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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global warming intensity of biofuel derived from switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan

Energy crops for biofuel production, especially switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are of interest from a climate change perspective. Here, we use outputs from a crop growth model and life cycle assessment (LCA) to examine the global warming intensity (GWI; g CO 2 MJ –1 ) and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential (Mg CO 2 year –1 ) of biofuel systems based on a spatially explicit analysis of switchgrass grown on marginal land (abandoned former cropland) in Michigan, USA. We find that marginal lands in Michigan can annually produce over 0.57 hm 3 of liquid biofuel derived from nitrogen-fertilized switchgrass, mitigating 1.2–1.5 Tg of CO 2 year –1 . About 96% of these biofuels can meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (60% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared with conventional gasoline; GWI ≤37.2 g CO 2 MJ –1 ). Furthermore, 73%–75% of these biofuels are carbon-negative (GWI less than zero) due to enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, simulations indicate that SOC levels would fail to increase and even decrease on the 11% of lands where SOC stocks >>200 Mg C ha –1 , leading to carbon intensities greater than gasoline. Results highlight the strong climate mitigation potential of switchgrass grown on marginal lands as well as the needs to avoid carbon rich soils such as histosols and wetlands and to ensure that productivity will be sufficient to provide net mitigation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Carbon To Stone, Inc.

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Carbon To Stone (CTS), Inc. (Participant) will collaborate on a techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of CTS’s carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology under an awarded project from the Department of Energy’s Direct Air Capture Pre-Commercialization Technology Prize. CTS has developed a technological platform that captures carbon dioxide (CO2) from air and mineralizes it into durable carbonates using alkaline industrial residues such as steel slag and mine tailings. In addition, CTS’s technology uses electrochemistry to recover value-added energy critical metals (ECMs) from these residues. NETL has expertise in CDR TEA and LCA development. The collaboration between CTS and NETL aims to quantify the performance, cost and lifecycle impacts of CTS’s technology and produce LCA and TEA models that can accelerate development and deployment of this technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System

Create analytical framework to capture costs and benefits of the automated sorting into battery recycling including the development and deployment of various types of battery recycling technologies such as pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling. Li Industries, Inc. is a Virginia startup company focused on reinventing how lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are recycled. Li Industries is focused on developing direct LIB recycling and automated battery sorting technologies in order to reduce the environmental impact of the LIB lifecycle. This work is to be conducted in support of the American-Made Challenges Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Prize. Li Industries and NREL will work together to understand how novel technologies, such as those being developed by Li Industries, can impact the development and economics of the battery recycling industry. This voucher is being used to evaluate the profitability of an automated sorting system developed by Li Industries and the potential effect this increased value could have on the domestic lithium-ion battery (LIB) recycling industries in the United States. NREL has developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to project the future viability of the US LIB manufacturing and recycling industries under varying technoeconomic conditions and battery adoption scenarios over the coming decades. Additional logic was added to LIBRA to analyze the role automated sorting of recycling feedstock could play in the buildout of the industry and the impacts it has on the recovery of end-of-life (EOL) battery materials. This report summarizes the outcomes of this modeling analysis in the US context through a series of sensitivity analyses run for a range of values of a given input dimension and compared across the unsorted or automated sorting cases for LIB recycling feedstock. For greater detail on the process and analysis, the researchers are publishing a forthcoming journal article titled Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System for Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling and Mineral Recovery in the United States by Weigl, et al. In the event the article is not accepted by any currently seeking publication in academic or industry journal, it may be published by NREL. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope competencies, uses the laboratory's core competencies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Safety, Security, and Safeguards During Design and Operations: A Technical Assessment and Regulatory Considerations for Advanced Reactor and Advanced Fuel Fabrication Facilities

