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At least 127 records · Page 7

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

Use of MODIS-Derived Fire Radiative Energy to Estimate Smoke Aerosol Emissions over Different Ecosystems

Biomass burning is the main source of smoke aerosols and certain trace gases in the atmosphere. However, estimates of the rates of biomass consumption and emission of aerosols and trace gases from fires have not attained adequate reliability thus far. Traditional methods for deriving emission rates employ the use of emission factors e(sub x), (in g of species x per kg of biomass burned), which are difficult to measure from satellites. In this era of environmental monitoring from space, fire characterization was not a major consideration in the design of the early satellite-borne remote sensing instruments, such as AVHRR. Therefore, although they are able to provide fire location information, they were not adequately sensitive to variations in fire strength or size, because their thermal bands used for fire detection saturated at the lower end of fire radiative temperature range. As such, hitherto, satellite-based emission estimates employ proxy techniques using satellite derived fire pixel counts (which do not express the fire strength or rate of biomass consumption) or burned areas (which can only be obtained after the fire is over). The MODIS sensor, recently launched into orbit aboard EOS Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites, have a much higher saturation level and can, not only detect the fire locations 4 times daily, but also measures the at-satellite fire radiative energy (which is a measure of the fire strength) based on its 4 micron channel temperature. Also, MODIS measures the optical thickness of smoke and other aerosols. Preliminary analysis shows appreciable correlation between the MODIS-derived rates of emission of fire radiative energy and smoke over different regions across the globe. These relationships hold great promise for deriving emission coefficients, which can be used for estimating smoke aerosol emissions from MODIS active fire products. This procedure has the potential to provide more accurate emission estimates in near real-time, providing opportunities for various disaster management applications such as alerts, evacuation and, smoke dispersion forecasting.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Simulating water dynamics related to pedogenesis across space and time: Implications for four-dimensional digital soil mapping

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on machine-learning and geostatistics to represent soil property observations across space. DSM techniques are powerful but often empirical, being limited to the quality and density of point samples. Water dynamics are closely related to soil variability, and the physics that govern water movement are well known. Hydrological properties can hence be simulated by physical models through space and time, unveiling key characteristics about soils. We propose the use of hydrologic models to map soils across the surface (2D), depth (1D), and time (1D)–which provides a 4D approach to digital soil mapping (4DSM). The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was applied to a watershed currently under pasture. Moisture sensors and wells were installed at different depths in the watershed on summit, sideslope and toeslope positions to validate the model. DHSVM simulations of soil moisture distribution and depth to saturation were performed during the hydrological year (October 2008-September 2009). Clusters of similar pixels based on soil moisture values were determined using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to align temporal data and K-means. Clustering was performed both seasonally and for the entire year. Temporal patterns simulated by DHSVM matched measurements given by moisture sensors and wells. Seasonal clusters differed from the annual cluster. Distinct clusters were observed for each season and with depth, showing that spatiotemporal soil variability is lost when statically assessing soils. Spatiotemporal clusters corroborated field observations of fragipan occurrence not explicitly spatially mapped by Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO). If a connection can be made between water and soils, static and dynamic soil variability can be predicted using physically based hydrologic models. Hydrologic models can benefit soil mapping by enabling reliable 4D simulation of water dynamics, which are fundamental to soil variability and soil classification and directly relate to biological, physical and chemical soil processes not captured by typical soil sampling protocols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Satellite-Derived and In-Situ Observations of Ice and Snow Surface Temperatures over Greenland

