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NASA NTRS1990

Carbon in the outer solar system

The satellites of Uranus, with densities between 1.3 and 1.7 g cm(-3) (from Voyager 2 observations) and the Pluto-Charon system, with a mean density of just above 1.8 g cm(-3) (from terrestrial observations of mutual eclipse events), are too dense to have a significant amount of methane ice in their interiors. However, the observed densities do not preclude contributions from such organic materials as the acid-insoluble residue in carbonaceous chondrites and laboratory-produced tholins, which have densities on the order of approximately 1.5 g cm(-3). These and other considerations have led researchers to investigate the carbon mass budget in the outer solar system, with an emphasis on understanding the contribution of organic materials. Modeling of the interiors of Pluto and Charon (being carried out by R. Reynolds and A. Summers of NASA/Ames), assuming rock and water ice as the only constituents, suggests a silicate mass fraction for this system on the order of 0.65 to 0.70. The present work includes the most recent estimates of the C/H enhancements and high z/low z ratios of the giant planets (Pollack and Bodenheimer, 1987), and involves a more careful estimation of the high z/low z mass ratio expected from solar abundances than was used in Pollack et al. (1986), including the influence of the fraction of C in CO on the amount of condensed water ice. These calculations indicate that for a particular fraction of C in CO and a given fraction of C-bearing planetesimals that dissolve in the envelope (most likely in the range 0.50 to 0.75), (1) Jupiter and Saturn require a larger fraction of C in condensed materials than Uranus and Neptune, but (2) the Jupiter and Saturn results are much less strongly constrained by the error bars on the observed C/H enhancements and high z/low z ratios than is the case for Uranus and Neptune. The clearest result is that in the region of the solar nebula near Uranus and Neptune, the minority of carbon that is not in gaseous CO (1) must include a nonzero amount of condensed material, but (2) is most likely not condensed material alone, i.e., there must be a third carbon-bearing component besides condensed material and gaseous CO. Given the implied dearth of methane ice, the condensed carbon is likely dominated by organic material, and the third component present in addition to CO and organics is assumed to be CH4 gas.

Simonelli, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spatiotemporal Methane Emissions from Global Reservoirs

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas which contributes significantly to global warming and has atmospheric concentrations which have increased considerably in the last few decades, primarily due to human-induced emissions. Natural sources such as wetlands and inland aquatic systems (i.e., reservoirs, lakes, rivers) contribute substantially to global emissions but these natural systems comprise the most uncertain components of the CH4 budget. This study addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties associated with global CH4 emissions from reservoirs and undertakes a spatial and temporal assessment of global reservoir emissions. The results from this study suggest that reservoirs occupy a global area about 300,000 km2 (comparable to the size of the country of Italy) and emit 10.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. We identify data and methodological elements of previous estimates that indicate they may overestimate these emissions. This work provides a suite of global data sets, gridded at 0.25° × 0.25°, considering reservoir surface area, spatial distribution, eco-climatic system type, and the full annual cycle of daily CH4 emissions.

Spatiotemporal↗

NASA NTRS2015

Is There Ecological Information in Optical Polarization Data?

Optical linear polarization? In remote sensing it's due to specular reflection. The first surface that incident light encounters - a smooth water surface or the waxy first surface of a leaf's cuticle, if it's even somewhat smooth (i.e. shiny) - will specularly reflect and linearly polarize the incident light. We provide three examples of the types of ecological information contained in remotely sensed optical linear polarization measurements. Remove the surface reflection to better see the interior. The linearly polarized light reflected by leaf surfaces contains no information about cellular pigments, metabolites, or water contained in the leaf interiors of a plant canopy, because it never enters the leaf interior to interact with them. Thus, for purposes of remotely sensing the leaf interiors of a plant canopy, the linearly polarized light should be subtracted from the total reflected light, because including it would add noise to the measurement. In particular 'minus specular' vegetation indices should allow improved monitoring of a plant canopy's physiological processes. Estimate plant development stage and yield. Wheat and sorghum grain heads, following emergence, rapidly extend upward and very quickly tower over nearby leaves, partially blocking our view of the sunlight reflected by those leaf surfaces. The resulting decrease in the amount of surface reflected and polarized sunlight, if monitored over time, potentially allows per-field estimates of the dates of the heading and flowering development stages to be interleaved with weather data in models, which is key to better estimating per-field grain yield. Similar polarization changes may occur in other grasses, such as oats, barley, corn and rice, each a crop so widely grown that it potentially affects climate at the regional scale. Wetlands Mapping. The sunlight specularly reflected by surface waters is blindingly bright, spectrally flat and polarized - all of which telegraphs that the ground area is inundated. Inundated soils exchange methane with the atmosphere; non-inundated soils, carbon dioxide. Aquatic plants growing through the water surface pipe the soil-produced methane via the stomata to the atmosphere, enhancing exchanges rates by factors of 10-20 compared to ebullition (bubbling) or diffusion through the water column to the atmosphere. Thus, mapping wetland areas into three community types - inundated areas with emergent vegetation, open water and uplands - provides potentially key information to water, carbon and energy budgets at landscape to global scales.

