SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “maize”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mutagenic effects of heavy ion radiation in plants

Genetic and developmental effects of heavy ions in maize and rice were investigated. Heavy particles with various charges and energies were accelerated at the BEVALAC. The frequency of occurrence of white-yellow stripes on leaves of plants developed from irradiated maize seeds increased linearly with dose, and high Linear Energy Transfer (LET) heavy charged particles, e.g., neon, argon, and iron, were 2-12 times as effective as gamma rays in inducing this type of mutation. The effectiveness of high-LET heavy ion in (1) inhibiting rice seedling growth, (2) reducing plant fertility, (3) inducing chromosome aberration and micronuclei in root tip cells and pollen mother cells of the first generation plants developed from exposed seeds, and (4) inducing mutation in the second generation, were greater than that of low-LET gamma rays. All effects observed were dose-dependent; however, there appeared to be an optimal range of doses for inducing certain types of mutation, for example, for argon ions (400 MeV/u) at 90-100 Gy, several valuable mutant lines with favorable characters, such as semidwarf, early maturity and high yield ability, were obtained. Experimental results suggest that the potential application of heavy ions in crop improvement is promising. Restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of two semidwarf mutants induced by argon particles revealed that large DNA alterations might be involved in these mutants.

Mei, M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Pseudo-wavelet analysis of turbulence patterns in three vegetation layers

Ramp patterns in scalar traces such as temperature are the signature of coherent structures. A pseudo-wavelet analysis technique was developed in which ideal saw-tooth patterns of varying size were used as basis functions and fitted to temperature and velocity data. Data recorded from three very different vegetation stands were examined in this study. It was found that the most probable structure duration for the forest canopy was in the range 35-40 s, for the orchard canopy it was 20-25 s and for the maize it was 15-20 s. When expressed in non-dimensional form, the structure duration probability distribution for the maize canopy was about a decade larger than for the forest canopy, with the orchard canopy intermediate. The mean eddy duration versus wind shear relation falls on a narrow band for all three canopies, indicating that wind shear at the canopy top is the determining factor for the scale of the coherent eddies. The inverse of duration and intermittency of coherent structures exhibits a tendency of independence from wind shear at higher wind shear values. Coherent structures transport heat in a more efficient way than do smaller scale, less coherent motions. In all the canopies, the heat flux fractions associated with coherent structures are at least 10% higher than the corresponding time fraction.

Qiu, Jie↗

NASA NTRS2003

Enhanced gravitropism of roots with a disrupted cap actin cytoskeleton

The actin cytoskeleton has been proposed to be a major player in plant gravitropism. However, understanding the role of actin in this process is far from complete. To address this problem, we conducted an analysis of the effect of Latrunculin B (Lat B), a potent actin-disrupting drug, on root gravitropism using various parameters that included detailed curvature kinetics, estimation of gravitropic sensitivity, and monitoring of curvature development after extended clinorotation. Lat B treatment resulted in a promotion of root curvature after a 90 degrees reorientation in three plant species tested. More significantly, the sensitivity of maize (Zea mays) roots to gravity was enhanced after actin disruption, as determined from a comparison of presentation time of Lat B-treated versus untreated roots. A short 10-min gravistimulus followed by extended rotation on a 1-rpm clinostat resulted in extensive gravitropic responses, manifested as curvature that often exceeded 90 degrees. Application of Lat B to the cap or elongation zone of maize roots resulted in the disruption of the actin cytoskeleton, which was confined to the area of localized Lat B application. Only roots with Lat B applied to the cap displayed the strong curvature responses after extended clinorotation. Our study demonstrates that disrupting the actin cytoskeleton in the cap leads to the persistence of a signal established by a previous gravistimulus. Therefore, actin could function in root gravitropism by providing a mechanism to regulate the proliferation of a gravitropic signal originating from the cap to allow the root to attain its correct orientation or set point angle.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

NASA NTRS2003

Extracellular ATP inhibits root gravitropism at concentrations that inhibit polar auxin transport

