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Extensive analysis of reconstruction algorithms for DESI 2024 baryon acoustic oscillations

Reconstruction of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signal has been a standard procedure in BAO analyses over the past decade and has helped to improve the BAO parameter precision by a factor of ∼2 on average. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) BAO analysis for the first year (DR1) data uses the “standard” reconstruction framework, in which the displacement field is estimated from the observed density field by solving the linearized continuity equation in redshift space, and galaxy and random positions are shifted in order to partially remove non-linearities. There are several approaches to solving for the displacement field in real survey data, including the multigrid (MG), iterative Fast Fourier Transform (iFFT), and iterative Fast Fourier Transform particle (iFFTP) algorithms. In this work, we analyze these algorithms and compare them with various metrics including two-point statistics and the displacement itself using realistic DESI mocks. We focus on three representative DESI samples, the emission line galaxies (ELG), quasars (QSO), and the bright galaxy sample (BGS), which cover the extreme redshifts and number densities, and potential wide-angle effects. We conclude that the MG and iFFT algorithms agree within 0.4% in post-reconstruction power spectrum on BAO scales with the RecSym convention, which does not remove large-scale redshift space distortions (RSDs), in all three tracers. The RecSym convention appears to be less sensitive to displacement errors than the RecIso convention, which attempts to remove large-scale RSDs. However, iFFTP deviates from the first two; thus, we recommend against using iFFTP without further development. In addition, we provide the optimal settings for reconstruction for five years of DESI observation. The analyses presented in this work pave the way for DESI DR1 analysis as well as future BAO analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A New Plasma Radar Concept for Simultaneous Magnetic and Density Measurements

