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At least 127 records · Page 7

Impact of bypass ratio on thrust-to-weight for V/STOL

Issues involved in the selection of a V/STOL propulsion system are discussed. The effect of bypass ratio on thrust-to-weight, fuel flow, and hover efficiency is investigated for the cases of four representative tilt propulsion system aircraft. The effect of fan pressure ratio on engine selection is shown to be very mission dependent. It is noted that the FAA requires reserves based on fixed wing or helicopter operations, neither of which is found to be entirely appropriate for STOVL aircraft.

Wilson, Samuel↗

Practical applications of remote sensing technology

Land managers increasingly are becoming dependent upon remote sensing and automated analysis techniques for information gathering and synthesis. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques provide quick and economical information gathering for large areas. The outputs of remote sensing classification and analysis are most effective when combined with a total natural resources data base within the capabilities of a computerized GIS. Some examples are presented of the successes, as well as the problems, in integrating remote sensing and geographic information systems. The need to exploit remotely sensed data and the potential that geographic information systems offer for managing and analyzing such data continues to grow. New microcomputers with vastly enlarged memory, multi-fold increases in operating speed and storage capacity that was previously available only on mainframe computers are a reality. Improved raster GIS software systems have been developed for these high performance microcomputers. Vector GIS systems previously reserved for mini and mainframe systems are available to operate on these enhanced microcomputers. One of the more exciting areas that is beginning to emerge is the integration of both raster and vector formats on a single computer screen. This technology will allow satellite imagery or digital aerial photography to be presented as a background to a vector display.

Whitmore, Roy A., Jr.↗

Disjunctive optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems

This paper proposes a new optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems. The model optimizes both investment decisions (e.g., size, location, and time to install, retire and decommission facilities) and operation decisions (e.g., on/off status, operating capacity, and expected power output). It is also able to optimize reserve systems (or backup systems), as well as the main systems, to improve power systems reliability. An impact of operational strategies of generators (i.e., participating in electricity production vs. remaining as idle units during operation) on power systems reliability is considered. Probability of equipment failures and capacity failure states are used to rigorously estimate the power systems reliability depending on design and operation strategies. The optimization model is formulated with Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP), which is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using the Hull relaxation. Two reliability-related penalties, such as downtime penalty and unmet demand penalty, are included in the objective function to maximize reliability while minimizing the total net present cost. Furthermore, a bilevel decomposition with tailored cuts is developed to reduce computational times of the multi-scale optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by comparing the results with the results obtained from the expansion planning models that do not explicitly consider reliability. In conclusion, we also show that the proposed bilevel decomposition is computationally efficient for solving large scale problems through 5-years and 10-years planning case studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Supervisory Control with Dual Tasking in Post G-Transition Vehicle Landings

