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The challenges of detecting and attributing ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems

Abstract A substantial body of research now exists demonstrating sensitivities of marine organisms to ocean acidification (OA) in laboratory settings. However, corresponding in situ observations of marine species or ecosystem changes that can be unequivocally attributed to anthropogenic OA are limited. Challenges remain in detecting and attributing OA effects in nature, in part because multiple environmental changes are co-occurring with OA, all of which have the potential to influence marine ecosystem responses. Furthermore, the change in ocean pH since the industrial revolution is small relative to the natural variability within many systems, making it difficult to detect, and in some cases, has yet to cross physiological thresholds. The small number of studies that clearly document OA impacts in nature cannot be interpreted as a lack of larger-scale attributable impacts at the present time or in the future but highlights the need for innovative research approaches and analyses. We summarize the general findings in four relatively well-studied marine groups (seagrasses, pteropods, oysters, and coral reefs) and integrate overarching themes to highlight the challenges involved in detecting and attributing the effects of OA in natural environments. We then discuss four potential strategies to better evaluate and attribute OA impacts on species and ecosystems. First, we highlight the need for work quantifying the anthropogenic input of CO2 in coastal and open-ocean waters to understand how this increase in CO2 interacts with other physical and chemical factors to drive organismal conditions. Second, understanding OA-induced changes in population-level demography, potentially increased sensitivities in certain life stages, and how these effects scale to ecosystem-level processes (e.g. community metabolism) will improve our ability to attribute impacts to OA among co-varying parameters. Third, there is a great need to understand the potential modulation of OA impacts through the interplay of ecology and evolution (eco–evo dynamics). Lastly, further research efforts designed to detect, quantify, and project the effects of OA on marine organisms and ecosystems utilizing a comparative approach with long-term data sets will also provide critical information for informing the management of marine ecosystems.

Fisheries↗

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on (1) potential for acclimation, (2) response to elevated CO 2 , (3) role of the microbiome, and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Roadmap on energy harvesting materials

Ambient energy harvesting has great potential to contribute to sustainable development and address growing environmental challenges. Converting waste energy from energy-intensive processes and systems (e.g. combustion engines and furnaces) is crucial to reducing their environmental impact and achieving net-zero emissions. Compact energy harvesters will also be key to powering the exponentially growing smart devices ecosystem that is part of the Internet of Things, thus enabling futuristic applications that can improve our quality of life (e.g. smart homes, smart cities, smart manufacturing, and smart healthcare). To achieve these goals, innovative materials are needed to efficiently convert ambient energy into electricity through various physical mechanisms, such as the photovoltaic effect, thermoelectricity, piezoelectricity, triboelectricity, and radiofrequency wireless power transfer. By bringing together the perspectives of experts in various types of energy harvesting materials, this Roadmap provides extensive insights into recent advances and present challenges in the field. Additionally, the Roadmap analyses the key performance metrics of these technologies in relation to their ultimate energy conversion limits. Building on these insights, the Roadmap outlines promising directions for future research to fully harness the potential of energy harvesting materials for green energy anytime, anywhere.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Root genetics in the field to understand drought adaptation and carbon sequestration (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