An innovative, compact 288GHz interferometer has been fabricated, tested, installed and successfully demonstrated on the LAPD-U magnetized plasma at UCLA. The system takes advantage of frequency modulated (FM) radar techniques to deliver a compact heterodyne system. In addition, the reflected power from the source is taken advantage of to eliminate the need for additional quasi-optical components. Electron density in LAPD-U plasma has recently been increased substantially thereby requiring a higher frequency/shorter wavelength interferometer to avoid deleterious refractive effects. This system satisfies those needs. The system uses a 96GHz varactor tuned Gunn oscillator which passes to a passive tripler. This tripler has ~3% conversion efficiency. The 288GHz radiation is then coupled to free space using a so-called dual-mode or Pickett horn. The output 288GHz beam is then coupled to an aspheric lens manufactured from low-loss, high-density polyethylene. This lens is employed to collimate the emerging beam. Small axial adjustment of the lens position can also be used to create a slowly focusing beam so as to optimize the measured signal. In addition, up-down or side-to-side adjustment of the lens can be utilized to steer the beam vertically or horizontally – again to optimize alignment. The propagating beam passes through a beam splitter and then through a water-free, bubble-free fused quartz window into the LAPD-U vacuum vessel. The beam-splitter is a thin sheet of G10 which reflects a small fraction of the incident power (~5 %) towards a zero-bias detector optimized for the frequency range from 220 to 300GHz. Note that waveguides at this frequency have dimensions of ~0.9mm x 0.45mm and so have very large conductive losses. This drives the use of quasi-optical propagation. The detector requires no DC bias and is very responsive (> 1V/mW into 1MΩ). Radiation is coupled to the detector via a similar lens-horn arrangement used for the launch. This reflected beam acts as the local oscillator or reference millimeter-wave beam for the detector. The remainder of the launched source beam then enters the LAPD-U vacuum vessel and passes through the plasma at the mid-plane until reaching the opposing port which is closed off with an aluminum flange. This flange is used as a mirror to retroreflect the incident 288GHz beam back along its path. The retroreflected beam exits the input port but does NOT couple directly into the zero-bias detector. Instead, the majority of the return power continues towards the 288GHz source. As mentioned above the transmitted beam enters the source a second time. This would appear undesirable. However, at these frequencies multipliers are highly non-linear elements which results in a significant portion of the return beam (~20%) re-emerging from the multiplier and horn and then coupling via the G10 beam-splitter to the zero-bias detector. This approach eliminated the need for a second quasi-optical beam-splitter. The system is extremely compact measuring approximately 28 inches x 20 inches. The above did not explain how heterodyne operation was achieved. As mentioned above the Gunn oscillator is able to be varactor tuned. This allows a low voltage to be applied to control the operating frequency of the Gunn oscillator. During heterodyne operation a sawtooth shaped voltage is applied to the varactor at 750kHz using an 80MHz Arbitrary Waveform Generator (AWG). This voltage changes the Gunn frequency linearly during the up-sweep which is then reset abruptly at the sawtooth crash to be immediately followed by another linear sweep. Passage through the 288GHz multiplier triples the frequency change experienced by the electromagnetic wave. These frequency changes are small – tens of megahertz. This FM radar approach results in the launched electromagnetic wave frequencies at the detector for the reference and plasma wave to be different. The approximately 10 ns delay propagation delay for the plasma beam results in the local oscillator and plasma beams NOT having an identical frequency – there is in fact a fixed difference frequency. The frequency tuning level of the Gunn oscillator is then adjusted so that there is ONE cycle of this difference frequency during each linear ramp. During the sawtooth crash or downward re-sweep this one cycle replays in reverse but on a very fast timescale. The process then repeats. Low-pass filtering eliminates the fast re-sweep to leave a pure sine wave heterodyne signal. When the plasma is present it introduces a phase delay in the sine wave (caused by the extremely small Doppler shift resulting from the optical path length change). Of course, to measure this phase change we need a reference. This is simply obtained from an arbitrary waveform generator which provides a synchronized output pulse train which again is low pass filtered to obtain a 750kHz sinusoidal voltage reference for the interferometer. The interferometer was installed on LAPD-U where it has worked reliably and has established that electron densities exceeding 1x10 13 cm -3 are routinely achieved. In addition, the system sensitivity was able to easily observe density fluctuation at frequencies up to 50kHz. FM Radar techniques have enabled a full demonstration of a compact, sensitive, high frequency (288GHz/1mm) heterodyne interferometer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improving deep learning performance for predicting large-scale geological ${{CO}_{2}}$ sequestration modeling through feature coarsening

Physics-based reservoir simulation for fluid flow in porous media is a numerical simulation method to predict the temporal-spatial patterns of state variables (e.g. pressure p) in porous media, and usually requires prohibitively high computational expense due to its non-linearity and the large number of degrees of freedom (DoF). This work describes a deep learning (DL) workflow to predict the pressure evolution as fluid flows in large-scale 3-dimensional(3D) heterogeneous porous media. In particular, we develop an efficient feature coarsening technique to extract the most representative information and perform the training and prediction of DL at the coarse scale, and further recover the resolution at the fine scale by spatial interpolation. We validate the DL approach to predict pressure field against physics-based simulation data for a field-scale 3D geologic CO 2 sequestration reservoir model. We evaluate the impact of feature coarsening on DL performance, and observe that the feature coarsening not only decreases the training time by >74% and reduces the memory consumption by >75%, but also maintains temporal error 0.63% on average. Besides, the DL workflow provides predictive efficiency with 1406 times speedup compared to physics-based numerical simulation. The key findings from this research significantly improve the training and prediction efficiency of deep learning model to deal with large-scale heterogeneous reservoir models, and thus it can also be further applied to accelerate workflows of history matching and reservoir optimization for close-loop reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗

Temperature-dependent mechanical properties and crystal plasticity parameters for additively manufactured Haynes-214 alloy: Experiments and numerical modeling

