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DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗

DOE OSTI2024

Control, Fault Management, and Grid Support Functionality of an MV AC-DC Solid State Transformer based EV Extreme Fast Charging Station

Electric vehicles (EVs) have become increasingly popular in recent times while revolutionizing the consumer and commercial transportation market. The development of charging infrastructure has become one of the priorities for increasing the adoption of EVs. Extreme fast charging (XFC) technology can reduce the so-called ’range anxiety’ of consumers as they significantly reduce the charging time. With the advent of wide band-gap (WBG) power devices and improvement in power electronic converters, medium voltage (MV) solid state transformer (SST) based XFC system has the potential to replace the traditional XFC stations because of the lower footprint, ease of installation, enhanced control feature, and better system efficiency. The control system design is one of the critical aspects of the SST development process. Careful consideration and detailed analysis are required to find out suitable control method for the SST based on its topology among different centralized and decentralized control architectures. Also, the control parameters selection and potential improvement to the transient response of the controller ought to be investigated. Another major concern of the SST is different types of internal fault which reduces the overall reliability of the XFC system. As a result, designing a robust protection system is essential. Among different fault modes, open circuit switch faults have received significant attention as an active research area because of their likelihood and severe effects on converters. Therefore, the power stages used in the XFC system require functional and accurate open circuit switch fault management methods. An equally significant aspect of this SST based XFC is its compatibility in a microgrid where there is no synchronous generator present. When the grid is not available, the XFC SSTs can provide grid forming capability and continue supplying the critical loads in islanded mode. The transition between grid connected and islanded mode, especially the grid resynchronization process has to be carefully performed for the safety of the microgrid components. The challenges posed by the aforementioned issues have inspired the work done in this dissertation. Here, a 13.2 kV, 1 MVA, AC/DC SST for the XFC system is examined and a comparative analysis is conducted to select the control architecture based on feasibility of implementation and performance. A detailed control parameter design process is demonstrated considering the sensor dynamics and delay. The selected decentralized control method is augmented by introducing a novel sensor-less load current feedforward method to provide better voltage regulation at the DC bus during a change of load. Next, in the fault management section, a hierarchical failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) is proposed to enable a systematic design of the internal fault protection of the XFC SST as there are limited examples in the literature regarding the analysis of the safety and design of the protection of a power electronic converter system. Novel open circuit switch fault management methods for the converters in the system are presented. Finally, XFC SST based MV microgrid operations in grid connected mode and islanded mode are explored. A secondary control method for grid resynchronization is presented and a design process of control parameters is shown to ensure the stability of the secondary voltage and frequency regulation.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Summary of DR4 and DR5 Data Products and Data Access

Two recent large data releases for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), called DR4 and DR5, are available for public access. These data include temperature and polarization maps that cover nearly half the sky at arcminute resolution in three frequency bands; lensing maps and component-separated maps covering ~ 2,100 deg 2 of sky; derived power spectra and cosmological likelihoods; a catalog of over 4,000 galaxy clusters; and supporting ancillary products including beam functions and masks. The data and products are described in a suite of ACT papers; here we provide a summary. In order to facilitate ease of access to these data we present a set of Jupyter IPython notebooks developed to introduce users to DR4, DR5, and the tools needed to analyze these data. The data products (excluding simulations) and the set of notebooks are publicly available on the NASA Legacy Archive for Microwave Background Data Analysis (LAMBDA); simulation products are available on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the nonlinear propagation of incoherent pulses

The nonlinear propagation of incoherent optical pulses is studied using a normalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation and statistical analysis, demonstrating various regimes that depend on the field’s coherence time and intensity. The quantification of the resulting intensity statistics using probability density functions shows that, in the absence of spatial effects, nonlinear propagation leads to an increase in the likelihood of high intensities in a medium with negative dispersion, and a decrease in a medium with positive dispersion. In the latter regime, nonlinear spatial self-focusing originating from a spatial perturbation can be mitigated, depending on the coherence time and amplitude of the perturbation. These results are benchmarked against the Bespalov–Talanov analysis applied to strictly monochromatic pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring subhalo effective density slopes from strong lensing observations with neural likelihood-ratio estimation

