Results for “planning under uncertainty” — Page 7

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biosentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biosentinel: The First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission- Mission Summary and Lessons Learned

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRS1994

Galileo mission planning for Low Gain Antenna based operations

The Galileo mission operations concept is undergoing substantial redesign, necessitated by the deployment failure of the High Gain Antenna, while the spacecraft is on its way to Jupiter. The new design applies state-of-the-art technology and processes to increase the telemetry rate available through the Low Gain Antenna and to increase the information density of the telemetry. This paper describes the mission planning process being developed as part of this redesign. Principal topics include a brief description of the new mission concept and anticipated science return (these have been covered more extensively in earlier papers), identification of key drivers on the mission planning process, a description of the process and its implementation schedule, a discussion of the application of automated mission planning tool to the process, and a status report on mission planning work to date. Galileo enhancements include extensive reprogramming of on-board computers and substantial hard ware and software upgrades for the Deep Space Network (DSN). The principal mode of operation will be onboard recording of science data followed by extended playback periods. A variety of techniques will be used to compress and edit the data both before recording and during playback. A highly-compressed real-time science data stream will also be important. The telemetry rate will be increased using advanced coding techniques and advanced receivers. Galileo mission planning for orbital operations now involves partitioning of several scarce resources. Particularly difficult are division of the telemetry among the many users (eleven instruments, radio science, engineering monitoring, and navigation) and allocation of space on the tape recorder at each of the ten satellite encounters. The planning process is complicated by uncertainty in forecast performance of the DSN modifications and the non-deterministic nature of the new data compression schemes. Key mission planning steps include quantifying resource or capabilities to be allocated, prioritizing science observations and estimating resource needs for each, working inter-and intra-orbit trades of these resources among the Project elements, and planning real-time science activity. The first major mission planning activity, a high level, orbit-by-orbit allocation of resources among science objectives, has already been completed; and results are illustrated in the paper. To make efficient use of limited resources, Galileo mission planning will rely on automated mission planning tools capable of dealing with interactions among time-varying downlink capability, real-time science and engineering data transmission, and playback of recorded data. A new generic mission planning tool is being adapted for this purpose.

Gershman, R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander

When planning in unknown environments, a planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution. Productivity in the face of these challenges requires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of reacting to variation while still maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept. We propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback using three techniques: (1) flexible execution, (2) periodic replanning, and (3) online model parameter and utility updates. The efficacy of each of these techniques is examined through simulation of the Europa Lander concept, showing higher utility achievement compared to baseline approaches.

Chien, Steve A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Status of knowledge of the extraterrestrial solar 'constant' and spectral distribution

Current knowledge of the total solar flux (the solar constant) and its spectral distribution at the top of the earth's atmosphere is reviewed. The development of pyrheliometers and radiation scales is traced, noting that active cavity pyrheliometers have been developed to reduce measurement uncertainty to within 0.1/%. The weighted mean solar constant from ground-based, aircraft, balloon, spacecraft and sounding rocket observations has been calculated to be 1369 W/sq m. Future observations are planned in order to reduce uncertainty to the 0.1% level required for climatological studies. A comparison of the measurement and models of solar spectral irradiance obtained by Thekaekara (1969, 1974), Arvesen (1969) and Labs and Neckel (1968, 1975) shows that the spectrum of Labs and Neckel is most accurate in the 0.4 to 1.25 micron range, that of Arvesen is best in the 0.3 to 0.4 abd 1.25 to 2.5 micron ranges and the model of Labs and Neckel is best at wavelengths greater than 2.5 microns.

Willson, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Optimization Methods for Controlling and Sizing Grid-connected Energy Storage: A Review

Purpose of Review Energy storage is capable of providing a variety of services and solving a multitude of issues in today's rapidly evolving electric power grid. This paper reviews recent research on modeling and optimization methods for optimally controlling and sizing grid-connected battery energy storage systems (BESSs). Open issues and promising research directions are discussed. Recent Findings Recent studies on BESS dispatch, evaluation, and sizing focus on advanced modeling and optimization methods to maximize stacked value streams from multiple services. BESS models have been improved to better represent operational characteristics or capture degradation effects. Different solution methods and optimization techniques have been proposed to improve the benefits and cost-effectiveness of BESSs, using deterministic approaches prevalently but with impressive progress in capturing and addressing uncertainties. Summary Recent progress in BESS scheduling and sizing better supports planning and operational decision-making in different use cases, which is highly important to advance the deployment of BESSs. Additional research is required to properly model the trade-off between short-term benefits and service life with multiple degradation effects explicitly considered in the decision-making process. Advanced methods are to be developed for effectively determining optimal BESS sizes that maximize overall benefits within a varying lifetime considering diversified system, conditions as well as uncertainties at planning and operational stages.

Wu, Di↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1997

Replanning Using Hierarchical Task Network and Operator-Based Planning

In order to scale-up to real-world problems, planning systems must be able to replan in order to deal with changes in problem context. In this paper we describe hierarchical task network and operatorbased re-planning techniques which allow adaptation of a previous plan to account for problems associated with executing plans in real-world domains with uncertainty, concurrency, changing objectives.

HTN/operator-based planning↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Scheduling Under Uncertainty

Often, autonomous agents that operate in real-world environments must be able to schedule and execute actions to accomplish mission goals while being robust to uncertainty and disturbances that arise during operations. This tutorial will focus on classes of models and algorithms that have been used to enable effective, robust strategies for dynamically dispatching plans in real time. The tutorial will begin with a survey of past and current research in modeling uncertainty in planning and scheduling, as well as research in different classes of approaches to dynamic scheduling. We then focus on a general class of approaches based on executing temporal plans using graphical models of events and their temporal ordering. These approaches allow for ensuring temporal flexibility in scheduling, as well as for developing strategies for executing partially controllable plans.

Morris, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2015

Impact of AMS-02 Measurements on Reducing GCR Model Uncertainties

For vehicle design, shield optimization, mission planning, and astronaut risk assessment, the exposure from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) poses a significant and complex problem both in low Earth orbit and in deep space. To address this problem, various computational tools have been developed to quantify the exposure and risk in a wide range of scenarios. Generally, the tool used to describe the ambient GCR environment provides the input into subsequent computational tools and is therefore a critical component of end-to-end procedures. Over the past few years, several researchers have independently and very carefully compared some of the widely used GCR models to more rigorously characterize model differences and quantify uncertainties. All of the GCR models studied rely heavily on calibrating to available near-Earth measurements of GCR particle energy spectra, typically over restricted energy regions and short time periods. In this work, we first review recent sensitivity studies quantifying the ions and energies in the ambient GCR environment of greatest importance to exposure quantities behind shielding. Currently available measurements used to calibrate and validate GCR models are also summarized within this context. It is shown that the AMS-II measurements will fill a critically important gap in the measurement database. The emergence of AMS-II measurements also provides a unique opportunity to validate existing models against measurements that were not used to calibrate free parameters in the empirical descriptions. Discussion is given regarding rigorous approaches to implement the independent validation efforts, followed by recalibration of empirical parameters.

Slaba, T. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scalable Transmission Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Three-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges for power grids due to its variable and uncertain power output. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to transmission planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this paper we present an approach for transmission planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using three-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute transmission expansion decisions on a modified RTS-GMLC test system. We augment the grid with large amounts of wind generation and consider many operational scenarios subject to wind uncertainty.

multi-stage stochastic optimization↗

NASA NTRS2014

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction↗