The most practical way to get a spatially broad and continuous measurements of the surface temperature in the data-sparse cryosphere is by satellite remote sensing. The uncertainties in satellite-derived LSTs must be understood to develop internally-consistent decade-scale land-surface temperature (LST) records needed for climate studies. In this work we assess satellite-derived "clear-sky" LST products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and LSTs derived from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) over snow and ice on Greenland. When possible, we compare satellite-derived LSTs with in-situ air-temperature observations from Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) automatic-weather stations (AWS). We find that MODIS, ASTER and ETM+ provide reliable and consistent LSTs under clear-sky conditions and relatively-flat terrain over snow and ice targets over a range of temperatures from -40 to 0 C. The satellite-derived LSTs agree within a relative RMS uncertainty of approx.0.5 C. The good agreement among the LSTs derived from the various satellite instruments is especially notable since different spectral channels and different retrieval algorithms are used to calculate LST from the raw satellite data. The AWS record in-situ data at a "point" while the satellite instruments record data over an area varying in size from: 57 X 57 m (ETM+), 90 X 90 m (ASTER), or to 1 X 1 km (MODIS). Surface topography and other factors contribute to variability of LST within a pixel, thus the AWS measurements may not be representative of the LST of the pixel. Without more information on the local spatial patterns of LST, the AWS LST cannot be considered valid ground truth for the satellite measurements, with RMS uncertainty approx.2 C. Despite the relatively large AWS-derived uncertainty, we find LST data are characterized by high accuracy but have uncertain absolute precision.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Performance characterization of 5×5×12 mm 3 virtual Frisch-grid TlBr detectors

Thallium bromide (TlBr) is a promising material for semiconductor gamma-ray detectors due to its high atomic number (Tl = 81, Br = 35), high density (7.56 g/cm 3 ), and relatively low melting point (460 °C). These properties give TlBr several competitive features, including high detection efficiency, good energy resolution, and lower fabrication costs, making it suitable for applications requiring compact, highly sensitive gamma-ray detection systems. Recent developments of TlBr detectors have progressed toward thicker crystals, up to 10–20 mm, configured as pixelated or virtual Frisch-grid (VFG) devices with volumes >1 cm 3 . Despite these advances, challenges remain in practical implementation, including material and fabrication issues that affect energy resolution, device stability, performance, and longevity. These challenges are similar to those faced by HgI 2 and lead-halide perovskite detectors. Here, this study presents results from characterizing over 100 position-sensitive 5×5×12 mm 3 virtual Frisch-grid detectors fabricated by Radiation Monitoring Devices Inc. For a prototype Radioisotope Identification Device (RIID). The work identified factors limiting the performance and longevity of TlBr detectors, including stochastic response variations that limit the energy resolution to 2–3 % (at 662 keV) for most devices, performance degradation associated with defect decoration, and contact delamination. Addressing these issues advances the use of TlBr and similar materials for reliable, high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Improved Rainfall Data in the Philippines through Concurrent Use of GPM IMERG and Ground-Based Measurements

The availability of accurate and reliable rainfall data that are applicable to various phenomenological, climatological, and modeling studies is important, especially in the Philippines, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to natural hazards and a changing climate. The presented strategy involved constructing a dataset consisting of synoptic data, automatic rain gauge (ARG) measurements, and satellite data that are co-registered, consistent, and formatted in the same manner. Although sparse in number, the synoptic stations provide the most accurate rainfall information and were used as the baseline for creating the dataset. The ARGs that are within a distance of 1 km to the synoptic stations were used to determine the correction factors needed to make the synoptic and ARG data consistent. Subsequently, the corrected ARGs were used to make the satellite IMERG data consistent with both ARG and synoptic data. In case of the latter, only IMERG pixels with at least 10 ARGs within the relatively large footprint of the satellite sensor were used in estimating the required correction parameters derived from a combination of a power transform and linear regression correction techniques. The final results show good agreement of synoptic and corrected ARG data with correlation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.97 for the 10 day and monthly data, respectively, and improvement in the linear regression slope from 0.67 to 0.90 for 10 day data, and 0.70 to 0.94 for monthly data. In addition, the corrected ARG data agree well with the corrected IMERG data, with correlation coefficients of 0.88 and 0.93 for the 10 day and monthly data, respectively, and an improvement in slope from 0.66 to 0.87 for 10 day data, and 0.74 to 0.99 for monthly data. The merit of using a combined dataset is illustrated through comparative analyses of the IMERG data and spatially interpolated synoptic and ARG data. The results show general agreements in spatial patterns of rainfall across the datasets, especially in areas where in situ measurements are recorded. The observed discrepancy when ground data is limited emphasizes the need for satellite IMERG data to obtain the true spatial patterns of rainfall distribution.

