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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A practical extension of the recursive multi-fidelity model for the emulation of hole closure experiments

We report in regimes of high strain rate, the strength of materials often cannot be measured directly in experiments. Instead, the strength is inferred based on an experimental observable, such as a change in shape, that is matched by simulations supported by a known strength model. In hole closure experiments, the rate and degree to which a central hole in a plate of material closes during a dynamic loading event are used to infer material strength parameters. Due to the complexity of the experiment, many computationally expensive, three-dimensional simulations are necessary to train an emulator for calibration or other analyses. These simulations can be run at multiple grid resolutions, where dense grids are slower but more accurate. In an effort to reduce the computational cost, a combination of simulations with different resolutions can be combined to develop an accurate emulator within a limited training time. We explore the novel design and construction of an appropriate functional recursive multi-fidelity emulator of a strength model for tantalum in hole closure experiments that can be applied to arbitrarily large training data. Hence, by formulating a multi-fidelity model to employ low-fidelity simulations, we were able to reduce the error of our emulator by approximately 81% with only an approximately 1.6% increase in computing resource utilization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Demonstration of Deployment Accuracy of the Starshade Inner Disk Subsystem

We present experimental results that demonstrate the required in-plane deployment accuracy of the starshade Inner Disk Subsystem (IDS). This effort was to address Milestone 7C of the Starshade Technology Activity S5, which requires that the in-plane deployment accuracy of the petal interfaces on the IDS be within +/-300um. A full-scale 10m-diameter IDS prototype was constructed. This prototype comprised a medium-fidelity perimeter truss, medium-fidelity spokes, and a low-fidelity optical shield (OS). The testbed also included gravity compensation systems and a laser tracker metrology system. The post-processed measurement uncertainties of the laser tracker were less than 30um at the 3 sigma level. Design, engineering and fabrication of these components was done by JPL, Tendeg, and Roccor. Testing was performed at the Tendeg facility in Louisville, Colorado. The IDS prototype was deployed 22 times and the locations of petal interfaces on the IDS were measured after each deployment. Based on this data, tolerance intervals were calculated that would contain 99.73% of future deployment accuracy errors with 90% confidence. These tolerance intervals are conservative estimates for 3 sigma bounds. The tolerance intervals for the three pertinent error components were found to be within the required allocations, with at least 19% margin.

Turse, Dana↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS2020

Algorithm Performance Dataset from NASA Open-Source Software

NASA Langley Research Center has recently developed and released the open-source software Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy- LAR-19756-1) as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, multi model Monte Carlo (MC) seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. MXMCPy is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches (over a dozen algorithms available) within one modular and extensible package [1]. With MXMCPy, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem,while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. However,there is currently very little understanding about which algorithm will perform best for a given problem (defined by the correlation between and relative cost of the available models) without a brute force search.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS1992

Integration mockup and process material management system

Work to define and develop a full scale Space Station Freedom (SSF) mockup with the flexibility to evolve into future designs, to validate techniques for maintenance and logistics and verify human task allocations and support trade studies is described. This work began in early 1985 and ended in August, 1991. The mockups are presently being used at MSFC in Building 4755 as a technology and design testbed, as well as for public display. Micro Craft also began work on the Process Material Management System (PMMS) under this contract. The PMMS simulator was a sealed enclosure for testing to identify liquids, gaseous, particulate samples, and specimen including, urine, waste water, condensate, hazardous gases, surrogate gasses, liquids, and solids. The SSF would require many trade studies to validate techniques for maintenance and logistics and verify system task allocations; it was necessary to develop a full scale mockup which would be representative of current SSF design with the ease of changing those designs as the SSF design evolved and changed. The tasks defined for Micro Craft were to provide the personnel, services, tools, and materials for the SSF mockup which would consist of four modules, nodes, interior components, and part task mockups of MSFC responsible engineering systems. This included the Engineering Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) testbed. For the initial study, the mockups were low fidelity, soft mockups of graphics art bottle, and other low cost materials, which evolved into higher fidelity mockups as the R&D design evolved, by modifying or rebuilding, an important cost saving factor in the design process. We designed, fabricated, and maintained the full size mockup shells and support stands. The shells consisted of cylinders, end cones, rings, longerons, docking ports, crew airlocks, and windows. The ECLSS required a heavier cylinder to support the ECLSS systems test program. Details of this activity will be covered. Support stands were designed and built for each module to sufficiently move and rotate each module. Secondary structures such as floors, ceilings, bulkheads, standoffs, racks, etc. were developed and built.

