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At least 127 records · Page 7

Wheat forecast economics effect study

A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Remote Thermal IR Spectroscopy of our Solar System

Indirect methods to detect extrasolar planets have been successful in identifying a number of stars with companion planets. No direct detection of an extrasolar planet has yet been reported. Spectroscopy in the thermal infrared region provides a potentially powerful approach to detection and characterization of planets and planetary systems. We can use knowledge of our own solar system, its planets and their atmospheres to model spectral characteristics of planets around other stars. Spectra derived from modeling our own solar system seen from an extrasolar perspective can be used to constrain detection strategies, identification of planetary class (terrestrial vs. gaseous) and retrieval of chemical, thermal and dynamical information. Emission from planets in our solar system peaks in the thermal infrared region, approximately 10 - 30 microns, substantially displaced from the maximum of the much brighter solar emission in the visible near 0.5 microns. This fact provides a relatively good contrast ratio to discriminate between stellar (solar) and planetary emission and optimize the delectability of planetary spectra. Important molecular constituents in planetary atmospheres have rotational-vibrational spectra in the thermal infrared region. Spectra from these molecules have been well characterized in the laboratory and studied in the atmospheres of solar system planets from ground-based and space platforms. The best example of such measurements are the studies with Fourier transform spectrometers, the Infrared Interferometer Spectrometers (IRIS), from spacecraft: Earth observed from NIMBUS 8, Mars observed from Mariner 9, and the outer planets observed from Voyager spacecraft. An Earth-like planet is characterized by atmospheric spectra of ozone, carbon dioxide, and water. Terrestrial planets have oxidizing atmospheres which are easily distinguished from reducing atmospheres of gaseous giant planets which lack oxygen-bearing species and are characterized by spectra containing hydrocarbons such as methane and ethane. Spectroscopic information on extrasolar planets thus can permit their classification. Spectra and spectral lines contain information on the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Line and band spectra can be used to identify the molecular constituents and retrieve species abundances, thereby classifying and characterizing the planet. At high enough spectral resolution characteristic planetary atmospheric dynamics and unique phenomena such as failure of local thermodynamic equilibrium can be identified. Dynamically induced effects such as planetary rotation and orbital velocity shift and change the shape of spectral features and must be modeled in detailed spectral studies. We will use our knowledge of the compositional, thermal and dynamical characteristics of planetary atmospheres in our own solar system to model spectra observed remotely on similar planets in extrasolar planetary systems. We will use a detailed radiative transfer and beam integration program developed for the modeling and interpretation of thermal infrared spectra measured from nearby planet planets to generate models of an extra-solar "Earth" and "Jupiter". From these models we will show how key spectral features distinguish between terrestrial and gaseous planets, what information can be obtained with different spectral resolution, what spectral features can be used to search for conditions for biogenic activity, and how dynamics and distance modify the observed spectra. We also will look at unique planetary phenomena such as atmospheric lasing and discuss their utility as probes for detection and identification of planets. Results of such studies will provide information to constrain design for instrumentation needed to directly detect extrasolar planets.

Kostiuk, Theodor↗

A model for the proton spectrum and cosmic ray anisotropy

The problem of the origin of the cosmic rays is still uncertain. As a theory, it should explain the support of particles and energy, the mechanism of acceleration and propagation as well as some important features obtained directly from cosmic ray experiments, such as the power spectrum and the knee. There are two kinds of models for interpreting the knee of the cosmic ray spectrum. One is the leaky box model. Another model suggests that the cut-off rigidity of the main sources causes the knee. The present paper studies the spectrum and the anisotropy of cosmic rays in an isotropic diffuse model with explosive discrete sources in an infinite galaxy.

Xu, C.↗

GRB 120422A: a Low-Luminosity Gamma-Ray Burst Driven by a Central Engine

GRB 120422A is a low-luminosity gamma-ray burst (GRB) associated with a bright supernova, which distinguishesitself by its relatively short T(sub 90) (approximately 5 s) and an energetic and steep-decaying X-ray tail. We analyze the Swift BurstAlert Telescope and X-ray Telescope data and discuss the physical implications. We show that the steep declineearly in the X-ray light curve can be interpreted as the curvature tail of a late emission episode around 58-86 s,with a curved instantaneous spectrum at the end of the emission episode. Together with the main activity in thefirst 20 s and the weak emission from 40 s to 60 s, the prompt emission is variable, which points to a centralengine origin in contrast to a shock-breakout origin, which is used to interpret some other nearby low-luminosity supernova GRBs. Both the curvature effect model and interpreting the early shallow decay as the coasting externalforward shock emission in a wind medium provide a constraint on the bulk Lorentz factor to be around several.Comparing the properties ofGRB 120422A and other supernova GRBs,we find that themain criterion to distinguish engine-driven GRBs from shock-breakout GRBs is the time-averaged -ray luminosity. Engine-driven GRBs likelyhave a luminosity above approximately 10(sup 48) erg s(sup -1).

engine↗

Interpretation of postseismic deformation with a viscoelastic relaxation model

A viscoelastic relaxation model is used to interpret postseismic surface deformation for the large-magnitude Aleutian earthquakes of 1957 and 1965. The lithosphere and asthenosphere are modeled as elastic solids with an anomalous viscoelastic inclusion below the island arc volcanoes. It is found that the observed postseismic surface deformation is a corollary of the known island arc structure. A satisfactory fit to the uplift following the 1957 earthquake is found for a viscoelastic volume with 80-km width extending from a depth of 50 to 200 km.

