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Presentation to describe risk classificaiton definitions, and gudelines, as well as an approach for performing risk-based safety and mission assurance.
We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.
When an organization sets out on a new effort, program, or project, one of the first steps undertaken is to understand the related requirements. Most often, these requirements come in the form of standards, directives, or other organizational processes, and are derived to meet a broad range of efforts, programs, and projects. The net result is that organizations or teams are forced to start with a maximum set of requirements and expend time and energy tailoring the set of requirements down to what is more appropriate for the effort, program, or project at hand. This presentation will present an alternate method for the application of requirements or best practices that is based upon the actual risks to the safety, performance, or success of the effort. This additive route for applying best practices and requirements also encourages an early exploration of the risks, thus yielding a better understanding of where resources should be applied. This presentation also extends this concept of risk-based application of best practices and requirements to the selection of organization-wide improvement or standardization efforts, such as Lean, Six Sigma, and Quality Management Systems.
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In response to the elimination of production of several Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODC's) which have been widely used in successful space flight mechanism cleaning and lubricating procedures, GSFC developed and implemented an overall philosophy of mitigating the risks to flight hardware during the transition phase to ODC-free cleaning procedures. The short term leg of the philosophy was the stockpiling of an appropriate amount of ODC solvents such that all short term GSFC missions will be able to stay with or revert to heritage cleaning and lubricating procedures in the face of life issues. The long-term leg of that philosophy was the initiation of a several tier testing program that will deliver increasing amounts of information over the next few years, starting with accelerated lubricant life tests that compare lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC solvents with lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC-free solvents. While tribological testing, mechanism life testing and space-flight experience will ultimately bring us into the 21st century with environmentally friendly means of cleaning long-life precision mechanism components, many satellites will be launched over the next few years before a number of important tribological questions can be answered. In order to prepare for this challenge, the Materials Engineering Branch in cooperation with the Electromechanical Branch launched an intensive review of all ongoing missions. The failure risk was determined for each long-life lubricated mechanism based on a number of parameters, including 4 comparison of flight solvents used to clean the heritage/life test hardware. Also studied was the ability of the mechanism manufacturers to stockpile ODC's based on state laws and company policies. A stockpiling strategy was constructed based on this information and subsequently implemented. This paper provides an overview of the GSFC ODC elimination risk mitigation philosophy as well as a detailed examination of the development of the ODC stockpiling plan.
The performance of the Kuband radar was analyzed in detail, and the performance was updated and summarized. In so doing, two different radar design philosophies were described, and the corresponding differences in losses were enumerated. The resulting design margins were determined for both design philosophies and for both the designated and nondesignated range modes of operation. In some cases, the design margin was about zero, and in other cases it was significantly less than zero. With the point of view described above, the recommended solution is to allow more scan time but at the present scan rate. With no other changes in the present configuration, the radar met design detection specifications for all design philosophies at a range of 11.3 nautical miles.
The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) definition, design philosophy, robust design, maximum design condition, casting vs. machined and welded forgings, operability considerations, high reliability design philosophy, engine reliability enhancement, low cost design philosophy, engine systems requirements, STME schematic, fuel turbopump, liquid oxygen turbopump, main injector, and gas generator. The major engine components of the STME and the Space Shuttle Main Engine are compared.
The assured mission support space architecture (AMSSA) study was conducted with the overall goal of developing a long-term requirements-driven integrated space architecture to provide responsive and sustained space support to the combatant commands. Although derivation of an architecture was the focus of the study, there are three significant products from the effort. The first is a philosophy that defines the necessary attributes for the development and operation of space systems to ensure an integrated, interoperable architecture that, by design, provides a high degree of combat utility. The second is the architecture itself; based on an interoperable system-of-systems strategy, it reflects a long-range goal for space that will evolve as user requirements adapt to a changing world environment. The third product is the framework of a process that, when fully developed, will provide essential information to key decision makers for space systems acquisition in order to achieve the AMSSA goal. It is a categorical imperative that military space planners develop space systems that will act as true force multipliers. AMSSA provides the philosophy, process, and architecture that, when integrated with the DOD requirements and acquisition procedures, can yield an assured mission support capability from space to the combatant commanders. An important feature of the AMSSA initiative is the participation by every organization that has a role or interest in space systems development and operation. With continued community involvement, the concept of the AMSSA will become a reality. In summary, AMSSA offers a better way to think about space (philosophy) that can lead to the effective utilization of limited resources (process) with an infrastructure designed to meet the future space needs (architecture) of our combat forces.
