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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Signal Decomposition for Intrusion Detection in Reliability Assessment in Cyber Resilience (Summary Report)

The complexity of assuring cyber resilience for physical process interactions in connected systems such as energy grids increases dramatically as the coupling between processes becomes more direct and responsive. An example of this growing complexity is provided by Integrated Energy Systems (IES), in which various processes such as nuclear heat generation and commodity production are being directly coupled for increased responsiveness to highly variable signals such as market pricing or electricity demand. As such, the potential attack surface of the coupled processes is larger than the two processes independently. Securing these complex systems requires two-fold monitoring: cybersecure monitoring for potential malicious incursion, and physics monitoring for system tampering. Physics monitoring includes analyzing the behavior of the signals within the system for anomalous behavior. This analysis has been shown to be insufficient if approached by only data-driven machine learning and artificial intelligence (MLAI) techniques or only low-level model comparison. Previous efforts at Purdue University suggested combining high-fidelity models with MLAI algorithms as a basis for a software tool for detecting anomalies in physical processes. This work built on that suggestion, developing an advanced library for signal decomposition and analysis using both MLAI and high-fidelity physics algorithms for greatly improved anomaly detection, especially false data injection. This software can be used as part of a secure imbedded intelligence (SEI) system designed under Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) for complex coupled systems. This library established a foundation for online and posteriori analysis of digital signals for the purpose of detecting potential malicious tampering in digital signals representing physical processes. Demonstrations carried out throughout the development highlight the effective use of characterization algorithms to detect signal perturbations, particularly triangle attack-style perturbations, in three wide-ranging applications: seismic monitoring, nuclear thermal hydraulics system simulation, and custom manufacturing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-order aquifer thermal energy storage model for geothermal system simulation

This paper presents a low-order aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) model for simulation of combined subsurface and above-surface energy systems. The model is included in the Modelica IBPSA Library, which is a free open-source library with basic models for building and district energy and control systems. The model uses a lumped-component method, in which the transient conductive-convective heat and mass transfer equation is radially discretized. To verify the accuracy of the model, we present an inter-model comparison from a simulation test suite. Results show that the Modelica ATES model is in good agreement, with a normalized mean bias error for yearly variation of aquifer temperatures of 1.6×10−2 and 9×10−5 at 1 m and 10 m distance from the well.

Maccarini, Alessandro↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determination of the vacancy distribution over Al cation sites in γ-Al 2 O 3

Although gamma-alumina (γ-Al 2 O 3 ) is an extensively used material with wide-ranging applications due to its inherently high surface area and acidity, its atomic structure is still not fully understood. γ-Al 2 O 3 is described as having a spinel-like structure, where the O sublattice has a face-centered cubic (FCC) arrangement and Al cations are placed in the spinel tetrahedral and octahedral interstitial sites. Achieving the correct stoichiometry of Al 2 O 3 , however, requires the introduction of Al vacancies into some of the interstitial sites. Despite the importance of accurately describing the structure of γ-Al 2 O 3 , the distribution of vacancies between tetrahedral and octahedral sites remains unclear, in part because of the usually poor crystalline quality of γ-Al 2 O 3 that has often been used in previous studies. To determine the actual cation distribution in γ-Al 2 O 3 , single-crystalline γ-Al 2 O 3 was investigated using a correlative approach of experimental and simulated selected-area electron diffraction (SAED) and high-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS). Comparison of the reflection intensities in single-crystal SAED to simulated SAED from models with varied vacancy distributions revealed that vacancies exist primarily on tetrahedral sites, contrary to the placement of vacancies on octahedral sites proposed in several common models. Comparison of EELS spectra—acquired with the highest energy resolution reported so far for γ-Al 2 O 3 —with ab initio multiple scattering EELS simulations confirmed the distribution of vacancies on tetrahedral sites. These results enable more accurate modeling of γ-Al 2 O 3 to better predict its properties in existing and future applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-size and cluster dynamics modeling of intra-granular fission gas bubbles in UO 2

