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At least 127 records · Page 7

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine Learning for Multipactor Susceptibility Prediction in Planar RF Gaps

Multipactor discharge is a nonlinear electron avalanche that limits the performance of high-power radio-frequency (RF) and vacuum electronic devices. Predicting multipactor susceptibility traditionally relies on Monte Carlo or particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, which become computationally expensive for large parametric studies. In this work, we present a supervised machine-learning (ML) framework for prediction of multipactor susceptibility in a two-surface planar geometry. The models are trained using high-fidelity PIC simulation generated susceptibility data and learn the relationship between operational parameters, geometry, and material-dependent secondary electron emission properties. The proposed approach enables rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts while preserving the physical structure of multipactor growth regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Mechanistic and Mitigation-Strategy Insights into NaCl and CaCl 2 Contamination of Proton-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolysis Using Continuum Modeling

Cationic contaminants are detrimental to proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs). To obtain insight, a 1-D, nonisothermal, multiphase continuum cell model including cationic contamination is developed. Simulations of steady-state cell performance predict decreased performance due to an increase in kinetic overpotential associated with the hydrogen-evolution reaction, which was attributed to decreased protonic-activity within the cathode catalyst layer from proton supplantation with contaminant cations. The accumulation and extent of cation exchange in the cathode catalyst layer depends on the operating current density due to migration. Simulations of cell recovery of potential suggest that a contaminated cell can recover approximately 78% (450 mV) with 24 h of constant current density operation at 2 A cm –2 , with higher current densities accelerating reduced recovery times. Parametric studies show that anode-side acidification at lower current densities inhibit cation contaminant adsorption, and cathode-side acidification at larger current densities facilitate the expulsion of adsorbed cations; for a cathode-side pH of 6 and 5, the cell can recover an additional 10% and 100% performance, respectively. Overall, the model serves as a framework for modeling other aspects of PEMWE systems to address durability and performance aspects, which can assist in improving the viability of the technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pulsating Poiseuille flow of a cement slurry

In this paper, we investigate the pulsatile flow of a cement slurry in a pipe. The constitutive relation for the viscous stress tensor is based on the power-law model, where the shear viscosity not only depends on the shear rate but also the volume fraction of the cement particles. To solve for the volume fraction field, a convection-diffusion equation is used. The dimensionless form of the governing equations and the boundary conditions are solved numerically at different pulsatile cycles. Further, a parametric study is conducted to study the effect of different dimensionless numbers at different cycles on the velocity and the volume fraction profiles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unified model of nucleon elastic form factors and implications for neutrino-oscillation experiments

Precise knowledge of the nucleon’s axial-current form factors is crucial for modeling GeV-scale neutrino-nucleus interactions. Unfortunately, the axial form factor remains insufficiently constrained to meet the precision requirements of upcoming long-baseline neutrino-oscillation experiments. This work studies the nucleon’s axial and vector form factors using the light-front approach to build a quark-diquark model of the nucleon with an explicit pion cloud. The light-front wave functions in both the quark and pion-baryon Fock spaces are first calibrated to existing experimental information on the nucleon’s electromagnetic form factors and then used to predict the axial form factor. The resulting squared charge radius of the axial pseudovector form factor is predicted to be $r$$^{2}_{A}$ = 0.29 ± 0.03 fm 2 , where the small error accounts for the model’s parametric uncertainty. We use our form factor results to explore the (quasi)elastic scattering of neutrinos by (nuclei)nucleons, with the result that the widely implemented dipole ansatz is an inadequate approximation of the full form factor for modeling both processes. Here, the approximation leads to a 5%–10% overestimation of the total cross section, depending on the (anti)neutrino energy. We project overestimations of similar size in the flux-averaged cross sections for the upcoming DUNE long-baseline neutrino-oscillation experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A comparison of neural network architectures for data-driven reduced-order modeling

