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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Generalized Separation of an Object Jettisoned from the ISS

The International Space Station (ISS) Program faces unprecedented logistics challenges in both upmass and downmass. Some items employed on the ISS exterior present significant technical issues for a controlled de-orbit on either the shuttle or an expendable supply vehicle. Such manifest problems arise due to structural degradation, insufficient containment of hazardous pressures or contents, excessive size, or some combination of all of these factors. In addition, the mounting hardware and other flight service equipment to manifest the returned equipment must itself be launched, competing with other upmass. EVA techniques and equipment to successfully contain and secure such problematic equipment result in numerous significant risks to the spacewalking crews and cost and schedule risks to the program. The ISS Program office has therefore developed a policy that advises the jettison of the most problematic objects. Such jettisoned items join a small family of nearly co-planar orbital debris objects that threaten the ISS on several timescales, besides threatening all satellites with perigee below the ISS orbit and the general human population on Earth. This analysis addresses the governing physics and the ensuing risks when an object is jettisoned. It is shown that there are four time domains which must be considered, each with its own inherent problems, and that a ballistic solution is usually possible that satsfies all constraints in all domains.

Bacon, Jack↗
NASA NTRS1993

Monitoring issues from a modeling perspective

Recognition that earth's climate and biogeophysical conditions are likely changing due to human activities has led to a heightened awareness of the need for improved long-term global monitoring. The present long-term measurement efforts tend to be spotty in space, inadequately calibrated in time, and internally inconsistent with respect to other instruments and measured quantities. In some cases, such as most of the biosphere, most chemicals, and much of the ocean, even a minimal monitoring program is not available. Recently, it has become painfully evident that emerging global change issues demand information and insights that the present global monitoring system simply cannot supply. This is because a monitoring system must provide much more than a statement of change at a given level of statistical confidence. It must describe changes in diverse parts of the entire earth system on regional to global scales. It must be able to provide enough input to allow an integrated physical characterization of the changes that have occurred. Finally, it must allow a separation of the observed changes into their natural and anthropogenic parts. The enormous policy significance of global change virtually guarantees an unprecedented level of scrutiny of the changes in the earth system and why they are happening. These pressures create a number of emerging challenges and opportunities. For example, they will require a growing partnership between the observational programs and the theory/modeling community. Without this partnership, the scientific community will likely fall short in the monitoring effort. The monitoring challenge before us is not to solve the problem now, but rather to set appropriate actions in motion so as to create the required framework for solution. Each individual piece needs to establish its role in the large problem and how the required interactions are to take place. Below, we emphasize some of the needs and opportunities that could and should be addressed through participation by the theoreticians and modelers in the global change monitoring effort.

Mahlman, Jerry D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Software Engineering Benchmarking Study