With the downturn of the world economy, the priority of unmanned exploration of the solar system has been lowered. Instead of foregoing all missions to our neighbors in the solar system, a new philosophy of exploration mission design has evolved to insure the continued exploration of the solar system. The 'Discovery-class' design philosophy uses a low cost, limited mission, available technology spacecraft instead of the previous 'Voyager-class' design philosophy that uses a 'do-everything at any cost' spacecraft. The Percival Mission to Mars was proposed by Ares Industries as one of the new 'Discovery-class' of exploration missions. The spacecraft will be christened Percival in honor of American astronomer Percival Lowell who proposed the existence of life on Mars in the early twentieth century. The main purpose of the Percival mission to Mars is to collect and relay scientific data to Earth suitable for designing future manned and unmanned missions to Mars. The measurements and observations made by Percival will help future mission designers to choose among landing sites based on the feasibility and scientific interest of the sites. The primary measurements conducted by the Percival mission include gravity field determination, surface and atmospheric composition, sub-surface soil composition, sub-surface seismic activity, surface weather patterns, and surface imaging. These measurements will be taken from the orbiting Percival spacecraft and from surface penetrators deployed from Mars orbit. The design work for the Percival Mission to Mars was divided among four technical areas: Orbits and Propulsion System, Surface Penetrators, Gravity and Science Instruments, and Spacecraft Structure and Systems. The results for each of the technical areas is summarized and followed by a design cost analysis and recommendations for future analyses.
In response to the elimination of production of several Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODCs) which have been widely used in successful space flight mechanism cleaning and lubricating procedures, GSFC developed and implemented an overall philosophy of mitigating the risks to flight hardware during the transition phase to ODC-Free cleaning procedures. One leg of that philosophy is the initiation of a several tier testing program which will deliver increasing amounts of information over the next few years, starting with original surface analysis comparisons between ODC and various ODC-Free cleaning technologies. The other leg is the stockpiling of an appropriate amount of ODC solvents such that all short term GSFC missions will be able to stay with or revert to heritage cleaning and lubricating procedures in the face of life issues. While tribological testing, mechanism life testing and space-flight experience will ultimately bring us into the 21st century with environmentally friendly means of cleaning long-life precision mechanism components, many satellites will be launched over the next few years with a number of important tribological questions unanswered. In order to prepare for this challenge, the Materials Engineering Branch in cooperation with the Electromechanical Branch launched an intensive review of all ongoing missions. The failure risk was determined for each long-life mechanism based on a number of parameters, including a comparison of flight solvents used to clean the heritage/life test hardware. Also studied was the ability of the mechanism manufacturers to stockpile ODCs based on state laws and company policies. A stockpiling strategy was constructed based on this information and subsequently implemented. This paper provides an overview of the GSFC ODC elimination risk mitigation philosophy as well as a detailed examination of the development of the ODC stockpiling plan.
A new philosophy is developed wherein the hierarchical definition of data is made use of in creating a better environment to conduct analyses of practical problems. This system can be adapted to conduct virtually any type of analysis, since this philosophy is not bound to any specific kind of analysis. It provides a framework to manage different models and its results and more importantly, the interaction between the different models. Thus, it is ideal for many types of finite element analyses like globalAoca1 analysis and those that involve multiple scales and fields. The system developed during the course of this work is just a demonstrator of the basic concepts. A complete implementation of this strategy could potentially make a major impact on the way analyses are conducted. It could considerably reduce the time frame required to conduct the analysis of real-life problems by efficient management of the data involved and reducing the human effort involved. It also helps in better decision making because of more ways to interpret the results. The strategy has been currently implemented for structural analysis, but with more work it could be extended to other fields of science when the finite element method is used to solve the differential equations numerically. This report details the work that has been done during the course of this project and its achievements and results. The following section discusses the meaning of the word hierarchical and the different references to the term in the literature. It talks about the development of the finite element method, its different versions and how hierarchy has been used to improve the methodology. The next section describes the hierarchical philosophy in detail and explains the different concepts and terms associated with it. It goes on to describe the implementation and the features of the demonstrator. A couple of problems are analyzed using the demonstrator program to show the working of the system. The two problems considered are two dimensional plane stress analysis problems. The results are compared with those obtained using conventional analysis. The different challenges faced during the development of this system are discussed. Finally, we conclude with suggestions for future work to add more features and extend it to a wider range of problems.