Water↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 4 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 4 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The project objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We published a dedicated American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin volume describing initial results from the UT-GOM2-1 expedition in Sept. 2020. This is part 1 of a multi-volume commitment by AAPG to this project. We further confirmed that the natural gas in hydrate at GC-955 was formed by primary microbial processes (>76.1 %). The in-situ effective permeability hydrate-bearing sandy silts at the GC-955 reservoir ranges from 0.1 md (1.0×10-16 m2) to 2.4 md (2.4×10-15m2) in cores with 83% to 93% hydrate saturation. The intrinsic permeability (the single phase permeability) is estimated from reconstituted samples to be ~12 md (1.2×10-14 m2) to ~41 md (4.1×10-14 m2). We used observation and models to interpret that the core degradation that is found in pressure cores is due to dissociation of the methane hydrate in the outer circumference of the core and dissolution of that methane into the fresh pore water that the core is stored with. We are designing approaches to minimize this core loss in the future. We spent an enormous amount of effort to further improve the ability of the pressure coring tool (the PCTB) to pressure seal correctly. We completed upgrading the upper section of the PCTB to address poor pressure. We successful tested the modifications at Geotek’s test facility in Salt Lake City (Bench Test II). We completed a Land Test of the PCTB at the Schlumberger Cameron Test and Training Facility (CTTF). The tool did not seal in 6 out of 7 tests and we clearly demonstrated that cuttings were wedging in the ball valve assembly, keeping the ball valve from sealing. We reproduced the failure mechanism observed during the land test at Salt Lake City and confirmed the sensitivity of the ball valve assembly to grit. Geotek designed and tested 9 modifications to address this issue and the PCTB is now 100% successfully sealing in the presence of grit. Our science expedition is scheduled for spring 2022 and we are fully focused on preparing for this. UT and Ohio State completed a Shallow Hazard Assessment report for each proposed UT-GOM2-2 drilling location, pursuant to 30 CFR 250.214(f) and 250.244 (f). The Shallow Hazard Reports will accompany the UT-GOM2-2 Exploration Plan that is submitted to BOEM, and completes the geological and geophysical analysis for UT-GOM2-2 permitting efforts. We updated the UT-GOM2-2 Operations Plan (Version 1). We completed the UT-GOM2-2 Science and Sample Distribution Plan (Version 1). We evaluated the scope, budget, and schedule that would result from using a commercial vessel. We developed detailed drilling schedule, mud volume, and resource estimates. We developed a vessel specification document and a well plan, and sent these documents to prospective vessel contractors.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Rationalizing Burned Carbon with Carbon Monoxide Exported from South America

We present several estimates cross-checking the fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere from burning, comparing models that are based on simple land-surface parameterizations and atmospheric transport dynamics. Both estimates made by NASA Ames and USP modeling techniques are quite high compared to some detailed satellite/land-use studies of emissions. The flux of carbon liberated to the atmosphere via biomass burning is important for several reasons. This flux is a fundamental statistic for the parameterization of the large-scale flux of gases controlling the reactive greenhouse gases methane and ozone. Similarly, it is central to the estimation of the translocation of nitrogen and pyrodenitrification in the tropics. Thirdly, CO2 emitted from rainforest clearing contributes directly to carbon lost from the rainforest system as it contributes to greenhouse gas forcing. While CO2 from pasturage, agriculture, etc, is considered to be reabsorbed seasonally, and so "off budget" for the carbon cycle, it must also be accounted. CO2 anomalies related to daily weather and interannual climatic variation are strong enough to perturb our scientific perception of long-term carbon storage trends. We compare fluxes deduced from land-use statistics (originally, W.M. Hao) and from satellite hot pixels (A. Setzer) with atmospheric fluxes determined by the mesoscale/continental scale models RAMS and MM5, and point to some new work with highly resolved global models (the NASA Data Assimilation Office's GEOS4). Our simulations are tied to events, so that measured tracers like CO tie the models directly to the burning and meteorology of a specific period. We point out a particular sensitivity in estimates based on CO, and indicate how analysis of CO2 along with other biomass-burning tracers may lead to an improved multi-species estimator of carbon burned.

