Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ordered statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Situating the Vector Density Approach Among Contemporary Continuum Theories of Dislocation Dynamics

Abstract For the past century, dislocations have been understood to be the carriers of plastic deformation in crystalline solids. However, their collective behavior is still poorly understood. Progress in understanding the collective behavior of dislocations has primarily come in one of two modes: the simulation of systems of interacting discrete dislocations and the treatment of density measures of varying complexity that are considered as continuum fields. A summary of contemporary models of continuum dislocation dynamics is presented. These include, in order of complexity, the two-dimensional statistical theory of dislocations, the field dislocation mechanics treating the total Kröner–Nye tensor, vector density approaches that treat geometrically necessary dislocations on each slip system of a crystal, and high-order theories that examine the effect of dislocation curvature and distribution over orientation. Each of theories contain common themes, including statistical closure of the kinetic dislocation transport equations and treatment of dislocation reactions such as junction formation. An emphasis is placed on how these common themes rely on closure relations obtained by analysis of discrete dislocation dynamics experiments. The outlook of these various continuum theories of dislocation motion is then discussed.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Morphological analysis of the polarized synchrotron emission with WMAP and Planck

The bright polarized synchrotron emission, away from the Galactic plane, originates mostly from filamentary structures. We implement a filament finder algorithm which allows the detection of bright elongated structures in polarized intensity maps. We analyse the sky at 23 and 30 GHz as observed respectively by WMAP and Planck. We identify 19 filaments, 13 of which have been previously observed. For each filament, we study the polarization fraction, finding values typically larger than for the areas outside the filaments, excluding the Galactic plane, and a fraction of about 30% is reached in two filaments. We study the polarization spectral indices of the filaments, and find a spectral index consistent with the values found in previous analysis (about -3.1) for more diffuse regions. Decomposing the polarization signals into the E and B families, we find that most of the filaments are detected in P E , but not in P B . We then focus on understanding the statistical properties of the diffuse regions of the synchrotron emission at 23 GHz. Using Minkowski functionals and tensors, we analyse the non-Gaussianity and statistical isotropy of the polarized intensity maps. For a sky coverage corresponding to 80% of the fainter emission, and on scales smaller than 6 degrees (ℓ > 30), the deviations from Gaussianity and isotropy are significantly higher than 3σ. The level of deviation decreases for smaller scales, however, it remains significantly high for the lowest analised scale (~ 1.5°). When 60% sky coverage is analysed, we find that the deviations never exceed 3σ. Finally, we present a simple data-driven model to generate non-Gaussian and anisotropic simulations of the synchrotron polarized emission. The simulations are fitted in order to match the spectral and statistical properties of the faintest 80% sky coverage of the data maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase Diagram of a Deep Potential Water Model

Using the Deep Potential methodology, we construct a model that reproduces accurately the potential energy surface of the SCAN approximation of density functional theory for water, from low temperature and pressure to about 2400 K and 50 GPa, excluding the vapor stability region. The computational efficiency of the model makes it possible to predict its phase diagram using molecular dynamics. Satisfactory overall agreement with experimental results is obtained. Here, the fluid phases, molecular and ionic, and all the stable ice polymorphs, ordered and disordered, are predicted correctly, with the exception of ice III and XV that are stable in experiments, but metastable in the model. The evolution of the atomic dynamics upon heating, as ice VII transforms first into ice VII" and then into an ionic fluid, reveals that molecular dissociation and breaking of the ice rules coexist with strong covalent fluctuations, explaining why only partial ionization was inferred in experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Entropic order parameters in weakly coupled gauge theories