This paper presents viewgraphs showing the trends and Statistical Process Control (SPC) used by ATK-Thiokol to reduce Foreign Object Debris (FOD). Some of the topics include: 1) Amazing Little Known and Less Used Facts; 2) Critical Nature of Rocket Manufacturing; 3) ATK-Thiokol Foreign Object Debris (FOD) Philosophy; 4) FOD Trending and SPC at ATK-Thiokol Philosophy; 5) Trending and Statistical Process Control (SPC) Basic Philosophy; 6) Trending and Statistical Process Control (SPC); 7) FOD Trending and SPC at ATK-Thiokol Trending; 8) FOD Trending and SPC at ATK-Thiokol Specific Instances; 9) FOD Trending and SPC at ATK-Thiokol Contamination in Air; and 10) FOD Trending and SPC at ATK-Thiokol Nitrogen Dewpoint.
The Psyche Mission presents the first opportunity toexplore the largest metal asteroid in the solar system, (16)Psyche, which is believed to be the exposed core of a largerplanetesimal that was stripped of its rocky mantle throughmultiple collisions during early solar system formation. Themission was selected in January 2017 for a 2022 launch as partof NASA’s Discovery Program and is uniquely enabled by theintegration of a Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) Chassisdelivered by Maxar Space Solutions with JPL’s core deepspace avionics, flight software, and fault managementarchitectures. One of the key design tasks is the development ofa fault management system capable of being responsive to theunique elements of the combined JPL and Maxar spacecraftarchitecture. This new design leverages the strengths of eachorganization, with Maxar delivering its well-proven highvoltage power bus and low-thrust electric propulsionsubsystem from its GEO communications satellite product line,and JPL delivering its deep space mission expertise and thehardware and software most critical to deep space missiondesign. The development of a robust low-thrust mission andthe integration of design philosophies and hardware from twoorganizations is not without its challenges though.A key challenge in the development of the Psyche faultmanagement architecture and design is in the integration ofdesign philosophies and hardware from JPL and Maxar. Atthe architecture level, Maxar GEO communications satellitesare developed under the premise of highly responsive groundin the loop for the resolution of anomalies, and theimplementation takes a fail-operational approach to minimizedown time for its customers. In contrast, a deep space missionmust be able to maintain safety with long periods of groundcommunication outage. Additionally, with no time-criticalevents after launch, the Psyche spacecraft will generally failsafe in the presence of anomalous conditions; specialconsideration is being given to this approach, however, tominimize the loss of electric propulsion thrust time, which iscritical to low-thrust missions. At the hardware level, thedetailed definition of interfaces between JPL and Maxarhardware presents a unique challenge in the development andflowdown of fault management requirements, the developmentand implementation of fault monitors and responses, and thedevelopment and verification of fault containment boundaries.This paper describes the evolution of the Psyche faultmanagement architecture and design from the concept studyinto the preliminary design phase, with a focus on the uniquechallenges associated with flying GEO communicationssatellite hardware in deep space, implementing a robust lowthrust mission, and the integration of design philosophies andhardware from JPL and Maxar. Details regarding how thesechallenges are addressed in the fault management design inorder to maximize heritage, leverage the strengths of eachorganization, and minimize risk across the design are alsodiscussed.
Leadership in the scientific enterprise is most commonly exemplified by those who commandeer major discoveries and critical breakthroughs that expand boundaries, naturally underpinning a competitive spirit among peers in the field. However, many other leadership opportunities exist at the interfaces of such boundaries - as well as at the interfaces of scientific disciplines, classes of professions and across generations - and may enable alternative guiding philosophies that are intrinsically less prone to competition and saturation, and perhaps appreciation. This presentation features a personal reflection of scientific and leadership philosophies that were intentionally manifested at, and by, irreplaceable interfaces of human creativity. Reaction engineering, an increasingly vanishing discipline within chemical engineering, is emphasized as a manifestation of interfacial leadership and serves as a vehicle to trace pivotal career moments in both the speaker's scientific discoveries and in his relational values within human enterprises.