Wahr, J.↗

The 5 Hour Pulse Period and Broadband Spectrum of the Symbiotic X-Ray Binary 3A 1954+319

We present an analysis of the highly variable accreting X-ray pulsar 3A 1954+319 using 2005-2009 monitoring data obtained with INTEGRAL and Swift. This considerably extends the pulse period history and covers flaring episodes in 2005 and 2008. In 2006 the source was identified as one of only a few known symbiotic X-ray binaries, Le" systems composed of a neutron star accreting from the inhomogeneous medium around an M-giant star. The extremely long pulse period of approximately 5.3 h is directly visible in the 2008 INTEGRAL-ISGRI outburst light curve. The pulse profile is double peaked and not significantly energy dependent. During the outburst a strong spin-up of -1.8 x 10(exp -4) h h(exp -1) occurred. Between 2005 and 2008 a long term spin-down trend of 2.1 x 10(exp -5) h h(exp -1) was observed for the first time for this source. The 3-80 keV pulse peak spectrum of 3A 1954+319 during the 2008 flare could be well described by a thermal Comptonization model. We interpret the results within the framework of a recently developed quasi-spherical accretion model for symbiotic X-ray binaries.

Marcu, Diana M.↗

Relationships of soil, grass, and bedrock over the Kaweah serpentine melange through spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS data

A linear mixing model is used to model the spectral variability of an AVIRIS scene from the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada and calibrate these radiance data to reflectance. Five spectral endmembers from the AVIRIS data, plus an ideal 'shade' endmember were required to model the continuum reflectance of each pixel in the image. Three of the endmembers were interpreted to model the surface constituents green vegetation, dry grass, and illumination. These are the main transient surface constituents that are expected to change with shifts in land use or climatic influences and viewing conditions ('shade' only). The spectral distinction between the other three endmembers is very small, yet the spatial distributions are coherent and interpretable. These distributions cross anthropogenic and vegetation boundaries and are best interpreted as different soil types. Comparison of the fraction images to the bedrock geology maps indicates that substrate composition must be a factor contributing to the spectral properties of these endmembers. Detailed examination of the reflectance spectra of the three soil endmembers reveals that differences in the amount of ferric and ferrous iron and/or organic constituents in the soils is largely responsible for the differences in spectral properties of these endmembers.

Mustard, John F.↗

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous and mountainous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

Manuel Helbig↗

Relationships of soil, grass, and bedrock over the Kaweah Serpentinite Melange through spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS data

A linear mixing model is used to model the spectral variability of an AVIRIS scene from the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada and calibrate these radiance data to reflectance. Five spectral endmembers from the AVIRIS data, plus an ideal 'shade' endmember were required to model the continuum reflectance of each pixel in the image. Three of the endmembers were interpreted to model the surface constituents green vegetation, dry grass, and illumination. Comparison of the fraction images to the bedrock geology maps indicates that substrate composition must be a factor contributing to the spectral properties of these endmembers. Detailed examination of the reflectance spectra of the three soil endmembers reveals that differences in the amount of ferric and ferrous iron and/or organic constituents in the soils is largely responsible for the differences in spectral properties of these endmembers.

Mustard, John F.↗

Predicted distribution of visible and near-infrared radiant flux above and below a transmittant leaf

The effects are studied analytically of leaf size, leaf height, and background reflectance on the upward and downward radiant flux (RF) of a leaf. The leaf is horizontal and isotropically scattering in the computer model which examines the light environment in three regions about the leaf. The spectral properties of the leaf are based on measurements of the big-leaf maple, and the model is interpreted in terms of relative RF which is defined as a percentage of the total light in the model. The results demonstrate the dependence of upward relative RF on the light's wavelength and background reflectance with large variations in the NIR. Brightness varies directly with distance from background with maximum brightness achieved at lower heights for smaller leaves. These and other results suggest that NIR canopy reflectance due to leaves is highly dependent on the background reflectance.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

A relational metric, its application to domain analysis, and an example analysis and model of a remote sensing domain

An objective and quantitative method has been developed for deriving models of complex and specialized spheres of activity (domains) from domain-generated verbal data. The method was developed for analysis of interview transcripts, incident reports, and other text documents whose original source is people who are knowledgeable about, and participate in, the domain in question. To test the method, it is applied here to a report describing a remote sensing project within the scope of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The method has the potential to improve the designs of domain-related computer systems and software by quickly providing developers with explicit and objective models of the domain in a form which is useful for design. Results of the analysis include a network model of the domain, and an object-oriented relational analysis report which describes the nodes and relationships in the network model. Other products include a database of relationships in the domain, and an interactive concordance. The analysis method utilizes a newly developed relational metric, a proximity-weighted frequency of co-occurrence. The metric is applied to relations between the most frequently occurring terms (words or multiword entities) in the domain text, and the terms found within the contexts of these terms. Contextual scope is selectable. Because of the discriminating power of the metric, data reduction from the association matrix to the network is simple. In addition to their value for design. the models produced by the method are also useful for understanding the domains themselves. They can, for example, be interpreted as models of presence in the domain.