rainfall↗

Accurate electromagnetic modeling of terahertz detectors

Twin slot antennas coupled to superconducting devices have been developed over the years as single pixel detectors in the terahertz (THz) frequency range for space-based and astronomy applications. Used either for mixing or direct detection, they have been object of several investigations, and are currently being developed for several missions funded or co-funded by NASA. Although they have shown promising performance in terms of noise and sensitivity, so far they have usually also shown a considerable disagreement in terms of performance between calculations and measurements, especially when considering center frequency and bandwidth. In this paper we present a thorough and accurate electromagnetic model of complete detector and we compare the results of calculations with measurements. Starting from a model of the embedding circuit, the effect of all the other elements in the detector in the coupled power have been analyzed. An extensive variety of measured and calculated data, as presented in this paper, demonstrates the effectiveness and reliability of the electromagnetic model at frequencies between 600 GHz and 2.5THz.

Hot Electron Bolometer (HEB)↗

Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): SAR Water Body Classification for the Open Data Cube

The detection of inland water bodies from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data provides a great advantage over water detection with optical data, since SAR imaging is not impeded by cloud cover. Traditional methods of detecting water from SAR data involves using thresholding methods that can be labor intensive and imprecise. This paper describes Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): a method of water detection from SAR data which automates and simplifies the thresholding process using machine learning on training data created from Geoscience Australia’s WOFS algorithm. Of the machine learning models tested, the Linear Support Vector Machine was determined to be optimal, with the option of training using solely the VH polarization or a combination of the VH and VV polarizations. WASARD was able to identify water in the target area with a correlation of 97% with WOFS. Sentinel-1, Open Data Cube, Earth Observations, Machine Learning, Water Detection 1. INTRODUCTION Water classification is an important function of Earth imaging satellites, as accurate remote classification of land and water can assist in land use analysis, flood prediction, climate change research, as well as a variety of agricultural applications [2]. The ability to identify bodies of water remotely via satellite is immensely cheaper than contracting surveys of the areas in question, meaning that an application that can accurately use satellite data towards this function can make valuable information available to nations which would not be able to afford it otherwise. Highly reliable applications for the remote detection of water currently exist for use with optical satellite data such as that provided by LANDSAT. One such application, Geoscience Australia’s Water Observations from Space (WOFS) has already been ported for use with the Open Data Cube [6]. However, water detection using optical data from Landsat is constrained by its relatively long revisit cycle of 16 days [5], and water detection using any optical data is constrained in that it lacks the ability to make accurate classifications through cloud cover [2]. The alternative solution which solves these problems is water detection using SAR data, which images the Earth using cloud-penetrating microwaves. Because of its advantages over optical data, much research has been done into water detection using SAR data. Traditionally, this has been done using the thresholding method, which involves picking a polarization band and labeling all pixels for which this band’s value is below a certain threshold as containing water. The thresholding method works since water tends to return a much lower backscatter value to the satellite than land [1]. However, this method can be flawed since estimating the proper threshold is often imprecise, complicated, and labor intensive for the end user. Thresholding also tends to use data from only one SAR polarization, when a combination of polarizations can provide insight into whether water is present. [2] In order to alleviate these problems, this paper presents an application for the Open Data Cube to detect water from SAR data using support vector machine (SVM) classification. 2. PLATFORM WASARD is an application for the Open Data Cube, a mechanism which provides a simple yet efficient means of ingesting, storing, and retrieving remote sensing data. Data can be ingested and made analysis ready according to whatever specifications the researcher chooses, and easily resampled to artificially alter a scene’s resolution. Currently WASARD supports water detection on scenes from ESA’s Sentinel-1 and JAXA’s ALOS. When testing WASARD, Sentinel-1 was most commonly used due to its relatively high spatial resolution and its rapid 6 day revisit cycle [5]. With minor alterations to the application's code, however, it could support data from other satellites. 