To identify best practices for the improvement of software engineering on projects, NASA's Offices of Chief Engineer (OCE) and Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) formed a team led by Heather Rarick and Sally Godfrey to conduct this benchmarking study. The primary goals of the study are to identify best practices that: Improve the management and technical development of software intensive systems; Have a track record of successful deployment by aerospace industries, universities [including research and development (R&D) laboratories], and defense services, as well as NASA's own component Centers; and Identify candidate solutions for NASA's software issues. Beginning in the late fall of 2010, focus topics were chosen and interview questions were developed, based on the NASA top software challenges. Between February 2011 and November 2011, the Benchmark Team interviewed a total of 18 organizations, consisting of five NASA Centers, five industry organizations, four defense services organizations, and four university or university R and D laboratory organizations. A software assurance representative also participated in each of the interviews to focus on assurance and software safety best practices. Interviewees provided a wealth of information on each topic area that included: software policy, software acquisition, software assurance, testing, training, maintaining rigor in small projects, metrics, and use of the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) framework, as well as a number of special topics that came up in the discussions. NASA's software engineering practices compared favorably with the external organizations in most benchmark areas, but in every topic, there were ways in which NASA could improve its practices. Compared to defense services organizations and some of the industry organizations, one of NASA's notable weaknesses involved communication with contractors regarding its policies and requirements for acquired software. One of NASA's strengths was its software assurance practices, which seemed to rate well in comparison to the other organizational groups and also seemed to include a larger scope of activities. An unexpected benefit of the software benchmarking study was the identification of many opportunities for collaboration in areas including metrics, training, sharing of CMMI experiences and resources such as instructors and CMMI Lead Appraisers, and even sharing of assets such as documented processes. A further unexpected benefit of the study was the feedback on NASA practices that was received from some of the organizations interviewed. From that feedback, other potential areas where NASA could improve were highlighted, such as accuracy of software cost estimation and budgetary practices. The detailed report contains discussion of the practices noted in each of the topic areas, as well as a summary of observations and recommendations from each of the topic areas. The resulting 24 recommendations from the topic areas were then consolidated to eliminate duplication and culled into a set of 14 suggested actionable recommendations. This final set of actionable recommendations, listed below, are items that can be implemented to improve NASA's software engineering practices and to help address many of the items that were listed in the NASA top software engineering issues. 1. Develop and implement standard contract language for software procurements. 2. Advance accurate and trusted software cost estimates for both procured and in-house software and improve the capture of actual cost data to facilitate further improvements. 3. Establish a consistent set of objectives and expectations, specifically types of metrics at the Agency level, so key trends and models can be identified and used to continuously improve software processes and each software development effort. 4. Maintain the CMMI Maturity Level requirement for critical NASA projects and use CMMI to measure organizations developing software for NASA. 5.onsolidate, collect and, if needed, develop common processes principles and other assets across the Agency in order to provide more consistency in software development and acquisition practices and to reduce the overall cost of maintaining or increasing current NASA CMMI maturity levels. 6. Provide additional support for small projects that includes: (a) guidance for appropriate tailoring of requirements for small projects, (b) availability of suitable tools, including support tool set-up and training, and (c) training for small project personnel, assurance personnel and technical authorities on the acceptable options for tailoring requirements and performing assurance on small projects. 7. Develop software training classes for the more experienced software engineers using on-line training, videos, or small separate modules of training that can be accommodated as needed throughout a project. 8. Create guidelines to structure non-classroom training opportunities such as mentoring, peer reviews, lessons learned sessions, and on-the-job training. 9. Develop a set of predictive software defect data and a process for assessing software testing metric data against it. 10. Assess Agency-wide licenses for commonly used software tools. 11. Fill the knowledge gap in common software engineering practices for new hires and co-ops.12. Work through the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) program with universities in strengthening education in the use of common software engineering practices and standards. 13. Follow up this benchmark study with a deeper look into what both internal and external organizations perceive as the scope of software assurance, the value they expect to obtain from it, and the shortcomings they experience in the current practice. 14. Continue interactions with external software engineering environment through collaborations, knowledge sharing, and benchmarking.

Rarick, Heather L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Autonomous Assessment and Predictive Capabilities for Low-Altitude Urban Flight Operations

The integration of unmanned aerial vehicles in the national airspace will introduce new vehicle types, technologies, and operational paradigms for which safety must be maintained and hazards mitigated. One approach is to attempt to design for possible hazards and unsafe incidents that can occur at different phases of flight (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight) and during ground operations. Another is to mitigate safety incidents by implementing changes to policies, procedures, regulations, and design to cover personnel, equipment, and aircraft during operations. These and other techniques, not described herein, are typically conservative or adhoc in that they reduce the likelihood of risk after safety incidents have occurred. In this work, the goal is to develop a more predictive capability to monitor and mitigate risk and hazards to safety “in-time” enough for decisions to be made. In line with NASA’s Aeronautics Mission Directorate Strategic Thrust 5 [1] (In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance), the System-Wide Safety (SWS) project under which this work falls, is developing and demonstrating innovative and safety-oriented solutions that enable modernization and aviation transformation. To that effect, this work will detail data-driven efforts on the SWS project to develop a number of safety-critical services for in-time monitoring and mitigation of hazards to low-altitude flight operations. First, hazards to these operations are identified based on previous work by NASA [2,3] and others in the aerospace industry. These hazards include (i) unsafe proximity to other vehicles, property, and people on the ground, (ii) critical system failures such as communication signal/GPS loss, unexpected propulsion system degradation, engine/power failure, and (iii) operational/environmental issues such as severe weather and gusty winds. For these hazards, safety metrics, which can be quantified and assessed are defined, models to monitor and predict them are developed, and flight test data is generated to develop, validate, and test these models, considering the complex interplay of the different hazards that define them [4-6]. In addition, the uncertainty in the non-deterministic effects that cannot be modeled nor predicted and unknown unknowns that arise after design/testing and during operations must be handled in rigorous manner. As a result, for each of the developed safety metrics, their dependencies on one another are characterized and a framework for handling the uncertainties inherent in the modeling, algorithms, and measurements required for prediction is also developed [7]. To that effect, this presentation will describe the safety metrics and services already developed and underway under the System-Wide Safety project that utilize data-driven techniques for the identification of anomalies, precursors, and trends (APTs) to monitor and mitigate hazards to safety, in-time, for urban flight operations in low-altitude airspace.

