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DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-Temperature Plasma Treatment for Enhanced Recovery of Highly Valued Critical REEs from Coal (Final Report)

The principle objective of this project was to develop a novel process flowsheet using low-temperature plasma treatment (LTP) integrated with conventional hydrometallurgical processes to recover rare earth elements (REEs), especially highly valued REEs (i.e. scandium and critical REEs), from coal and coal byproducts. LTP treatment was used to pretreat the solid feed material prior to leaching in an effort to improve the leaching characteristics of the REEs and potentially reduce acid consumption. Initially, a detailed experimental program was performed on a laboratory LTP furnace to identify a set of process parameter values to be used for assessing the enhanced leaching performance achieved on four specific gravity fractions of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse coal refuse materials. High-temperature oxidation (HTO)) was also evaluated as a means for improving REE leachability on the same fractions of both coal sources. The lixiviants used to assess leachability improvements included: i) untreated water, ii) 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and iii) 1.2 M sulfuric acid solution at a temperature of 75°C. The laboratory data was used to develop multiple process flow sheets using HTO only to produce a rare earth oxide mix concentrate or utilizing both LTP and HTO treatment processes to generate a high purity heavy REO mix concentrate and a light REO mix concentrate. A techno-economic analysis was performed on each circuit. Low-temperature plasma oxidation was found to enhance REE leaching characteristics for all specific gravity (SG) fractions of the West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse material. The leaching recovery improvement was preferentially achieved for the heavy REEs with higher values obtained when treating the lower density fraction material. For example, the leaching recovery for the heavy REEs in the untreated 1.6 SG Float fraction material was 8% in a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution. After LTP treatment for 32 hours, heavy REE recovery increased to 33%. The corresponding recovery value for the light REEs was 10%. These findings indicate a strong affinity of the heavy REEs with the organic material, which is the component being reduced in content during the LTP treatment. Scanning electron micrographs showed the development of a honeycomb structure with increased LTP treatment with higher surface area as confirmed from BET measurements. Higher surface area promotes improved leaching efficiency due to enhance chemical interactions. When using 1.2 M sulfuric acid, the LTP treatment was found to provide a heavy REE recovery increase from 23% to 53% for the 1.6 SG Float fraction which corresponded to an ash content increase from around 20% to 35%. However, LTP treatment provided no improvement in leaching characteristic for the 2.2 SG sink material in the acid solution, which was likely due to the low organic content. The LTP treatment of the Fire Clay SG fractions provided no improvement in REE leaching characteristic, which may be due to the association with REE minerals such as monazite and REE-associated mineral matter such as clays. High temperature oxidation using temperatures in the range of 600-750OC was found to significantly enhance the leaching characteristics of both the light and heavy REEs for all density fractions in both coarse coal refuse materials. Generally, the increase in light REE recovery for the West Kentucky material was from 15% for the untreated material to 90% for the HTO treated material at 600°C. Recovery values dropped significantly when using temperatures below 600°C and above 750°C. The impact of the excessive temperatures was most likely a result of sintering. For the heavy REEs, HTO significantly improved recovery in the lighter SG fractions, which may be due to an affinity with the organic content. Only limited heavy REE recovery improvement was obtained for the denser SG fractions. Another benefit of HTO is the conversion of calcium-based minerals to a very soluble calcium oxide, which is removable using a mild acid solution, and the conversion of Fe minerals to relatively insoluble minerals such as hematite and magnetite. The pregnant leaching solution produced from the leaching of all SG fractions obtained from both coal sources was treated using two stages of solvent extraction procedurally modeling a rougher-cleaner circuit followed by oxalic acid precipitation. Rare earth oxide products having a purity greater than 97% was produced from nearly all of the SG fractions. A novel process flowsheet was developed based on the selective leaching of heavy REEs that was made possible through LTP treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse followed by salt leaching. In the flowsheet, coal refuse material is ground to a top size of 1mm and then treated by LTP. The treated material is mixed into a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and then filtered to produce a heavy REE enriched pregnant leach solution. The heavy REEs are concentrated by two stages of selective precipitation to produce a heavy REE mix oxalate and then roasted to obtain a heavy REO mix concentrate. The solid residues remaining after salt leaching is dried and then subjected to HTO treatment followed by concentration using selective precipitation and roasting to produce a light REO mix concentrate. An alternative circuit was developed using HTO treatment only to treat 100% of the coarse refuse material followed by selective precipitation and roasting to generate a high purity REO mix product. A techno-economic analysis performed for the treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse based on a hypothetical 500-tph plant revealed that the net present value for all scenarios was significantly negative. Primary reasons include: i) a substantial decrease in the basket value of the final product relative to the feed and ii) high chemical costs relative to the amount of product generated. The basket value reduction was primarily due to little to no scandium recovery due to poor leaching characteristics when using low acid concentrations as necessitated by the low feed grades. Operating costs were primarily influenced by the chemical costs relative to the kilograms of concentrate produced and feed grade. For the Fire Clay coarse refuse material, the total operating cost was estimated to be $354 per kg of REO produced which was higher than the basket value of the REO product ($276/kg). Approximately 37% of the total cost was the sulfuric acid used during the leaching process. A comparative analysis performed to assess the economic viability of using low-temperature plasma furnaces found that market value enhancement for the generation of both heavy REO and light REO concentrates will be needed in addition to significant technology advancements to reduce the cost of plasma furnaces.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Concentrating Solar Power Technologies into the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP)