3. METHODOLOGY Using supervised classification, WASARD compares SAR data to a dataset pre-classified by WOFS in order to train an SVM classifier. This classifier is then used to detect water in other SAR scenes outside the training set. Accuracy was measured according to the following metrics:  Precision: a measure of what percentage of the points WASARD labels as water are truly water  Recall: a measure of what percentage of the total water cover WASARD was able to identify.  F1 Score: a harmonic average of the precision and recall scores Both precision and recall are calculated at the end of the training phase, when the trained classifier is compared to a testing dataset. Because the WOFS algorithm’s classifications are used as the truth values when training a WASARD classifier, when precision and recall are mentioned in this paper, they are always with respect to the values produced by WOFS on a similar scene of Landsat data, which themselves have a classification accuracy of 97% [6]. Visual representations of water identified by WASARD in this paper were produced using the function wasard_plot(), which is included in WASARD. 3.1 Algorithm Selection The machine learning model used by WASARD is the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses a supervised learning algorithm to develop a classifier, meaning it creates a vector which can be multiplied by the vector formed by the relevant data bands to determine whether a pixel in a SAR scene contains water. This classifier is trained by comparing data points from selected bands in a SAR scene to their respective labels, which in this case are “water” or “not water” as given by the WOFS algorithm. The SVM was selected over the Random Forest model, which outperformed the SVM in training speed, but had a greater classification time and lower accuracy, and the Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, which had a slightly higher average accuracy than the SVM, but much greater training and classification times. Figure 1: Visual representation of the SVM Classifier. Each white point represents a pixel in a SAR scene. In Figure 1, the diagonal line separating pixels determined to be water from those determined not to be water represents the actual classification vector produced by the SVM. It is worth noting that once the model has been trained, classification of pixels is done in a similar manner as in the thresholding method. This is especially true if only one band was used to train the model. 3.1 Feature Selection Sentinel-1 collects data from two bands: the Vertical/Vertical polarization (VV) and the Vertical/Horizontal polarization (VH). When 100 SVM classifiers were created for each polarization individually, and for the combination of the two, the following results were achieved: Figure 2: Accuracy of classifiers trained using different polarization bands. Precision and Recall were measured with respect to the values produced by WOFS. Figure 2 demonstrates that using both the VV and VH bands trades slightly lower recall for significantly greater precision when compared with the VH band alone, and that using the VV band alone is inferior in both metrics. WASARD therefore defaults to using both the VV and VH bands, and includes the option to use solely the VH band. The VV polarization’s lower precision compared to the VH polarization is in contrast to results from previous research and may merit further analysis [4]. 3.2 Training a Classifier The steps in training a classifier with WASARD are 1. Selecting two scenes (one SAR, one optical) with the same spatial extents, and acquired close to each other in time, with a preference that the scenes are taken on the same day. 2. Using the WOFS algorithm to produce an array of the detected water in the scene of optical data, to be used as the labels during supervised learning 3. Data points from the selected bands from the SAR acquisition are bundled together into an array with the corresponding labels gathered from WOFS. A random sample with an equal number of points labeled “Water” and “Not Water” is selected to be partitioned into a training and a testing dataset 4. Using Scikit-Learn’s LinearSVC object, the training dataset is used to produce a classifier, which is then tested against the testing dataset to determine its precision and recall The result is a wasard_classifier object, which has the following attributes: 1. f1, recall, and precision: 3 metrics used to determine the classifier’s accuracy 2. Coefficient: Vector which the SVM uses to make its predictions. The classifier detects water when the dot product of the coefficient and the vector formed by the SAR bands is positive 3. Save(): allows a user to save a classifier to the disk in order to use it without retraining 4. wasard_classify(): Classifies an entire xarray of SAR data using the SVM classifier All of the above steps are performed automatically when the user creates a wasard_classifier object. 3.3 Classifying a Dataset Once the classifier has been created, it can be used to detect water in an xarray of SAR data using wasard_classify(). By taking the dot product of the classifier’s coefficients and the vector formed by the selected bands of SAR data, an array of predictions is constructed. A classifier can effectively be used on the same spatial extents as the ones where it was trained, or on any area with a similar landscape. While

Kreiser, Zachary↗

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗

Characterization of lateral amorphous selenium photodetectors for low-photon and VUV detection at cryogenic temperatures