The popularity of deep convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) has engendered new and effective reduced-order models (ROMs) for the simulation of large-scale dynamical systems. Despite this, it is still unknown whether deep CAEs provide superior performance over established linear techniques or other network-based methods in all modeling scenarios. To elucidate this, the effect of autoencoder architecture on its associated ROM is studied through the comparison of deep CAEs against two alternatives: a simple fully connected autoencoder, and a novel graph convolutional autoencoder. Through benchmark experiments, it is shown that the superior autoencoder architecture for a given ROM application is highly dependent on the size of the latent space and the structure of the snapshot data, with the proposed architecture demonstrating benefits on data with irregular connectivity when the latent space is sufficiently large.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterization of partial wetting by CMAS droplets using multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics and data-driven discovery based on PINNs

The molten sand that is a mixture of calcia, magnesia, alumina and silicate, known as CMAS, is characterized by its high viscosity, density and surface tension. The unique properties of CMAS make it a challenging material to deal with in high-temperature applications, requiring innovative solutions and materials to prevent its buildup and damage to critical equipment. Here, we use multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics simulations to study the wetting dynamics of highly viscous molten CMAS droplets. The simulations are performed in three dimensions, with varying initial droplet sizes and equilibrium contact angles. We propose a parametric ordinary differential equation (ODE) that captures the spreading radius behaviour of the CMAS droplets. The ODE parameters are then identified based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework. Subsequently, the closed-form dependency of parameter values found by the PINN on the initial radii and contact angles are given using symbolic regression. Finally, we employ Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) to assess and quantify the uncertainty associated with the discovered parameters. In brief, this study provides insight into spreading dynamics of CMAS droplets by fusing simple parametric ODE modelling and state-of-the-art machine-learning techniques.

Mechanics↗

Excitation energy dependence of prompt fission γ-ray emission from 241 Pu*

Prompt fission γ rays (PFGs) resulting from the 240 Pu(d,pf) reaction have been measured as a function of fissioning nucleus excitation energy E x at the Oslo Cyclotron Laboratory. We study the average total PFG multiplicity per fission, the average total PFG energy released per fission, and the average PFG energy. No significant changes in these characteristics are observed over the range 5.75 < E x < 8.25 MeV. The physical implications of this result are discussed. The experimental results are compared to simulations conducted using the computational fission model FREYA. We find that FREYA reproduces the experimental PFG characteristics within 8% deviation across the E x range studied. Furthermore, previous excitation energy-dependent PFG measurements conducted below the second-chance fission threshold have large uncertainties, but are generally in agreement with our results within a 2σ confidence interval. However, both a published parametrization of the PFG energy dependence and the most recent PFG evaluation included in ENDF/B-VIII.0 were found to poorly describe the PFG excitation-energy dependence observed in this and previous experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cluster infall for mass calibration in the stage-IV era

The outskirts of galaxy clusters present a promising avenue for constraining cluster masses in a way that is robust to the impact of baryonic physics. We assess the accuracy to which the cluster infall regions can be used for cluster mass calibration. Building on previous work, we parametrize the velocity distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣r,𝑣tan|𝑟,𝑀) of dark matter halos on scales 𝑟 ≥ 5⁢ℎ −1 Mpc as the product of the marginalized distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 r |𝑟,𝑀) and the conditional distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 tan |𝑣 r ,𝑟,𝑀), calibrating the radial and mass dependence of these distributions in numerical simulations. We then project our model along the line of sight to obtain accurate predictions for the distributions of line-of-sight velocities at a given projected radius and cluster mass 𝑃⁡(𝑣 LOS |𝑅,𝑀), which we can observe with spectroscopic survey data. Furthermore, with our model, we forecast that spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument can constrain cluster masses with subpercent-level precision, comparable to that of stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of light output on the timing resolution of organic glass scintillator bars in a dual-ended readout configuration

