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DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States

Electric airport ground support equipment (eGSE) hourly annual (8760) load datasets for the top 50 U.S. airports (by enplanements), as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Kevin Robby, Jayaraj Rane, Adway Das, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92139. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92139.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States

Federal, state, and municipal electric vehicle fleet hourly load datasets at the Uber H3 hex, county, and city resolutions, as described in Singer et al. (2025). Please cite as: Singer, Mark, Cabell Hodge, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92142. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92142.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

When Do Efficiency and Demand Flexibility Go Hand-in-hand?

Utilities have been experimenting with integrated demand side management (IDSM) programs since the 2000s. The potential benefits of improved program cost-effectiveness and customer engagement from combining energy efficiency (EE), demand flexibility (DF), and other distributed energy resources into an integrated customer offering have been recognized although there are several known regulatory and program administrative challenges. In addition, as buildings adopt EE measures, the baseline load profile change generally reduces the potential load that can be shed or shifted. This has been a significant technical barrier for customers and program implementers. However, it is a myth that EE always reduces DF. Load change from EE can be time-varying. Therefore, whether EE improves or reduces DF should be evaluated on an individual measure basis accounting for weather dependencies and interactions. For IDSM program design purpose, it is useful to understand how common EE features influence DF and the underlying building physics. In this paper, we use parametric simulations of a prototype medium office building to evaluate how various EE features influence DF, measured by a “demand decrease intensity” (W/ft2) metric. These EE features cover envelope characteristics, internal loads, and airside HVAC system. The parametric analysis shows that some efficient HVAC control measures will increase DF but not the traditional building envelope, lighting, and ventilation-related efficiency measures. These findings contribute to the technical basis for achieving enhanced energy benefits by packaging appropriate HVAC control measures in IDSM program design. Program developers should further validate these results in targeted pilot projects.

Yu, Lili↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Hourly one-week electricity demand profiles for electric transit bus depots in the United States, as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Tim Jonas, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92140. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92140.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Heat Recovery with Storage: Control Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Time-Independent Energy Recovery Plant Using Modelica

Heat recovery in large building central plants saves energy but traditionally requires simultaneous heating and cooling. The Time-Independent Energy Recovery (TIER) plant shifts this paradigm by integrating thermal energy storage (TES) to enable heat recovery regardless of concurrent demand, offering a highly efficient, space-saving solution to achieve California’s energy goals. However, its integration of heat recovery chillers, cooling-only chillers, cooling towers, and trim air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) creates growing control and sizing complexity. To overcome this, this study employs high-fidelity Modelica dynamic simulation to validate TIER control sequences and optimize equipment sizing. We translated the written Sequences of Operation into executable Control Description Language (CDL) to test logic against sub-hourly loads. This verification workflow successfully identified and resolved critical vulnerabilities, such as thermal storage freezing and equipment short-cycling, in a virtual environment prior to physical deployment. Then, the study analyzes TIER plant performance across three simulated building types in three locations, and a real building load profile, ensuring variety in heating and cooling loads, and simultaneity factors and explores sizing rules for the TES and ASHP capacity. The analysis shows that the TIER plant operates equipment efficiently leading to a plant SCOP of around 7.5 across all scenarios, higher than a traditional ASHP plant, and a viable pathway to de-risk complex system design and control through simulation to identify optimal designs that maximize energy efficiency, minimize operational costs, and ensure robust operation in varied environmental conditions, thereby facilitating the broader adoption of such a solution for large buildings.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Airport Ground Support Equipment Analysis

Ground support equipment (GSE) plays a critical role in providing services to aircraft at arrival and departure gates, ensuring smooth and efficient airport operations. As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and expand energy options, electric GSE (eGSE) is emerging as a promising solution. This project examines the integration of eGSE into airport operations, addressing key considerations such as vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We developed a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to evaluate energy demands and infrastructure requirements across more than 300 U.S. airports, providing actionable insights to support electrification planning and implementation. The study focuses on eight major types of GSE with commercially available electric counterparts: aircraft tractors, ground power units, baggage tractors, belt loaders, cargo loaders, catering trucks, lavatory trucks, and water trucks. Project results include annual charging load profiles, total energy consumption, and the charger and fleet requirements for each airport.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flight Arrival Data for Each Airport

This dataset contains flight arrival data for each airport, which serves as the input for generating load profiles and estimating energy needs and fleet and charger requirements. ![image](distribution-flight-arrivals.png) Distribution of annual flight arrivals across different airport categories.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Putting Our Industry's Data to Work: A Case Study of Large-Scale Data Aggregation: Preprint

With increasing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Building Automation System (BAS) controls, Internet of Things (IoT) network devices, and data-driven evaluation, measurement, and verification studies, the building sector is currently generating a staggering amount of energy-related data. In the right hands, these data sets can contribute to increased comfort and energy savings for building occupants and a more reliable electrical grid; however, due to a combination of factors, including significant privacy concerns, much of the data that are presently generated and stored are not used outside of basic operational applications. In the past year, our team has dedicated over 2,000 person-hours to accessing building energy data for a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office. We sought whole-building or end-use (e.g., lighting) timeseries data at the individual-building or equipment level where possible or aggregated information, such as timeseries averages and quartiles by building type (e.g., office, retail, hospital), where sharing individual building information was not an option. We are additionally working with IoT and BAS data sets to derive information important to the project. We have assembled an extensive data set that will enable the development of publicly available end-use load profiles to benefit the U.S. building and electricity industries. Here we present an overview of the data set that we have assembled to date, the motivators and approaches that got us here, and the lessons we learned through our efforts. We also discuss work underway that presents additional options for future data access.

