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NASA NTRS1987

An approach to multivariable control of manipulators

The paper presents simple schemes for multivariable control of multiple-joint robot manipulators in joint and Cartesian coordinates. The joint control scheme consists of two independent multivariable feedforward and feedback controllers. The feedforward controller is the minimal inverse of the linearized model of robot dynamics and contains only proportional-double-derivative (PD2) terms - implying feedforward from the desired position, velocity and acceleration. This controller ensures that the manipulator joint angles track any reference trajectories. The feedback controller is of proportional-integral-derivative (PID) type and is designed to achieve pole placement. This controller reduces any initial tracking error to zero as desired and also ensures that robust steady-state tracking of step-plus-exponential trajectories is achieved by the joint angles. Simple and explicit expressions of computation of the feedforward and feedback gains are obtained based on the linearized model of robot dynamics. This leads to computationally efficient schemes for either on-line gain computation or off-line gain scheduling to account for variations in the linearized robot model due to changes in the operating point. The joint control scheme is extended to direct control of the end-effector motion in Cartesian space. Simulation results are given for illustration.

Seraji, H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation and Analysis of Opportunistic MSPA for Multiple Cubesat Deployments

We describe a software approach for simultaneous demodulation and decoding of multiple frequency- multiplexed spacecraft across multiple ground stations. The approach involves the use of a single ground antenna with wide enough aperture to receive multiple angularly adjacent spacecraft simultaneously. This technique uses a wide-band RF signal digitizer coupled with easily and cheaply duplicated software-receiver modules to independently process the frequency-channelized downlink signals from the spacecraft. This approach relaxes the need for realizable modems at each antenna, for example in the Deep-SpaceNetwork (DSN), and can also function as a delayed data retrieval method for cubesat missions with routine science data return. Thus, we hope that this solution can enable more efficient utilization of DSN assets. We concentrate on a simulation similar to the proposed Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) mission from a geometric perspective. To that end, the simulated scenario involves ten secondary cubesats deployed and tracked for a span of four days (the modeled motion over the first four days of the mission does not include any Trajectory Correction Maneuvers (TCMs) that may be necessary as the cubesats approach the moon). Transmissions from the cubesats may be received through a combination of DSN ground sites based on visibility. The cubesats are assumed to utilize typical cubesat transmit powers and a waveform similar to that of the Iris radio. One cubesat is chosen as the “target” and is considered tracked by all ground-stations throughout the simulation (i.e., it is consistently at the center of the main lobe of each ground station antenna when the ground station is in view of the cubesat in terms of elevation angle). The simulation effort involves synthesizing a wideband signal that includes the ten cubesats across a large bandwidth due to each cubesat having its own center-frequency in X-band, near 8.4 GHz. Each signal is characterized by its own Doppler-frequency shift and free-space path-loss computed through the underlying geometry of the simulation as well as the cubesat transmit power. Finally, each cubesat signal experiences a unique antenna gain at each ground station due to the underlying antenna pattern and spacecraft-ground station geometry. We establish two interesting findings: First, the link-budget for the EM-1-like scenario is almost completely limited by the angle between the center of the antenna main beam and the cubesat, which means that the signal-to-noise ratio is wholly adequate for demodulation and decoding at the simulated bitrates unless the cubesat exits the main beam. Secondly, and fortunately due to the use of a software radio architecture, we show that it is possible to successfully receive signals from most cubesats for the entire 4-day simulation. Due to the signal-to-noise ratio being sufficient for demodulation even after the side-lobe’s 17dB reduction in SNR, the software radio can still demodulate such cubesats as long as the radio is capable of re-establishing carrier lock as the cubesats leave the main beam and enter the side-lobe. Considering that the target application utilizes offline processing, a loss of lock can be detected and lock can be re-established by iterating over the data. Extensive simulations demonstrate these results.

Abraham, Douglas S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Particle trajectory representation learning with masked point modeling

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) offer millimeter-scale 3D images of particle trajectories, enabling precision studies of neutrino oscillation, detection of supernova and solar neutrinos, searches for exotic dark matter, and proton decay. Current approaches utilize supervised machine learning models, requiring extensive simulations of particle physics and detector response that can introduce bias. Self-supervised learning (SSL), a machine learning approach that learns useful representations of unlabeled data from the data itself, has significantly advanced how large datasets are utilized for representation learning; however, its potential for applications to sensory data in high precision particle physics experiments remains largely unexplored. We introduce the Point-based liquid argon masked autoencoder (PoLAr-MAE), a self-supervised framework that learns physically meaningful representations directly from unlabeled LArTPC images. PoLAr-MAE achieves remarkable data efficiency for a point-level segmentation task, outperforming fully supervised methods in low data regimes. Linear classifiers on model outputs demonstrate robust performance across multiple downstream tasks. Our results position sensor-level SSL as a practical foundation model strategy for LArTPCs.