The performance of amorphous selenium (a-Se) as a cryogenic photodetector material is evaluated through a series of experiments using laterally structured devices operated in a custom optical test stand. These studies investigate the response of a-Se detectors to low-photon fluxes at high electric fields near avalanche conditions, the linearity of the photoconductive response over a wide dynamic range and the direct detection of narrowband 130 nm vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) illumination. At 87 K, matched-filter analysis shows reliable single-shot detection with efficiencies ≥80% and area under the curve (AUC) ≥ 0.85 using as few as ∼ 6800 incident 401 nm photons, corresponding to ∼ 3400 photons within field-active regions after accounting for geometric constraints. Measurements are performed at cryogenic temperatures using calibrated photon fluxes derived from a silicon photomultiplier reference and a characterized optical filter stack. Additional experiments using a tellurium-doped a-Se (a-SeTe) device explore the material's behavior under identical test conditions and demonstrate that avalanche is achievable in a-SeTe at cryogenic temperatures. The results demonstrate reproducible low-noise operation, VUV sensitivity and field-dependent gain behavior in a lateral a-Se architecture, representing the first reported observation of avalanche multiplication in laterally structured a-Se and a-SeTe devices at cryogenic temperatures. These findings support the potential integration of laterally structured a-Se devices into next-generation pixelated liquid-argon time projection chambers (TPCs) requiring scalable, high-field-compatible photon detection systems.

Amorphous selenium↗

Characterization of Lateral Amorphous Selenium Photodetectors for Low-Photon and VUV Detection at Cryogenic Temperatures

The performance of amorphous selenium (a-Se) as a cryogenic photodetector material is evaluated through a series of experiments using laterally structured devices operated in a custom optical test stand. These studies investigate the response of a-Se detectors to low-photon fluxes at high electric fields near avalanche conditions, the linearity of the photoconductive response over a wide dynamic range and the direct detection of narrowband 130 nm vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) illumination. At 87 K, matched-filter analysis shows reliable single-shot detection with efficiencies greater than or equal to 80 percent and area under the curve (AUC) greater than or equal to 0.85 using as few as approximately 6800 incident 401 nm photons, corresponding to approximately 3400 photons within field-active regions after accounting for geometric constraints. Measurements are performed at cryogenic temperatures using calibrated photon fluxes derived from a silicon photomultiplier reference and a characterized optical filter stack. Additional experiments using a tellurium-doped a-Se (a-SeTe) device explore the material's behavior under identical test conditions and demonstrate that avalanche is achievable in a-SeTe at cryogenic temperatures. The results demonstrate reproducible low-noise operation, VUV sensitivity and field-dependent gain behavior in a lateral a-Se architecture, representing the first reported observation of avalanche multiplication in laterally structured a-Se and a-SeTe devices at cryogenic temperatures. These findings support the potential integration of laterally structured a-Se devices into next-generation pixelated liquid-argon time projection chambers (TPCs) requiring scalable, high-field-compatible photon detection systems.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Development of a Robust, Efficient Process to Produce Scalable, Superconducting Kilopixel Far-IR Detector Arrays

The far-IR band is uniquely suited to study the physical conditions in the interstellar medium from nearby sources out to the highest redshifts. FIR imaging and spectroscopy instrumentation using incoherent superconducting bolometers represents a high sensitivity technology for many future suborbital and space missions, including the Origins Space Telescope. Robust, high sensitivity detector arrays with several 104 pixels, large focal plane filling factors, and low cosmic ray cross sections that operate over the entire far-IR regime are required for such missions. These arrays could consist of smaller sub-arrays, in case they are tileable. The TES based Backshort Under Grid array architecture which our group has fielded in a number of FIR cameras, is a good candidate to meet these requirements: BUGs are tileable, and with the integration of the SQUID multiplexer scaleable beyond wafer sizes; they provide high filling factors, low cosmic cross section and have been demonstrated successfully in far-infrared astronomical instrumentation. However, the production of BUGs with integrated readout multiplexers has many time and resource consuming process steps. In order to meet the requirement of robustness and efficiency on the production of future arrays, we have developed a new method to provide the superconducting connection of BUG detectors to the readout multiplexers or general readout boards behind the detectors. This approach should allow us to reach the goal to produce reliable, very large detector arrays for future FIR missions.