The entropic order parameters measure in a universal geometric way the statistics of non-local operators responsible for generalized symmetries. In this article, we compute entropic order parameters in weakly coupled gauge theories. To perform this computation, the natural route of evaluating expectation values of physical (smeared) non-local operators is prevented by known difficulties in constructing suitable smeared Wilson loops. We circumvent this problem by studying the smeared non-local class operators in the enlarged non-gauge invariant Hilbert space. This provides a generic approach for smeared operators in gauge theories and explicit formulas at weak coupling. In this approach, the Wilson and ’t Hooft loops are labeled by the full weight and co-weight lattices respectively. We study generic Lie groups and discuss couplings with matter fields. Smeared magnetic operators, as opposed to the usual infinitely thin ones, have expectation values that approach one at weak coupling. The corresponding entropic order parameter saturates to its maximum topological value, except for an exponentially small correction, which we compute. On the other hand, smeared ’t Hooft loops and their entropic disorder parameter are exponentially small. We verify that both behaviors match the certainty relation for the relative entropies. In particular, we find upper and lower bounds (that differ by a factor of 2) for the exact coefficient of the linear perimeter law for thin loops at weak coupling. This coefficient is unphysical/non-universal for line operators. We end with some comments regarding the RG flows of entropic parameters through perturbative beta functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

New 26 P( p, γ ) 27 S Thermonuclear Reaction Rate and Its Astrophysical Implications in the rp -process

Accurate nuclear reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S are pivotal for a comprehensive understanding of the rp-process nucleosynthesis path in the region of proton-rich sulfur and phosphorus isotopes. However, large uncertainties still exist in the current rate of 26 P(p, γ) 27 S because of the lack of nuclear mass and energy level structure information for 27 S. We reevaluate this reaction rate using the experimentally constrained 27 S mass, together with the shell model predicted level structure. It is found that the 26 P(p, γ) 27 S reaction rate is dominated by a direct capture reaction mechanism despite the presence of three resonances at E = 1.104, 1.597, and 1.777 MeV above the proton threshold in 27 S. The new rate is overall smaller than the other previous rates from the Hauser–Feshbach statistical model by at least 1 order of magnitude in the temperature range of X-ray burst interest. In addition, we consistently update the photodisintegration rate using the new 27 S mass. The influence of new rates of forward and reverse reaction in the abundances of isotopes produced in the rp-process is explored by postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations. The final abundance ratio of 27 S/ 26 P obtained using the new rates is only 10% of that from the old rate. The abundance flow calculations show that the reaction path 26 P(p, γ) 27 S(β + ,ν) 27 P is not as important as previously thought for producing 27 P. The adoption of the new reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S only reduces the final production of aluminum by 7.1% and has no discernible impact on the yield of other elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite Bubble Statistics Constrain Late Cosmological Phase Transitions

We consider first order cosmological phase transitions (PTs) happening at late times below standard model temperatures T PT ≲ GeV. The inherently stochastic nature of bubble nucleation and the finite number of bubbles associated with a late-time PT lead to superhorizon fluctuations in the PT completion time. We compute how such fluctuations eventually source curvature fluctuations with universal properties, independent of the microphysics of the PT dynamics. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure measurements, we constrain the energy released in a dark-sector PT. For 0.1 eV ≲ T PT ≲ keV this constraint is stronger than both the current bound from additional neutrino species Δ⁢N eff , and in some cases, even CMB-S4 projections. Future measurements of CMB spectral distortions and pulsar timing arrays will also provide competitive sensitivity for keV ≲ T PT ≲ GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling and computational improvements to the simulation of single vector-boson plus jet processes for the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents updated Monte Carlo configurations used to model the production of single electroweak vector bosons (W, Z/γ$^{∗}$) in association with jets in proton-proton collisions for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Improvements pertaining to the electroweak input scheme, parton-shower splitting kernels and scale-setting scheme are shown for multi-jet merged configurations accurate to next-to-leading order in the strong and electroweak couplings. The computational resources required for these set-ups are assessed, and approximations are introduced resulting in a factor three reduction of the per-event CPU time without affecting the physics modelling performance. Continuous statistical enhancement techniques are introduced by ATLAS in order to populate low cross-section regions of phase space and are shown to match or exceed the generated effective luminosity. This, together with the lower per-event CPU time, results in a 50% reduction in the required computing resources compared to a legacy set-up previously used by the ATLAS collaboration. The set-ups described in this paper will be used for future ATLAS analyses and lay the foundation for the next generation of Monte Carlo predictions for single vector-boson plus jets production.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF’s SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal-to-noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity, we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accurate Spin–Orbit Splittings from Relativistic Multireference Electronic Structure Theory