The effectiveness of detector system modeling and validation depends on the quality of characterization performed on the system. For nuclear nonproliferation applications, which require detectors to address complex and variable field conditions, access to accurate system models is essential. This study presents the timing characterization of organic glass scintillator bars used in an imaging system developed at the University of Michigan. 137 Cs and 60 Co gamma-ray sources were used to determine the coincidence time resolution as a function of measured light output for two Compton scatter events between two organic glass scintillator bars. Timing resolution for two events, each with light output ranging from 100 to 1100 keVee were characterized. The resulting data were fit to a parametric function that was validated to agree with experimental results within ±25 ps. Simulations were performed to establish appropriate calibration points for each organic scintillator, thereby ensuring accurate calibration of light output values during analysis. This work successfully characterized the light output dependence of the coincidence timing resolution of a pair of organic glass detectors for use in an imaging system. Depending on the amount of scintillation light output from the events, the full width at half maximum of the measured coincidence time resolution ranged from 653.2 ± 16.1 ps for low light yields, 100 keVee, to 121.0 ± 8.4 ps for higher yields at 1100 keVee. The insights obtained from the timing resolution behavior will allow for accurate simulation capabilities in future security and verification efforts using scatter-based imaging systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Effects of negative triangularity on microinstabilities in a low-recycling lithium-wall spherical tokamak

In this work, we present a linear gyrokinetic study of the impact of negative triangularity (NT) on microinstabilities in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β (LTX-β), a low-recycling spherical tokamak with liquid lithium plasma-facing components that produce flat electron-temperature profiles [Elliott et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 1382 (2020)]. While NT is widely recognized as a stabilizing mechanism and often associated with improved confinement in conventional tokamaks, this study reveals that its effect is not universally stabilizing in the parameter regime of LTX-β and is shown to be highly sensitive to local equilibria. Using local linear simulations with the GS2 code [Kotschenreuther et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1995)] at ρ=0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 for two representative discharges (#103955 and #109355), and employing the Miller equilibrium model to isolate shaping effects, we find that NT can transition from stabilizing to destabilizing depending on magnetic shear, safety factor, and electron-temperature gradient. In shot #103955, NT reduces growth rates across radii, with strongest stabilization at the edge, whereas in shot #109355, it is stabilizing in the core but destabilizing at mid-radius and edge under experimental conditions. Parametric scans show that flattening the electron-temperature profile, increasing magnetic shear, and reducing the safety factor recover NT stabilization. These results demonstrate that NT stabilization is tunable rather than intrinsic and requires coordinated control of magnetic geometry and gradient drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling Pb(II) Adsorption on Mineral Surfaces: Bridging Density Functional Theory and Experiment with Thermodynamic Insights

Despite decades of work on aqueous lead (Pb) adsorption on a-Fe2O3 (hematite) and a-Al2O3 (alumina), gaps between measurements and modeling obscure molecular-level understanding. Achieving well-matched geometries between theory and experimental for mineral-water interfaces is a hurdle, as surface functional group type and distribution must be accounted for in determining mechanisms. Additionally, computational methods that can describe the substrate are often not appropriate to capture aqueous effects. Progress requires focusing on well-studied and relevant systems, such as key facets (001),(012), and (110) of hematite and alumina, and ubiquitous contaminants such as aqueous Pb. In the past, bulk-parametrized bond-valence principles were used to rationalize Pb(II) adsorption trends. These approaches can break down at surfaces, where flexible bonding environments and adsorption-induced surface relaxations play a critical role. Here, we adapt and apply a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics framework, integrating DFT-calculated energies with experimental data and electrochemical principles, to predict Pb(II) adsorption. Our model results capture trends across the full set of surfaces and predict that inner-sphere Pb(II) sorption on (001) alumina varies from unfavorable to weakly favorable across a range of pH conditions. This aligns with experiment insights that Pb(II) interacts at that surface through outer-sphere interactions. Extending to Fe(II) adsorption, we demonstrate a coverage-dependent site preference, potentially explaining disorder in overlayers grown by the oxidative adsorption of Fe(II) on hematite (001).