Staguhn, Johannes↗

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Role of Clear Sky Identification in the Study of Cloud Radiative Effects: Combine Analysis from ISCCP and the Scanner of Radiation Budget (ScaRaB)

Since the effect of clouds on the earth's radiation balance is often estimated as the difference of net radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere between all situations and monthly averaged clear sky situations of the same regions, a reliable identification of clear sky is important for the study of cloud radiative effects. The Scanner for Radiation Balance (ScaRaB) radiometer on board the Russian Meteor-3/7 satellite provided earth radiation budget observations from March 1994 to February 1995 with two ERBE-Re broad-band longwave and shortwave channels. Two narrow-band channels, in the infrared atmospheric window and in the visible band, have been added to the ScaRaB instrument to improve the cloud scene identification. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) method for cloud detection and determination of cloud and surface properties uses the same narrow-band channels as ScaRaB, but is employed to a collection of measurements at a better spatial resolution of about 5 km. By applying the original ISCCP algorithms to the ScaRaB data, the clear sky frequency is about 5% lower than the one over quasi-simultaneous original ISCCP data, an indication that the ISCCP cloud detection is quite stable. However, one would expect an about 10 to 20% smaller clear sky occurrence over the larger ScaRaB pixels. Adapting the ISCCP algorithms to the reduced spatial resolution of 60 km and to the different time sampling of the ScaRaB data leads therefore to a reduction of a residual cloud contamination. A sensitivity study with time-space collocated ScaRaB and original ISCCP data at a spatial resolution of 1deg longitude x 1deg latitude shows that the effect of clear sky identification method plays a higher role on the clear sky frequency and therefore on the statistics than on the zonal mean values of the clear sky fluxes. Nevertheless, the zonal outgoing longwave fluxes corresponding to ERBE clear sky are in general about 2 to 10 W/sq m higher than those obtained from the ScaRaB adapted ISCCP clear sky identifications. The latter are close to (about 1 W/sq m higher) fluxes corresponding to clear sky regions from original ISCCP data, whereas ScaRaB clear sky LW fluxes obtained with the original ISCCP identification lie about 1 to 2 W/sq m below. Especially in the tropics where water vapor abundance is high, the ERBE clear sky LW fluxes seem to be systematically overestimated by about 4 W/sq m, and SW fluxes are lower by about 5 to 10 W/sq m. However, the uncertainty in the analysis of monthly mean zonal cloud radiative effects is also produced by the low frequency of clear sky occurrence, illustrated when averaging over pixels or even over regions of 4deg longitude x 5deg latitude, corresponding to the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models. The systematic bias in the clear sky fluxes is not reflected in the zonal cloud radiative effects, because the clear sky regions selected by the different algorithms can occur in different geographic regions with different cloud properties.

Rossow, W. B.↗

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗

Comprehensive Severe Weather Impact Assessment and Monitoring using Synthetic Aperture Radar and Auxiliary Data

Remote sensing datasets, particularly acquired by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, have become increasingly important in severe weather disaster impact studies given their ability to observe the Earth largely irrespective of weather and sunlight conditions. The reliability of existing SAR change detection products applied on a pair of SAR images is constrained by the limitation of current methods to differentiate and classify disaster specific changes from anthropogenic surface alterations. Moreover, the inherent properties of the sensors, variations in SAR backscatter due to changes in surface conditions, and other factors exacerbate these limitations. We proposed a novel procedure expanding on earlier SAR-based change detection methods to exclude anthropogenic alterations and other sources of ambiguity that might lead to inaccurate mapping of the impacts of severe weather disasters. We applied the proposed procedure that is based on long term interferometric and amplitude-based change detection analyses of Sentinel- 1 SAR imagery to two study sites recently impacted by severe weather disasters (Flooding post severe weather events in urban centers; Hailstorm damage on crops). For the first case study, Sentinel-1 SLC scenes from two flood events in the Houston area (April 2016 flooding event and Hurricane Harvey of August-September 2017) were used to construct a flood map depicting areas repeatedly affected by the flood. Pixels with consistent coherence values in the pre-disaster coherence stack were retained for comparison with the pre- and post-disaster coherence stack and pixels with significant decline (greater than 60%) in coherence values were retained in the final flood map. The findings of the applied technique were calibrated and validated through datasets from NOAA/NWS Service storm reports, aerial imaging (NOAA and Civil Air Patrol), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reporting, and targeted collections of NASA’s L-band UAVSAR data. Findings and products derived from the adopted methodology can be useful in disaster response and mitigation activities.