Verble, Adas James, Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Broadband Predictions of Optimized Proprotors in Axial Forward Flight

A low-fidelity toolchain was used to predict broadband self-noise trends for three proprotors in axial flight: a baseline (C24ND) and two acoustically constrained proprotors (OPT-III and COPR-3). Rotor loads were predicted with the ANOPP Propeller Analysis System (PAS) and self-noise was predicted with the semiempirical method of Brooks, Pope, and Marcolini (BPM) implemented in the ANOPP2 Self-Noise Internal Functional Module (ASNIFM). Comparisons to experimental data revealed that trends for turbulent boundary layer trailing edge (TBL-TE) noise could be modeled across several flight conditions by increasing the boundary layer thicknesses via the trip setting. Since the Mach number range of the BPM method is exceeded in these predictions, a dependence of boundary layer displacement thickness on blade station Mach number was suggested as a possible reason for needing to model thicker boundary layers, suggesting that the TBL-TE model needs to be developed further. Bluntness vortex shedding noise (BVS) predictions required tuning the trailing edge thickness and trailing edge closure angle for each flight condition to match experimental trends, demonstrating that the BVS noise model is incomplete and that BVS noise may vary with the angle of attack. This study indicates that the BPM self-noise method needs to be improved, which will lead to more accurate broadband predictions.

Broadband self-noise↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Broadband Predictions of Optimized Proprotors in Axial Forward Flight

A low-fidelity toolchain was used to predict broadband self-noise trends for three proprotors in axial flight: a baseline (C24ND) and two acoustically constrained proprotors (OPT-III and COPR-3). Rotor loads were predicted with the ANOPP Propeller Analysis System (PAS) and self-noise was predicted with the semiempirical method of Brooks, Pope, and Marcolini (BPM) implemented in the ANOPP2 Self-Noise Internal Functional Module (ASNIFM). Comparisons to experimental data revealed that trends for turbulent boundary layer trailing edge (TBL-TE) noise could be modeled across several flight conditions by increasing the boundary layer thicknesses via the trip setting. Since the Mach number range of the BPM method is exceeded in these predictions, a dependence of boundary layer displacement thickness on blade station Mach number was suggested as a possible reason for needing to model thicker boundary layers, suggesting that the TBL-TE model needs to be developed further. Bluntness vortex shedding noise (BVS) predictions required tuning the trailing edge thickness and trailing edge closure angle for each flight condition to match experimental trends, demonstrating that the BVS noise model is incomplete and that BVS noise may vary with the angle of attack. This study indicates that the BPM self-noise method needs to be improved, which will lead to more accurate broadband predictions.

Broadband self-noise↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Estimation with PVs

The increasing penetration of behind-the-meter PVs causes challenges to maintain voltage security due to the lack of distribution system visibility. This paper proposes a nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process (NARGP) approach to fuse limited number of SCADA/AMI data together with historical pseudo measurements for distribution node voltage probabilistic estimation. The high-fidelity SCADA data are fused with the low-fidelity AMI and pseudo measurements by the autoregressive algorithm embedded in the Gaussian process. This allows us to use multi-fidelity data to achieve entire distribution system voltage visibility. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 123node system demonstrate that the NARGP method is able to obtain high accuracy in estimating bus voltage and quantifying estimation uncertainties as compared to other approaches.

distribution system estimation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design of a Manufacturing Demonstration Unit for a Composite Lunar Landing Gear Strut

The goal of the current work was to develop an analytical framework for design of composite struts using various levels of model fidelity. Rapid optimization trade studies were performed using low fidelity two-dimensional (2D) axisymmetric models with smeared composite properties. The optimum 2D model was compared with three-dimensional (3D) models with higher levels of fidelity in material property representation. Good agreement was found with all models. The buckling performance of the highest fidelity 3D model was found to be satisfactory for the intended loading conditions. An additional goal of this work was to perform an initial assessment of using automated fiber placement (AFP) and other advanced manufacturing methods to explore their feasibility for the fabrication of struts for lunar landers, strut-braced wings, and other aerospace components. The designs produced during this study are intended to be used to develop manufacturing demonstration units (MDU) that can be fabricated at the Integrated Structural Assembly of Advanced Composites (ISAAC) facility at Langley Research Center (LaRC) and tested in lab facilities at LaRC.

carbon-epoxy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design of a Manufacturing Demonstration Unit for a Composite Lunar Landing Gear Strut

The goal of the current work was to develop an analytical framework for design of composite struts using various levels of model fidelity. Rapid optimization trade studies were performed using low fidelity two-dimensional (2D) axisymmetric models with smeared composite properties. The optimum 2D model was compared with three-dimensional (3D) models with higher levels of fidelity in material property representation. Good agreement was found with all models. The buckling performance of the highest fidelity 3D model was found to be satisfactory for the intended loading conditions. An additional goal of this work was to perform an initial assessment of using automated fiber placement (AFP) and other advanced manufacturing methods to explore their feasibility for the fabrication of struts for lunar landers, strut-braced wings, and other aerospace components. The designs produced during this study are intended to be used to develop manufacturing demonstration units (MDU) that can be fabricated at the Integrated Structural Assembly of Advanced Composites (ISAAC) facility at Langley Research Center (LaRC) and tested in lab facilities at LaRC.

carbon-epoxy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