building energy data↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Reactive Power on Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability and Lifetime

This paper performs research on predicting Photovoltaic (PV) inverters reliability and lifetime based on thermal cycling. Thermal cycling is considered the most important stressors in an inverter system. In order to achieve this, a detailed electro-thermal model of the PV inverter will be developed along with their controllers capable of providing voltage support through reactive power. An in-house inverter was built, and a PV inverter model was developed to match the physical inverter. The PV inverter electrothermal model was validated for different ambient temperatures to match the in-house inverter hardware. The in-house inverter was placed inside a thermal chamber to emulate different ambient temperatures and their losses and temperature rises within the system were measured. After the validation of the model, a reduced order model of the inverter will be implemented to translate the mission profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into load profile of junction temperatures of the switches. The junction temperature data will be used to identify the reliability indices and hence predict the useful lifetime of the inverter system. Along with the model to predict useful lifetime of the system, the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the system will be studied. The key observation in this paper shows that lifetime of the inverter decreases as the operating power factor moves away from unity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

OPFLearn.jl [SWR-21-109]

OPFLearn.jl is a Julia package for creating datasets for machine learning approaches to solving AC optimal power flow (AC OPF). It was developed to provide researchers with a standardized way to efficiently create AC OPF datasets that are representative of more of the AC OPF feasible load space compared to typical dataset creation methods. The OPFLearn dataset creation method uses a relaxed AC OPF formulation to reduce the volume of the unclassified input space throughout the dataset creation process. Over time this input space tightens around the relaxed AC OPF feasible region to increase the percentage of feasible load profiles found while uniformly sampling the input space. Load samples are processed using AC OPF formulations from PowerModels.jl. More information on the dataset creation method can be found in our publication, "OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets". To use OPFLearn.jl a PowerModels network data dictionary is required (can be loaded from Matpower ".m" files) to define the network the dataset is being created for.

Joswig-Jones, Trager↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic Dispatch Optimization of Multi-Unit SMR Site

With the increase of integration of variable renewable into the grid, grid resilience can be compromised without flexible electricity suppliers. Flexible operation of NPP can expand the scope of integration of new nuclear power plants in regions with high share of renewables. It also provides opportunity to increase profits through participation in ancillary services. In this research, NuScale modules are used as the case study. NuScale is an integrated pressurized water reactor with thermal power of 250 MWth. Having multiple units can provide higher flexibility in changing power levels and supplying the grid with electricity all year long. Additionally, load-following might perturbate the ordered sequence of refueling (every 24 months for NuScale). To maintain the 2 year refueling cycles, the loading patterns will need to be adjusted in a year-to-year basis, resulting in additional unnecessary costs. Another solution is to find the optimal outage schedule. This will also shift the focus of the planned outage to a more optimized predictive outages and maintenance. Results from short-term optimization (i.e., daily participation in energy and ancillary services markets) shows that average commitment to regulation down ancillary service markets during late night and early morning hours can increase revenues. Participating in upward reserves during pre-work commuting hours and early evening hours can also generate additional revenues due to high ramp up of electricity demand. Having multiple units at a single site can also help operate flexibly. Results from long-term optimization show that daily fluctuation in electric power is usually handled by few units while other units operate on base-load profile. It is possible to combine base-load operation with flexible operation to extend component remaining useful life in some units and find optimal outage schedule for the units.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

OPFLearn.jl v0.1.2 5/18/2023 [SWR-21-109]

Joswig-Jones, Trager↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laboratory Testing to Assess the Feasibility of Polyurethane Flat Belts for Marine Energy Applications

Polyurethane flat belts have received limited scientific attention as load-bearing elements in marine energy systems, particularly in applications involving dynamic tensile and bending loads. This study evaluates their potential as a replacement for traditional wire ropes in marine energy applications, with a focus on their ability to be integrated into winch-driven wave energy converters where bending and tensile stresses can make long-term operation difficult. Polyurethane belts are hypothesized to offer enhanced fatigue resistance due to their reduced thickness in the bending plane and therefore lower bending stresses. This research involves a series of tests utilizing the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Large-Amplitude Motion Platform to replicate the dynamic conditions experienced by mooring lines of winch-based point-absorber-type marine energy converters. The conditions tested include unequal coiling and uncoiling tensions and load cases resulting from the device’s unconstrained movement relative to its anchor, such as twisting and off-axis loading. Results from this study show that polyurethane flat belts can achieve more than 198 percent of the fatigue life of a conventional wire rope under similar load profiles. The stress concentrations resulting from off-axis loading and cumulative twist beyond the system’s allowable limits have been identified as potential failure modes for flat belt mooring lines used in winch-driven wave energy converters deployed in ocean environments. To mitigate these risks, the use of anti-spin systems and fairleads designed to accommodate off-axis loading while limiting twist accumulation is recommended.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