For all crop plants, roots play a critical role in growth. Roots anchor the plants, and are the primary site of nutrient and water uptake. Roots are also the main source of C to soil in the form of root tissues and exudates, and thus greatly influence SOM stocks. To perform these functions, primary roots extend into soil, producing a network of branching roots of characteristic form, known as its root system architecture (RSA). RSA varies among species, and among varieties within a species that are adapted to different environments. Root traits are major targets for the second green revolution because of their potential to improve crop productivity, increase drought tolerance and nutrient acquisition, and increase C capture of soil. Improving the quality of roots in maize will be particularly valuable, since this crop is planted on over 92 million acres annually in the US. The future sustainability of agricultural systems relies on their ability to enhance soil organic matter (SOM) storage and reduce GHG emissions, while maintaining or enhancing productivity. This program had two components, Sensors and Models. For the first component, we designed and built a high-throughput phenotyping platform for root pulling of maize plants. This eliminated the physical labor of manually pulling up plants and reduced the number of personnel required down to one. The standardized pulling mechanism allowed recording force curves during the pulling process, providing additional information. We validated that the maximum force for pulling the root system was well-correlated with the root system mass and provided root crowns for further RSA analysis. These root crowns identified significant correlations with 2D root area and root depth, along with 3D root volume, total root length and number of root tips. We then used this system for field-based studies in maize on the genetics of root system architecture and its relation to nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE), including using lines relevant to the Corteva breeding program. Varieties were also evaluated at Corteva sites in the cornbelt and Danforth farm in Missouri, to establish responses across sites. From these studies we have identified genetic loci associated with root traits and created mutant lines for these loci and correlations of root traits with NUE. For the Models component, we worked to incorporate root and soil characteristics into the MEMS 2.0 soil and ecosystem biogeochemical model. Existing soil C models, such as Century, are unable to represent specific root trait interactions with the soil environment and therefore to accurately forecast the potential C sequestration benefits of root breeding under different climatic and soil type conditions. We have developed the MEMS 2.0 ecosystem biogeochemical model to improve quantification of farm-scale soil carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. The new knowledge and large datasets produced by this project will be used to develop and drive an innovative model capable of forecasting the impacts on soil C stocks and nutrient dynamics. An innovation was to use the empirical data from the field studies (in 1, above) to model genetic variation in nitrogen use efficiencies and soil C input. Our work demonstrated that maize root-derived C rapidly replaces existing soil C and after 3 years of continuous maize, up to 20% of soil organic C in the topsoil (0-15cm) and 3% in the subsoil (15-30cm) was contributed by maize. However, this contribution did not entirely represent a net increase. Root C contribution to soil was affected by maize genetics. We have analyzed soils derived from the CSU field trials for C and N stocks, in the different soil physical fractions represented by the MEMS model, using both physical fractionation with elemental analyses, and Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy. Data will be used to link crop nitrogen use efficiencies with soil C sequestration and provide data to bridge the field trials with the model development, for verification of model predictions. The project had a number of successful outcomes: we have used the new phenotyping platform to identify new genetic loci that can enhance root phenotypes; we have partnered with multiple maize seed companies phenotype varieties in their breeding programs; we have developed the MEMS model that can help inform industry on the potential for carbon sequestration in the agricultural sector, and which is now available at the CSU Soil Carbon Solutions Center for use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Land-Use Effects on Landscape Patterns and Biological Diversity in Pacific North Forests: 1972-1991

While there is widespread recognition of the importance of preserving biological diversity there is considerable uncertainty about how to map current patterns of diversity and monitor changes through time. Ground-based approaches are impractical for examining regional patterns of biological diversity, for monitoring change, and they may actually overlook important higher-order phenomena. Thus, there is a critical need for innovative techniques to examine land-use effects on biological diversity at the landscape and regional scales. In this project, we have used satellite-based remote sensing to examine land-use effects on forest ecosystems in the Pacific NorthWest region (PNW) of the U.S.A. Rates and patterns of forest change throughout the region were quantified for the period from 1972 to 1993. This information was then used to map changes in the abundance and distribution of potential habitat for selected vertebrate species. The results of this project will be useful for identifying "keystone" stands that are important in maintaining habitat connectivity at the regional scale and for evaluating the impact of future land-use on vertebrate diversity throughout the region. The approaches developed here will also be useful in other forested regions throughout the world.

Wallin, David O.↗

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Next-Generation Optical Sensing Technologies for Exploring Ocean Worlds - NASA FluidCam, MiDAR, and NeMO-Net