lead contamination↗

Scaling considerations for supercritical carbon dioxide cycles including turbomachinery loss models

A modeling framework for the supercritical carbon dioxide recompressed closed Brayton cycle was developed. Unlike typical models, this effort incorporated generalized empirical turbomachinery loss models. Aerodynamic, windage, and leakage losses were considered in order to address the limitations of conventional constant-efficiency turbomachinery assumptions without relying on machine-specific or computationally expensive simulations. The model enables system-level exploration of optimal cycle design across a range of power scales, including smaller scales that are relevant to microreactors and extraterrestrial power applications. Parametric studies and multi-objective optimizations are used to evaluate the trade-offs between thermal efficiency and system compactness based on an analytical heat exchanger scaling model, yielding Pareto-optimal fronts across a range of operating pressures. Results reveal that at small power scales, the Pareto-optimal compressor inlet pressure becomes subcritical due to the increasing influence of density-dependent turbomachinery losses. Here, the relative contributions of each loss mechanism are quantified, and design recommendations are provided for key parameters such as recompression split ratio and generator cavity pressure across varying power scales.

Multi-objective optimization↗

Predicting ductility of Mg/SiCp nanocomposite under multiaxial loading conditions based on unit cell modeling

This article presents an investigation on the ductility of Mg/SiCp under nine different multiaxial loading conditions based on a unit cell (or called representative volumetric element, RVE) finite element model. The constitutive relationship of magnesium matrix is characterized by a model combined Lode angle dependent plasticity model with the CPB06 plasticity model, which is able to describe the tension-compression asymmetry in magnesium matrix. The debonding of the matrix-particle interface and matrix fracture are considered by the modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) fracture model. Simulation results show that the interface debonding and subsequent matrix fracture are responsible for the ductility and fracture of nanocomposite. The computational results with parametric studies are compared and well correlated with experimental data, and it finally gives a stress-based full fracture locus of Mg/SiCp nanocomposite.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nonlinear saturation of whistler modes driven by runaway electrons

Runaway electrons exhibit kinetic instabilities with potentially beneficial consequences. The anomalous Doppler resonance between the electrons and whistler modes is a primary underlying mechanism. These instabilities require a first-principle nonlinear theoretical analysis, which would ultimately enable assessment of their impact on disruption mitigation and diagnostics, especially in ITER-relevant conditions. This paper presents recent progress in developing the required theoretical framework for isolated nonlinear resonances. By employing the generic bump-on-tail model, we predict the wave saturation levels in both near-threshold and strongly driven regimes. Remarkably, for the waves of interest, the parallel component of the wave vector dictates the parallel momentum of the resonant particles. This feature, together with the expected wave saturation level, provides a complete description of the resonance impact on the runaway electron distribution function. We show that the parametric dependence of the nonlinearly saturated mode provides a way to recover certain features of the runaway momentum distribution function.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Linear gyrokinetic stability of a high β non-inductive spherical tokamak

Spherical tokamaks (STs) have been shown to possess properties desirable for a fusion power plant such as achieving high plasma β and having increased vertical stability. To understand the confinement properties that might be expected in the conceptual design for a high β ST fusion reactor, a 1 GW ST plasma equilibrium was analyzed using local linear gyrokinetics to determine the type of micro-instabilities that arise. Kinetic ballooning modes and micro-tearing modes are found to be the dominant instabilities. The parametric dependence of these linear modes was determined and, from the insights gained, the equilibrium was tuned to find a regime marginally stable to all micro-instabilities at θ 0 = 0.0. This work identifies the most important micro-instabilities expected to generate turbulent transport in high β STs. The impact of such modes must be faithfully captured in first-principles-based reduced models of anomalous transport that are needed for predictive simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