Okolo, Wendy A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Radioisotope Power Systems Program: Status Update

Radioisotope power systems (RPS) have safely been in use in the United States for over 60 years. RPS-enabled NASA missions have utilized space nuclear power to explore planets, moons, and interstellar space. This exploration resulted in changes to our understanding of our Solar System and our place within it. In 2010, NASA HQ established a NASA program to invest in RPS technologies and systems that could enable future missions. The RPS Program ensures the availability of RPS for the exploration of the solar system in environments where conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible. The RPS Program, in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy continues to operate as an interagency partnership to provide robust power system solutions to spacecrafts that conduct missions for exploration and science that otherwise would not be feasible. This paper provides a synopsis of current activities after well over a decade of formal interagency partnering.

Radioisotope↗
NASA NTRS2003

Optimal Limited Contingency Planning

For a given problem, the optimal Markov policy over a finite horizon is a conditional plan containing a potentially large number of branches. However, there are applications where it is desirable to strictly limit the number of decision points and branches in a plan. This raises the question of how one goes about finding optimal plans containing only a limited number of branches. In this paper, we present an any-time algorithm for optimal k-contingency planning. It is the first optimal algorithm for limited contingency planning that is not an explicit enumeration of possible contingent plans. By modelling the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process, it implements the Bellman optimality principle and prunes the solution space. We present experimental results of applying this algorithm to some simple test cases.

Meuleau, Nicolas↗
NASA NTRS2008

Designing the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Upper Stage Element and Integrating the Stack at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center

Fielding an integrated launch vehicle system entails many challenges, not the least of which is the fact that it has been over 30 years since the United States has developed a human-rated vehicle - the venerable Space Shuttle. Over time, whole generations of rocket scientists have passed through the aerospace community without the opportunity to perform such exacting, demanding, and rewarding work. However, with almost 50 years of experience leading the design, development, and end-to-end systems engineering and integration of complex launch vehicles, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center offers the in-house talent - both junior- and senior-level personnel - to shape a new national asset to meet the requirements for safe, reliable, and affordable space exploration solutions.' These personnel are housed primarily in Marshall's Engineering Directorate and are matrixed into the programs and projects that reside at the rocket center. Fortunately, many Apollo era and Shuttle engineers, as well as those who gained valuable hands-on experience in the 1990s by conducting technology demonstrator projects such as the Delta-Clipper Experimental Advanced, X-33, X-34, and X-37, as well as the short-lived Orbital Space Plane, work closely with industry partners to advance the nation's strategic capability for human access to space. Currently, only three spacefaring nations have this distinction, including the United States, Russia, and, more recently, China. The U.S. National Space Policy of2006 directs that NASA provide the means to travel to space, and the NASA Appropriations Act of2005 provided the initial funding to begin in earnest to replace the Shuttle after the International Space Station construction is complete in 20 IO? These and other strategic goals and objectives are documented in NASA's 2006 Strategic Plan.3 In 2005, a team of NASA aerospace experts conducted the Exploration Systems Architecture Study, which recommended a two-vehicle approach to America's next space transportation system for missions to the International Space Station in the next decade and to explore the Moon and establish an outpost around the 2020 timeframe.4 Based on this extensive study, NASA selected the Ares I crew launch vehicle configuration and the heavy-lift Ares V cargo launch vehicle (fig 1). This paper will give an overview of NASA's approach to integrating the Ares I vehicle stack using capabilities and assets that are resident in Marshall's Engineering Directorate, working in partnership with other NASA Centers and the U.S. aerospace industry. It also will provide top-level details on the progress of the in-house design of the Ares I vehicle's upper stage element.