BACKGROUND Landing during exploration spaceflight may consist of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. Supervisory control, particularly when performed under cognitive load with additional monitoring tasks, is essential for ensuring overall mission success during landing contingencies. Evaluating performance in a relevant Human Landing System (HLS) supervisory landing task after long-duration microgravity exposure can help identify potential risks from human error and sensorimotor alterations. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. Although training and landing aids facilitate successful landings despite disorientation, these adaptive changes may heighten cognitive demand, which must be considered in the landing strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition while the sensorimotor system remains in a state of adaptive flux to inform appropriate countermeasures. METHODS A Multi-attribute Lunar Table Battery (MALTB) task was developed for an iOS tablet device to provide flexible crew testing and training capabilities in-flight and on the ground. Elements of the tablet task were derived from the Multi-Attribute Task Battery (MATB, Cegarra et al. 2020). The task requires crew members to study a map of a planned landing site and memorizing the terrain and surface landmarks to inform potential divert maneuvers during landing. The user will oversee a series of approaches through touchdown simulations on the tablet with an external camera view of the Lunar surface. The primary responsibility of the crew member will be to execute a divert if the guidance recommended site is erroneous (e.g., the guidance projected landing target is not within 10m of the planned landing site center), or the projected landing site is no longer suitable due to surface obstacles. Considering vehicle maneuverability and fuel reserves, the divert capabilities will diminish as the task progresses. In cases where a divert is initiated, a new landing target will need to be designated by the user and will be evaluated for the proximity to the original pre-planned site. A secondary operational monitoring task will challenge the user's cognitive reserve by requiring the user to maintain several gauges within acceptable limits and respond to a visual indicator while completing the landing approach. Outcome measures include distance from the planned landing site to the user-initiate divert landing location, ground slope at the new landing site, time to divert, the ability to accomplish the secondary monitoring tasks, and perceived workload. The tablet task is being evaluated in a ground-based study to determine the learning effect of first-time users. The tablet task will be utilized in a flight study to test performance multiple times postflight. Future potential testing in-flight have been identified for capsules with iOS tablet devices. Multi-attribute Lunar Table Battery Task MALTB comprises video footage of thirty distinct landing conditions. The landing scenarios feature various landing sites (n = 3), hazardous object sizes (n = 6), sun azimuth degrees (n = 4), camera modes (i.e., fixed or gimbaled), and navigation bias (i.e., true or false). Each seventy second trial uses a sixty-degree constant glideslope trajectory. The application architecture and layout include user identification setup and data storing, a guided walkthrough of the task and interface components, practice mode for task familiarization, and a modified Bedford workload scale administered following task completion. The time-based dependent measures are saved locally to the iOS Files application and post-processing scripts have been developed to evaluate the remaining measures of performance. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew monitoring capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew performance will help better characterize the landing risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This project is funded by NASA’s Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element. REFERENCES Cegarra J, Valery B, Avril E, Calmettes C, Navarro J (2020) OpenMATB: A Multi-Attribute Task Battery promoting task customization, software extensibility and experiment replicability. Behav Res Methods 52:1980-1990 doi: 10.3758/s13428-020-01364-w

Matthew McDonnell↗

Feasibility Study of a Nuclear-Stirling Plant for the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter

NASA is undertaking the design of a new spacecraft to explore the planet Jupiter and its three moons Calisto, Ganymede and Europa. This proposed mission, known as Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) would use a nuclear reactor and an associated electrical generation system (Reactor Power Plant-RPP) to provide power to the spacecraft. The JIMO spacecraft is envisioned to use this power for science and communications as well as Electric Propulsion (EP). Among other potential power-generating concepts, previous studies have considered Thermoelectric and Brayton Power conversion systems, coupled to a liquid metal reactor for the JIMO mission. This paper will explore trades in system mass and radiator area for a nuclear reactor power conversion system, however this study will focus on Stirling power conversion. The Stirling convertor modeled in this study is based upon the Component Test Power Convertor design that was designed and operated successfully under the Civil Space Technology Initiative for use with the SP-100 nuclear reactor i the 1980's and early 1990's. The study design is such that two of the four convertors would operate at any time to generate the 100 kWe while the others are held in reserve. For this study the Stirling convertors hot-side temperature is 1050 K, would operate at a temperature ratio of 2.4 for a minimum mass system and would have a system efficiency of 29%. The Stirling convertor would generate high voltage (400 volt), 100 Hz single phase AC that is supplied to the Power Management and Distribution system. The waste hear is removed from the Stirling convertors by a flowing liquid sodium-potassium eutectic and then rejected by a shared radiator. The radiator consists of two coplanar wings, which would be deployed after the reactor is in space. System trades were performed to vary cycle state point temperatures and convertor design as well as power output. Other redundancy combinations were considered to understand the affects of convertor size and number of spares to the system mass.