Mcgreevy, Michael W.↗

Interpretable Machine Learning for Molecular Biosignatures: a Novel Single-Sample Feature Importance Method That Is Sensitive To Statistical Interactions

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.

geochemistry↗

Introduction to Adjoint Models

In this lecture, some fundamentals of adjoint models will be described. This includes a basic derivation of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models from a parent nonlinear model, the interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity fields, a description of methods of automatic differentiation, and the use of adjoint models to solve various optimization problems, including singular vectors. Concluding remarks will attempt to correct common misconceptions about adjoint models and their utilization.

EnKF↗

Empirical convection models for northward IMF

It is clear that polar cap convection during times of northward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is more structured and of lower mean speed than at times of southward IMF. This, coupled with the fact that the polar cap is smaller, means that empirical models are more difficult to construct with certainty. It is also clear that sunward flow deep in the polar cap is often observed, but its connection with the rest of the flow pattern is controversial. At present, empirical models are of three types: 'statistical' models wherein data from different days but with similar IMF conditions are averaged together; 'pattern recognition' models, which are built up by examining individually hundreds of passes to derive a 'typical' pattern which embodies features frequently observed; and 'assimilative' models, which use data of different types and from as many locations as possible, but all taken at the same time, in order to derive a snapshot (or series of snapshots) of the entire pattern. Each type of model has its own difficulties. Statistical models, by their very nature, smooth out flow features (e.g. the convection reversal, and the locus of sunward flow deep in the polar cap) which are not found at precisely the same invariant latitudes and magnetic local times on different days. Pattern recognition models are better at reproducing small-scale features, but the large-scale pattern can be a matter of interpretation. Assimilative models (such as AMIE) hold out the best hope for creating instantaneous, global convection patterns; however, the analysis technique tends to be most irregular (and least reliable) in the regions which are not well covered by in situ data. It appears that, at least at times, a four cell model with sunward flow at the highest and lowest latitudes, and antisunward flow in between, is consistent with the observations. At other times, the observations may be consistent with a two-cell convection pattern, but which includes significant meanders within the polar cap.

Moses, Julie J.↗

Multiresolutional models of uncertainty generation and reduction

Kolmogorov's axiomatic principles of the probability theory, are reconsidered in the scope of their applicability to the processes of knowledge acquisition and interpretation. The model of uncertainty generation is modified in order to reflect the reality of engineering problems, particularly in the area of intelligent control. This model implies algorithms of learning which are organized in three groups which reflect the degree of conceptualization of the knowledge the system is dealing with. It is essential that these algorithms are motivated by and consistent with the multiresolutional model of knowledge representation which is reflected in the structure of models and the algorithms of learning.

Meystel, A.↗

Age and provenance of the target materials for tektites and possible impactites as inferred from Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr systematics

Chemical, trace element, and isotopic compositions of tektites are consistent with production by melting of sediments derived from the old terrestrial continental crust. Each tektite group is characterized by a uniform Nd model age, interpreted as the time of formation of the crustal segment which weathered to form the parent sediment for the tektites. Sr model ages are variable within each group, reflecting Rb-Sr fractionation, and, in the favorable limit of very high Rb/Sr ratios, approach the time of sedimentation of the parent material which melted to form the tektites. Unlike tektites, which are dense homogeneous objects, sanidine spherules are porous, fine grained inhomogeneous objects. The leaching experiment employed by the present study shows that the sanidine spherules could have been formed by an oceanic impact involving basaltic crust and overlying sediments or seawater.

Shaw, H. F.↗

Ground-based grasslands data to support remote sensing and ecosystem modeling of terrestrial primary production

Estimating terrestrial net primary production (NPP) using remote-sensing tools and ecosystem models requires adequate ground-based measurements for calibration, parameterization, and validation. These data needs were strongly endorsed at a recent meeting of ecosystem modelers organized by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program's (IGBP's) Data and Information System (DIS) and its Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling (GAIM) Task Force. To meet these needs, a multinational, multiagency project is being coordinated by the IGBP DIS to compile existing NPP data from field sites and to regionalize NPP point estimates to various-sized grid cells. Progress at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on compiling NPP data for grasslands as part of the IGBP DIS data initiative is described. Site data and associated documentation from diverse field studies are being acquired for selected grasslands and are being reviewed for completeness, consistency, and adequacy of documentation, including a description of sampling methods. Data are being compiled in a database with spatial, temporal, and thematic characteristics relevant to remote sensing and global modeling. NPP data are available from the ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for biogeochemical dynamics. The ORNL DAAC is part of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System, of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Olson, R. J.↗

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