For this work, we perform simulations of intra-granular fission gas bubble evolution in UO 2 using both a relatively simple, computationally inexpensive single-size model and a detailed cluster dynamics model. Simulations encompass 36 experimental cases from 4 different databases, covering various temperature and burnup levels. We systematically compare results from the two models to each other and to post-irradiation experimental data of bubble average size and number density. Overall, the model-to-model comparisons reveal an excellent agreement across the set of simulations. This outcome indicates that, in spite of the underlying assumptions, the single-size model provides a good approximation of the complex physical behavior that is more rigorously described by the cluster dynamics model. Qualitatively, both models reproduce the trends of the experimental data with temperature and burnup correctly. Quantitatively, calculated results are either in good agreement with the data or within errors that appear consistent with the inherent uncertainties. Moreover, for the single-size model, we demonstrate and assess a multiscale approach whereby values for the fission gas atom diffusion coefficient from separate atomistic calculations are used. Systematic comparisons to experimental data point out a credible accuracy of the multiscale model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Value of abstraction in performance assessment – When is a higher level of detail necessary?

In this study, different approaches in performance assessment (PA) of the long-term safety of a repository for radioactive waste were examined. This investigation was carried out as part of the DECOVALEX-2023 project, an international collaborative effort for research and model comparison. One specific task of the DECOVALEX-2023 project was the Salt Performance Assessment Modelling task (Salt PA), which aimed at comparing various models and methods employed in the performance assessment of deep geological repositories in salt. In the context of the Salt PA task, three distinct teams from SNL (United States), Quintessa Ltd (United Kingdom), and GRS (Germany) examined the consequences of employing different levels of abstractions when modelling the repository's geometry and implementing various features and processes, using the example of a simple hypothetical repository structure in domal salt. Each team applied their own tools: PFLOTRAN (SNL), QPAC (Quintessa) and LOPOS (GRS). These differ essentially regarding numerical concept and degree of detail in the representation of the underlying physical processes. The discussion focused on when simplifications can be appropriately applied and what consequences result from them. Furthermore, it was explored when and if a higher level of fidelity in geometry or physical processes is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Update to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Baseline Wind Turbine Controller

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW wind turbine model is well established as an industry standard and is often used as a comparison model, or a model on which to build upon. Though effective, the legacy controller for the 5-MW wind turbine uses a simple algorithm that is not up to date with many industry standards. Additionally, as the research community has advanced into fast-paced development cycles, as systems engineering tools such as Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM ®) [1] are employed, and as a greater focus on controls co-design practices is encouraged, demand for a generic wind turbine controller has arisen. This work presents updates for the NREL 5-MW controller to a more modern control architecture, and establishes a generic tuning framework that can be easily adapted to various wind turbines. Based on initial results, the updated generic controller eases the automatic tuning process while maintaining or improving the performance of the legacy NREL 5-MW controller.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Update to the NREL Baseline Wind Turbine Controller: Preprint

The NREL 5MW wind turbine model is well established as an industry standard and is often used as a comparison model, or a model on which to build upon. Though effective, the legacy controller for the NREL 5MW wind turbine is built on a simple algorithm that is not up to date with many industry standards. Additionally, as the research community has advanced into more fast-paced development cycles, as systems engineering tools such as WISDEM \cite{WISDEM} are employed, and as a greater focus on controls co-design practices is encouraged, a demand for a generic wind turbine controller has arisen. This work presents updates for the NREL 5MW baseline controller to a more modern control architecture, and establishes a generic tuning framework that can be easily adapted to various wind turbines. Based on initial results, the updated generic controller eases the automatic tuning process, while maintaining or improving upon the performance of the legacy NREL 5MW controller.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A critical assessment of solutions to the galaxy diversity problem

Galactic rotation curves exhibit a diverse range of inner slopes. Observational data indicates that explaining this diversity may require a mechanism that correlates a galaxy's surface brightness with the central-most region of its dark matter halo. Here, in this work, we compare several concrete models that capture the relevant physics required to explain the galaxy diversity problem. We focus specifically on a Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) model with an isothermal core and two Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models with/without baryonic feedback. In contrast to the CDM case, the SIDM model can lead to the formation of an isothermal core in the halo, and is also mostly insensitive to baryonic feedback processes, which act on longer time-scales. Using rotation curves from 90 galaxies in the Spitzer Photometry & Accurate Rotation Curves (SPARC) catalog, we perform a comprehensive model comparison that addresses issues of statistical methodology from prior works. The best-fit halo models that we recover are consistent with standard CDM concentration-mass and abundance matching relations. We find that both the SIDM and feedback-affected CDM models are better than a CDM model with no feedback in explaining the rotation curves of low and high surface brightness galaxies in the sample. However, when compared to each other, there is no strong statistical preference for either the SIDM or the feedback-affected CDM halo model as the source of galaxy diversity in the SPARC catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Abstract The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO 2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Low-Altitude Atmospheric Turbulence Models for Aircraft Aeroelasticity