This report presents the current state of knowledge, technology, methodologies, and tools that could be implemented to realize the robust integration of safety, security, and safeguards (3S) for advanced nuclear reactors (ARs) and advanced nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This report was motivated by the global development of ARs which are expected to play a key role in meeting domestic energy and climate objectives. Domestically, with many ARs in the early design phase, the integration of 3S provides an opportunity to achieve risk reduction while using less resources than traditional light water reactors by leveraging interdependencies and synergies between each domain. In addition, domestic policy considerations encourage the convergence of each 3S domain through facility design and operations. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the interdependencies and integration between 3S across ARs and advanced reactor fuel cycle facilities’ lifecycles including design, construction, and operational phases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

NETL Natural Gas Lifecycle Model 2020 Rev1

This is the excel-based life cycle model that contains all the parameters and Monte Carlo simulation capabilities to model the techno-regions contained in the report: Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile. This is an update to a previous version (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/netl-natural-gas-lifecycle-model) and corrects a modeling error in the post-processing natural gas composition.

Calcium Chloride↗
DOE OSTI2026

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage in Hydrogen Production: A Combined Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment

This paper presents a coupled techno-economic and life cycle assessment of “blue” hydrogen to be produced at a hydrogen facility through steam methane reforming (SMR) equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Blue hydrogen was modeled in ChemCAD, while an integrated asset model represented the carbon capture and storage chain. An unabated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) configuration release 11.99 kgCO 2 -eq/ kgH 2 . Capturing ≥95% of the CO 2 stream lowers the carbon footprint to 6.59 kgCO 2 -eq/kgH2 but raises the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) from $\$$1.82/kgH 2 (no CO 2 capture) to $\$$3.22/kgH 2 ; the U.S. 45Q tax credit reduces it to $\$$2.59/kgH 2 . Incorporating CCS reduces the levelized net present value from $\$$0.87/kgH 2 to $\$$0.74/kgH 2 , owing to additional capture, transport, and storage costs. Supplying SMR with low-carbon electricity, especially nuclear, wind, or hydro, delivers the lowest carbon footprint relative to geothermal or grid mixes. Sensitivity analysis identifies that hydrogen sales price, internal rate of return, and CCS cost as the strongest economic levers, while electricity demand dominates residual lifecycle emissions. The results underscore a clear trade-off; substantial CO 2 reductions are achievable, but only with higher production costs, making supportive policy instruments, access to clean power, and robust hydrogen markets essential for large-scale deployment of blue hydrogen.

carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment of dry-processed Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles

Maxwell-type dry processing has emerged as a promising manufacturing technology for high-areal-loading Li-ion battery electrodes, offering a significant advantage by eliminating the use of the toxic and costly NMP solvent. This study developed a cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment model to evaluate the environmental impacts of this innovative technology, benchmarking the results against the conventional NMP-based technique for a configured 42 kWh NMC622-graphite battery pack. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the dry-processing method merits a 4.8% lower energy consumption and achieves environmental impacts up to 47.5% lower in 12 out of 13 categories, highlighting its environmental benefits compared with the NMP-based manufacturing processes.

Electrode↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recommendations for Secure Transport: Material Conveyance Physical Protection Technology

Nuclear material is at higher risk of theft and sabotage during transport than during any other phase of the nuclear fuel lifecycle. Nuclear materials are transported in the public domain where adversaries have an upper hand by taking advantage of the time and location of the theft or sabotage attempt. As such, even modest threat profiles for transport of nuclear and radioactive material can require substantial detection and delay measures to support timely response. Conveyance tracking augmented with technology that improves on-the-scene situational awareness at a remote monitoring center has been adopted as a de-facto standard approach for transportation security. At present, the extended tracking and situational awareness capabilities needed for a nuclear material shipment, as is provided by the purpose designed, Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System, do not exist in a single commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution. Typically, the COTS systems that excel in one area are deficient in other areas, presenting challenges to designing well-rounded, robust systems. Still, COTS solutions can offer the basic set of tracking and situational awareness capabilities by indicating last update time, current location, and route taken. By incorporating vehicle and driver performance measures via the vehicle’s controller area network (CAN bus) and video alongside other data streams allows telemetry and other shipment information to be assessed in novel ways.This paper describes the operation, capabilities and features of various conveyance protection systems and approaches, assesses emerging technologies and how they could be used through a unified interface, and enumerates additional ways to provide early detection using vehicle, onboard technologies, effective delay technologies and approaches and simple equipment to improve protection during transport.

