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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO 2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO 2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

climate-change mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metocean Reference Station Best Practices: MORS-1 Case Study

The goal of a Metocean Reference Station should be to aid both near-term development of the offshore wind energy industry as well as long-term climate and energy research. Capitalizing on existing shared-use facilities wherever possible, reference stations should provide data valued by industry users as well as research users in a cost-effective way. Cost-effectiveness is a critical component of developing a reference site, as the real value of the site's data collection efforts is the length of the time series it is able to sustain. This report seeks to lay out the best practices toward developing and maintaining metocean reference stations in the United States. The best practices described here focus on suitable platforms, sensor integration, and long-term operations of the reference station itself, as best practices of operations for individual sensors for the research community or validation enterprises focused on industrial use of metocean data are well described in the literature. This work focuses on potential stations in the United States because the market for reference data and validation facilities is less well defined in the United States, given the young age of the rapidly emerging offshore wind energy industry here.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

WOBBLE: A Proposed Mission to Characterize Past and Present Water on Mars

WOBBLE ("Water Observations from a Balloon Borne Light Explorer") is a mission concept study for a small robotic probe to explore Mars and to accomplish a scientific mission compatible with the goals of the NASA Code S enterprise. The detection of past or present water is a crucial goal for Mars exploration, representing a cross-cutting science theme relevant to past or extant life, climate history, sample return missions and eventual human exploration. The WOBBLE mission concept was developed to study evidence of water using in-situ detection methods. The features on Mars most suited to this investigation are the gullies identified by Malin and Edgett as evidence for recent, near-surface runoff of liquid water. These features are typically located on the inside face of crater rims, where the local slope angle is at or near the angle of repose. This makes the terrain difficult or impossible to access with conventional wheeled rover technology. Combined with the small size of the gullies in relation to a standard landing error ellipse, scientific investigation of these features requires a new approach to surface mobility. WOBBLE uses a low-altitude balloon-borne platform to traverse the surface from the landing site, to the investigation site, and then rise up the slope to investigate the regions of interest at close range. Of the mobility technologies available for near-term Mars exploration, only a balloon platform is capable of a well targeted, detailed sampling of the gully regions over periods of days or more. The science approach embodied in WOBBLE is two-pronged, designed to investigate both the historical evidence of liquid water utilizing high-resolution geomorphology and the characterization of mineral deposits, and present subsurface liquid water using radar sounding techniques. The WOBBLE balloon is a high-pressure hydrogen gas design, 24 meters in diameter and lifting a total payload of 130 kg, including a high-resolution camera/IR imager, Raman spectrometer, and a ground penetrating radar (GPR) sounder. The stowed balloon and payload are designed to fit within the current airbag delivery system being built for the Mars Exploration Rovers. Characterization of local meteorological conditions and wind is made over the initial sols following landing and before balloon inflation. Following balloon inflation and launch, a controlled, targeted approach toward the identified regions of interest is made in a series of several low-altitude "hops," with the balloon tethered to the ground between the hop intervals. A "snake" system is used to control the altitude to a few tens of meters above the local ground level. Enroute to the target gully, GPR soundings and Raman spectroscopy measurements study past or present water, while continued camera bearings and meteorological measurements refine the next "hop" trajectory. Once at the gully/outflow region, GPR and Raman soundings continue while the camera obtains detailed, approx. 0.5 cm images for geomorphology studies. The WOBBLE concept is applicable to Mars Scout, Mars Surveyor, or Discovery class missions.

Udrea, Bogdan↗
NASA NTRS2004

GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan

The purpose of this Science and Implementation Plan is to describe GAPP science objectives and the activities required to meet these objectives, both specifically for the near-term and more generally for the longer-term. The GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) is part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) initiative that is aimed at observing, understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes at various time and spatial scales. The mission of GAPP is to demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources over intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, as an integral part of the climate system.