ABSTRACT Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter (DM) models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhaloes through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator to infer an effective density slope for populations of subhaloes. We demonstrate that our method is capable of harnessing the statistical power of multiple subhaloes (within and across multiple images) to distinguish between characteristics of different subhalo populations. The computational efficiency warranted by the neural likelihood-ratio estimator over traditional sampling enables statistical studies of DM perturbers and is particularly useful as we expect an influx of strong lensing systems from upcoming surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shear strain alters the structure and migration mechanism of self-interstitial atoms in copper

Here, we use atomistic modeling to show that externally applied shear strain causes the lowest energy self-interstitial atom (SIA) structure in copper (Cu) to change from a <100>-type dumbbell to a <110>-type dumbbell. Concurrently, SIA migration switches from the 3-D random walk characteristic of <100>-type dumbbells to a 1-D mechanism analogous to that of crowdion SIAs. Furthermore, the relative energies of these two dumbbell structures as a function of strain are well predicted using elastic dipole tensors computed at zero strain, indicating that examination of these tensors may be used to assess the likelihood of strain-induced SIA structure transitions in other materials. Changes in lowest energy SIA structures and associated migration mechanisms stand to impact predictions of SIA behavior in irradiated solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fitting Matérn smoothness parameters using automatic differentiation

The Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function is ubiquitous in the application of Gaussian processes to spatial statistics and beyond. Perhaps the most important reason for this is that the smoothness parameter $\nu$ gives complete control over the mean-square differentiability of the process, which has significant implications for the behavior of estimated quantities such as interpolants and forecasts. Unfortunately, derivatives of the Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function with respect to $\nu$ require derivatives of the modified second-kind Bessel function $K$ $\nu$ with respect to $\nu$. While closed form expressions of these derivatives do exist, they are prohibitively difficult and expensive to compute. For this reason, many software packages require fixing $\nu$ as opposed to estimating it, and all existing software packages that attempt to offer the functionality of estimating $\nu$ use finite difference estimates for $\partial$ $\nu$ $K$ $\nu$ . In this work, we introduce a new implementation of $K$$\nu$ that has been designed to provide derivatives via automatic differentiation (AD), and whose resulting derivatives are significantly faster and more accurate than those computed using finite differences. Here, we provide comprehensive testing for both speed and accuracy and show that our AD solution can be used to build accurate Hessian matrices for second-order maximum likelihood estimation in settings where Hessians built with finite difference approximations completely fail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Combined dark matter search towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi -LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi -LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section 〈σv〉 for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on 〈σv〉 than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence level observed limits reach 1.5×10 -24 cm 3 s -1 and 3.2×10 -25 cm 3 s -1 , respectively, in the τ + τ - annihilation channel for a DM mass of 2 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizers for stabilizing likelihood-free inference

A growing number of applications in particle physics and beyond use neural networks as unbinned likelihood ratio estimators applied to real or simulated data. Precision requirements on the inference tasks demand a high-level of stability from these networks, which are affected by the stochastic nature of training. We show how physics concepts can be used to stabilize network training through a physics-inspired optimizer. In particular, the energy conserving descent (ECD) optimization framework uses classical Hamiltonian dynamics on the space of network parameters to reduce the dependence on the initial conditions while also stabilizing the result near the minimum of the loss function. We develop a version of this optimizer known as , which has few free hyperparameters with limited ranges guided by physical reasoning. We apply to representative likelihood-ratio estimation tasks in particle physics and find on average that it out-performs the widely used Adam optimizer. We expect that ECD will be a useful tool for wide array of data-limited problems, where it is computationally expensive to exhaustively optimize hyperparameters and mitigate fluctuations with ensembling.