As the world increases renewable energy deployment, there is an increasing interest in hybridizing various generation and storage technologies to maximize net benefit to the developer and/or off-taker. A particularly interesting combination of renewable technologies is concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES), photovoltaics (PV), and electrochemical battery energy storage (BESS). Due to the system complexity of CSP technology, it is difficult to evaluate the technological and financial performance of a CSP-PV hybrid system without detailed modeling of annual operations. To address this challenge, we have developed a modeling framework for evaluating the performance and financial viability of CSP systems hybridized with PV and battery technologies. This modeling effort incorporates CSP tower and trough systems into an existing modeling tool recently developed by NREL referred to as the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP). This report outlines the modeling methodology as well as preliminary results from example case studies conducted using the model. The methodology describes: (i) the integration of CSP tower and troughs into HOPP using python interfaces to access System Advisor Model (SAM) underlining technology models, (ii) the mathematical formulation of the mixed integer linear program dispatch optimization model which optimizes operations of storage asset to either maximize system revenue or minimize operating cost while load following, (iii) the design analysis methods implemented within HOPP, and (iv) simulation clustering for the purposes of reducing computational expense. We exercise the model using a case study of a future scenario where we assume (i) CSP and PV technologies achieve the 2030 cost targets provided by the Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), (ii) battery costs reduce to the 2030 mid cost projection presented by NREL. Lastly, (iii) electricity prices for southern California in 2030 are provided by NREL's Cambium database, and (iv) a capacity payment of $150/kW-yr based on the system capacity factor during the to 100 net-load hours.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids for DOE’s National Laboratory Facilities: A Case Study for Idaho National Laboratory

The concept of net-zero carbon microgrids (NZMs) has received significant interest in recent years considering its promises to provide both energy resilience and carbon reduction. This paper investigates the practical constraints of NZM deployment in a government facility, exploring various cases revolving around the objectives of cost, emission, and energy resilience. The technoeconomic results for one of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) facilities are discussed to identify a practical and economic approach to achieve the net-zero target considering both present and future scenarios. The study shows the carbon reduction, resilience, and economic success of net-zero initiatives are tied directly to the energy portfolio of its electricity provider. The NZMs typically required a hybrid mix of renewable generation and storage assets to maximize onsite clean generation and to provide reliable power during grid outages. Besides supporting the ongoing net-zero effort at INL, this work also provides a framework that can be directly used in other facilities aspiring to become a net zero in the future.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

State of Innovation 2024: Paving the Way for Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete

Concrete production in the U.S. accounted for nearly 393 million cubic yards in 2023, with $38.8 billion in revenue. While cement, the key ingredient in concrete, is only 10%-15% of concrete's mixture by mass, 8% of total global emissions come from the production of cement. A significant challenge lies in the fact that roughly 51% of concrete emissions stem from the material calcination process of cement production. Stakeholders ranging from cement producers to government agencies are beginning to take measures to significantly reduce concrete emissions by 2050 and are seeking novel technologies from the startup community. Strategies to lower carbon emissions include reducing quantities of cement in concrete formulas; optimizing digital and automated production; lower temperature processing; carbon capture, utilization, and durable storage; and other cost-saving approaches to energy and material efficiencies. New materials based on carbon mineralization and novel cement chemistries hold the potential to reach net-zero or even carbon-negative concrete production; however, there is presently no readily available substitute that can replicate concrete's unique properties and versatility at the volume demanded by construction worldwide. The nature of concrete's raw materials, diverse applications, and scale of demand means that complete decarbonization will rely on a combination of innovative production methods and novel cement chemistries. Low-carbon solutions will need to compete economically with traditional concrete to become viable in a high-volume commodity market, although consumer demand and regulation will play important roles. Despite these challenges, this analysis reveals that venture capital (VC) investments in low-carbon concrete reflect a growing awareness of the decarbonized cement market opportunity. Between 2022 and 2023 emerging low-carbon technologies garnered more than $700 million in VC investments, representing a growing share of investment in the built environment. An investment gap appears after Series A for technology solutions, demonstrating the sector's potential, as well as the need for additional performance assurance and technology incubation.

cement↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor-liquid metal battery system in energy markets: An evaluation of potential costs, technology, and policy impacts

Microreactors represent an emerging innovation in the nuclear industry; yet have been overshadowed by their high capital costs. With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), new opportunities have emerged to improve the economics of microreactor systems. This work examines liquid metal batteries (LMB) as a value-adding technology as part of microreactor-LMB systems within three U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO. Our investigation considers key uncertainties: the cost of microreactors, the performance of LMBs, and the eligible tax credit levels. To this end, we use a dispatch optimization to trace not only the changes in system economics but also to provide a granular picture of energy delivery within the systems. We find that even with favorable costs for microreactors, significant regional variations in the project sizing and returns exist across the markets. Our heuristic method identifies their non-electric application potentials beyond electricity and technical requirements to maximize returns. The results suggest that 12–39 % of reactor heat could be cost-effectively diverted to produce more valuable by-products in U.S. markets. Including the impacts of tax credits, we establish the outcomes of each provision with varying rates. Coupling an LMB to a microreactor consistently improves the net present value of a microreactor compared to its standalone operation. In conclusion, for reasonable assumed conditions, we quantify a heterogeneous impact of round-trip efficiency (RTE) and extended LMB service life across the three markets—a one-year extension in LMB service life is roughly equivalent to a 2.11 % improvement in RTE for ERCOT, 1.16 % for PJM, and 1.04 % for MISO.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory Evaluation of Federated, Hierarchical Controls for Distribution Power System Management: Preprint

The connection of more loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to the distribution power system brings both challenges and opportunities to system operators. There are opportunities to aggregate flexible loads and DERs to provide transmission grid services, but the coordinated actions of DERs being managed by independent, third-party DER aggregators to support transmission system operations can present challenges. We developed a federated DER management architecture and control framework that aims to manage heterogeneous DERs to deliver reliable transmission grid services while respecting distribution system constraints. The controls include stochastic day-ahead optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. We present simulation results obtained from a realistic laboratory test bed of federated controls managing DERs within a substation service area to make the substation net power follow the optimal net power determined by the day-ahead optimization based on cost and limiting reverse power flow.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗

DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Conversion of Wet Waste to Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Chemical Intermediates via Catalytic Upgrading

Wet waste is a low-cost, abundant feedstock capable of displacing significant amounts of domestic petrofuel and petrochemical consumption. We present a sequential biochemical-thermochemical pathway to upgrade wet waste into hydrocarbon sustainable aviation fuel blendstock and chemical intermediates with near-zero or net-negative life-cycle CO2 emissions. Waste is initially upgraded to carboxylic acids via arrested anaerobic digestion, then catalytically converted to hydrocarbons via sequential heterogeneous catalytic ketonization, cyclization, and hydrodeoxygenation. We will discuss kinetics, durability, and reactor design of key catalytic processes, as well as applicability of final products to targeted applications.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Engineering Challenges of Solution and Slurry-Phase Chemical Hydrogen Storage Materials for Automotive Fuel Cell Applications