Raising the level of extracellular ATP to mM concentrations similar to those found inside cells can block gravitropism of Arabidopsis roots. When plants are grown in Murashige and Skoog medium supplied with 1 mM ATP, their roots grow horizontally instead of growing straight down. Medium with 2 mM ATP induces root curling, and 3 mM ATP stimulates lateral root growth. When plants are transferred to medium containing exogenous ATP, the gravity response is reduced or in some cases completely blocked by ATP. Equivalent concentrations of ADP or inorganic phosphate have slight but usually statistically insignificant effects, suggesting the specificity of ATP in these responses. The ATP effects may be attributable to the disturbance of auxin distribution in roots by exogenously applied ATP, because extracellular ATP can alter the pattern of auxin-induced gene expression in DR5-beta-glucuronidase transgenic plants and increase the response sensitivity of plant roots to exogenously added auxin. The presence of extracellular ATP also decreases basipetal auxin transport in a dose-dependent fashion in both maize (Zea mays) and Arabidopsis roots and increases the retention of [(3)H]indole-3-acetic acid in root tips of maize. Taken together, these results suggest that the inhibitory effects of extracellular ATP on auxin distribution may happen at the level of auxin export. The potential role of the trans-plasma membrane ATP gradient in auxin export and plant root gravitropism is discussed.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cellular specificity of the gravitropic motor response in roots

A number of features of the gravitropic response of roots are not readily accounted for by the classical Cholodny-Went theory. These include the observations that (i) in the later stages of the response the growth gradient is reversed with no evident reversal of the auxin gradient; (ii) a major component of the acceleration of growth along the upper side occurs in the distal elongation zone (DEZ), a group of cells located between the meristem and the main elongation, not within the central elongation zone; and (iii) the initiation of differential growth in the DEZ appears to be independent of the establishment of auxin asymmetry. Alternative candidates for mediation of differential growth in the DEZ include calcium ions and protons. Gravi-induced curvature is accompanied by polar movement of calcium toward the lower side of the maize root tip and the DEZ is shown to be particularly sensitive to growth inhibition by calcium. Also, gravistimulation of maize roots causes enhanced acid efflux from the upper side of the DEZ. Evidence for gravi-induced modification of ion movements in the root tip includes changes in intracellular potentials and current flow. It is clear that there is more than one motor region in the root with regard to gravitropic responses and there is evidence that the DEZ itself consists of more than one class of responding cells. In order to gain a more complete understanding of the mechanism of gravitropic curvature, the physiological properties of the sub-zones of the root apex need to be thoroughly characterized with regard to their sensitivity to hormones, calcium, acid pH and electrical perturbations.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effects of abscisic acid and xanthoxin on elongation and gravitropism in primary roots of Zea mays

We examined the involvement of abscisic acid (ABA) and xanthoxin (Xan) in maize root gravitropism by (1) testing the ability of ABA to allow positive gravitropism in dark-grown seedlings of the maize cultivar LG11, a cultivar known to require light for positive gravitropism of the primary root, (2) comparing curvature in roots in which half of the cap had been excised and replaced with agar containing either ABA or indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), (3) measuring gravitropism in roots of seedlings submerged in oxygenated solutions of ABA or IAA and (4) testing the effect of Xan on root elongation. Using a variety of methods of applying ABA to the root, we found that ABA did not cause horizontally-oriented primary roots of dark-grown seedlings to become positively gravitropic. Replacing half of the root cap of vertically oriented roots with an agar block containing ABA had little or no effect on curvature relative to that of controls in which the half cap was replaced by a plain agar block. Replacement of the removed half cap with IAA either canceled or reversed the curvature displayed by controls. When light-grown seedlings were submerged in ABA they responded strongly to gravistimulation while those in IAA did not. Xan (up to 0.1 mM) did not affect root elongation. The results indicate that ABA is not a likely mediator of root gravitropism and that the putative ABA precursor, Xan, lacks the appropriate growth-inhibiting properties to serve as a mediator of root gravitropism.