Monte Carlo methods↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inoculated biocrust cover and functions diverged over a gradient of soil textures and water availability

Restoring biological crust (biocrust) in disturbed drylands is challenging due to the difficult environmental conditions, such as limited soil moisture, low soil nutrients, and extreme temperatures, that impede growth. Understanding how the key components of biocrust—mosses, lichens, and cyanobacteria—react to different environmental factors informs the optimal timing, locations, and species composition for biocrust reintroduction, thereby increasing the likelihood of establishment. Here, we inoculated soils with a diverse range of biocrust organisms, analogous to seeding an area with diverse vascular plant seeds, and varied environmental conditions to observe how these changes influenced the development and functions of reintroduced biocrust. We found that by manipulating soil texture and time spent wet, we can change the proportional cover of biocrust within a restoration‐like setting. Specifically, we found that 4 months after inoculation, finer textured soils that received more water become dominated by moss cover, while coarser textured soils with less water remained dominated by cyanobacteria cover, and the interactions between texture and time spent wet strongly influenced cover. We found biocrust morphological group cover had a small, but detectable, effect on ecosystem functions (soil stability and nitrogenase activity, a proxy for nitrogen fixation), but that environmental conditions had a stronger impact on the functions we measured. Manipulative experiments in controlled environments, like this one, can help elucidate the mechanisms underlying the establishment rate and patterns of biocrusts post‐inoculation, and inform implementation of inoculations in the field.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the production of a $W$ boson in association with a charmed hadron in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = $\mathrm{13 TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

The production of a $W$ boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 140 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = $13$ $\mathrm{TeV}$ proton-proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The charm quark is tagged by the presence of a charmed hadron reconstructed with a secondary-vertex fit. The $W$ boson is reconstructed from the decay to either an electron or a muon and the missing transverse momentum present in the event. The charmed mesons reconstructed are D + → K – π + π + and D *+ → D 0 π + → (K – π + ) π + and the charge conjugate decays in the fiducial regions where $p$ T ($e,μ$) > 30 GeV, |$η(e,μ)$| < 2.5, $p$ T (D (*) ) > 8 GeV, and |$η$(D (*) )| < 2.2. The integrated and normalized differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the $W$ boson decay, and of the transverse momentum of the charmed hadron, are extracted from the data using a profile likelihood fit. The measured total fiducial cross sections are ${σ}_{fid}^{OS – SS}$ (W – + D + ) = 50.2 ± 0.2 ${(stat)}_{–2.3}^{+2.4}$(syst) pb, ${σ}_{fid}^{OS – SS}$ (W + + D – ) = 48.5 ± 0.2 ${(stat)}_{–2.2}^{+2.3}$(syst) pb, ${σ}_{fid}^{OS – SS}$ (W – + D *+ ) = 51.1 ± 0.4 ${(stat)}_{–1.8}^{+1.9}$(syst) pb, ${σ}_{fid}^{OS – SS}$ (W + + D *– ) = 50.0 ± 0.4 ${(stat)}_{–1.8}^{+1.9}$(syst) pb. Results are compared with the predictions of next-to-leading-order quantum chromodynamics calculations performed using state-of-the-art parton distribution functions. Additionally, the ratio of charm to anticharm production cross sections is studied to probe the $s$-$\bar{s}$ quark asymmetry. The ratio is found to be ${R}_{c}^{±}$= 0.971 ± 0.006 (stat) ± 0.011 (syst). The ratio and cross-section measurements are consistent with the predictions obtained with parton distribution function sets that have a symmetric $s$-$\bar{s}$ sea, indicating that any $s$-$\bar{s}$ asymmetry in the Bjorken-x region relevant for this measurement is small.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of parameter compression and Full-Modeling techniques with Velocileptors for DESI 2024 and beyond

In anticipation of forthcoming data releases of current and future spectroscopic surveys, we present the validation tests and analysis of systematic effects within velocileptors modeling pipeline when fitting mock data from the AbacusSummit N-body simulations. We compare the constraints obtained from parameter compression methods to the direct fitting (Full-Modeling) approaches of modeling the galaxy power spectra, and show that the ShapeFit extension to the traditional template method is consistent with the Full-Modeling method within the standard ΛCDM parameter space. We show the dependence on scale cuts when fitting the different redshift bins using the ShapeFit and Full-Modeling methods. We test the ability to jointly fit data from multiple redshift bins as well as joint analysis of the pre-reconstruction power spectrum with the post-reconstruction BAO correlation function signal. We further demonstrate the behavior of the model when opening up the parameter space beyond ΛCDM and also when combining likelihoods with external datasets, namely the Planck CMB priors. Finally, we describe different parametrization options for the galaxy bias, counterterm, and stochastic parameters, and employ the halo model in order to physically motivate suitable priors that are necessary to ensure the stability of the perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