Young, Samuel [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of a feature selection algorithm in FARM to identify important state variables and time-invariant matrices

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) software module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids the HERON software module in the evaluation of the optimal dispatch for the different IES components. Set-point trajectories are required to meet limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, the hydrogen production rate, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To evaluate the feasibility of HERON generated set-points and to do so in an acceptable time, FARM employs reduced order models to represent the dynamic behavior of the systems to be dispatched. These surrogate models take the form of a linear dynamic system with sets of Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) matrices that are mapped to the system operating space. These matrices are derived from the trajectories of system state variables and system output variables during transients. The accuracy of LPV matrices depends on the selection of state variables. In previous reports, state variables were selected by adopting a complicated workflow requiring multiple software licenses and an advanced level of user expertise. In this report, a new workflow that automates the state variable selection process is presented. It significantly reduces the frequency of user interventions and does not require multiple software licenses. Each module in the new workflow is described in detail, and the input / output examples in each step of the workflow are provided. It was demonstrated that this workflow can greatly reduce the complexity of the state variable selection process, and that the updated FARM-Gamma and FARM-Delta validators can benefit from this workflow when solving the power dispatch problem of a representative IES test case. Finally, some code improvements that can further enhance the efficiency are suggested.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2019

Optimal Control within the Context of Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization

Multidisciplinary design, analysis and optimization involves modeling the interactions of complex systems across a variety of disciplines. The optimization of such systems can be a computationally expensive exercise with multiple levels of nested nonlinear solvers running under an optimizer.The application of optimal control in project development often involves performing trajectory optimization for fixed vehicle designs or parametric sweeps across some key vehicle properties.This information is then relayed to the subsystem design teams who update their designs and relay some bulk characteristics back to the trajectory optimization procedure.This iteration is then repeated until the design closes.However, with increasing interest in more tightly coupled systems, such as electric and hybrid-electric aircraft propulsion and boundary layer ingestion, this process is prone to ignore subtle coupling between vehicle subsystem designs and vehicle operation on a given mission.Integrating trajectory optimization into a tightly coupled multidisciplinary design procedure can be computationally prohibitive, depending on the complexity of the subsystem analyses and the optimal control technique applied.To address these issues a new optimal control software tool, Dymos, has been developed.Dymos is built upon NASA's OpenMDAO software and can leverage its capabilities to efficiently compute gradients for the optimization and optimize complex models in parallel on distributed memory systems.This report provides some explanation into the numerical methods employed in Dymos and provides several use cases that demonstrate its performance on traditional optimal control problems and improvements ino techniques have been used extensively in recent decades to solve a variety of optimal control problems, typically in the form of aerospace vehicle trajectory optimization.

pseudospectral↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Automatic Medium to High Fidelity Low-Thrust Global Trajectory Toolchain; EMTG-GMAT

Solving the global optimization, low-thrust, multiple-flyby interplanetary trajectory problem with high-fidelity dynamical models requires an unreasonable amount of computational resources. A better approach, and one that is demonstrated in this paper, is a multi-step process whereby the solution of the aforementioned problem is solved at a lower-fidelity and this solution is used as an initial guess for a higher-fidelity solver. The framework presented in this work uses two tools developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center: the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG) and the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). EMTG is a medium to medium-high fidelity low-thrust interplanetary global optimization solver, which now has the capability to automatically generate GMAT script files for seeding a high-fidelity solution using GMAT's local optimization capabilities. A discussion of the dynamical models as well as thruster and power modeling for both EMTG and GMAT are given in this paper. Current capabilities are demonstrated with examples that highlight the toolchains ability to efficiently solve the difficult low-thrust global optimization problem with little human intervention.