Schmitz, Paul C.↗

SP-100 power system conceptual design for lunar base applications

A conceptual design is presented for a nuclear power system utilizing an SP-100 reactor and multiple Stirling cycle engines for operation on the lunar surface. Based on the results of this study, it was concluded that this power plant could be a viable option for an evolutionary lunar base. The design concept consists of a 2500 kWt (kilowatt thermal) SP-100 reactor coupled to eight free-piston Stirling engines. Two of the engines are held in reserve to provide conversion system redundancy. The remaining engines operate at 91.7 percent of their rated capacity of 150 kWe. The design power level for this system is 825 kWe. Each engine has a pumped heat-rejection loop connected to a heat pipe radiator. Power system performance, sizing, layout configurations, shielding options, and transmission line characteristics are described. System components and integration options are compared for safety, high performance, low mass, and ease of assembly. The power plant was integrated with a proposed human lunar base concept to ensure mission compatibility. This study should be considered a preliminary investigation; further studies are planned to investigate the effect of different technologies on this baseline design.

Mason, Lee S.↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stochastic Strategic Participation of Active Distribution Networks With High-Penetration DERs in Wholesale Electricity Markets

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), traditional distribution networks as load-serving entities in wholesale electricity markets, now evolve towards active distribution networks (ADNs) which can proactively participate in wholesale markets by optimally controlling the DERs in their networks. A stochastic bilevel optimization model is proposed in this paper for the strategic participation of ADNs and DERs to provide energy and grid services in wholesale electricity markets. The bilevel optimization model can capture the interactions between the ADN and the wholesale energy and ancillary service markets, considering the uncertainties of DERs in the ADN. In the upper-level model, the ADN makes optimal decisions on energy and reserve bidding considering the availability, uncertainties, and flexibility of DERs. The joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the independent system operator (ISO) is modeled as the lower-level problem. Using strong duality theory and Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions, the proposed bilevel optimization problem is reformulated as mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) problem and further converted into a computationally-solvable mixed-integer second-order-cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and the interactions between an ADN and wholesale electricity markets.

active distribution network↗

Opportunities and Challenges to Capturing Distributed Battery Value via Retail Utility Rates and Programs

Distributed battery deployment is increasing with advanced metering, control, and communication technologies, leaving electric utilities with an under-utilized, flexible grid resource in aggregate. Rates can reflect locational and temporal prices while utility incentive-based programs allow DERs to provide direct grid services. However, utilities must balance accurately reflecting dynamic grid conditions versus simple and feasible design that encourages customer participation. Currently, most rates and incentive-based programs are simple, but as penetration of DER and advanced controls increase, dynamic designs could become prevalent. Utilities could encourage providing multiple services to optimize distributed battery dispatch and value streams, however, challenges persist when stacking services across distribution and bulk systems. A DER committed to multiple discrete services concurrently necessitates coordination between operators and a clear hierarchy of commitments. One way to address this is to separate commitments by time or capacity. For services that follow cyclic, predictable patterns, or those that are peak driven with predictability, an operator could ensure sufficient state of charge for participation, leaving time where a distributed battery could otherwise provide different services by segmenting participation temporally. To provide continuous or unexpected services, a battery operator may use state of charge management to reserve some percentage of the battery and segment participation by capacity. Macroeconomic trends, load patterns, generation profiles, and grid configurations drive variation in value and the subsequent implications for utility offerings and how a customer might participate. As distributed battery adoption increases, both regulators and utilities will need to ensure no adverse grid impacts and encourage provision of societal value beyond the customer domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Marshall Space Flight Center Test Capabilities

The Test Laboratory at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has over 50 facilities across 400+ acres inside a secure, fenced facility. The entire Center is located inside the boundaries of Redstone Arsenal, a 40,000 acre military reservation. About 150 Government and 250 contractor personnel operate facilities capable of all types of propulsion and structural testing, from small components to engine systems and structural strength, structural dynamic and environmental testing. We have tremendous engineering expertise in research, evaluation, analysis, design and development, and test of space transportation systems, subsystems, and components.