Most nonrelativistic electron correlation methods can be adapted to account for relativistic effects, as long as the relativistic molecular spinor integrals are available, from either a four-, two-, or one-component mean-field calculation. Furthermore, relativistic multireference correlation methods remain a relatively unexplored area, with mixed evidence regarding the improvements brought by perturbative treatments. We report, for the first time, the implementation of state-averaged four-component relativistic multireference perturbation theories to second and third order based on the driven similarity renormalization group (DSRG). With our methods, named 4c-SA-DSRG-MRPT2 and 3, we find that the dynamical correlation included on top of 4c-CASSCF references can significantly improve the spin-orbit splittings in p-block elements and potential energy surfaces when compared to 4c-CASSCF and 4c-CASPT2 results. We further show that 4c-DSRG-MRPT2 and 3 are applicable to these systems over a wide range of the flow parameter, with systematic improvement from second to third order in terms of both improved error statistics and reduced sensitivity with respect to the flow parameter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven design of molecular nanomagnets

Three decades of research in molecular nanomagnets have raised their magnetic memories from liquid helium to liquid nitrogen temperature thanks to a wise choice of the magnetic ion and coordination environment. Still, serendipity and chemical intuition played a main role. In order to establish a powerful framework for statistically driven chemical design, here we collected chemical and physical data for lanthanide-based nanomagnets, catalogued over 1400 published experiments, developed an interactive dashboard (SIMDAVIS) to visualise the dataset, and applied inferential statistical analysis. Our analysis shows that the Arrhenius energy barrier correlates unexpectedly well with the magnetic memory. Furthermore, as both Orbach and Raman processes can be affected by vibronic coupling, chemical design of the coordination scheme may be used to reduce the relaxation rates. Indeed, only bis-phthalocyaninato sandwiches and metallocenes, with rigid ligands, consistently present magnetic memory up to high temperature. Analysing magnetostructural correlations, we offer promising strategies for improvement, in particular for the preparation of pentagonal bipyramids, where even softer complexes are protected against molecular vibrations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on effective field theory couplings using 311.2 days of LUX data

We report here the results of an Effective Field Theory (EFT) WIMP search analysis using LUX data. We build upon previous LUX analyses by extending the search window to include nuclear recoil energies up to $\sim$180 keV$_{nr}$, requiring a reassessment of data quality cuts and background models. In order to use a binned Profile Likelihood statistical framework, the development of new analysis techniques to account for higher-energy backgrounds was required. With a 3.14$\times10^4$ kg$\cdot$day exposure using data collected between 2014 and 2016, we set 90\% C.L. exclusion limits on non-relativistic EFT WIMP couplings to neutrons and protons, providing the most stringent constraints on a significant fraction of the possible EFT WIMP interactions. Additionally, we report world-leading exclusion limits on inelastic EFT WIMP-nucleon recoils.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved modeling of detector response effects in phonon-based crystal detectors used for dark matter searches

Various dark matter search experiments employ phonon-based crystal detectors operated at cryogenic temperatures. Some of these detectors, including certain silicon detectors used by the SuperCDMS Collaboration, are able to achieve single-charge sensitivity when a voltage bias is applied across the detector. The total amount of phonon energy measured by such a detector is proportional to the number of electron-hole pairs created by the interaction. However, crystal impurities and surface effects can cause propagating charges to either become trapped inside the crystal or create additional unpaired charges, producing non-quantized measured energy as a result. A new analytical model for describing these detector response effects in phonon-based crystal detectors is presented. This model improves upon previous versions by demonstrating how the detector response, and thus the measured energy spectrum, is expected to differ depending on the source of events. Finally, we use this model to extract detector response parameters for SuperCDMS HVeV detectors, and illustrate how this robust modelling can help statistically discriminate between sources of events in order to improve the sensitivity of dark matter search experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