In this work, we present the research findings of the DOE-funded Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence (HSECoE) related to liquid-phase and slurry-phase chemical hydrogen storage media and their potential as future hydrogen storage media for automotive applications. Chemical hydrogen storage media other than neat liquid compositions will prove difficult to meet the DOE system level targets. Solid- and slurry-phase chemical hydrogen storage media requiring off-board regeneration are impractical and highly unlikely to be implemented for automotive applications because of the formidable task of developing solid- or slurry-phase transport systems that are commercially reliable and economical throughout the entire life cycle of the fuel. Additionally, the regeneration cost and efficiency of chemical hydrogen storage media is currently the single most prohibitive barrier to implementing chemical hydrogen storage media. Ideally, neat liquid-phase chemical hydrogen storage media with net-usable gravimetric hydrogen capacities of greater than 7.8 wt% are projected to meet the 2017 DOE system level gravimetric and volumetric targets. The research presented herein is a collection of research findings that do not in and of themselves warrant a dedicated manuscript. However, the collection of results do, in fact, highlight the engineering challenges and short-comings in scaling up and demonstrating fluid-phase ammonia borane and alane compositions that all future materials researchers working in hydrogen storage should be aware of.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Remanufacturable "Net-Zero Pb" Perovskite Solar Modules

Our introduced a low-cost recycling method for perovskite PV cells which utilize KI salt-based solvents, a more sustainable chemical compared to commonly used chemicals such as DMF, chlorobenzene etc. All steps of the recycling method were demonstrated in detail in publications and presentations of the team. In addition, the techno-economic team demonstrated that the KI-based method is a more promising option compared to other methods investigated in the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaic Decision Tools for Perennial and Field Crop Farmers

This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-Scale Simulation of Regional Demand Flexibility Implementation and Customer Economic Impact

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study conducted a large-scale simulation of over 60,000 customers in a region the size of Texas to demonstrate the effective coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) in commercial and residential buildings. The integrated simulation included both the bulk (wholesale generation and transmission) and distribution systems. The DERs (including batteries, electric vehicles, air conditioning, and water heaters) participated in a transactive energy retail market that was integrated into an existing competitive wholesale market. The engineering and economic performance of the resulting demand flexibility was evaluated over annual simulations for both moderate and high renewable generation scenarios. A detailed parametric cost model was developed to enable detailed economic analysis of key stakeholders. In addition, fixed and dynamic customer tariffs were designed and applied to the customer population. This allowed the impact on annual customer bills to be analyzed for various building types (residential versus commercial; single- versus multi-family). This paper presents results showing the relative flexibility of batteries, electric vehicles, and building loads throughout the year and under different renewable scenarios. This feeds a detailed breakdown of the impact this flexibility has on the operating costs of the grid and the resulting net economic benefit. Finally, the study showed that practically all customer classes (including non-participating customers) save money under the proposed demand flexibility scheme. The study found overall net annual economic savings of $3.3-5.0B for a region the size of Texas equating to average customer bill savings of 10-16%.

Reeve, Hayden M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Integrated Hydrogen Production Analysis Tool

This is an Excel-based time-independent discount cash flow calculator for LWR-HTSE systems. The tool incorporates (1) discounted cash flow and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) analysis, (2) sensitivity analysis with respect to select financial performance metrics with output ‘tornado’ charts, (3) profitability analysis represented by heat maps using the two most sensitive parameters, (4) electricity versus hydrogen production preference analysis by comparing change in net present value (?NPV) between NPP-HTSE and business-as-usual electricity production for the grid, and (5) competitiveness analysis by comparing the calculated LCOH for NPP-HTSE with that of steam methane reforming, which is the conventional process to produce hydrogen.

Cheng, WenChi [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Capture Technologies: Status and Challenges

Presentation at the Society of Petroleum Engineers Workshop: Oil and Gas Technology for a Net-Zero World – Defining Our Grand Challenges for the Next Decade. Provides a high-level overview of point source carbon capture and direct air capture technologies, challenges and cost estimation.

Fout, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