Shannon, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2020

Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geographically Dependent Sustainability Indicators for Comparison of Conventional Vegetable Production to Controlled-Environment Agriculture

Many food system lifecycle analyses distill agricultural production and supply chain impacts into single-value sustainability metrics for various food categories. These studies provide an overview of the food supply system that highlight striking results such as the GHG impacts of meat production. The supply chain impacts of vegetable production occupy the middle ground; higher than average food loss and waste, lower than average overall energy use, etc. However, aggregated results obscure the sustainability implications of the location of food production, especially for vegetables. Moreover, the increasing instability of food production systems are not captured, as illustrated by a recent Washington Post article. According to a UC Merced study conducted for the state, California farmers left nearly 400,000 acres of agricultural land unplanted last year because of a lack of water. The result, the study found, was a direct economic cost to farmers of $1.1 billion and the loss of nearly 9,000 agricultural jobs. (The Washington Post, March 21, 2022.) Previous work quantified the food-energy-water nexus implications of transitioning vegetable production from large, centralized agricultural operations to smaller distributed production in controlled-environment farms (CEA). The importance of location-specific data is especially evident for water use. Water impacts of the food system are primarily local to the region where food is produced, water impacts vary significantly between locations, and water stress is a major concern in locations that currently host large agricultural operations. Location-specific data is needed to accurately assess the water impacts of transitioning to CEA. The location of farms in relation to consumers impacts transportation energy use, food loss and waste, and requirements for food processing (e.g., to reduce weight, preserve foods for long storage, and package foods to reduce damage and loss) Reducing transport is particularly relevant for agricultural products that could be grown in CEAs (fruits, vegetables, protein). Access to nutritious food is not evenly distributed in the population. Remote communities, communities in harsh environments, and economically-disadvantaged communities often have poor access to healthy foods. CEA is ideally suited to these environments. However, the energy and water use of CEA, while in many respects lower overall than conventional supply chains, are concentrated within communities and could have significant local impacts. This paper reports on development of sustainability metrics that seek to capture the tradeoffs between the current supply chain and a CEA supply chain for vegetables; focusing on the location-dependent implications of water use, the transition from largely fossil fuel based energy use to electricity, and the food access, resilience and wellbeing implications of urban versus rural food production.

controlled-environment agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clarifying remotely-retrieved precipitation of shallow marine clouds from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V

Precipitation is a key process within the shallow cloud lifecycle. The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) campaign included the first deployment of a 94 GHz Doppler radar and 532 nm lidar. Despite a larger sampling volume, initial mean radar/lidar retrieved rain rates (Schwartz et al. 2019) based on the upward-pointing remote sensor datasets are systematically less than those measured by in-situ precipitation probes in the cumulus regime. Subsequent retrieval improvements produce rainrates that compare better to in-situ values, but still underestimate. Retrieved shallow cumulus drop sizes can remain too small and too few, with an overestimated shape parameter narrowing the raindrop size distribution too much. Three potential causes for the discrepancy are explored: the gamma functional fit to the dropsize distribution, attenuation by rain and cloud water, and an underaccounting of Mie dampening of the reflectivity. A truncated exponential fit may represent the dropsizes below a showering cumulus cloud more realistically, although further work would be needed to fully evaluate the impact of a different dropsize representation upon the retrieval. The rain attenuation is within the measurement uncertainty of the radar. Mie dampening of the reflectivity is shown to be significant, in contrast to previous stratocumulus campaigns with lighter rain rates, and may be difficult to constrain well with the remote measurements. An alternative approach combines an a priori determination of the dropsize distribution width based on the in-situ data with the mean radar Doppler velocity and reflectivity. This can produce realistic retrievals, although a more comprehensive assessment is needed to better characterize the retrieval errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