low thrust↗

DOE OSTI2020

Knock Mitigation Effectiveness of EGR across the Pressure-Temperature Domain

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) has been shown to enable efficiency improvements in SI engines through multiple different mechanisms, including decreasing the knock propensity at high load, which allows higher compression ratio. While many of the benefits of EGR are applicable to both low and high power density engines, including reductions in pumping work and improved specific heat ratio, the knock benefits and corresponding compression ratio increases have been limited to low power density naturally aspirated engines primarily intended for hybrid vehicle architectures. An earlier study [1] indicated that there may be a kinetic limitation for the ability of EGR to mitigate knock under these conditions, but that study only considered a small number of conditions. In this investigation, we expand on that study while also providing data for model validation for the new light-duty combustion consortium from the U.S. Department of Energy: Partnership for Advancing Combustion Engines (PACE). In this investigation, the effectiveness of EGR to mitigate knock is studied with regards to the effect of engine speed (1,500 and 3,000 rpm), changing trajectory in the pressure-temperature domain by varying the intake manifold temperature (35, 60, and 90 deg C), and by considering the effect of minor species by studying the effect of untreated EGR vs. EGR that has been treated by an automotive three-way catalyst. Additionally, to increase the relevance of these data for future modeling studies, the performance of the full boiling range gasoline was compared relative to a surrogate formulation. The study found that the fuel surrogate performs well, confirmed the kinetic limitations of EGR to mitigate knock under boost, and showed improvements in EGR performance with catalyzed EGR.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multiple Uplinks Per Antenna (MUPA) Signal Acquisition Schemes

The Deep Space Network (DSN) currently makes use of the technique of Multiple Spacecraft per Antenna (MSPA) where a single antenna is used to track multiple spacecraft downlinks within its beam, such as in the case of multiple spacecraft orbiting Mars at 8.4 GHz (X-band). It is desired to extend this technique to the uplink where a single station is used to send a signal to multiple spacecraft in order to make more efficient use of ground resources. This would be applicable to numerous smallsat constellations being considered for future missions or to future spacecraft at Venus, Mars, or more distant destinations that are all within the half-power beamwidth of a single 34-m diameter antenna. In one scheme, each spacecraft’s command sequences would be time multiplexed onto a single uplink frequency. Each spacecraft would lock onto the uplink signal and would accept only commands intended for it via special identifier codes. Each spacecraft would also emit a downlink signal to the ground that is coherent with the uplink signal but would have its own allocated frequency channel and identifier information. A couple of key challenges associated with using this technique need to be addressed. Because of the single uplink frequency, coherent turnaround for two-way Doppler and ranging would not conform to established ratios, thus the radios employed by the spacecraft would need to be capable of variable turnaround ratios. In addition, because of the different orbits or spacecraft trajectories, the relative Doppler shifts and rates can be large with respect to the common uplink signal whose frequency would lie at the centroid of the frequencies of the expected received signals of the constellation. This would be problematic with standard analog spacecraft radios whose acquisition bandwidths are relatively small (~1.7 kHz) relative to the large frequency offsets (~100 kHz) expected using the single frequency uplink technique. With the advent of software defined radios (SDRs), signal frequency search algorithms can be utilized within the flight software and/or programmable hardware (e.g., FPGAs) that can easily acquire and track signals with large frequency offsets and varying dynamics. Such techniques could include FFT search algorithms, step-and-sweep search algorithms, or onboard frequency steering making use of trajectory vectors uplinked to each member spacecraft. Other challenges include mitigation of potential interference between received signals. We have identified several software defined radios that are in different stages of development and whose key parameters have been tabulated. We have examined each radio’s capabilities with respect to acquiring and tracking signals with large frequency offsets. Such analyses made use of previous studies supplemented with specially designed tests using both simulation tools and/or existing testbeds. We have compared signal acquisition times computed from provided algorithms along with measured values derived from tests using existing hardware and simulation tools for the purpose of conducting tradeoff studies between the various radio designs and software/firmware programming approaches.

Abraham, Douglas S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Method of Optimal Control for Class 8 Vehicle Platoons Over Hilly Terrain

This work develops and implements an NMPC control system to facilitate fuel-optimal platooning of Class 8 vehicles over challenging terrain. Prior research has shown that Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC), which allows multiple Class 8 vehicles to follow in close succession, can save between 3 and 8% in overall fuel consumption on flat terrain. However, on more challenging terrain, e.g. rolling hills, platooning vehicles can experience diminished fuel savings, and, in some cases, an increase in fuel consumption relative to individual vehicle operation. This research explores the use of Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) with predefined route grade profiles to allow platooning vehicles to generate an optimal velocity trajectory with respect to fuel consumption. In order to successfully implement the NMPC system, a model relating vehicle velocity to fuel consumption was generated and validated using experimental data. Additionally, the predefined route grade profiles were created by using the vehicle's GPS velocity over the desired terrain. The real-time NMPC system was then implemented on a two-truck platoon operating over challenging terrain, with a reference vehicle running individually. The results from NMPC platooning are compared against fuel results from a classical proportional-integral-derivative (PID) headway control method. Furthermore, this comparison yields the comparative fuel savings and energy efficiency benefit of NMPC system. In the final analysis, significant fuel savings of greater than 14 and 20% were seen for the lead and following vehicles relative to their respective traditional cruise control and platooning architectures.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Measurement of CPAS Main Parachute Rate of Descent