NASA Program Space Biology↗

NASA NTRS1984

Inhibition of polar calcium movement and gravitropism in roots treated with auxin-transport inhibitors

Primary roots of maize (Zea mays L.) and pea (Pisum sativum L.) exhibit strong positive gravitropism. In both species, gravistimulation induces polar movement of calcium across the root tip from the upper side to the lower side. Roots of onion (Allium cepa L.) are not responsive to gravity and gravistimulation induces little or no polar movement of calcium across the root tip. Treatment of maize or pea roots with inhibitors of auxin transport (morphactin, naphthylphthalamic acid, 2,3,5-triiodobenzoic acid) prevents both gravitropism and gravity-induced polar movement of calcium across the root tip. The results indicate that calcium movement and auxin movement are closely linked in roots and that gravity-induced redistribution of calcium across the root cap may play an important role in the development of gravitropic curvature.

Indoleacetic Acids/antagonists & inhibitors/metabo↗

NASA NTRS2000

A pollen-specific novel calmodulin-binding protein with tetratricopeptide repeats

Calcium is essential for pollen germination and pollen tube growth. A large body of information has established a link between elevation of cytosolic Ca(2+) at the pollen tube tip and its growth. Since the action of Ca(2+) is primarily mediated by Ca(2+)-binding proteins such as calmodulin (CaM), identification of CaM-binding proteins in pollen should provide insights into the mechanisms by which Ca(2+) regulates pollen germination and tube growth. In this study, a CaM-binding protein from maize pollen (maize pollen calmodulin-binding protein, MPCBP) was isolated in a protein-protein interaction-based screening using (35)S-labeled CaM as a probe. MPCBP has a molecular mass of about 72 kDa and contains three tetratricopeptide repeats (TPR) suggesting that it is a member of the TPR family of proteins. MPCBP protein shares a high sequence identity with two hypothetical TPR-containing proteins from Arabidopsis. Using gel overlay assays and CaM-Sepharose binding, we show that the bacterially expressed MPCBP binds to bovine CaM and three CaM isoforms from Arabidopsis in a Ca(2+)-dependent manner. To map the CaM-binding domain several truncated versions of the MPCBP were expressed in bacteria and tested for their ability to bind CaM. Based on these studies, the CaM-binding domain was mapped to an 18-amino acid stretch between the first and second TPR regions. Gel and fluorescence shift assays performed with CaM and a CaM-binding synthetic peptide further confirmed MPCBP binding to CaM. Western, Northern, and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis have shown that MPCBP expression is specific to pollen. MPCBP was detected in both soluble and microsomal proteins. Immunoblots showed the presence of MPCBP in mature and germinating pollen. Pollen-specific expression of MPCBP, its CaM-binding properties, and the presence of TPR motifs suggest a role for this protein in Ca(2+)-regulated events during pollen germination and growth.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

NASA NTRS2016

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2016

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2018

Coordinating AgMIP Data and Models Across Global and Regional Scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C Assessments

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some bread basket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

interdisciplinary↗

NASA NTRS2019

Water-Saving Agriculture Can Deliver Deep Water Cuts for China

China is working hard to reconcile growing demands for freshwater with already oversubscribed renewable water resources. However, the knowledge essential for setting and achieving the intended water consumption cuts remains limited. Here we show that on-farm water management interventions such as improved irrigation and soil management practices for maize cultivation can lead to substantial water consumption reductions, by a simulated total of 28-46% (7-14 billion m3/year) nationally, with or without the impacts of climate change. The water consumption cut is equivalent to 16-31% of the ultimate capacity of the South-North Water Transfer Project. Much of the reduction is achievable at the populous and water-stressed North China Plain and Northeast China. Meanwhile, the interventions can increase maize production by an estimated 7-15%, meeting 22-28% of demand increase projected for 2050. The water management and food production improvements obtained are crucial for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water, land, and food in China and far beyond.

Guorui Huang↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