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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from Neutrinos and Antineutrinos with Machine Learning

NOvA is a two detector, long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment measuring the oscillations of muon neutrinos from the \numi neutrino beam over a baseline of \SI{810}{km}. The experiment uses four oscillation channels, $\numu \rightarrow \numu$, $\numubar \rightarrow \numubar$, $\numu \rightarrow \nue$, and $\numubar \rightarrow \nuebar$, with a peak neutrino energy of \SI{1.8}{GeV}. This dissertation describes the analysis of these channels using a dataset of $13.6\times10^{20}$ protons on target neutrino beam mode and $12.5\times10^{20}$ protons on target antineutrino beam mode. The analysis makes use of improvements in the treatment of systematic uncertainties and machine learning techniques to reconstruct neutrino interactions. A technique for decorrelating systematic errors using principle component analysis was utilized to reduce and optimize neutrino cross section and beam related uncertainties. The improved machine learning algorithms make use of convolutional ne ural net works for neutrino event classification, particle classification, and instance segmentation. The selection of neutrino signal events utilizing the neutrino event classifier shows an efficiency of 63\% for the selection of electron neutrinos in neutrino beam mode and 75\% for electron antineutrinos in antineutrino beam mode. Using this algorithm, 82 appearing electron neutrino candidates and 33 appearing electron antineutrino candidates were observed with expected backgrounds of 26.8 and 14.0 respectively. In addition, 211 surviving muon neutrino candidates and 105 muon antineutrino candidates were identified with a purity of more than 96\% using the same neutrino event classifier. Fitting these data to the three flavor neutrino oscillation model, using constraints on \thetaonetwo, \thetaonethree, and \dmsqonetwo from solar and reactor neutrino experiments, the oscillation parameters are measured to be $\sintwothree = 0.57^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, $\dmsqthreetwo = \SI[parse-numbers= false]{+ 2.41\pm0.07 \times 10^{-3}}{eV^2}$, and $\dcp=0.82^{+0.27}_{-0.87}\pi$ with a preference for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. Leading systematic uncertainties for these measurements come from detector calibration and neutrino interaction models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fe Kα XANES, Fe Kβ HERFD XANES and EPMA flank method determinations of the oxidation state of Fe in garnet

The ferric to total iron ratios (Fe 3+ /ΣFe) of garnets can be paired with thermodynamic mineral activity models to quantify the oxygen fugacity of garnet-bearing rocks. However, techniques with a high analytical and spatial resolution are necessary to distinguish differences in garnet Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios at the percent level and to accurately measure garnets that are zoned or contain inclusions. We acquired conventional Fe Kα and high-resolution energy fluorescence detection (HERFD) Fe Kβ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra and electron microprobe flank method analyses on a suite of 27 peridotitic and eclogitic garnets with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios previously determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy to evaluate the precision of each technique. We examined variations in the energy and intensity of three XANES spectral features as a function of Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios: 1) the intensity ratio of two-post edge features (I-ratio; Fe Kα only); 2) the energy of the Fe edge at 90% normalized intensity (E 0.9 ; Fe Kα only) and 3) the pre-edge centroid energy (Fe Kα and HERFD Fe Kβ). In accordance with previous work, we find the energies of garnet pre-edge centroids are relatively insensitive to Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios. The I-ratios of peridotitic and eclogitic garnets are offset from each other at low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (≤0.13); I-ratio garnet XANES calibrations are composition-specific. The E 0.9 feature is independent of garnet major element composition in spectra that have been corrected for the effects of self-absorption. We produce two Fe Kα garnet XANES calibrations based on variations in the E0.9 feature; one calibration with all garnet reference materials included (Fe 3+ /ΣFe up to 1.0; “all garnet calibration”) and another calibration specific to garnets with low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (“low ferric calibration”). Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios calculated from the mean of up to 25 flank method measurements on eight garnet reference materials fall within 4% absolute of a one-to-one correlation with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios measured by Mössbauer. The standard error of the mean Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio calculated from flank method approaches the Mössbauer-determined Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio within estimated error (3%) after three analyses. Flank method precision is enhanced at higher beam current; however, the precision of the flank method does not approach the precision of XANES under any microprobe analytical condition tested here. Garnet reference materials detailed here are available by request to the Smithsonian Institution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping snow depth and volume at the alpine watershed scale from aerial imagery using Structure from Motion