Lyles, Garry↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services – A White Paper

History has shown that our personal life is highly dependent on the technology that people have developed. A strategic scan of the aerospace environment at the beginning of the 21st century strongly suggests that the world might be approaching a new age of airpower—the era of electrified/hybrid aircraft propulsion. Undeniably, starting from the Montgolfier Brothers balloon flight in 1783, to the Wright Brothers piston engine flight in 1903, and the jet engine of the 1960s, or the space age of today, one can say that leaps in propulsion technology have marked the different ages of human flight. The technological advancements, brought at the beginning of 21st century by the revolution in data exchange, computational power, sensors, wireless communication, internet, and autonomy, contributed to the vision of this new age of propulsion we are approaching. Historically, conventional vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft have been equipped with propulsion units relying on complex internal combustion machines (turbines, piston engines, for example), and complex mechanical arrangements (gearboxes, shafts, variable pitch propeller). By contrast, electric VTOL aircraft (eVTOL)1 rely on simpler propulsion units (electric motors and in some cases fixed-pitch propellers). This promotes redundancy and improves tolerance to failures, in turn improving safety. The use of simpler electric propulsion units should also allow significant acquisition and operating cost reductions. Whether full-electric (relying solely on batteries) or hybrid-electric (relying on a combination of batteries, fuel-powered engines, and generators.), eVTOLs are also expected to generate less noise and air pollution than conventional aircraft with similar payloads. According to the 2019 Annual Review of IATA (International Air Transport Association) [ref.1], due to an expected increase in air transport traffic by 5% every year and a doubling of air transport passenger numbers to 8.2 billion by 2037 significant challenges are posed to the aviation industry. Furthermore, this report does not factor in the expected demand for short-range (intra-city) air transportation, which is in development and yet to be operational. The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner and an endeavor to develop more environmentally-friendly aircraft. eVTOL aircraft, either piloted or autonomous, is gathering considerable interest worldwide. Modern and novel full-electric or hybrid-electric eVTOL configurations enable a new paradigm shift in air transportation as the aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. While electric power has been used for decades, recent developments in mobile electric/hybrid propulsion coupled with advanced materials and autonomous systems may create the possibility to transition into the next age of air mobility propelled by electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft technology. Although eVTOL aircraft might seem like an incremental improvement or even a counterintuitive regression with regard to past VTOL development, it has in fact the potential to transform air mobility across a wide range of government applications. Previous transformations in aviation generated dramatic leaps in performance, but the cost was commensurate with performance, limiting quantity produced. This next age appears to take a different approach. Performance may not increase, but at this moment technology is poised for future urban mobility that will spawn commercial passenger drone services, that is, autonomous (pilotless) air taxis and thereby add a new dimension to the urban transportation mix of the future [ref. 2]. Advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology, and 5G communication networks will enable this fast new-growing market to become a reality. It is now time to envision the introduction of electric/hybrid eVTOL aircraft for Public Services2. We believe that in the next decades eVTOL aircraft will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement. This is due to several major factors. • First, with the increasing popularity of small, unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or drones, many companies today are focusing on the development of passenger UAVs designed to accommodate up to five passengers or equivalent cargo payload. Many such configurations are electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capabilities. Several of these projects have started a flight test program and many more are expected to be in the experimental and development phase in 2020. Such revolutionary vehicles could be in commercial operations by 2030. These eVTOL systems could be ready for selected Public Services missions even sooner. • Second, although these advanced eVTOL vehicles under development still need access to fuel (hybrid) and/or electric charging capability, they can take off and land from almost anywhere. Therefore, such vehicles, both manned and unmanned can be successfully integrated for the critical missions of the Public Services with extra deployment flexibilities. • Third, advancement in electric propulsion systems in the automotive industry together with NASA’s leading efforts in electrification of aircraft propulsion systems, FAA’s ongoing active eVTOL certification programs, and EASA’s proposed framework