TIME SCALES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗
NASA NTRS2008

Alternate Fuels for Use in Commercial Aircraft

The engine and aircraft Research and Development (R&D) communities have been investigating alternative fueling in near-term, midterm, and far-term aircraft. A drop in jet fuel replacement, consisting of a kerosene (Jet-A) and synthetic fuel blend, will be possible for use in existing and near-term aircraft. Future midterm aircraft may use a biojet and synthetic fuel blend in ultra-efficient airplane designs. Future far-term engines and aircraft in 50-plus years may be specifically designed to use a low- or zero-carbon fuel. Synthetic jet fuels from coal, natural gas, or other hydrocarbon feedstocks are very similar in performance to conventional jet fuel, yet the additional CO2 produced during the manufacturing needs to be permanently sequestered. Biojet fuels need to be developed specifically for jet aircraft without displacing food production. Envisioned as midterm aircraft fuel, if the performance and cost liabilities can be overcome, biofuel blends with synthetic jet or Jet-A fuels have near-term potential in terms of global climatic concerns. Long-term solutions address dramatic emissions reductions through use of alternate aircraft fuels such as liquid hydrogen or liquid methane. Either of these new aircraft fuels will require an enormous change in infrastructure and thus engine and airplane design. Life-cycle environmental questions need to be addressed.

Daggett, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

TERRA Battery Thermal Control Anomaly - Simulation and Corrective Actions

The TERRA spacecraft was launched in December 1999 from Vandenberg Air Force Base, becoming the flagship of NASA's Earth Observing System program to gather data on how the planet's processes create climate. Originally planned as a 5 year mission, it still provides valuable science data after nearly 10 years on orbit. On October 13th, 2009 at 16:23z following a routine inclination maneuver, TERRA experienced a battery cell failure and a simultaneous failure of several battery heater control circuits used to maintain cell temperatures and gradients within the battery. With several cells nearing the minimum survival temperature, preventing the electrolyte from freezing was the first priority. After several reset attempts and power cycling of the control electronics failed to reestablish control authority on the primary side of the controller, it was switched to the redundant side, but anomalous performance again prevented full heater control of the battery cells. As the investigation into the cause of the anomaly and corrective action continued, a battery thermal model was developed to be used in determining the control ability remaining and to simulate and assess corrective actions. Although no thermal model or detailed reference data of the battery was available, sufficient information was found to allow a simplified model to be constructed, correlated against pre-anomaly telemetry, and used to simulate the thermal behavior at several points after the anomaly. It was then used to simulate subsequent corrective actions to assess their impact on cell temperatures. This paper describes the rapid development of this thermal model, including correlation to flight data before and after the anomaly., along with a comparative assessment of the analysis results used to interpret the telemetry to determine the extent of damage to the thermal control hardware, with near-term corrective actions and long-term operations plan to overcome the anomaly.

Grob, Eric W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Environments and Spacecraft Effects Concept: Transitioning Research to Operations and Applications

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a course to expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while expanding its mission to explore the solar system. Destinations such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA), Mars and its moons, and the outer planets are but a few of the mission targets. NASA has established numerous organizations specializing in specific space environments disciplines that will serve to enable these missions. To complement these existing discipline organizations, a concept is presented focusing on the development of a space environment and spacecraft effects organization. This includes space climate, space weather, natural and induced space environments, and effects on spacecraft materials and systems. This space environment and spacecraft effects organization would be comprised of Technical Working Groups (TWG) focusing on, for example: a) Charged Particles (CP), b) Space Environmental Effects (SEE), and c) Interplanetary and Extraterrestrial Environments (IEE). These technical working groups will generate products and provide knowledge supporting four functional areas: design environments, environment effects, operational support, and programmatic support. The four functional areas align with phases in the program mission lifecycle and are briefly described below. Design environments are used primarily in the mission concept and design phases of a program. Environment effects focuses on the material, component, sub-system and system-level selection and the testing to verify design and operational performance. Operational support provides products based on real time or near real time space weather observations to mission operators to aid in real time and near-term decision-making. The programmatic support function maintains an interface with the numerous programs within NASA and other federal agencies to ensure that communications are well established and the needs of the programs are being met. The programmatic support function also includes working in coordination with the program in anomaly resolution and generation of lesson learned documentation. The goal of this space environment and spacecraft effects organization is to develop decision-making tools and engineering products to support the mission phases of mission concept through operations by focusing on transitioning research to application. Products generated by this space environments and spacecraft effects organization are suitable for use in anomaly investigations. This paper will describe the organizational structure for this space environments and spacecraft effects organization, and outline the scope of conceptual TWG's and their relationship to the functional areas.