Time series mapping of snow volume in the mountains at global scales and at resolutions needed for water resource management is an unsolved challenge to date. Snow depth mapping by differencing surface elevations from airborne lidar is a mature measurement approach filling the observation gap operationally in a few regions, primarily in mountain headwaters in the Western United States. The same concept for snow depth retrieval from stereo- or multi-view photogrammetry has been demonstrated, but these previous studies had limited ability to determine the uncertainties of photogrammetric snow depth at the basin scale. For example, assessments used non-coincident or discrete points for reference, masked out vegetation, or compared a subset of the fully snow-covered study domain. Here, using a unique data set with simultaneously collected airborne data, we compare snow depth mapped from multi-view Structure from Motion photogrammetry to that mapped by lidar at multiple resolutions over an entire mountain basin (300 km 2 ). After excluding reconstruction errors (negative depths), SfM had lower snow-covered area (~27%) and snow volume (~16%) compared to lidar. The reconstruction errors were primarily in areas with vegetation, shallow snow (< 1 m), and steep slopes (> 60°C). Across the overlapping snow extent, snow depths compared well to lidar with similar mean values (< 0.03 m difference) and snow volume (± 5%) for output resolutions of 3 m and 50 m, and with a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.19 m. Our results indicate that photogrammetry from aerial images can be applied in the mountains but would perform best for deeper snowpacks above tree line.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for: Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources

Data package for manuscript "Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources" by Emily G. Wright, Ivey Wang, Yihang Fang, Elaine D. Flynn, and Jeffrey G. Catalano. This dataset contains adsorption results from experiments designed to investigate the effect of chloride on Pd(II) adsorption to goethite and Pt(II) adsorption to hematite and goethite, including lab experiments, X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, and models of retention within a laterite. See the associated manuscript for full methods information. The file "Wright2025_PtAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pt concentration (uM), final aqueous Pt and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pt and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), target aqueous nitrate (mM), final pH, and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, S20, and S22 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_PdAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pd concentration (uM), final aqueous Pd and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pd and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, and S20 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" contains the mineral identity and BET specific surface area (m2/g) for every mineral batch synthesized and used in experiments. The annealing time used is listed for hydrothermally annealed goethite. These data appear in Table S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XRD_data.csv" contains the XRD patterns for every mineral batch synthesized as the counts as a function of two theta (in degrees). See "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" for more details on specific mineral batches. These data appear in Figure S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright 2025_ZetaPotential_data.csv" contains the measured zeta potentials for samples of goethite (batch G2) at pH 4 the presence of varying amounts of sodium chloride. These data appear in Table S3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" contains the specific mineral batch, measured final aqueous Pd or Pt (uM), measured final aqueous chloride (mM), and estimated adsorbed Pd or Pt (umol/m2) of all XAFS samples. These data appear in Tables S4, S7, S8, and S10 in the associated manuscript. The files "Wright2025_PdXAFS_data.csv" and "Wright2025_PtXAFS_data.csv" contain the normalized spectra of Pd and Pt, respectively, adsorbed to minerals at varying chloride concentrations. See "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" for a guide to sample names. Note that "05" in a sample name is equivalent to "0.5". These data appear in Figures 2, S6, S7, S8, S12, S13, and S14 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_LateriteProfileProfileModelParameters_data.csv" include the ratio of hematite to hematite and goethite in two synthetic, modeled profiles, as well as the modeled surface areas of goethite and hematite as a function of relative depth within the modeled weathering zone. These data were used, in conjunction with equations presented in the paper, to calculate the theoretical concentrations of Pd and Pt (and the resulting Pt/Pd ratio) within the profiles. These data appear in Figure 3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_Imagery_data.zip" is a zipped folder containing the TEM and STEM images appear in Figures S18 and S19. Individual files are labeled as either STEM (Fig. S18) or TEM (Fig. S19) with a letter representing the part of the multipart figure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Disorder in Urban Traffic Patterns: A Low Rank Analysis