for the certification of electric/hybrid small category VTOL aircraft in Europe [ref. 3] will help accelerate industry electric propulsion system development and integration. • Finally, eVTOL vehicles could be deployed for Public Services sooner than air taxi or other commercial applications, since Public Services missions may be more easily approved based on specific mission criteria, localized airworthiness authority for public-use aircraft3, and are normally operating under centralized airspace management and control by the theater command. Moreover, public perception and acceptance are generally less of a concern when operations save lives and benefit the wider community. The prioritized introduction of eVTOL aircraft in Public Services is ambitious, but we believe it is achievable in the coming decades if fundamental enablers (people and technologies) are engaged in defining the objectives and needs of these missions. The revolution that is currently taking place in eVTOL aircraft represents an unprecedented opportunity to develop a safer, more affordable, more available and more environmentally friendly future of vertical flight. To ensure that these novel aircraft meet the future expectations of Public Services, it is essential to take a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach to their development, across engineering disciplines, policy-making, program management, business case development, manufacturing, and flight demonstrations. It should be noted that the term eVTOL (in the near term) used throughout this publication implies aircraft capable of transporting up to 5 persons which may or may not include a pilot if operated fully autonomously, assuming an average of 200 pounds (91 kg) per person or equivalent payload and a range up to 60 miles plus a suitable reserve. Hybrid or hydrogen powered eVTOLs would have greater range. For example, a “3-seat” eVTOL aircraft may only be able to carry two fully equipped firemen, and payload capacity is more relevant when used for the supply mission. Moreover, this paper concentrates on the “last-mile” solutions with a deployment time of no more than 6 hours. Although not specifically discussed in this document, it is understood that the future of Transformative Vertical Flight in general and Public Services, in particular, will also involve smaller UAVs that will undoubtedly play a crucial role in future aerial operations. For example, smaller unmanned aircraft may be used to dispatch medical supplies, portable filtration systems or perform the Search task of future Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. Close collaboration between the aircraft industry, the Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA), e.g., Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) certifiers, will help identify Public Services requirements, define expectations and limit development cost and timescales. Take the US Air Force Agility Prime as an example, the majority of the eVTOL application opportunities and mission elements identified are in line with the NASA TVF WG-4 objectives and use cases. Together, it forms a strong partnership to accelerate the development, certification, and practical deployment for public service missions. The US Air Force Agility Prime has been a collaboration partner on this white paper, and provided valuable input and recommendations. Most of the eVTOL public service mission elements discussed in this paper and additional use cases envisioned by the NASA TVF WG-4 team are shared by the Agility Prime program. The focus and efforts of the Agility Prime in product and system development, industry and government partnership, accelerated certifications as well as early test and deployment are totally in sync with the path forward recommended by this white paper. This kind of collaboration and partnership will help enable the practical use of the eVTOL for public service missions, benefit the eVTOL public acceptance, and accelerate the eVTOL industry revolution.

Johnny T. Doo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Data-Driven Approach to Recognizing and Understanding Human Contributions to Aviation Safety

Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence, and are influenced by, how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. In the commercial aviation domain, large volumes of data are collected and analyzed on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on safety-producing behaviors, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of non-representative safety data. Analysis of aviation accident data suggests that human error is implicated in up to 80% of accidents, which has been used to justify future visions for aviation in which the roles of human operators are greatly diminished or eliminated in the interest of creating a safer aviation system. However, failure to fully consider the human contributions to aviation safety represents a significant and largely unrecognized risk when making policy decisions about safety management and system design. Opportunities exist to leverage the vast amount of data that have already been collected, or could be easily obtained, to increase our understanding of human contributions to safety in commercial aviation. This presentation will focus on those opportunities as well as the challenges associated with collecting and analyzing data on operators’ safety-producing behaviors.

