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At least 127 records · Page 7

CoMTE: Counterfactual Explanations for Supervised Machine Learning Frameworks on Multivariate Time Series Data

CoMTE is a novel explainability technique that provides counterfactual explanations for supervised machine learning frameworks on multivariate time series data. CoMTE outperforms state-of-the-art explainability methods on several different machine learning frameworks and data sets in comprehensibility and robustness. CoMTE can be used to debug machine learning frameworks and gain a better understanding of the underlying multivariate time series data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-1686 O

Leung, VitusJ.↗

Visualizing Clustering and Uncertainty Analysis with Multivariate Longitudinal Data

Multivariate time-series datasets are intrinsic to the study of dynamic, naturalistic behavior, such as in the applications of finance and motion video analysis. Statistical models provide the ability to identify event patterns in these data under conditions of uncertainty, but researchers must be able to evaluate how well a model uses available information in a dataset for clustering decisions and for uncertainty information. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is an established method for clustering time-series data, where the hidden states of the HMM are the clusters. We develop novel methods for quantifying the uncertainty of the performance of and for visualizing the clustering performance and uncertainty of fitting a HMM to multivariate time-series data. We explain the usefulness of uncertainty quantification and visualization with evaluating the performance of clustering models, as well as how information exploitation of time-series datasets can be enhanced. We implement our methods to cluster patterns of scanpaths from raw eye tracking data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of COTS Electronics by Power Spectrum Analysis and Multivariate Data Analysis

Power spectrum analysis (PSA) is a fast, non-destructive, sensitive method for examining commercial off-the-shelf ( COTS ) electronic components. These features make PSA attractive for both component screening and surveillance in support of component reliability efforts. Current analysis methods limit the utility of PSA due to the need to manually examine the results of analysis to identify anomalous parts. This study demonstrates the development and application of a workflow to automate the screening of COTS electronic components. Further, this study demonstrates the use of multivariate algorithms to assess aging of Zener diodes. These workflows can be readily extended to other components, combining the benefits of PSA and multivariate analysis to screen and evaluate COTS electronic components.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Steady-state decoupling and design of linear multivariable systems

A constructive criterion for decoupling the steady states of a linear time-invariant multivariable system is presented. This criterion consists of a set of inequalities which, when satisfied, will cause the steady states of a system to be decoupled. Stability analysis and a new design technique for such systems are given. A new and simple connection between single-loop and multivariable cases is found. These results are then applied to the compensation design for NASA STOL C-8A aircraft. Both steady-state decoupling and stability are justified through computer simulations.

Thaler, G. J.↗

A reduced adaptive observer for multivariable systems

An adaptive observer for multivariable systems of order n having p output measurements is developed. The adaptive observer allows both the generation of the state of the system and - at least - the partial identification of the unknown parameters of the system. The order of this adaptive observer is n - p plus 1. The adaptive algorithm, based upon Liapunov synthesis, may be implemented in real time without the use of derivative operators. Eigenvalues of the observer may be arbitrarily or almost arbitrarily located. With some mild restriction upon the structure of the multivariable system, and upon the command system input, both generation of state and identification of parameters is guaranteed globally.

Carroll, R. L.↗

Application of multivariable search techniques to the optimization of airfoils in a low speed nonlinear inviscid flow field

Multivariable search techniques are applied to a particular class of airfoil optimization problems. These are the maximization of lift and the minimization of disturbance pressure magnitude in an inviscid nonlinear flow field. A variety of multivariable search techniques contained in an existing nonlinear optimization code, AESOP, are applied to this design problem. These techniques include elementary single parameter perturbation methods, organized search such as steepest-descent, quadratic, and Davidon methods, randomized procedures, and a generalized search acceleration technique. Airfoil design variables are seven in number and define perturbations to the profile of an existing NACA airfoil. The relative efficiency of the techniques are compared. It is shown that elementary one parameter at a time and random techniques compare favorably with organized searches in the class of problems considered. It is also shown that significant reductions in disturbance pressure magnitude can be made while retaining reasonable lift coefficient values at low free stream Mach numbers.

Hague, D. S.↗

Diagonal dominance for the multivariable Nyquist array using function minimization

A new technique for the design of multivariable control systems using the multivariable Nyquist array method was developed. A conjugate direction function minimization algorithm is utilized to achieve a diagonal dominant condition over the extended frequency range of the control system. The minimization is performed on the ratio of the moduli of the off-diagonal terms to the moduli of the diagonal terms of either the inverse or direct open loop transfer function matrix. Several new feedback design concepts were also developed, including: (1) dominance control parameters for each control loop; (2) compensator normalization to evaluate open loop conditions for alternative design configurations; and (3) an interaction index to determine the degree and type of system interaction when all feedback loops are closed simultaneously. This new design capability was implemented on an IBM 360/75 in a batch mode but can be easily adapted to an interactive computer facility. The method was applied to the Pratt and Whitney F100 turbofan engine.