Hamilton, Jeffrey T.↗

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HAT m:N Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA)

This Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) study was designed to understand the capability of the m:N Tactical Operator (TO) interfaces developed by the Human-Autonomy Teaming Laboratory at NASA Ames to support operators responsible for simplified pilot operations of 100 independently operated small UAS (sUAS) in a constrained geographic area. The m:N sUAS TO interface includes a central Tactical Situation Display (TSD) digital map with moving icons reflecting the sUAS location and planned flight route. The interface also has two side panels. The left panel includes a tabular list of UAS assets and mission tasking, a list of recently viewed assets, and a list of events and alerts. The right panel includes a tabular list of UAS assets and their associated telemetry, text-based chat communication window, and a tabbed checklist window. This CTA was adapted from the incident-based applied cognitive task analysis (Militello & Hutton, 1998) and included demographics questions, scenario-based simulations, a task diagram and knowledge audit methods. In addition to examining the support provided by this m:N sUAS TO interface, this CTA study, conducted with aviation subject matter experts in analogous roles to the future tactical operator, was designed to illuminate and project likely cognitive requirements of the tactical operator. Interviewees participated in two scenario-based simulations using the m:N sUAS TO interfaces. In the first simulation, the interviewees supervised 12 sUAS operating in downtown San Diego, California transiting to and from a central sUAS Hive, restaurant locations, and customer drop off locations. Interviewees were asked to react to a UAS Volume Reservation (UVR) event with a two-phase impact on food delivery operations. In the second scenario, the interviewees supervised 100 sUAS operating in the same airspace and with the same mission. Interviewees used the interfaces to recognize and react to two sUAS air vehicle problems. After each scenario, we asked the interviewees a semi-structured list of questions to elicit their reflections about using the interfaces. Interviewees were confident in their ability to respond to two off-nominal situations in each simulation. Interviewees felt that, given high levels of automation on the sUAS, they would be able to manage the events without requiring additional support or handing off the sUAS to a colleague or supervisor in both the n=12 or n=100 sUAS settings. In the n=12 sUAS condition, interviewees used the center map to understand the asset location and progress along with mission tasking. An additional display window, Asset Telemetry, helped interviewees understand battery state and sUAS altitude. When the number of sUAS increased, interviewees altered their behavior. Rather than maintaining awareness of individual assets, interviewees appeared to become more reactive, managing exceptions. Interviewees reported that they spent less time looking at the nominal aircraft, and focused their attention primarily on the off-nominal aircraft. In addition, in the second simulation with n=100 sUAS, interviewees reported that they relied more on the side panels (Mission Timeline and Asset Telemetry) to gather information.

human-autonomy teaming↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Control of Wind Turbines for Fast Frequency Response

In order to fulfill vital auxiliary grid services, such as load regulation, spin and non-spin reserve provision, and frequency support during emergencies, there is often a requirement for certain wind farms to operate in de-loaded modes. Leveraging the swift response capabilities of wind farms, this study demonstrates that reserving power in de-loaded modes can significantly enhance power grid stability and reliability during system contingencies. Controlling wind farms optimally for frequency support is intricate due to the nonlinearity of models and controllers and the complexity of wind farm interactions with power systems. Here, to address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel approach that integrates wind turbines into reinforcement learning-based solutions for frequency response. This innovative methodology utilizes the state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithm known as the surrogate-gradient-based evolutionary strategy. The proposed learning-based algorithm provides continuous control of wind farm output to rapidly stabilize system frequency and prevent unnecessary trips of under-frequency load shedding relays. To facilitate efficient training, parallel computing techniques are employed. The proposed methodology is evaluated on a modified IEEE-39 bus system, and simulation results reveal its efficacy in reliably supporting power system frequency and preventing the need for unnecessary load shedding.

Gao, Wei [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argon↗

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Experiment design and operations

The objectives, design, and field operations of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) are described. The simultaneous acquisition of satellite, atmosphere, and surface data, and the understanding of the processes governing surface energy and mass exchange and how these are manifested in satellite-resolution radiometric data are identified as the specific objectives of the field-phase experiment. The central issues concerning the design of the field experiment are considered: the size of the site, the duration of the experiment, and the location of the site; it is noted that the Konza Prairie National Reserve was selected as the focus of the study. Field operations in 1987 and 1989 are discussed, and it is pointed out that a data set is available now from a single combined repository to all FIFE investigators, and that scientists can test models and algorithms on scales consistent with satellite observations and with enough supporting data on finer scales.

Sellers, P. J.↗