Safety↗
NASA NTRS2023

Perspectives on User Engagement of Satellite Earth Observation for Water Quality Management

The management and governance of our surface waters is core to life and prosperity on our planet. However, monitoring data are not available to many potential users and the disparate nature of water bodies makes consistent monitoring across so many systems difficult. While satellite Earth observation (EO) offers solutions, there are numerous challenges that limit the use of satellite EO for water monitoring. To understand the perceptions of using satellite EO for water quality monitoring, a survey was conducted within academia and the water quality management sector. Study objectives were to assess community understanding of satellite EO water quality data, identify barriers in the adoption of satellite EO data, and analyse trust in satellite EO data. Most (40 %) participants were beginners with little understanding of satellite EO. Participants indicated problems with satellite EO data accessibility (31 %) and interpretability (26 %). Results showed a high level of trust with satellite EO data and higher trust with in-situ EO data. This study highlighted the gap between water science, applied social science, and policy. A transdisciplinary approach to managing water resources is needed to bridge water disciplines and take a key role in areas such as social issues, knowledge brokering, and translation.

water quality↗
NASA NTRS2004

Time-Extended Policies in Mult-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning methods perform well in many domains where a single agent needs to take a sequence of actions to perform a task. These methods use sequences of single-time-step rewards to create a policy that tries to maximize a time-extended utility, which is a (possibly discounted) sum of these rewards. In this paper we build on our previous work showing how these methods can be extended to a multi-agent environment where each agent creates its own policy that works towards maximizing a time-extended global utility over all agents actions. We show improved methods for creating time-extended utilities for the agents that are both "aligned" with the global utility and "learnable." We then show how to crate single-time-step rewards while avoiding the pi fall of having rewards aligned with the global reward leading to utilities not aligned with the global utility. Finally, we apply these reward functions to the multi-agent Gridworld problem. We explicitly quantify a utility's learnability and alignment, and show that reinforcement learning agents using the prescribed reward functions successfully tradeoff learnability and alignment. As a result they outperform both global (e.g., team games ) and local (e.g., "perfectly learnable" ) reinforcement learning solutions by as much as an order of magnitude.

Tumer, Kagan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Managing Small Spacecraft Projects: Less is Not Easier

Managing small, low cost missions (class C or D) is not necessarily easier than managing a full flagship mission. Yet, small missions are typically considered easier to manage and used as a training ground for developing the next generation of project managers. While limited resources can be a problem for small missions, in reality most of the issues inherent in managing small projects are not the direct result of limited resources. Instead, problems encountered by managers of small spacecraft missions often derive from 1) the perception that managing small projects is easier if something is easier it needs less rigor and formality in execution, 2) the perception that limited resources necessitate or validate omitting standard management practices, 3) less stringent or unclear guidelines or policies for small projects, and 4) stakeholder expectations that are not consistent with the size and nature of the project. For example, the size of a project is sometimes used to justify not building a full, detailed integrated master schedule. However, while a small schedule slip may not be a problem for a large mission, it can indicate a serious problem for a small mission with a short development phase, highlighting the importance of the schedule for early identification of potential issues. Likewise, stakeholders may accept a higher risk posture early in the definition of a low-cost mission, but as launch approaches this acceptance may change. This presentation discusses these common misconceptions about managing small, low cost missions, the problems that can result, and possible solutions.

Barley, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2020

Indicators and Monitoring Systems for Urban Climate Resiliency

Cities in the USA and around the world have begun to take an active role in responding to climate change. A central requirement for effective urban climate strategies is the capacity to understand and measure how the climate is changing, the physical, environmental, and social impacts of the changes, and whether adaptation and resiliency policies and programs put in place in response are working. The objective of this paper is to review and assess how urban climate change and resiliency efforts can be measured and to define what might serve as meaningful indicator and monitoring protocols. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) is used as a case study along with a reviews of the emerging literature of urban climate change indicators to analyze the requirements and processes needed for a successful urban climate resiliency indicator and monitoring (I and M) system. In the paper, the basic requirements of a proposed Urban Climate Resilience Indicators and Monitoring System are presented. A specific illustration of an I and M system for tracking the urban heat island highlights challenges as well as potential solutions embedded within such systems. Discussions how these protocols can be translated to other locales and settings, as well as the relationship to the US National Climate Assessment indicator process, are presented.