This article proposes several advances to sparse nonnegative matrix factorization (SNMF) as a way to identify large-scale patterns in urban traffic data. The input to our model is traffic counts organized by time and location. Nonnegative matrix factorization additively decomposes this information, organized as a matrix, into a linear sum of temporal signatures. Penalty terms encourage this factorization to concentrate on only a few temporal signatures, with weights which are not too large. Our interest here is to quantify and compare the regularity of traffic behavior, particularly across different broad temporal windows. In addition to the rank and error, we adapt a measure introduced by Hoyer to quantify sparsity in the representation. Combining these, we construct several curves which quantify error as a function of rank (the number of possible signatures) and sparsity; as rank goes up and sparsity goes down, the approximation can be better and the error should decreases. Plots of several such curves corresponding to different time windows leads to a way to compare disorder/order at different time scalewindows. In this paper, we apply our algorithms and procedures to study a taxi traffic dataset from New York City. In this dataset, we find weekly periodicity in the signatures, which allows us an extra framework for identifying outliers as significant deviations from weekly medians. We then apply our seasonal disorder analysis to the New York City traffic data and seasonal (spring, summer, winter, fall) time windows. We do find seasonal differences in traffic order.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Sheaf Theoretical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Heterogeneous Geolocation Information

Integration of multiple, heterogeneous sensors is a challenging problem across a range of applications. Prominent among these are multi-target tracking, where one must combine observations from different sensor types in a meaningful and efficient way to track multiple targets. Because different sensors have differing error models, we seek a theoretically justified quantification of the agreement among ensembles of sensors, both overall for a sensor collection, and also at a fine-grained level specifying pairwise and multi-way interactions among sensors. We demonstrate that the theory of mathematical sheaves provides a unified answer to this need, supporting both quantitative and qualitative data. Furthermore, the theory provides algorithms to globalize data across the network of deployed sensors, and to diagnose issues when the data do not globalize cleanly. We demonstrate and illustrate the utility of sheaf-based tracking models based on experimental data of a wild population of black bears in Asheville, North Carolina. A measurement model involving four sensors deployed among the bears and the team of scientists charged with tracking their location is deployed. This provides a sheaf-based integration model which is small enough to fully interpret, but of sufficient complexity to demonstrate the sheaf’s ability to recover a holistic picture of the locations and behaviors of both individual bears and the bear-human tracking system. A statistical approach was developed in parallel for comparison, a dynamic linear model which was estimated using a Kalman filter. This approach also recovered bear and human locations and sensor accuracies. When the observations are normalized into a common coordinate system, the structure of the dynamic linear observation model recapitulates the structure of the sheaf model, demonstrating the canonicity of the sheaf-based approach. However, when the observations are not so normalized, the sheaf model still remains valid.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Second ARM Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor Users’ Meeting Report

The aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) was developed to adapt the technology of the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) to routine, long-term, standalone monitoring. The calculation of particulate mass concentration from ACSM data requires the measurement of the response of the instrument to aerosol of specific size and composition as well as assumptions about the instrument response based on laboratory measurements and field experience acquired over more than two decades of operation of AMS and a decade of operation of the ACSM. Three parameters in the concentration calculations that are particularly important are the NO3 response factor (RFNO3), relative ionization efficiency (RIE), and the collection efficiency (CE). The values of RFNO3 and RIEs are determined from calibration, however the jump calibration method previously used in calibration can result in errors in the RIE for sulfate. This has been corrected by implementing a continuous calibration method. The default collection efficiency is 0.5. This has been shown to result in mass loadings that do not agree with mass determinations from other instruments because of effects of composition on the vaporization of the particles. The previous work of investigators addressing this issue is discussed. After preliminary work on ACSM and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) data from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory collected in late 2016 and 2017 produced a parameterization of composition dependent collection efficiency very different from the results of previous studies, SMPS data were examined and we determined that there was significant mass that the instrument did not capture because the particles with diameters larger than 465 nm are not counted by this instrument. Data for the ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), SMPS, and ACSM are available for nearly all of 2019. The data from UHSAS and SMPS collected in 2019 were compared. We found that the UHSAS data has particle counts and total volumes significantly less than measured by the condensation particle counter (CPC) and SMPS. The SMPS data were extended by fitting the average volume distribution with a log normal curve and using this relationship to estimate a mass value for the SMPS over extended diameter range. The extended SMPS mass values result in a CDCE parameterization that is in better agreement with the results of other investigators, but is still different from other formulations. The working group recommends that the ACSM data be processed with a collective efficiency (CE)=1, that this be documented clearly in the metadata, and the use of the default CE of 0.5 or a formulation of composition-dependent collection efficiencies (CDCE) chosen by the user should be implemented based on the ammonium nitrate mass fraction. This is clearly necessary for the wintertime SGP ACSM data because of the high nitrate concentrations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conversion of METL Diagnostic Flowmeters to Permanent Magnet Based Electromagnetic Flowmeters

The Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) uses three flowmeters to monitor sodium circulation through the main loop, the Cold Trap leg, and the Plugging Meter leg. When constructed, the Cold Trap flowmeter (CTFM) and Plugging Meter flowmeter (PMFM) were equipped with permanent magnets and Hall Sensors. By October of 2019, during normal operations, both the CTFM and PMFM failed, producing either erroneous or zero signals. Repairs to the flowmeters were attempted in January of 2020 but failed to resolve the issues. Therefore, starting in March of 2021, a plan was developed to convert the installed flowmeters to more robust permanent magnet based electromagnetic flowmeters (EMFMs). The Cold Trap EMFM (CT EMFM) and Plugging Meter EMFM (PM EMFM) were fully installed by August of 2021. Initial testing and commissioning were completed in November of 2021. Finally, the first calibration runs were finished in March of 2022. This report discusses the design, conversion, and calibration of the as-built CTFM and PMFM to robust permanent magnet based EMFMs. During the design phase, theoretical models were used to estimate the signal output and required magnet sizes. Then, the CTFM and PMFM were disassembled and converted to EMFMs. After commissioning, the CT EMFM and PM EMFM were calibrated using a ‘Time Transfer Procedure’ carried out with METL Expansion Vessels and Test Vessel Two. The accuracy of the calibration was estimated through an uncertainty analysis. Finally, the report describes some lessons learned for future flowmeter conversions and follow-up work. In total, both METL EMFM’s met the desired performance targets. Testing data showed that the METL EMFMs provide a output signal of roughly 2 mV at 1 GPM and 250 °C. During calibration, flowrates between 0.7 GPM and 2.4 GPM were achieved. In this flow range, calibration coefficients of 0.485 and 0.935 were measured as with errors ranging from 15-5% and 16-5% for the CT EMFM and PM EMFM, respectively. Above 1.5 GPM, the error was assumed to be about 5% for both METL EMFMs. Several points will be considered for future follow-up work on the METL EMFM’s. First, the signal noise issues in the PM EMFM will be addressed. It is likely the source of the noise is due to some stray EMF from a heater. Secondly, the NdFeB magnets will be replaced with a grade that has a Curie temperature above 80 °C. For example, a few grades of NeFeB magnets have Curie temperatures which exceed 150 °C and some SmCo magnets have Curie temperatures as high as 500 °C. Third, more calibration runs will be completed in the range of 0.5-2.5 GPM. This will further improve the accuracy of the calibration coefficient. Fourth, calibration runs will be completed up to 5 GPM. This requires a larger pressure relief valve to be installed on the Expansion Vessel and Test Vessel 2, as well as a revised calibration procedure. Lastly, calibration runs will be completed to account for cold spots in the system, which reduced the inlet temperature of the METL EMFMs. Overall, these points will improve the calibration coefficients derived in this work and also improve the performance of the METL EMFMs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complete quantification of parametric uncertainties in ( d , p ) transfer reactions