We investigate the dynamic aeroelastic response of large but slow aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von Kármán model, the two-dimensional Kaimal model and full three-dimensional wind fields extracted from large-eddy simulations (LES) are used to simulate ambient turbulence near the ground. Load calculations and flight trajectory predictions are conducted for a representative high-aspect-ratio wing aircraft, using a fully coupled nonlinear flight dynamics/aeroelastic model, when it operates in background atmospheric turbulence generated by the aforementioned models. Comparison of load envelopes and spectral content, on vehicles of varying flexibility, shows strong dependency between the selected turbulence model and aircraft aeroelastic response (e.g. 58% difference in the predicted magnitude of the wing root bending moment between LES and von Kármán models). This is mainly due to the presence of large flow structures at low altitudes that have comparable dimensions to the vehicle, and which despite the relatively small wind speeds within the Earth boundary layer, result in overall high load events for slow-moving vehicles. Results show that one-dimensional models that do not capture those effects provide fairly non-conservative load estimates and are unsuitable for very flexible airframe design.

atmospheric turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primary and secondary ice production: interactions and their relative importance

A discrepancy of up to 5 orders of magnitude between ice crystal and ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentrations was found in the measurements, indicating the potentially important role of secondary ice production (SIP) in the clouds. However, the interactions between primary and SIP processes and their relative importance remain unexplored. In this study, we implemented five different ice nucleation schemes as well as physical representations of SIP processes (i.e., droplet shattering during rain freezing, ice-ice collisional break-up, and rime splintering) in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We ran CESM2 in the single column mode for model comparisons with the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations. We found that the model experiments with aerosol-aware ice nucleation schemes and SIP processes yield the best simulation results for the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We further investigated the relative importance of ice nucleation and SIP to ice number and cloud phase as well as interactions between ice nucleation and SIP in the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. Our results show that SIP contributes 80 % to the total ice formation and transforms ~30 % of pure liquid-phase clouds simulated in the model experiments without considering SIP into mixed-phase clouds. The SIP is not only a result of ice crystals produced from ice nucleation, but also competes with the ice nucleation by reducing the number concentrations of cloud droplets and cloud-borne dust INPs. Conversely, strong ice nucleation also suppresses SIP by glaciating mixed-phase clouds and thereby reducing the amount of precipitation particles (rain and graupel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Simplified Numerical Approach to Characterize the Thermal Response of a Moving Bed Solar Reactor

Abstract Concentrated solar thermochemical storage in the form of a zero-emission fuel is a promising option to produce long-duration energy storage. Solar fuel is produced using a cavity reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field of heliostats. In this paper, heat transfer model of a tubular plug-flow reactor designed and manufactured for a solar fuel production is presented. Experimental data collected from a fixed bed tubular reactor testing are used for model comparison. The system consists of an externally heated tube with counter-current flowing gas and moving solid particles as the heated media. The proposed model simulates the dynamic behavior of temperature profiles of the tube wall, gas, and particles under various gas flowrates and residence times. The heat transfer between gas–wall, solid particle–wall, and gas–solid particle is numerically studied. The model results are compared with the results of experiments done using a 4 kW furnace with a 150 mm heating zone surrounding a horizontal alumina tube (reactor) with 50.8 mm outer diameter and thickness of 3.175 mm. Solid fixed particles of magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) with the size of 1 mm are packed within the length of 250 mm at the center of the tube length. Simulation results are assessed with respect to fixed bed experimental data for four different gas flowrates, namely, 5, 10, 15, and 20 standard liters per minute of air, and furnace temperatures in the range of 200–1200 °C. The simulation results showed good agreement with maximum steady state error that is less than 6% of those obtained from the experiments for all runs. The proposed model can be implemented as a low-order physical model for the control of temperature inside plug-flow reactors for thermochemical energy storage applications.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