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At least 127 records · Page 7

Spacecraft Mission Design for the Mitigation of the 2017 PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Threat

This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ pd/cs/pdc17/. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or lowthrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft/asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth/spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection

Barbee, Brent W.↗

Spacecraft Mission Design for the Mitigation of the 2017 PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Threat

This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https:cneos.jpl.nasa.govpdcspdc17. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or low-thrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft, asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth-spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection.

Barbee, Brent W.↗

Studies of Short Time Response Options for Potentially Hazardous Objects: Current and Forthcoming Results

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory(LANL), and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) are collaborating on Planetary Defense Research. The research program is organized around three case studies: 1. Deflection of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36)[OSIRIS-REx mission target], 2. Deflection of the secondary member of the PHA 65803 Didymos (1996 GT) [DART mission target], 3. Deflection of a scaled-down version of the comet 67PChuryumov-Gerasimenko [Rosetta mission target]. NASAGSFC is providing astrodynamics and spacecraft mission design expertise, while NNSA, DOE, LLNL, LANL and SNL are providing expertise in modeling the effects of kinetic impactor spacecraft and nuclear explosive devices on the target objects.

Mission Design↗

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗

Deflection and Fragmentation of Near-Earth Asteroids

Collisions by near-earth asteroids or the nuclei of comets pose varying levels of threat to man. A relatively small object, approximately 100 m diameter, which might be found on an impact trajectory with a populated region of the Earth, could potentially be diverted with a velocity of approximately1 cm/sec from an Earth impacting trajectory by impact (at 12 km/sec) by a rocket launched, 10^2 to 10^3 Kg impactor. For larger bodies, the use of kinetic energy impactors appear impractical because of the larger mass requirement. For any size object, nuclear explosions appear to be more efficient, using either the prompt blow-off from neutron radiation, the impulse from ejecta of a near-surface explosion for deflection, or, least efficiently, as a fragmenting charge.

Harris, Alan W.↗

Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts

Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized

ATAP↗

Explosive Joining for Nuclear-Reactor Repair

In explosive joining technique, adapter flange from fuel channel machined to incorporate a V-notch interface. Ribbon explosive, 1/2 inch (1.3 cm) in width, drives V-notched wall of adapter into bellows assembly, producing atomic-level metallurgical bond. Ribbon charge yields joint with double parent metal strength.

Bement, L. J.↗

Characterizing IHE Response to Multiple Shock Loading

The response of high explosives to shock loading is traditionally measured with a steady loading pressure. In many accident scenarios involving fragment impact, however, a loading duration that is shorter than the build up to detonation may occur. Fragments passing through multiple materials before reaching a high explosive charge may produce loading that is comprised of more than one shock wave. Additionally, the build up to detonation in high explosive corner turning loads the explosive a short duration pressure pulse, since rarefactions can often rapidly overtake the reactive wave. For these reasons, we have studied the response of the insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials PBX 9502 and LX-17 to complex loadings of varied intensity and duration. We refer to a single loading of limited duration as a “thin pulse”, whereas more complex scenarios were studied with an impactor that produces a double shock in the explosive. The following report presents experimental data and analyses of thin pulse shock initiation and double shock experiments designed to guide development of models of Insensitive High Explosives (IHEs) under controlled one-dimensional conditions relevant to accident scenarios and corner turning. Thin pulse shock initiation data on PBX 9502 and LX-17 were obtained under varied pulse duration, pressed density, and temperature conditions in order to probe various parameters essential for the development of a physics-based Cheetah reactive flow hotspot model. In situ pressure gauges provide insight into the degree of reaction in the explosive that are not obtainable with optical PDV measurements or distance measurements such as run to detonation. Double shock data was obtained to inform a Composition Aware Cheetah model which can be applied to any TATB-based IHEs. This model supports efforts to find a new IHE formulation and potentially incorporate new binders into IHE formulations. Simulations of each experiment are included to demonstrate the utility of these focused experiments to developing models of HE behavior. One-dimensional gas gun experiments are essential for characterizing shocked HE behavior and informing HE models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Temporal Explosion Source Processes of Declared Nuclear Tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

In this work we highlight a preliminary temporal source analysis of the six declared Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear tests. We use regional seismic data to estimate relative source time functions (RSTFs) via iterative time-domain deconvolution (Ammon, 2006; Pippin, 2022) of vertical-component ground motions recorded within 2000 km of the source region. Since RSTFs are ideally independent of site and propagation effects, their amplitude spectrum is equivalent to the source spectral ratio, but they also retain phase information. We compare observed RSTFs (in the time and frequency domains) with synthetic RSTFs derived from the Mueller & Murphy (1971) explosion source model. The resolution of these time functions varies, however, we generally obtain high-quality results within the limitations of the recording broadband instrumentation. The results indicate that this method effectively preserves source time-history information that can be used for temporal analysis of remote nuclear explosions. This preliminary analysis is intended to assess the viability of using time-domain deconvolution methods for extracting temporal source information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Automated nuclear cloud feature extraction from film

Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives incidents require rapid detection and characterization for appropriate response. For a nuclear detonation, visible-light cameras may be used to locate the cloud and characterize fallout deposition when coupled with numerical models. Films from the United States’ nuclear testing era compose the only sizeable collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into characteristics of flows involving scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models for nuclear fallout transport, either as part of emergency response or forensic activities. In this work, we implement modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to identify and track the cloud automatically and subsequently determine the time dependence of some of its features. We trained a ResNet-18 image classifier on hundreds of images to categorize nuclear cloud morphology. Each category or cloud regime is determined by early cloud evolution and is associated to constitutive properties of the flow, such as distribution of vorticity. Next, we identified keypoint features using the KAZE algorithm and tracked these keypoints in the images, allowing us to determine the dimensions and velocities of the cloud across film frames. These measurements converted to real-world units provide valuable experimental data that can be used in the development and validation of nuclear cloud models. We compared the results of this method against manual cloud rise measurements from two different films. In one, our automated method accelerated the feature extraction process without sacrificing measurement accuracy.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗

Radiation Accidents and Malicious Events – Scenarios and Scope of the Work of ICRP Task Group 120

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 120 (TG120) is developing ICRP recommendations for radiological protection for a wide range of radiation accidents and malicious events, complementing those given in ICRP Publication 146 (2020) for large nuclear accidents. The scope includes accidents involving criticalities, operating faults, and fires and explosions in nuclear facilities, inadvertent damage to sealed radiation sources, as well as malicious events, such as sabotage of nuclear facilities or materials, use of radiological dispersal devices, the contamination of food and drinking water supplies, and the deployment of nuclear weapons. A template has been designed to collate relevant information on a wide range of case studies and hypothetical malicious scenarios to ensure that the recommendations developed are broadly applicable and comprehensive. For all scenarios, a graded approach to protection is being taken, accepting that specific guidance may be required for some distinctive aspects, for example, protection during times of armed conflict. This paper provides an overview of the scenarios and scope of the work of TG120, including some of the radiological and non-radiological impacts of radiation emergencies, along the response and recovery timeline.

ICRP↗

Application of high explosion cratering data to planetary problems

The present paper deals with the conditions of explosion or nuclear cratering required to simulate impact crater formation. Some planetary problems associated with three different aspects of crater formation are discussed, and solutions based on high-explosion data are proposed. Structures of impact craters and some selected explosion craters formed in layered media are examined and are related to the structure of lunar basins. The mode of ejection of material from impact craters is identified using explosion analogs. The ejection mode is shown to have important implications for the origin of material in crater and basin deposits. Equally important are the populations of secondary craters on lunar and planetary surfaces.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

Near Earth Object (NEO) Mitigation Options Using Exploration Technologies

This presentation considers the use of new launch vehicles in defense against near-Earth objects, building upon expertise in launch vehicle and spacecraft design, astronomy and planetary science and missile defense. This work also seeks to demonstrate the synergy needed between architectures for human/robotic exploration initiatives and planetary defense. Three different mitigation operations were baselined for this study--nuclear standoff explosion, kinetic interceptor, and solar collector--however, these are not the only viable options. The design and predicted performance of each of these methods is discussed and compared. It is determined that the nuclear interceptor option can deflect NEOs of smaller size (100-500 m) with 2 years or more time before impact, and larger NEOs with 5 or more years warning; kinetic interceptors may be effective for deflection of asteroids up to 300-400 m but require 8-10 years warning time; and, solar collectors may be able to deflect NEOs up to 1 km if issues pertaining to long operation can be overcome. Ares I and Ares V vehicles show sufficient performance to enable the development of a near-term categorization and mitigation architecture.

Adams, Robert B.↗

Impacts of Multidimensional Progenitor Perturbations on Core-collapse Supernova Explosions

Numerical studies of core-collapse supernovae have demonstrated the importance of nonradial motions in precollapse progenitors on the explosion outcome. We use the Chimera neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code running seven two-dimensional simulations of 15 M⊙ progenitors with different progenitor structures introduced by different one- and two-dimensional precollapse stellar evolution environments to examine the impacts of stellar structure and nonspherical motion in the precollapse progenitor on the development of explosions. We compare the explosion evolution of these models in terms of shock dynamics, diagnostic energy, neutrino heating, accretion, explosion geometry, nuclear abundances, and turbulent convection. We also analyze how stochastic variation impacts our simulations. Contrary to results reported in prior studies examining the impacts of multidimensional progenitors, we observe similar shock revival times and explosion development in our simulations despite differences in initial compositions and structures. We find no discernible impact from the accretion of nonradial perturbations from a multi-D progenitor onto the stalled shock in the revival and strength of explosion, as fully developed neutrino-driven convection behind the stalled shock is similar for all our models. For models with physically sourced noise in the iron core, a strong oscillation of the shock occurs after bounce and deflects infall laterally, and accelerates the saturation of the lateral turbulent kinetic energy. An examination of model stochasticity shows that any prior expected impacts on explosive outcome due to convection-related perturbations lie below the detectable threshold of numerical variation.

Chen, Chien-Hui [North Carolina State University]↗