for a diverse audience of stakeholders participating within transmission interconnection processes. The roadmap is a result of the Interconnection Innovation e-Xchange (i2X) program launched by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in June 2022 to convene stakeholders and address interconnection challenges. The roadmap is organized into four primary goal areas, each important to the overall i2X mission to enable a simpler, faster, and fairer interconnection of clean energy resources while enhancing the reliability, resiliency, and security of our electric grid. The first goal aims to improve interconnection data transparency, to aid interconnection customers’ ability to screen and site potential projects, better enable third-party modeling, facilitate more process automation, enhance competition while ensuring equitable outcomes, and enable benchmarking, tracking, and auditing of interconnection processes and reforms. The second goal covers solutions to improve queue management practices, affected system studies, fair processes, and workforce development. The third goal incorporates solutions that aim to improve cost allocation, reduce costs to electricity consumers, enhance the coordination between transmission planning and the interconnection process, and optimize the rightsizing of transmission investment through improvements in interconnection studies. The fourth and final goal aims to reduce the performance issues not identified during interconnection studies by updating technical requirements within interconnection studies, models, and tools while also improving industry interconnection standards.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Proof Hosting Capacity with Surrogate Affine Policy

Physical constraints must be enforced when dis-tributed energy resources, such as PV, are integrated into distribution network. Hosting capacity (HC) is thus introduced to define the maximum renewable that distribution system can accommodate. When the grid is further pushed towards low-carbon, many research efforts are devoted to increasing HC. Security and cost-efficiency become even more important in determining HC. This work proposes an uncertainty-proof HC with surrogate affine policy. Flexible resources are leveraged to increase HC. We propose a novel hybrid two-stage AC model with variable uncertainty set. An iterative algorithm is designed to solve the problem. The proposed model and solution approach are validated in modified 141-node feeders, and HC performance is also analyzed.

hosting capacity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Igor

SAND2023-05551O Igor, an open-source software, manages large clusters of users in a high-performance computing community. The systems allows users to choose an operating system and reserve and request hosts. The administrative side sets up and executes requests from users while simultaneously giving them tools to manage and enforce reservation policies and user access to the hosts. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Bagwell, Allen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap on Data and Analysis for Distribution System Planning: Information That Utilities Can Provide Regulators, State Energy Offices and Other Stakeholders

Electric utilities conduct planning annually to ensure their distribution system meets technical standards, policies, and regulations; addresses forecasted grid conditions; satisfies customer needs; and advances utility priorities. The plan identifies grid deficiencies, analyzes potential solutions, and prioritizes capital investments and other expenditures. About 20 U.S. states and jurisdictions require regulated utilities to file some type of distribution system plan with the public utility commission for review. Requirements for sharing distribution system data and analyses vary widely, from few specific requirements to a detailed list of information that must be provided. While utilities conduct extensive analysis to develop distribution system plans, in most jurisdictions regulators and stakeholders do not know what data are available and how the utility uses the data in planning and investing. This report aims to bridge the gap by increasing understanding of the types of data and analyses utilities employ to develop distribution system plans and how the information affects their decision-making. The report describes information that states and stakeholders can ask for related to 11 data categories: -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) -Scenario analysis -Worst-performing circuits -Asset management strategy -Hosting capacity analysis -Value of DERs -Grid needs assessment -Cost-effectiveness framework for investments -Distribution system investment strategy and implementation -Geotargeted programs -Non-wires alternatives procurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Federal Policy Considerations for the Management of Retired Large-Format Batteries

The global demand for large-format batteries used in electric vehicles (EV) and battery energy storage is expected to continue as governments call for zero emission policies. Total installed large-scale stationary battery energy storage is expected to increase almost 20-fold in the coming years - from 17 GW installed globally in 2020 to 358 GW projected in 2030. Similarly, light duty EVs sales globally are expected to increase more than 8-fold from 2020 to 2030 - from 3 million units to 25 million units. The expected demand for large-format batteries brings supply chain concerns, and economic opportunities. Domestic reuse and recycling is one potential circular economy solution for large-format batteries. This presentation discusses current U.S. law and regulatory landscape for the reuse and recycling of large-format batteries, and how certain policy frameworks impact reuse and end-of-life management decisions for large-format battery materials.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2025

NREL is Delivering Integrated Solutions for an Affordable and Secure Energy Future

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the U.S. Department of Energy's primary national laboratory for energy systems research and development. As the energy systems laboratory, NREL's unique strength lies in developing and integrating a broad array of energy technologies into robust, resilient systems - bridging foundational research with practical applications to lower energy costs, drive economic growth, bolster national security, and deliver abundant and reliable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microsecond-latency feedback at a particle accelerator by online reinforcement learning on hardware