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is being designed to land the Orion Crew Module (CM) at a safe rate of descent at splashdown. Flight test performance must be measured to a high degree of accuracy to ensure this requirement is met with the most efficient design possible. Although the design includes three CPAS Main parachutes, the requirement is that the system must not exceed 33 ft/s under two Main parachutes, should one of the Main parachutes fail. Therefore, several tests were conducted with clusters of two Mains. All of the steady-state rate of descent data are normalized to standard sea level conditions and checked against the limit. As the Orion design gains weight, the system is approaching this limit to within measurement precision. Parachute "breathing," cluster interactions, and atmospheric anomalies can cause the rate of descent to vary widely and lead to challenges in characterizing parachute terminal performance. An early test had contradictory rate of descent results from optical trajectory and Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS). A thorough analysis of the data sources and error propagation was conducted to determine the uncertainty in the trajectory. It was discovered that the Time Space Position Information (TSPI) from the optical tracking provided accurate position data. However, the velocity from TPSI must be computed via numerical differentiation, which is prone to large error. DGPS obtains position through pseudo-range calculations from multiple satellites and velocity through Doppler shift of the carrier frequency. Because the velocity from DGPS is a direct measurement, it is more accurate than TSPI velocity. To remedy the situation, a commercial off-the-shelf product that combines GPS and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) was purchased to significantly improve rate of descent measurements. This had the added benefit of solving GPS dropouts during aircraft extraction. Statistical probability distributions for CPAS Main parachute rate of descent and drag coefficient were computed and plotted. Using test data, a terminal rate of descent at splashdown can be estimated as a function of canopy loading.

Ray, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Improved Collision-Detection Method for Robotic Manipulator

An improved method has been devised for the computational prediction of a collision between (1) a robotic manipulator and (2) another part of the robot or an external object in the vicinity of the robot. The method is intended to be used to test commanded manipulator trajectories in advance so that execution of the commands can be stopped before damage is done. The method involves utilization of both (1) mathematical models of the robot and its environment constructed manually prior to operation and (2) similar models constructed automatically from sensory data acquired during operation. The representation of objects in this method is simpler and more efficient (with respect to both computation time and computer memory), relative to the representations used in most prior methods. The present method was developed especially for use on a robotic land vehicle (rover) equipped with a manipulator arm and a vision system that includes stereoscopic electronic cameras. In this method, objects are represented and collisions detected by use of a previously developed technique known in the art as the method of oriented bounding boxes (OBBs). As the name of this technique indicates, an object is represented approximately, for computational purposes, by a box that encloses its outer boundary. Because many parts of a robotic manipulator are cylindrical, the OBB method has been extended in this method to enable the approximate representation of cylindrical parts by use of octagonal or other multiple-OBB assemblies denoted oriented bounding prisms (OBPs), as in the example of Figure 1. Unlike prior methods, the OBB/OBP method does not require any divisions or transcendental functions; this feature leads to greater robustness and numerical accuracy. The OBB/OBP method was selected for incorporation into the present method because it offers the best compromise between accuracy on the one hand and computational efficiency (and thus computational speed) on the other hand.

Leger, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Launch System Payload Stage Capability for Ultra-High Characteristic Energy Missions