Deuteron-induced transfer reactions are a popular probe in nuclear structure and nuclear astro physics studies. The interpretation of these transfer measurements relies on reaction theory that takes as input effective interactions between the nucleons and the target nucleus. Previous work quantified the uncertainty associated with the optical potentials between the nucleons and the target. In this study, we extend that work by also including the parameters of the mean field associated with the overlap function of the final bound state, thus obtaining the full parametric uncertainty on transfer observables. We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to obtain parameter posterior distributions. We use elastic-scattering cross sections to constrain the optical potential parameters and use the asymptotic normalization coefficient of the final state to constrain the bound state interaction. We then propagate these posteriors to the transfer angular distributions and obtain confidence intervals for this observable. We study (d,p) reactions on 14 C, 16 O, and 48 Ca at energies in the range $E$ $d$ = 7 - 24 MeV. Our results show a strong reduction in uncertainty by using the asymptotic normalization coefficient as a constraint, particularly for those reactions most sensitive to ambiguities in the mean field. For those reactions, the importance of constraining the bound state interaction is equal to that of constraining the optical potentials. Furthermore, the case of 14 C is an outlier because the cross section is less sensitive to the nuclear interior. When minimal constraints are used on the parameters of the nucleon-target interaction, the 1σ uncertainties on the differential cross sections are large (~ 500-100%). However, if elastic-scattering data and the asymptotic normalization coefficient are used in the analysis, with an error of 10% (5%), this uncertainty reduces to ~ 30% (~ 15%).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of carbon flowing in and out of agroecosystems and the changes in carbon stocks of soil and living biomass during the same period. Soil carbon credit is the additional change in soil carbon stock under certain farming practices compared with the business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is critical to assessing climate change mitigation potential in agroecosystems. The calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is sensitive to local soil and climatic conditions, especially initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, which is determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) and bulk density (Bulk_Density). SOC stock data are either from soil sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, SOC stock data are a key model input for quantifying cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. However, various types and degrees of uncertainties exist in SOC stock datasets, which propagate to the quantification of SOC stock change. In particular, a large discrepancy is found in two widely used SOC stock datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) and Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) — in the U.S. Midwest, with a relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) of 48.0% for 0–30 cm SOC stock between the two datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty in SOC stocks affects the calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. To address this question, we used a well-validated process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of SOC stock uncertainty on carbon budget and soil carbon credit calculation in the U.S. Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal the following findings: (1) A sizable discrepancy exists in simulated cropland carbon budget between using gSSURGO and using RaCA for their SOC% and Bulk_Density as model inputs, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of only 0.4 for simulated change of SOC stock (ΔSOC) using these two different soil datasets. (2) Simulated cropland carbon budget components were more sensitive to initial SOC% than to Bulk_Density. For example, the upper and lower quartiles of multi-year averaged ΔSOC were –29.8 and 4.8 gC/m 2 /year for the selected counties respectively, with an uncertainty of 13.7 and 0.7 gC/m 2 /year induced by uncertainties in initial SOC% and Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both simulated ΔSOC and its uncertainty were negatively correlated with initial SOC%, whereas ΔSOC was negatively correlated with air temperature, and ΔSOC uncertainty was positively correlated with air temperature. (4) The uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits was much smaller compared with the uncertainty of calculated absolute carbon budgets assuming the same SOC stock uncertainty level in the inputs. Specifically, in our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no cover crop, the uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits induced by initial SOC% uncertainty was less than 4% (relative to the quantified value of the soil carbon credits) for 90% of the cases. Our analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement of SOC% as inputs is needed for the calculation of cropland carbon budgets; however, soil carbon credit quantification is much less sensitive to the initial SOC% inputs, and the current publicly available soil datasets (e.g., gSSURGO) are largely suitable for the calculation of soil

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass measurement of 27 P to constrain type-I x-ray burst models and validate the isobaric multiplet mass equation for the $A = 27, T = \frac{3}{2}$ isospin quartet