Edwards, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Environments and Spacecraft Effects Organization Concept

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a course to expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while also expanding its mission to explore the solar system. Destinations such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA), Mars and its moons, and the outer planets are but a few of the mission targets. Each new destination presents an opportunity to increase our knowledge of the solar system and the unique environments for each mission target. NASA has multiple technical and science discipline areas specializing in specific space environments disciplines that will help serve to enable these missions. To complement these existing discipline areas, a concept is presented focusing on the development of a space environments and spacecraft effects (SENSE) organization. This SENSE organization includes disciplines such as space climate, space weather, natural and induced space environments, effects on spacecraft materials and systems and the transition of research information into application. This space environment and spacecraft effects organization will be composed of Technical Working Groups (TWG). These technical working groups will survey customers and users, generate products, and provide knowledge supporting four functional areas: design environments, engineering effects, operational support, and programmatic support. The four functional areas align with phases in the program mission lifecycle and are briefly described below. Design environments are used primarily in the mission concept and design phases of a program. Engineering effects focuses on the material, component, sub-system and system-level selection and the testing to verify design and operational performance. Operational support provides products based on real time or near real time space weather to mission operators to aid in real time and near-term decision-making. The programmatic support function maintains an interface with the numerous programs within NASA, other federal government agencies, and the commercial sector to ensure that communications are well established and the needs of the programs are being met. The programmatic support function also includes working in coordination with the program in anomaly resolution and generation of lessons learned documentation. The goal of this space environment and spacecraft effects organization is to develop decision-making tools and engineering products to support all mission phases from mission concept through operations by focusing on transitioning research to application. Products generated by this space environments and effects application are suitable for use in anomaly investigations. This paper will describe the scope of the TWGs and their relationship to the functional areas, and discuss an organizational structure for this space environments and spacecraft effects organization.

Edwards, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Overview of the Space Environments and Spacecraft Effects Organization Concept

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a course to expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while also expanding its mission to explore our Earth, and the solar system. Destinations such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA), Mars and its moons, and the outer planets are but a few of the mission targets. Each new destination presents an opportunity to increase our knowledge on the solar system and the unique environments for each mission target. NASA has multiple technical and science discipline areas specializing in specific space environments fields that will serve to enable these missions. To complement these existing discipline areas, a concept is presented focusing on the development of a space environment and spacecraft effects (SESE) organization. This SESE organization includes disciplines such as space climate, space weather, natural and induced space environments, effects on spacecraft materials and systems, and the transition of research information into application. This space environment and spacecraft effects organization will be composed of Technical Working Groups (TWG). These technical working groups will survey customers and users, generate products, and provide knowledge supporting four functional areas: design environments, engineering effects, operational support, and programmatic support. The four functional areas align with phases in the program mission lifecycle and are briefly described below. Design environments are used primarily in the mission concept and design phases of a program. Environment effects focuses on the material, component, sub-system, and system-level response to the space environment and include the selection and testing to verify design and operational performance. Operational support provides products based on real time or near real time space weather to mission operators to aid in real time and near-term decision-making. The programmatic support function maintains an interface with the numerous programs within NASA, other federal government agencies, and the commercial sector to ensure that communications are well established and the needs of the programs are being met. The programmatic support function also includes working in coordination with the program in anomaly resolution and generation of lessons learned documentation. The goal of this space environment and spacecraft effects organization is to develop decision-making tools and engineering products to support all mission phases from mission concept through operations by focusing on transitioning research to application. Products generated by this space environments and effects application are suitable for use in anomaly investigations. This paper will describe the scope and purpose of the space environments and spacecraft effects organization and describe the TWG's and their relationship to the functional areas.

Edwards, David L.↗