COVID-19 Modeling for Pandemic Response [PowerPoint]
The Global Disease Modeling and Forecasting Center created a presentation about the results of the COVID-19 modeling underway, highlighting the joint nature of the efforts.
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The Global Disease Modeling and Forecasting Center created a presentation about the results of the COVID-19 modeling underway, highlighting the joint nature of the efforts.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
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To minimize the indoor transmission of contaminants, such as the virus that can lead to COVID-19, buildings must provide the best indoor air quality possible. Improving indoor air quality can be achieved through the building's HVAC system to decrease any concentration of indoor contaminants by dilution and/or by source removal. However, doing so has practical downsides on the HVAC operation that are not always quantified in the literature. This paper develops a temporal simulation capability that is used to investigate the indoor virus concentration and operational cost of an HVAC system for two mitigation strategies: (1) supplying 100% outdoor air into the building and (2) using different HVAC filters, including MERV 10, MERV 13, and HEPA filters. These strategies are applied to a hypothetical medium office building consisting of five occupied zones and located in a cold and dry climate. We modeled the building using the Modelica Buildings library and developed new models for HVAC filtration and virus transmission to evaluate COVID-19 scenarios. We show that the ASHRAE-recommended MERV 13 filtration reduces the average virus concentration by about 10% when compared to MERV 10 filtration, with an increase in site energy consumption of about 3%. In contrast, the use of 100% outdoor air reduces the average indoor concentration by about an additional 1% compared to MERV 13 filtration, but significantly increases heating energy consumption. Use of HEPA filtration increases the average indoor concentration and energy consumption compared to MERV 13 filtration due to the high resistance of the HEPA filter.
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For Detroit Michigan the arrival of COVID-19 led to intensive measures to prevent further spread of the virus resulting in consequent changes in traffic and energy use. Here, we take advantage of these different emission scenarios to explore CO 2 dynamics in a postindustrial city with a declining population and increasing green space. We present atmospheric CO 2 concentration and net urban ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NUE) from a typical eddy covariance system and canopy greenness from a field camera on the Wayne State University campus in midtown Detroit. We categorized our study period (January 18, 2020–July 31, 2020) into three subperiods associated with the state-wide shelter-in-place order. Our results support that the city was a net carbon source throughout the period, particularly during the shelter-in-place period, although reduced traffic lowered CO 2 concentrations and NUE. However, during the post-order period when traffic was highest, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and NUE were lowest, suggesting that the greening of urban vegetation may have greater carbon mitigation potential than lowering anthropogenic carbon emissions through traffic reductions.
We leverage the unparalleled changes in human activity during COVID-19 and the unmatched capabilities of the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument to understand how lockdowns impact ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) pollution disparities in the United States. The least White communities experienced the largest NO 2 reductions during lockdowns; however, disparities between the least and most White communities are so large that the least White communities still faced higher NO 2 levels during lockdowns than the most White communities experienced prior to lockdowns, despite a ~50% reduction in passenger vehicle traffic. Similar findings hold for ethnic, income, and educational attainment population subgroups. Future strategies to reduce NO 2 disparities will need to target emissions from heavy-duty vehicles.
Here in this study we explore how fallout from the changing public health policy around COVID-19 has changed how researchers access and process their science experiments. Using a combination of techniques from statistical analysis and machine learning, we conduct a retrospective analysis of historical network data for a period around the stay-at-home orders that took place in March 2020. Our analysis takes data from the entire ESnet infrastructure to explore DOE high-performance computing (HPC) resources at OLCF, ALCF, and NERSC, as well as User sites such as PNNL and JLAB. We look at detecting and quantifying changes in site activity using a combination of t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and decision tree analysis. Our findings bring insights into the working patterns and impact on data volume movements, particularly during late-night hours and weekends.
We study exascale parallel algorithms for the selection of intervention or monitoring strategies in massive realistic socio-technical networks through scalable Influence Maximization (InfMax) algorithms. We employ novel techniques to enable efficient scaling on up to 8k nodes of OLCF Frontier, with 65k AMD GPUs and 458k AMD CPU cores. Current state-of-the-art InfMax tools are limited to networks with only a few million actors (vertices) and a few hundred million interactions (edges). By overcoming these limitations, we show that our approach is capable of processing a realistic social contact network of the United States with 285 million nodes and about 8 billion edges. This two orders-of-magnitude improvement over the previous state-of-the-art is obtained by leveraging algorithmic advancements for the InfMax problem and designing several problem-specific approaches to overlap communication with computation, improve GPU efficiency, and lower the application’s memory requirements. We evaluate strong scaling for computing 10k most influential seeds using up to 8k nodes of an exascale system, and weak scaling from 128 to 8k system nodes for seed sets ranging from 625 to 40k seeds. We achieve the fastest-known runtime of 25 minutes while performing 48 million diffusion simulations totaling 2.31 petabytes to identify 40k influential seeds using 8k nodes, and take 5.75 minutes to identify 10k seeds while using 4k nodes.
Shortages of N95 respirators for use by medical personnel have driven consideration of novel conservation strategies, including decontamination for reuse and extended use. Decontamination methods listed as promising by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (vaporous hydrogen peroxide (VHP), wet heat, ultraviolet irradiation (UVI)) and several methods considered for low resource environments (bleach, isopropyl alcohol and detergent/soap) were studied for two commonly used surgical N95 respirators (3M™ 1860 and 1870+ Aura™). Although N95 filtration performance depends on the electrostatically charged electret filtration layer, the impact of decontamination on this layer is largely unexplored. As such, respirator performance following decontamination was assessed based on the fit, filtration efficiency, and pressure drop, along with the relationship between (1) surface charge of the electret layer, and (2) elastic properties of the straps. Decontamination with VHP, wet heat, UVI, and bleach did not degrade fit and filtration performance or electret charge. Isopropyl alcohol and soap significantly degraded fit, filtration performance, and electret charge. Pressure drop across the respirators was unchanged. Modest degradation of N95 strap elasticity was observed in mechanical fatigue testing, a model for repeated donnings and doffings. CDC recommended decontamination methods including VHP, wet heat, and UV light did not degrade N95 respirator fit or filtration performance in these tests. Extended use of N95 respirators may degrade strap elasticity, but a loss of face seal integrity should be apparent during user seal checks. NIOSH recommends performing user seal checks after every donning to detect loss of appropriate fit. Decontamination methods which degrade electret charge such as alcohols or detergents should not be used on N95 respirators. The loss of N95 performance due to electret degradation would not be apparent to a respirator user or evident during a negative pressure user seal check.
The scope of impact that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has had and continues to have on life, society, and the world as we know it will be debated for years to come. One thing is for certain, scientists, engineers, clinicians, and researchers around the globe rallied to heed the call for innovation, particularly in the field of materials science. Here, we feature six articles, two of which showcase primary consumable materials research and development, along with four review articles highlighting materials innovation over the last 18 months in diagnostics, prevention, and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.