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is NASA’s cornerstone capability for a new era of human and robotic exploration of deep space. The unrivalled performance of SLS provides the capability to launch the first woman and next man to walk on the lunar surface and to support development of a sustained human presence in cislunar space, and ultimately human missions to Mars. As an evolvable capability with unique launch performance, the opportunities enabled by SLS also include game-changing benefits for science missions, including probes to the outer solar system and beyond. For the last two years, the SLS Program has worked with the Interstellar Probe team at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory(APL) to provide data that describe how SLS could support a mission that would break through the boundary of the heliosphere and into pristine interstellar space only a decade after launch, enabling earlier science return and greatly increasing spacecraft life in the interstellar medium. In record-breaking time, the ISP as launched on SLS may answer questions raised by the extended mission of NASA’s Voyager spacecraft. While SLS and its efficient Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) offer benefits for exploration of the outer planets, adding one or more additional stages to this architecture makes it even more capable for missions beyond our solar system, offering more realistically appealing flight times that would allow the mission scientists to reap the rewards of exploration. During the time the SLS Program has been working with the Interstellar Probe team, it has identified an expedited path to the Block 2 capability planned for the Interstellar Probe mission, and further matured performance numbers for diverse multi-stage configurations using a combination of commercially available liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX) upper stages and solid motor kick stages. That work has demonstrated the SLS payload stage capability provides significant benefits and opens trade space for multiple missions in consideration during planning for the next Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey. This presentation details the significant benefits SLS can provides for very high characteristic (C3) energy missions by coupling the capabilities of SLS to current commercial rocket propulsion stage systems. These capabilities are explored specifically in the context of an Interstellar Probe architecture in which a small, capable science probe, coupled with carefully tailored mission design trajectories, could be used to explore the outer solar system and the interstellar medium. The presentation will also address the operational logistics of integrating such a mission, explaining the options available for “non-standard” SLS payloads, including processing those with radioisotope power generators or additional propulsion stages. An SLS system overview and capabilities will be presented, along with vehicle configuration and orbit performance capability studies, explaining how SLS is enabling for a variety of high-energy science mission profiles, including launching an exploratory probe bound for interstellar space only a decade after launch.

Rob Stough↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstrating Early-Adopter Benefits of Submitting Multiple Trajectory Options for Airlines

A workshop at NASA Ames Research Center was held with airline industry stakeholders to demonstrate the impact of using Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) during a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) for severe weather operations. The demonstration was conducted using apart-task Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, which is an air traffic management method that uses CTOP to deliver preconditioned traffic to the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) region. The demonstration addressed the following research objectives: first, determine who receives a greater benefit, TOS-participating or TOS-excluded airlines? Second, determine which method of trajectory selection yields a better solution, human/manual selection or automation? Finally, obtain feedback from stakeholders on their impression of the concept and recommendations for future work. The results showed that TOS-participating airlines received greater benefit in terms of total ground delay, ground delay savings, number of reroute options, and additional flight time, compared to TOS-excluded airlines. However, this result was dependent on the situational context, such as the number and location of flights. We found that all airlines benefitted when just a subset of airlines submitted TOS, but the greatest benefit went to the TOS-participating airlines. These benefits to the TOS-participating airlines were diminished as the number of TOS-participants in the system increased. Therefore, there was an “early-adopter” effect that suggested airlines could benefit by becoming the first to equip TOS without causing unfair disadvantages to those who do not equip TOS. In addition, we found that manual selection of trajectory options performed similarly to CTOP, but the CTOP solution was more efficient in terms of number of reroutes, additional flight time, and average ground delay for rerouted flights. Feedback from the stakeholders was solicited, and their overall impressions of the demonstrations were positive. They remarked that CTOP could do a better job than current day solutions, and they thought airlines could benefit from continuing to develop TOS capabilities.

Integrated Demand Management↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Distributed Trajectory-Oriented Approach to Managing Traffic Complexity

In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which ground-based service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. While its architecture becomes more distributed, the goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system remains to achieve objectives such as maintaining safety and efficiency. It is, therefore, critical to design appropriate control elements to ensure that aircraft and groundbased actions result in achieving these objectives without unduly restricting user-preferred trajectories. This paper presents a trajectory-oriented approach containing two such elements. One is a trajectory flexibility preservation function, by which aircraft plan their trajectories to preserve flexibility to accommodate unforeseen events. And the other is a trajectory constraint minimization function by which ground-based agents, in collaboration with air-based agents, impose just-enough restrictions on trajectories to achieve ATM objectives, such as separation assurance and flow management. The underlying hypothesis is that preserving trajectory flexibility of each individual aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by minimizing constraints without jeopardizing the intended ATM objectives. The paper presents conceptually how the two functions operate in a distributed control architecture that includes self separation. The paper illustrates the concept through hypothetical scenarios involving conflict resolution and flow management. It presents a functional analysis of the interaction and information flow between the functions. It also presents an analytical framework for defining metrics and developing methods to preserve trajectory flexibility and minimize its constraints. In this framework flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and the impact of constraints is illustrated through analysis of a trajectory solution space with limited degrees of freedom and in simple constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving a conflict.

Idris, Husni↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study

The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