Our experimental mechanical testing data demonstrated that the additively manufactured (AM) laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) Haynes-214 alloy exhibits non-linear mechanical properties as the temperature rises from ambient to 870 °C. Crystal plasticity (CP) simulations provide an effective approach to gaining deeper insights into microstructure-property linkages under thermomechanical loading. This method can reduce the need for costly high-temperature mechanical testing while accounting for the effects of crystallographic texture and grain morphology on the mechanical behavior of AM materials. However, calibrating a CP model is time-consuming because individual simulations are computationally expensive and hundreds (or more) of iterations over parameter sets may be required. To address this issue, we have designed a machine learning-differential evolution (ML-DE) CP framework that can accurately interpolate the tensile properties of AM L-PBF Haynes-214 alloy across a wide temperature range from ambient to 870 °C, with minimal reliance on experimental data. The framework uses electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements to generate statistically equivalent microstructural volume elements to serve as inputs to the CP modeling framework. Stress–strain curves were generated from 1000 CP simulations, which serve as the training data set for the three ML regression algorithms explored: linear, extra-trees, and multi-layer perceptron. These three regression models were independently evaluated to compare their efficiency and identify the most suitable algorithm for the given problem. Results revealed that the extra-trees ML regressor outperforms the other models in both qualitative and quantitative aspects with an R 2 of 0.98. Subsequently, the differential evolution optimization approach is employed to calibrate the ML-based CP material parameters with experimental results obtained at various temperatures. Finally, temperature-dependent CP material parameters are formulated. The effectiveness and efficiency of the designed framework are validated through comparison with experimental results, demonstrating a high degree of agreement. These calibrated parametric constitutive equations enable further use of the CP model to study the deformation behavior of this alloy under a wide range of thermo-mechanical loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models

Atmospheric CO 2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO 2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO 2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non-linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO 2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine-scale atmospheric CO 2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain-specific parameters, and high-quality input data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GPAW: An open Python package for electronic structure calculations

We review the GPAW open-source Python package for electronic structure calculations. GPAW is based on the projector-augmented wave method and can solve the self-consistent density functional theory (DFT) equations using three different wave-function representations, namely real-space grids, plane waves, and numerical atomic orbitals. The three representations are complementary and mutually independent and can be connected by transformations via the real-space grid. This multi-basis feature renders GPAW highly versatile and unique among similar codes. By virtue of its modular structure, the GPAW code constitutes an ideal platform for the implementation of new features and methodologies. Moreover, it is well integrated with the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE), providing a flexible and dynamic user interface. In addition to ground-state DFT calculations, GPAW supports many-body GW band structures, optical excitations from the Bethe–Salpeter Equation, variational calculations of excited states in molecules and solids via direct optimization, and real-time propagation of the Kohn–Sham equations within time-dependent DFT. A range of more advanced methods to describe magnetic excitations and non-collinear magnetism in solids are also now available. In addition, GPAW can calculate non-linear optical tensors of solids, charged crystal point defects, and much more. Recently, support for graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration has been achieved with minor modifications to the GPAW code thanks to the CuPy library. We end the review with an outlook, describing some future plans for GPAW.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Skewing the CMB×LSS: a fast method for bispectrum analysis

Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements and tomographic galaxy surveys are expected to provide us with high-precision data sets in the coming years, thus paving the way for fruitful cross-correlation analyses. Here, in this paper we study the information content of the weighted skew-spectrum, a nearly-optimal estimator of the angular bispectrum amplitude, as a means to extract non-Gaussian information on both bias and cosmological parameters from the bispectra of galaxies cross-correlated with CMB lensing, while gaining significantly on speed. Our results show that for the combination of the Planck satellite and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), the difference in the constraints on bias and cosmological parameters from the skew-spectrum and the bispectrum is at most 17%. We further compare and find agreement between our theoretical skew-spectra and those estimated from N-body simulations, for which it is important to include gravitational non-linearities beyond perturbation theory and the post-Born effect for CMB lensing. We define an algorithm to apply the skew-spectrum estimator to the data and, as a preliminary step, we use the skew-spectra to constrain bias parameters and the amplitude of shot noise from the simulations through a Markov chain Monte Carlo likelihood analysis, finding that it may be possible to reach percent-level estimates for the linear bias parameter b 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Iterative reconstruction excursions for Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and beyond