Background: Light curves are the primary observable of type-I x-ray bursts. Computational x-ray burst models must match simulations to observed light curves. Most of the error in simulated curves comes from uncertainties in rp process reaction rates, which can be reduced via precision mass measurements of neutron-deficient isotopes in the rp process path. Purpose: Perform a precise atomic mass measurement of 27 P. Use this new measurement to calculate rp process reaction rates and input these rates into an x-ray burst model to reduce simulated light curve uncertainty. Use the mass measurement of 27 P to validate the isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME) for the A = 27 T = 3/2 isospin quartet which 27 P belongs to. Method: High-precision Penning trap mass spectrometry utilizing the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance technique was used to determine the atomic mass of 27 P. The MESA code (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) was then used to simulate x-ray bursts using a one-dimensional multizone model to produce updated light curves. Results: The mass excess of 27 P was measured to be –670.7(6) keV, a 14-fold precision increase over the mass reported in the 2020 Atomic Mass Evaluation (AME2020). The 26 Si(p, $γ$) 27 P– 27 P($γ$, p) 26 Si rate equilibrium has been determined to a higher precision based on the precision mass measurement of 27 P. x-ray burst light curves were produced with the MESA code using the new reaction rates. Changes in the mass of 27 P seem to have minimal effect on light curves, even in burster systems tailored to maximize impact. Conclusion: The mass of 27 P does not play a significant role in x-ray burst light curves. It is important to understand that more advanced models do not just provide more precise results, but often qualitatively different ones. This result brings us a step closer to being able to extract stellar parameters from individual x-ray burst observations. In addition, the IMME has been validated for the A = 27, T = 3/2 quartet. The normal quadratic form of the IMME using the latest data yields a reduced $χ$ 2 of 2.9. Finally, the cubic term required to generate an exact fit to the latest data matches theoretical attempts to predict this term.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining geometric-optical and spectral invariants theories for modeling canopy fluorescence anisotropy

The spectral invariants theory ( p -theory) has received much attention in the field of quantitative remote sensing over the past few decades and has been adopted for modeling of canopy solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). However, the spectral invariant properties (SIP) in simple analytical formulae have not been applied for modeling canopy fluorescence anisotropy primarily because they are parameterized in terms of leaf total scattering, which precludes the differentiation between forward and backward leaf SIF emissions. In this study, we have developed the canopy-SIP SIF model by combining geometric-optical (GO) theory to account for asymmetric leaf SIF forward and backward emissions at the first-order scattering and by modeling multiple scattering based on the p-theory, thus avoiding the dependence on radiative transfer models. The applicability of the model simulations especially over 3D heterogeneous canopies was improved by incorporating canopy structure through multi-angular clumping index, and by modeling single scattering from the four components of the scene in view according to the GO approach. The results show good consistency with both the state-of-the-art SIF models and multi-angular field SIF observations over grass and chickpea canopies. Further, the coefficient of determination (R²) between the simulated SIF and field measurements was 0.75 (red) and 0.74 (far-red) for chickpea, and 0.65 (both red and far-red) for grass. The average relative error was approximately 3% for 1D homogeneous scenes when comparing the canopy-SIP SIF model simulations to the SCOPE model simulations, and around 4% for the 3D heterogeneous scene when comparing to the LESS model simulations. The results indicate that the proposed approach for separating asymmetric leaf SIF emissions is a robust way to keep a balance between satisfactory simulation accuracy and efficiency. Model simulations suggest that neglecting the leaf SIF asymmetry can lead to an underestimation of canopy red SIF by 6.3% to 42.6% for various leaf biochemical and canopy structural parameters. This study presents a simple but efficient analytical approach for canopy fluorescence modeling, with potential for large-scale canopy fluorescence simulations.