The commissioning and operation of future large-scale scientific experiments will challenge current tuning and control methods. Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are a promising solution due to their ability to dynamically adapt to changing environments and consider delayed consequences. In many real-world applications, RL policies must produce actions in real time, often within microseconds to milliseconds, imposing significant constraints on system latency and computational overhead that conventional machine learning libraries are not designed to handle. To control phenomena in real time at these timescales, RL needs to be deployed on-the-edge, namely on dedicated hardware located near the system it controls, without relying on a host CPU or cloud-based inference. In this work we present the design and deployment of an experience accumulator system in a particle accelerator. In this system, deep-RL algorithms run using hardware acceleration and act within a few microseconds, enabling the use of RL for control of phenomena like beam instabilities. The training uses the collected data offline to reduce the number of operations carried out on the acceleration hardware. The proposed architecture was tested in real experimental conditions at the Karlsruhe research accelerator, a synchrotron light source, where the system was used to control artificially induced horizontal betatron oscillations in real-time, with a control loop period of just 2.7 μs. The results showed a performance comparable to the commercial feedback system available at the accelerator, demonstrating the viability and potential of this approach. Due to the self-learning and reconfiguration capability of this implementation, a seamless application to other control problems is possible. Applications range from particle accelerators to large-scale research and industrial facilities.

FPGA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transforming Public Housing with Deep Energy Retrofits

Open Market ESCO’s (OME) Transforming Public Housing through Deep Energy Retrofits project demonstrated new design and financing solutions for implementing deep energy retrofits (DERs) in occupied low-income multifamily housing. The Project performed an integrated project delivery process, including designing low-carbon retrofit solution packages, construction pricing, and financing. The Project developed a constructible and financeable DER scope for a 102-unit extremely low-income multifamily property in Boston. This Project demonstrated a replicable approach for streamlining and implementing DER projects in occupied housing, including real solutions for overcoming design complexities and cost barriers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient proactive vehicle relocation for on-demand mobility service with recurrent neural networks

One major challenge for on-demand mobility service (OMS) providers is to seamlessly match empty vehicles with trip requests so that the total vacant mileage is minimized. In this work, we develop an innovative data-driven approach for devising efficient vehicle relocation policy for OMS that (1) proactively relocates vehicles before the demand is observed and (2) reduces the inequality among drivers' income so that the proactive relocation policy is fair and is likely to be followed by drivers. Our approach represents the fusion of optimization and machine learning methods, which comprises three steps: First, we formulate the optimal proactive relocation as an optimal/stable matching problems and solve for global optimal solutions based on historical data. Second, the optimal solutions are then grouped and fed to train the deep learning models which consist of fully connected layers and long short-term memory networks. Low rank approximation is introduced to reduce the model complexity and improve the training performances. Finally, we use the trained model to predict the relocation policy which can be implemented in real time. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the performances of the proposed method using New York City taxi data. Here, the results suggest that our method will reduce empty mileage per trip by 54-70% under optimal matching strategy, and a 25-32% reduction can also be achieved by following stable matching strategy. We also validate that the predicted relocation policies are robust in the presence of uncertain passenger demand level and passenger trip-requesting behavior.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Framework to select robust energy retrofit measures for residential communities

Residential building energy retrofits are essential for enhancing environmental sustainability and reducing energy costs. The selection of retrofit measures is influenced by factors such as building systems, occupant behavior, government policy, weather variability, and climate change, all of which can significantly impact energy performance. Compared to retrofitting individual homes, evaluating and selecting optimal retrofit solutions for an entire community is challenging due to diverse residential compositions and variability present. Therefore, engineering robustness is crucial for ensuring consistent energy performance and resilience across different conditions. In this context, robustness refers to the ability of a retrofit measure to maintain its functionality and remain an optimal choice despite external disturbances or changes in inputs and conditions. This study presents a framework for evaluating the robustness of multiple retrofit measures across various building systems, occupant behaviors, and environmental scenarios at the community level. The framework comprises five key steps: scenario model development, integration of the National Residential Efficiency Measures database, energy performance simulation, cost-benefit aggregation, and retrofit solution selection. Each step enhances the framework’s robustness by incorporating the diversity of building characteristics, occupant behaviors, environmental conditions, retrofit options, and evaluation criteria. The framework’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a case study in southern Michigan in the United States, which includes 63 one-story single-family houses, 121 two-story single-family houses, and 8 townhouses. The study identifies furnace retrofits as the most robust solution for the entire community, consistently achieving source energy reductions of 4.7 %–8.0 % and payback period of 10–20 years across various scenarios. These findings are consistent with previous research, indicating the framework’s potential for broader applications in optimizing community-scale residential energy retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Realizing High-Accuracy Low-Cost Measurement and Verification for Deep Cost Savings (BPA Cost Share CRADA)

Developed practitioner workflows that integrate advanced M&V tools with supplementary automated routines for non-routine adjustments and for quantification of savings uncertainty to indicate rigor. Demonstrated these workflows with Seattle City Light, in collaboration with their implementers and evaluators – determine labor and time/cost savings, and uncertainty of the results obtained. Engaged the Pacific Northwest regulatory community to determine acceptance criteria for the required accuracy and reporting of advanced whole-building M&V. Documented the findings to facilitate broad industry uptake of the solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