Leininger, G. G.↗

Evaluation of an F100 multivariable control using a real-time engine simulation

A multivariable control design for the F100 turbofan engine was evaluated, as part of the F100 multivariable control synthesis (MVCS) program. The evaluation utilized a real-time, hybrid computer simulation of the engine and a digital computer implementation of the control. Significant results of the evaluation are presented and recommendations concerning future engine testing of the control are made.

Szuch, J. R.↗

Multivariable quadratic synthesis of an advanced turbofan engine controller

A digital controller for an advanced turbofan engine utilizing multivariate feedback is described. The theoretical background of locally linearized control synthesis is reviewed briefly. The application of linear quadratic regulator techniques to the practical control problem is presented. The design procedure has been applied to the F100 turbofan engine, and details of the structure of this system are explained. Selected results from simulations of the engine and controller are utilized to illustrate the operation of the system. It is shown that the general multivariable design procedure will produce practical and implementable controllers for modern, high-performance turbine engines.

Dehoff, R. L.↗

Multivariable control altitude demonstration on the F100 turbofan engine

The F100 Multivariable control synthesis (MVCS) program, was aimed at demonstrating the benefits of LGR synthesis theory in the design of a multivariable engine control system for operation throughout the flight envelope. The advantages of such procedures include: (1) enhanced performance from cross-coupled controls, (2) maximum use of engine variable geometry, and (3) a systematic design procedure that can be applied efficiently to new engine systems. The control system designed, under the MVCS program, for the Pratt & Whitney F100 turbofan engine is described. Basic components of the control include: (1) a reference value generator for deriving a desired equilibrium state and an approximate control vector, (2) a transition model to produce compatible reference point trajectories during gross transients, (3) gain schedules for producing feedback terms appropriate to the flight condition, and (4) integral switching logic to produce acceptable steady-state performance without engine operating limit exceedance.

Lehtinen, B.↗

A sensitivity analysis for the F100 turbofan engine using the multivariable Nyquist array

In the feedback control design of multivariable systems, closed loop performance evaluations must include the dynamic behavior of variables unavailable to the feedback controller. For the multivariable Nyquist array method, a set of sensitivity functions are proposed to simplify the adjustment of compensator parameters when the dynamic response of the unmeasurable output variables is unacceptable. A sensitivity study to improve thrust and turbine temperature responses for the Pratt-Whitney F100 turbofan engine demonstrates the utility of the proposed method.

Leininger, G. G.↗

Multivariable control altitude demonstration on the F100 turbofan engine

The control system designed under the Multivariable Control Synthesis (MVCS) program for the F100 turbofan engine is described. The MVCS program, applied the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) synthesis methods in the design of a multivariable engine control system to obtain enhanced performance from cross-coupled controls, maximum use of engine variable geometry, and a systematic design procedure that can be applied efficiently to new engine systems. Basic components of the control system, a reference value generator for deriving a desired equilibrium state and an approximate control vector, a transition model to produce compatible reference point trajectories during gross transients, gain schedules for producing feedback terms appropriate to the flight condition, and integral switching logic to produce acceptable steady-state performance without engine operating limit exceedance are described and the details of the F100 implementation presented. The engine altitude test phase of the MVCS program, and engine responses in a variety of test operating points and power transitions are presented.

Lehtinen, B.↗

Analysis techniques for multivariate root loci

Analysis and techniques are developed for the multivariable root locus and the multivariable optimal root locus. The generalized eigenvalue problem is used to compute angles and sensitivities for both types of loci, and an algorithm is presented that determines the asymptotic properties of the optimal root locus.

Thompson, P. M.↗

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Multivariable identification using centralized fixed modes

A procedure to determine a state space model of a multivariable system (lambda inputs, m outputs) is presented. The model is suitable for control studies and uses single input, single output (SISO) system data in the identification procedure. The procedure can be defined in three distinct steps. First, the system's lambda x m SISO transfer functions are identified by using any standard or known identification technique for SISO systems. One objective of this step is to identify SISO transfer functions with as few distinct modes as possible between any two functions. Second, the time domain realization of each SISO transfer function is obtained in a straightforward manner and combined into a total multivariable realization. This total realization, in all probability, has more state variables than are required to define system response. In the third step, these excess or redundant states are removed by using minimal realization theory. The remaining states are related to system centralized fixed modes. Eigenvalue-eigenvector techniques were recently reported that yield a computationally feasible solution to the problem posed in step three. The procedure is applied to QCSEE data to demonstrate its feasibility.

Merrill, W. C.↗

Design of multivariable feedback control systems via spectral assignment

Applied research in the area of spectral assignment in multivariable systems is reported. A frequency domain technique for determining the set of all stabilizing controllers for a single feedback loop multivariable system is described. It is shown that decoupling and tracking are achievable using this procedure. The technique is illustrated with a simple example.

Liberty, S. R.↗