3D heterogeneous structure↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGR 5/6/7 Data Qualification Report for ATR Cycles 162B through 168A

This report provides the qualification status of experimental data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation. AGR-5/6/7 was conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) low-enriched fuel for use in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiments are to: (i) irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification, (ii) establish operating margins for the fuel beyond normal operating conditions, and (iii) provide irradiated-fuel performance data and irradiated-fuel samples for post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing. The test train contains five separate capsules that were independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contains multiple 12.51-mm-long compacts filled with low enriched uranium carbide/oxide (UCO) TRISO fuel particles. The primary objective of the AGR-5/6 test (Capsules 1, 2, 4, and 5) is to verify successful performance of the reference-design fuel under normal operating conditions. The AGR-7 test (Capsule 3) was designed to explore fuel performance at higher temperatures to demonstrate the capability of the fuel to withstand conditions beyond normal operating conditions in support of plant design and licensing. AGR 5/6/7 will also provide irradiated-fuel performance data on fission-gas release from failed particles during irradiation. The AGR-5/6/7 capsules were irradiated in the ATR northeast flux trap location. The experiment began on February 16, 2018 and ended on July 22, 2020, spanning nine ATR cycles over two and a half years. Thus, the AGR-5/6/7 fuel compacts were irradiated for a total of 360.9 effective full power days. The AGR 5/6/7 experiment was able to remain in the reactor core during all three Powered Axial Locator Mechanism (PALM) cycles (163A, 165A, and 167A) without overheating its fuel compacts. This report includes irradiation monitoring data from nine ATR Cycles: 162B, 163A, 164A, 164B, 165A, 166A, 166B, 167A, and 168A, as stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). During irradiation, data records consisted of instantaneous measurements recorded every minute and provided by text files automatically every 2 hours. The AGR 5/6/7 data streams addressed in this report include thermocouple (TC) temperatures, sweep gas data (flow rates [capsule inlet, outlet, and downstream at detector], pressure, and moisture content), and Fission Product Monitoring System (FPMS) data (release rates and release to birth rate ratios [R/Bs]) for each of the five capsules. A total of 94,989,908 TC temperature and sweep gas data records were received and processed by NDMAS for AGR 5/6/7 irradiation. Of these records, 41,593,387 (or 43.7% of the total) met data collection and accuracy requirements and are labeled as Qualified. A total of 57,746,693 TC temperature readings were captured from 54 installed TCs. Among them, 10,034,676 TC temperature records (only 17.4%) were Qualified and 47,701,371 TC temperatures (or 82.6%) are Failed due to 48 TC failures (63.5%) and due to missing values (19.1%). To assess performance of the operational TCs, analysis of daily correlations between TCs found no evidence of virtual junction failure for any TCs. Analyses on control charts of TC temperature differences revealed trending in TC readings for TC2, 4, 5, and 13 in Capsule 3, but there is no conclusive indication of TC drift failure that caused those trends. Therefore, TC control charts are not used to disqualify TC data, but only for users’ consideration. For sweep gas flow rates, a total of 31,519,747 gas flow records (84.4%) are Qualified for use for AGR-5/6/7 experiment; 5,723,468 gas flow records (15.4%) are Failed due mostly to missing values; and 74,641 high sweep gas flow rates (0.2 %) are Trend. A large number of Failed missing TC temperature and gas flow values were caused by an error in the data output script that outputted a ‘NULL’ value when values were unchanged. This problem was fixed during the outage of Cycle 166B, which led to a substantially decreased number of missing values during the last three cycles. Nonetheless, a large amount of non-missing data remained because of the high data acquisition frequency (1-minute) and still provided sufficient data to effectively monitor the experiment as designed. For FPMS data, NDMAS received and processed fission product release and R/B data for nine ATR cycles, when ATR core reached full power during AGR 5/6/7 irradiation. These data consist of 110,388 release rate records and 110,388 R/B records for the twelve radionuclides (Kr 85m, Kr 87, Kr 88, Kr 89, Kr 90, Xe 131m, Xe 133, Xe 135, Xe 135m, Xe 137, Xe 138, and Xe 139) for each of the five capsules. Equivalent numbers of uncertainty records associated the release rates and R/B values were provided. To date, qualification status of the FPMS data stored in the NDMAS dat

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In very-long baseline interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of a large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show how these trivial closure phases become nonzero with a brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, which is consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