Gebremichael, Esayas↗

Estimating Temperature Retrieval Accuracy Associated With Thermal Band Spatial Resolution Requirements for Center Pivot Irrigation Monitoring and Management

This study explores the use of synthetic thermal center pivot irrigation scenes to estimate temperature retrieval accuracy for thermal remote sensed data, such as data acquired from current and proposed Landsat-like thermal systems. Center pivot irrigation is a common practice in the western United States and in other parts of the world where water resources are scarce. Wide-area ET (evapotranspiration) estimates and reliable water management decisions depend on accurate temperature information retrieval from remotely sensed data. Spatial resolution, sensor noise, and the temperature step between a field and its surrounding area impose limits on the ability to retrieve temperature information. Spatial resolution is an interrelationship between GSD (ground sample distance) and a measure of image sharpness, such as edge response or edge slope. Edge response and edge slope are intuitive, and direct measures of spatial resolution are easier to visualize and estimate than the more common Modulation Transfer Function or Point Spread Function. For these reasons, recent data specifications, such as those for the LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission), have used GSD and edge response to specify spatial resolution. For this study, we have defined a 400-800 m diameter center pivot irrigation area with a large 25 K temperature step associated with a 300 K well-watered field surrounded by an infinite 325 K dry area. In this context, we defined the benchmark problem as an easily modeled, highly common stressing case. By parametrically varying GSD (30-240 m) and edge slope, we determined the number of pixels and field area fraction that meet a given temperature accuracy estimate for 400-m, 600-m, and 800-m diameter field sizes. Results of this project will help assess the utility of proposed specifications for the LDCM and other future thermal remote sensing missions and for water resource management.

Ryan, Robert E.↗

Small Glacier Area Studies: A New Approach for Turkey

Many regions of Earth have glaciers that have been neglected for study because they are small. We report on a new approach to overcome the problem of studying small glaciers, using Turkey as an example. Prior to our study, no reliable estimates of Turkish glaciers existed because of a lack of systematic mapping, difficulty in using Landsat data collected before 1982, snowpack vs. glacier ice differentiation using existing satellite data and aerial photography, the previous high cost of Landsat images, and a lack of high-resolution imagery of small Turkish glaciers. Since 2008, a large number of < 1 m satellite images have become available at no cost to the research community. In addition, Landsat data are now free of charge from the U.S. Geological Survey, enabling the use of multiple images. We used 174 Landsat and eight high-resolution satellite images to document the areal extent of Turkish glaciers from the 1970s to 2007-2011. Multiple Landsat images, primarily Thematic Mapper (TM) data from 1984 to 2011, enabled us to minimize differentiation problems between snow and glacier ice, a potential source of error. In addition, we used Ikonos, Quickbird, and World View-1 & -2 very high-resolution imagery to evaluate our TM accuracies and determine the area of nine smaller glaciers in Turkey. We also used five Landsat-3 Return Beam Videcon (RBV) 30 m pixel resolution images, all from 1980, for six glaciers. The total area of Turkish glaciers decreased from 23 km2 in the 1970s to 10.1 km2 in 2007-2011. By 2007-2011, six Turkish glaciers disappeared, four were < 0.3 km2, and only three were 1.0 km2 or larger. No trends in precipitation from 1970 to 2006 and cloud cover from 1980 to 2010 were found, while surface temperatures increased, with summer minimum temperatures showing the greatest increase. We conclude that increased surface temperatures during the summer were responsible for the 56% recession of Turkish glaciers from the 1970s to 2006-2011.

Yavasli, Dogukan D.↗