Chatfield, R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

WFIRST CGI: Prism and Polarizer Characterization Modes

As part of its technology demonstration, the WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) will demonstrate point source spectroscopy and polarization measurements of disks. The specific implementation of spectroscopy is a zero-deviation Amici prism and slit to be placed on the planet after high contrast has been achieved by CGI. The polarization optics are a set of Wollaston prisms so that orthogonal polarization states can be measured simultaneously. The CGI spectral characterization mode, being designed and built and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), has a spectral resolution of R50 and is designed to accommodate a 15% bandpass spanning 610-785nm. In order to recover Stokes information, there are two sets of Wollaston prisms clocked 45 degrees with respect to one another with each measurement taken in series. The Wollaston design and optical elements are a contribution by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency, with final alignment and testing being done at GSFC. The spectroscopy mode is designed to target Methane absorption features around 730nm, keeping the spectral resolution as low as possible to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and hence reduce detection time. We highlight the requirements for these modes and address the challenge of on-orbit spectral calibration for a deployable slit in the presence of pointing drifts. Of unique interest is how the observatory error budget couples into good stellar spectrum calibration and subsequent speckle subtraction. We also provide further detail on the optomechanical design, its stability based on thermal and structural predictions, modeled performance, and operations concept. These performance metrics are simulated to demonstrate how a slit located at an arbitrary field point is homed onto the planet and converted to a calibrated spectrum.

Tyler D Groff↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unbounded Learning Environments as an Approach to Preserving Design Flexibility Demonstrated With Nasa Stem Enhancement in Earth Science (SEES) Students

The Artemis Lunar program is providing opportunity for young scientists and engineers to contribute towards leading edge design concepts regarding early on-surface work areas that are aligned with major national initiatives. Therefore, it is imperative in any discovery process that those young scientists and engineers be provided the bandwidth or operating in a ‘greenfield’ technology environment that encourages new ideas, and perhaps the discovery of ideas that would not be realized within typical structured engineering constraints. To facilitate this concept, the use of unbounded teaching methods was utilized to provide a low-constraint environment from which students can design and discover the requirements that are bounded by the natural environment of the lunar surface, and then build up design requirements un-hindered by budgetary and/or logistics realizations of the moment funding capabilities. Specifically, this design exercise provided the students to operate with unlimited budgets, and unlimited up-mass lifts to the lunar surface to develop a preliminary feasible process for establishing a working lunar research based upon the near-area permanently shadowed regions within the lunar surface. In concept, working near PSRs will be advantageous as they receive near eternal shielding from solar radiation and may potentially host numerous volatile substances such as water ice, methane, hydrogen sulfide and helium-3 that will be the target of scientific investigation and in-situ resource utilization ISRU. The advantage of an upstream working area is that the quality of return materials could potentially be exponential when including an upstream analysis prior to earth-return missions. Furthermore, it’s well known within the scientific and engineering community that working with the base materials in front of human eyes elucidates new features and observations that may not survive when stored and shipped to Earth. Finally, it is theorized that these methods and techniques developing on the lunar surface would be applicable to other planets or cometary surfaces.

Education↗

NASA NTRS1984

Implications of the stratospheric water vapor distribution as determined from the Nimbus 7 LIMS experiment

The LIMS experiment on Nimbus 7 has provided new results on the stratospheric water vapor distribution. The data show (1) a latitudinal gradient with mixing ratios that increase by a factor of 2 from equator to + or - 60 degrees at 50 mb, (2) most of the time there is a fairly uniform mixing ratio of 5 ppmv at high latitudes, but more variation exists during winter, (3) a well-developed hygropause at low to midlatitudes of the lower stratosphere, (4) a source region of water vapor in the upper stratospehere to lower mesosphere that is consistent with methane oxidation chemistry, at least within the uncertainties of the data, (5) an apparent zonal mean H2O distribution that is consistent with the circulation proposed by Brewer in 1949, and (6) a zonal mean distribution in the lower stratosphere that is consistent with the idea of quasi-isentropic transport by eddies in the meridional direction. Limits to the use of the data in the refinement of our understanding of the stratospheric water vapor budget are noted.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions

Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An approach to sulfate geoengineering with surface emissions of carbonyl sulfide