ABSTRACT The density field reconstruction technique has been widely used for recovering the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature in galaxy surveys that has been degraded due to non-linearities. Recent studies advocated adopting iterative steps to improve the recovery much beyond that of the standard technique. In this paper, we investigate the performance of a few selected iterative reconstruction techniques focusing on the BAO and the broad-band shape of the two-point clustering. We include redshift-space distortions, halo bias, and shot noise and inspect the components of the reconstructed field in Fourier space and in configuration space using both density field-based reconstruction and displacement field-based reconstruction. We find that the displacement field reconstruction becomes quickly challenging in the presence of non-negligible shot noise and therefore present surrogate methods that can be practically applied to a much more sparse field such as galaxies. For a galaxy field, implementing a debiasing step to remove the Lagrangian bias appears crucial for the displacement field reconstruction. We show that the iterative reconstruction does not substantially improve the BAO feature beyond an aggressively optimized standard reconstruction with a small smoothing kernel. However, we find taking iterative steps allows us to use a small smoothing kernel more ‘stably’, i.e. without causing a substantial deviation from the linear power spectrum on large scales. In one specific example we studied, we find that a deviation of 13 per cent in $P(k\sim 0.1\, h{\rm \,\,Mpc^{-1}})$ with an aggressive standard reconstruction can reduce to 3–4 per cent with iterative steps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimal Control of SOEC-Based Hydrogen Production Systems for Demand Response Using Deep Reinforcement Learning in Smart Grids

Solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) hydrogen production technology can range in size from small, appliance-size equipment to large-scale, central production facilities that can be tied directly to renewable or non-greenhouse-gas-emitting forms of electricity production, making it an ideal resource for demand response (DR). The SOEC hydrogen production system is a complex integrated system that encompasses fluid dynamics, electrical dynamics, and electrochemical and thermal dynamics, all of which involve non-linearity and non-convexity. Proper control of the SOEC hydrogen production system is crucial to enable its participation in the DR program. Here, to overcome the difficulty of designing an explicit control law for such nonlinear systems with nonconvex optimization features in DR applications, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is explored to achieve the optimal control of the SOEC system for DR participation. Specifically, a twin delayed deterministic policy gradient (TD3) control framework is applied to achieve optimal response performance during DR events by considering power tracking error and hydrogen production efficiency with a suitable reward function. Two case studies with grid connections for tracking different DR commands were investigated. The first case study involved operating conditions reaching the boundaries, while the second involved operating conditions within the boundaries. The results showed that the proposed DRL-based control for SOEC can track the DR signal in a timely manner while maintaining high energy efficiency.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Adaptive Power Flow Approximations With Second-Order Sensitivity Insights

The power flow equations are fundamental to power system planning, analysis, and control. However, the inherent non-linearity and non-convexity of these equations present formidable obstacles in problem-solving processes. To mitigate these challenges, recent research has proposed adaptive power flow linearizations that aim to achieve accuracy over wide operating ranges. The accuracy of these approximations inherently depends on the curvature of the power flow equations within these ranges, which necessitates considering second-order sensitivities. In this paper, we leverage second-order sensitivities to both analyze and improve power flow approximations. We evaluate the curvature across broad operational ranges and subsequently utilize this information to inform the computation of various sample-based power flow approximation techniques. Additionally, we leverage second-order sensitivities to guide the development of rational approximations that yield linear constraints in optimization problems. In conclusion, this approach is extended to enhance accuracy beyond the limitations of linear functions across varied operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An entropy-based debiasing approach to quantifying experimental coverage for novel applications of interest in the nuclear community

This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .

Bayesian data assimilation↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

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Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