New York City Panel on Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: Affordability for Sustainability

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is charged with delivering a new capability for human exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. But the SLS value is clear and codified in United States (U.S.) budget law. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability and will provide an overview of initiatives designed to fit within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat, yet evolve the 70-tonne (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through the competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface some 40 years ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on platforms such as the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. In parallel with SLS concept studies, NASA is now refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. space policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap, which reflects the mutual goals of a dozen member nations. This mission planning will converge with a flexible heavy-lift rocket that can carry international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids and Mars. In addition, the SLS capability will accommodate very large science instruments and other payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to configure the rocket for the mission. The SLS affordability plan includes streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture where the question Why? is often asked and the answer "Because we've always done it that way" is rarely heard. The SLS Program will deliver affordable space transportation solutions for the Orion Multi-Purpose Cargo Vehicle s first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021. As this briefing will show, the SLS will offer a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations.

May, Todd A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Establishment of a Spaceport Network Architecture

Since the beginning of the space age, the main actors in space exploration have been governmental agencies, enabling a privileged access to space, but with very restricted and rare missions. The last decade has seen the rise of space tourism, and the founding of ambitious private space mining companies, showing the beginnings of a new exploration era, that is based on a more generalized and regular access to space and which is not limited to the Earth's vicinity. However, the cost of launching sufficient mass into orbit to sustain these inspiring challenges is prohibitive, and the necessary infrastructures to support these missions is still lacking. To provide easy and affordable access into orbital and deep space destinations, there is the need to create a network of spaceports via specific waypoint locations coupled with the use of natural resources, or In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), to provide a more economical solution. As part of the International Space University Space Studies Program 2012, the international and intercultural team of Operations and Service Infrastructure for Space (OASIS) proposes an interdisciplinary answer to the problem of economical space access and transportation. This paper presents a summary of a detailed report [1] of the different phases of a project for developing a network of spaceports throughout the Solar System in a timeframe of 50 years. The requirements, functions, critical technologies and mission architecture of this network of spaceports are outlined in a roadmap of the important steps and phases. The economic and financial aspects are emphasized in order to allow a sustainable development of the network in a public-private partnership via the formation of an International Spaceport Authority (ISPA). The approach includes engineering, scientific, financial, legal, policy, and societal aspects. Team OASIS intends to provide guidelines to make the development of space transportation via a spaceports logistics network feasible, and believes that this pioneering effort will revolutionize space exploration, science and commerce, ultimately contributing to permanently expand humanity into space.

Larson, Wiley J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Efficient Credit Assignment through Evaluation Function Decomposition

Evolutionary methods are powerful tools in discovering solutions for difficult continuous tasks. When such a solution is encoded over multiple genes, a genetic algorithm faces the difficult credit assignment problem of evaluating how a single gene in a chromosome contributes to the full solution. Typically a single evaluation function is used for the entire chromosome, implicitly giving each gene in the chromosome the same evaluation. This method is inefficient because a gene will get credit for the contribution of all the other genes as well. Accurately measuring the fitness of individual genes in such a large search space requires many trials. This paper instead proposes turning this single complex search problem into a multi-agent search problem, where each agent has the simpler task of discovering a suitable gene. Gene-specific evaluation functions can then be created that have better theoretical properties than a single evaluation function over all genes. This method is tested in the difficult double-pole balancing problem, showing that agents using gene-specific evaluation functions can create a successful control policy in 20 percent fewer trials than the best existing genetic algorithms. The method is extended to more distributed problems, achieving 95 percent performance gains over tradition methods in the multi-rover domain.

Agogino, Adrian↗