Sulfate geoengineering (SG) methods based on lower stratospheric tropical injection of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) have been widely discussed in recent years, focusing on the direct and indirect effects they would have on the climate system. Here a potential alternative method is discussed, where sulfur emissions are located at the surface or in the troposphere in the form of carbonyl sulfide (COS) gas. There are two time-dependent chemistry–climate model experiments designed from the years 2021 to 2055, assuming a 40 Tg-Syr -1 artificial global flux of COS, which is geographically distributed following the present-day anthropogenic COS surface emissions (SG-COS-SRF) or a 6 Tg-Syr -1 injection of COS in the tropical upper troposphere (SG-COS-TTL). The budget of COS and sulfur species is discussed, as are the effects of both SG-COS strategies on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth (~Δτ=0.080 in the years 2046–2055), aerosol effective radius (0.46 µm), surface SO x deposition (+8.9 % for SG-COS-SRF; +3.3 % for SG-COS-TTL), and tropopause radiative forcing (RF; ~-1.5 W m –2 in all-sky conditions in both SG-COS experiments). Indirect effects on ozone, methane and stratospheric water vapour are also considered, along with the COS direct contribution. According to our model results, the resulting net RF is –1.3 W m –2 , for SG-COS-SRF, and –1.5 W m –2 , for SG-COS-TTL, and it is comparable to the corresponding RF of –1.7 W m –2 obtained with a sustained injection of 4 Tg-Syr -1 in the tropical lower stratosphere in the form of SO 2 (SG-SO2, which is able to produce a comparable increase of the sulfate aerosol optical depth). Significant changes in the stratospheric ozone response are found in both SG-COS experiments with respect to SG-SO2 (~5 DU versus +1.4 DU globally). According to the model results, the resulting ultraviolet B (UVB) perturbation at the surface accounts for –4.3 % as a global and annual average (versus –2.4 % in the SG-SO2 case), with a springtime Antarctic decrease of –2.7 % (versus a +5.8 % increase in the SG-SO2 experiment). Overall, we find that an increase in COS emissions may be feasible and produce a more latitudinally uniform forcing without the need for the deployment of stratospheric aircraft. However, our assumption that the rate of COS uptake by soils and plants does not vary with increasing COS concentrations will need to be investigated in future work, and more studies are needed on the prolonged exposure effects to higher COS values in humans and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions [Slides]

Human emitted GHGs (long lived, cumulative) that trap more heat (IR) and aerosols (short lived, steady) that reflect sunlight (Vis) have altered Earth’s radiation budget and warmed our climate measurably and predictably. Our complex dynamic climate system has trapped 400 ZettaJ (10 21 ) and has many positive feedbacks. Regions are changing at unprecedented rates and crossing thresholds as BAU will lock us into 8.5 W m -2 in 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

CARBO - The Carbon Observatory Instrument Suite - The Next Generation of Earth Observing Instruments for Global Monitoring of Carbon Gases

The Carbon Observatory Instrument Suite, or CARBO, consists of four carbon observing instruments sharing a common instrument bus, yet targeted for a particular wavelength band each with a unique science observation. They are: a) Instrument 1, wavelength centered at 756 nm for oxygen and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observations, b) Instrument 2, centered at 1629 nm, for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) observation, c) Instrument 3, centered at 2062 nm for carbon dioxide and d) Instrument 4, centered at 2328 for carbon monoxide (CO) and methane. From low-Earth orbit, these instruments have a field-of-view of 10 to 15 degrees, and a spatial resolution of 2 km square. These instruments have a spectral resolving power ranging from ten to twenty thousand, and can monitor columnaverage dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) at 1.5 ppm, and methane (XCH4) at 7 ppb. These new instruments will advance the use of immersion grating technology in spectrometer instruments in order to reduce the size of the instrument, while improving performance. These compact, capable instruments are envisioned to be compatible with small satellites, yet modular to be configured to address the particular science questions at hand. Here we report on the current status of the instrument design and fabrication, focusing primarily on Instruments 1 and 2. We will describe the key science and engineering requirements and the instrument performance error budget. We will discuss the optical design with particular emphasis on the immersion grating, and the advantages this new technology affords compared to previous instruments. We will also discuss the status of the focal plane array and the detector electronics and housing. Finally, we report on a new approach – developed during this instrument design process - which enables simultaneous measurement of both orthogonal polarization states (S and P) over the field-of-view and optical bandpass. We believe this polarization sensing capability will enable science observations which were previously limited by instrumental and observational degeneracies. In particular: improved sensitivity to all species, better sensitivity to surface polarization effects, better constraints on aerosol scattering parameters, and superior discrimination of the vertical distribution of gases and aerosols.

