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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Here, we recommend that stomatal slope parameters (g 1 ) be inferred by inversion so that variations in g 1 may be attributed to variations physiological and environmental conditions. Understanding g1 will advance predictions of plant gas exchange and performance under global climate.
This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.
Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.
This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.
Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.
Modern scientific instruments operate under increasingly extreme constraints on bandwidth, latency, and power. Inference at the sensor edge determines experimental data collection efficiency by deciding which information to save for further analysis. Particle tracking detectors at the Large Hadron Collider exemplify this challenge: pixelated silicon sensors generate rich spatiotemporal ionization patterns, yet most of this information is discarded due to data-rate limitations. Concurrently, advancements in co-design tools provide rapid turn-around for incorporating machine learning into application-specific integrated circuits, motivating designs for particle detectors with new integrated technologies. We demonstrate that neural networks embedded in the front-end electronics can infer charged-particle kinematic parameters from a single silicon layer. We regress hit positions and incident angles with calibrated uncertainties, while satisfying stringent constraints on numerical precision, latency, and silicon area. Our results establish a path toward probabilistic inference directly at the edge, opening new opportunities for intelligent sensing in high-rate scientific instruments.
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Fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering ion acoustic wave features using a deep convolutional neural network model is presented. The network was trained from spectra to predict the plasma parameters, including ion velocities, population fractions, and ion and electron temperatures. A fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation was used to model a laboratory astrophysics experiment and simulate a diagnostic image of the ion acoustic wave feature. Network predictions were compared with Bayesian inference of the plasma model parameters for both the simulated and experimentally measured images. Both approaches were fairly accurate predicting the simulated image and the network predictions matched a good portion of the Bayesian results for the experimentally measured image. The Bayesian approach is more robust to noise and motivates future work to train deep learning models with realistic noise. The advantage of the deep learning model is making thousands of predictions in a few hundred milliseconds, compared to a few seconds to minutes per prediction for the optimization and Bayesian approaches presented here. The results demonstrate promising capabilities of deep learning models to analyze Thomson data orders of magnitude faster than conventional methods when using the neural network for standalone analysis. If more rigorous analysis is needed, neural network predictions can be used to quickly initialize other optimization methods and increase chances of success. This is especially useful when the dataset becomes very large or highly dimensional and manually refining initial conditions for the entire dataset are no longer tractable.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.
We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.
The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.
Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.
Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤 CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ CDM) and 90% (𝑤 CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤 CDM). In the context of the 𝑤 CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2𝜎.
Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.
Generative machine learning models are capable of learning the phase behavior in condensed matter systems such as the Ising model. We utilize a score-based modeling procedure called thermodynamic maps to describe the isotropic-nematic phase transition in a melt of Gay-Berne ellipsoids. When trained on samples from a single temperature on either side of the phase transition, this generative machine learning approach infers effectively the nematic order parameter at intermediate temperatures. Furthermore, these results demonstrate score-based models’ ability to learn the physics of a nontrivial liquid crystal phase transition.
At leading order in weak and electromagnetic couplings, cross sections for (anti)neutrino-nucleon elastic scattering are determined by four nucleon form factors that depend on the momentum transfer Q 2 . Including radiative corrections in the Standard Model and potential new physics contributions beyond the Standard Model, eight invariant amplitudes are possible, depending on both Q 2 and the (anti)neutrino energy E ν . We review the definition of these amplitudes and use them to compute both unpolarized and polarized observables including radiative corrections. We show that unpolarized accelerator neutrino cross-section measurements can probe new physics parameter space within the constraints inferred from precision beta decay measurements. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.
In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$. Our model can be used to provide cosmological constraints from forthcoming strong lens surveys, such as the 4MOST Strong Lensing Spectroscopic Legacy Survey (4SLSLS), which is expected to observe 10,000 strong lenses.