Bernas, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2021

Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH 4 Profiles

Abstract The Pantanal region of Brazil is the largest seasonally flooded tropical grassland and, according to local chamber measurements, a substantial CH 4 source. CH 4 emissions from wetlands have recently become of heightened interest because global atmospheric 13 CH 4 data indicate they may contribute to the resumption of atmospheric CH 4 growth since 2007. We have regularly measured vertical atmospheric profiles for 2 years in the center of the Pantanal with the objectives to obtain an estimate of CH 4 emissions using an atmospheric approach, and provide information about flux seasonality and its relation to controlling factors. Boundary layer‐free troposphere differences observed in the Pantanal are large compared to other wetlands. Total emissions based on a planetary boundary layer budgeting technique are 2.0–2.8 TgCH 4 yr −1 (maximum flux ∼0.4 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) while those based on a Bayesian inversion using an atmospheric transport model are ∼3.3 TgCH 4 yr −1 . Compared to recent estimates for Amazonia (∼41 ± 3 TgCH 4 yr −1 , maximum flux ∼0.3 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) these emissions are not that large. Our Pantanal data suggest a clear flux seasonality with CH 4 being released in large amounts just after water levels begin to rise again after minimum levels have been reached. CH 4 emissions decline substantially once the maximum water level has been reached. While predictions with prognostic wetland CH 4 emission models agree well with the magnitude of the fluxes, they disagree with the phasing. Our approach shows promise for detecting and understanding longer‐term trends in CH 4 emissions and the potential for future wetlands CH 4 emissions climate feedbacks.

Gloor, M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Troposphere↗

NASA NTRS1993

A carbon isotope mass balance for an anoxic marine sediment: Isotopic signatures of diagenesis

A carbon isotope mass balance was determined for the sediments of Cape Lookout Bight, NC to constrain the carbon budgets published previously. The diffusive, ebullitive and burial fluxes of sigma CO2 and CH4, as well as the carbon isotope signatures of these fluxes, were measured. The flux-weighted isotopic signature of the remineralized carbon (-18.9 plus or minus 2.7 per mil) agreed with the isotopic composition of the remineralized organic carbon determined from the particulate organic carbon (POC) delta(C-13) profiles (-19.2 plus or minus 0.2), verifying the flux and isotopic signature estimates. The measured delta(C-13) values of the sigma CO2 and CH4 diffusive fluxes were significantly different from those calculated from porewater gradients. The differences appear to be influenced by methane oxidation at the sediment-water interface, although other potential processes cannot be excluded. The isotope mass balance provides important information concerning the locations of potential diagenetic isotope effects. Specifically, the absence of downcore change in the delta(C-13) value of the POC fraction and the identical isotopic composition of the POC and the products of remineralization indicate that no isotopic fractionation is expressed during the initial breakdown of the POC, despite its isotopically heterogeneous composition.

Boehme, Susan E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate warming and elevated CO 2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

Peatlands are an important carbon (C) reservoir storing one-third of global soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known about the fate of these C stocks under climate change. Here, we examine the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) on the molecular composition of SOC to infer SOC sources (microbe-, plant- and fire-derived) and stability in a boreal peatland. We show that while warming alone decreased plant- and microbe-derived SOC due to enhanced decomposition, warming combined with eCO 2 increased plant-derived SOC compounds. We further observed increasing root-derived inputs (suberin) and declining leaf/needle-derived inputs (cutin) into SOC under warming and eCO 2 . The decline in SOC compounds with warming and gains from new root-derived C under eCO 2 , suggest that warming and eCO 2 may shift peatland C budget towards pools with faster turnover. Together, our results indicate that climate change may increase inputs and enhance decomposition of SOC potentially destabilising C storage in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Methane emissions from Alaska Arctic tundra - An assessment of local spatial variability

The findings of an extensive midsummer survey of CH4 emissions measurements representing the Alaska Arctic tundra are presented. Variability in rates of emissions was similar in magnitude on local and regional scales, ranging from 0 to 286.5 mg/sq m/d overall and often varying across two orders of magnitude within 0.5 m distances. Primary control on rates of emission was determined by the substrate and position of the water table relative to the surface. Emission rates in the Arctic Foothills ranged from 0.2 mg/sq m/d for tussock tundra to 55.53 mg/sq m/d over wet meadows. Plant-mediated release of CH4 to the atmosphere was directly proportional to green leaf area and represented 92-98 percent of the total emission rates over vegetated sites. The results suggest the current published emission rates may have overestimated the contribution of boreal ecosystems to the global CH4 budget by several fold.

Morrissey, L. A.↗