We highlight three emerging NASA optical technologies that enhance our ability to remotely sense, analyze, and explore ocean worlds–FluidCam and fluid lensing, MiDAR, and NeMO-Net. Fluid lensing is the first remote sensing technology capable of imaging through ocean waves without distortions in 3D at sub-cm resolutions. Fluid lensing and the purpose-built FluidCam CubeSat instruments have been used to provide refraction-corrected 3D multispectral imagery of shallow marine systems from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Results from repeat 2013 and 2016 airborne fluid lensing campaigns over coral reefs in American Samoa present a promising new tool for monitoring fine-scale ecological dynamics in shallow aquatic systems tens of square kilometers in area. MiDAR is a recently-patented active multispectral remote sensing and optical communications instrument which evolved from FluidCam. MiDAR is being tested on UAVs and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to remotely sense living and non-living structures in light-limited and analog planetary science environments. MiDAR illuminates targets with high-intensity narrowband structured optical radiation to measure an object’s spectral reflectance while simultaneously transmitting data. MiDAR is capable of remotely sensing reflectance at fine spatial and temporal scales, with a signal-to-noise ratio 10-10(exp 3) times higher than passive airborne and spaceborne remote sensing systems, enabling high-framerate multispectral sensing across the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared spectrum. Preliminary results from a 2018 mission to Guam show encouraging applications of MiDAR to imaging coral from airborne and underwater platforms whilst transmitting data across the air-water interface. Finally, we share NeMO-Net, the Neural Multi-Modal Observation & Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment. NeMO-Net is a machine learning technology under development that exploits high-resolution data from FluidCam and MiDAR for augmentation of low-resolution airborne and satellite remote sensing. NeMO-Net is intended to harmonize the growing diversity of 2D and 3D remote sensing with in situ data into a single open-source platform for assessing shallow marine ecosystems globally using active learning for citizen-science based training. Preliminary results from four-class Q17 coral classification have an accuracy of 94.4%. Together, these maturing technologies present promising scalable, practical, and cost-efficient innovations that address current observational and technological challenges in optical sensing of marine systems.

Ved Chirayath↗

UAM Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) UAM Maturity Level (UML) 4

This Vision ConOps is intended as a foundation to engage members of the UAM community and provide a consensus on the future vision of UAM operations. It provides a concept for more detailed discussion and a basis for the exploration of ideas using a common framework to inform the continued development and integration of UAM as part of the broader transportation system. Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses a range of innovative aviation technologies (small drones, electric aircraft, automated air traffic management, etc.) that are transforming aviation’s role in everyday life, including the movement of goods and people. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft, providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. This concept has generated tremendous interest and industry investment. UAM envisages a future in which advanced technologies and new operational procedures enable practical, cost-effective air travel as an integral mode of transportation in metropolitan areas. It represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selected UAM as the initial goal of its AAM efforts and the focus of this Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) document. UAM Community Vision ConOps: This Vision ConOps effort was led by experts from NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Deloitte’s Ecosystem Advisory Group (a cohort of advisers with aviation, aerospace, and regulatory expertise). To develop this Vision ConOps, NASA, FAA, and Deloitte built upon the current body of aeronautical research and consulted with more than 100 stakeholder organizations. This UAM community includes entities ranging from legacy aviation leaders to innovators and new market entrants. Stakeholders consulted included the federal government, state and local government, aerospace original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), local transportation organizations, prospective UAM operators, academia, industry standards-setting bodies, airports, service suppliers, and others (as described in Appendix G). This input was captured through the following methods: • A series of more than two dozen interviews with industry experts, federal regulators, state and local governments, and industry trade groups provided insight into the challenges of UAM integration into the National Airspace System (NAS), as well as technology developments and a variety of perspectives as to how UAM systems will integrate. • A series of two-day community workshops enabling active, detailed engagement of nearly 100 industry, academic, federal, and state stakeholder individuals. These workshops, hosted by NASA and Deloitte, explored UAM concepts in detail, and stakeholders were invited to collaboratively analyze and propose solutions to some of the greatest conceptual challenges behind UAM at an intermediate state. • A review of more than 160 sources of UAM literature from across government, industry, and academia, which are listed in Appendix H. • The public sharing of workshop input and document drafts for review and input across the UAM community. Feedback in the form of more than 1,000 comments and inputs on the document was received from industry groups, individual companies, academia, and government (federal, state, and local), among others. Although effort was made to incorporate inputs from across the UAM stakeholder group, not all comments could ultimately be incorporated in this version. The team resolved conflicting comments or ideas while maintaining consistency with the known direction of regulators and ensuring the document was coherent and consistent. It is recognized that this is a rapidly evolving area and that concepts will likely change over time; as such, this Vision ConOps is a living document and is expected to evolve as concepts mature. The ConOps does, however, provide a vision of UAM concepts and solutions based on the broad insights from across the UAM stakeholder community at the time of its publication and is intended to serve as a UAM North Star for continued research and development of UAM. As a broad Vision ConOps, is not a detailed engineering document; rather, it focuses primarily on outlining a broad, high-level vision across all aspects of a UAM transportation system.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗

Design, test, and applications of the Alaska SAR Facility

The key science requirements, the overall design, and the innovative testing approaches that have been used to ensure the functionality of the Alaska SAR Facility (ASF) are described. The facility is to play an important role in the remote sensing applications of Arctic oceanography, geology, glaciology, hydrology, and ecosystem processes. Attention is given to the ASF's three major components: the Receiving Ground Station, the SAR Processing System, and the Archive and Operations System. The ASF hardware configuration and software support, through extensive design and implementaton reviews, were shown to satisfy the initial memorandum of agreement first initiated by NASA for the establishment of a receiving ground station and image processing facility at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and also to satisfy the science objectives formulated by the prelaunch Science Working team. The testing strategy and techniques used in the implementation of the ASF to assure functionality is outlined. The test structures, approach, and environment are considered.

Berwin, R. W.↗

Mic-hackathon 2024: hackathon on machine learning for electron and scanning probe microscopy

Microscopy is one of the primary sources of information on materials structure and functionality at the nanometer and atomic scales. The data generated through microscopy is often contained in well-structured datasets, enriched with extensive metadata and sample histories, although not always with the same level of detail or storage format. The broad incorporation of data management plans by major funding agencies ensures the preservation and accessibility of this data. However, deriving insights from these rich datasets remains challenging due to the lack of established code ecosystems, standardized benchmarks, and integration strategies. Correspondingly, the efficiency of data usage is very low, and time expenditures at the analysis stage are enormous. In addition to post-acquisition data analysis, the emergence of application programming interfaces by major microscope manufacturers now creates opportunities for real-time ML-based data analytics to enable automated decision making, and particularly ML-agent controlled real-time microscope operation. Despite these opportunities, there is a significant gap in integrating the ML community with the broader microscopy community, limiting the value that these methods bring to physics and materials discovery and materials optimization. Hackathons address these challenges by fostering collaboration between ML experts and microscopy professionals, encouraging the development of innovative solutions that leverage ML for microscopy and preparing the workforce of the future both for microscopy-intensive domains areas, instrument manufacturers, and ML scientists interested in real world applications for fundamental research, materials optimization, and manufacturing. The hackathon generated benchmark datasets and digital twins of microscopes that further contribute to the development of the field and establish data analysis ecosystems. All the codes can be found at GitHub(https://github.com/KalininGroup/Mic-hackathon-2024-codes-publication/tree/1.0.0.1) and Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/15579940).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Wavelet Filter Banks for Super-Resolution SAR Imaging

This paper discusses Innovative wavelet-based filter banks designed to enhance the analysis of super resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images using parametric spectral methods and signal classification algorithms, SAR finds applications In many of NASA's earth science fields such as deformation, ecosystem structure, and dynamics of Ice, snow and cold land processes, and surface water and ocean topography. Traditionally, standard methods such as Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) and Inverse Fast-Fourier Transform (IFFT) have been used to extract Images from SAR radar data, Due to non-parametric features of these methods and their resolution limitations and observation time dependence, use of spectral estimation and signal pre- and post-processing techniques based on wavelets to process SAR radar data has been proposed. Multi-resolution wavelet transforms and advanced spectral estimation techniques have proven to offer efficient solutions to this problem.

Sheybani, Ehsan O.↗

Model Based Systems Engineering on the Europa Mission Concept Study

At the start of 2011, the proposed Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO) mission was staffing up in expectation of becoming an official project later in the year for a launch in 2020. A unique aspect of the pre-project work was a strong emphasis and investment on the foundations of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). As so often happens in this business, plans changed: NASA's budget and science priorities were released and together fundamentally changed the course of JEO. As a result, it returned to being a study task whose objective is to propose more affordable ways to accomplish the science. As part of this transition, the question arose as to whether it could continue to afford the investment in MBSE. In short, the MBSE infusion has survived and is providing clear value to the study effort. By leveraging the existing infrastructure and a modest additional investment, striking advances in the capture and analysis of designs using MBSE were achieved. In the process, the need to remain relevant in the new environment has brought about a wave of innovation and progress. The effort has reaffirmed the importance of architecting. It has successfully harnessed the synergistic relationship of architecting to system modeling. We have found that MBSE can provide greater agility than traditional methods. We have also found that a diverse 'ecosystem' of modeling tools and languages (SysML, Mathematica, even Excel) is not only viable, but an important enabler of agility and adaptability. This paper will describe the successful application of MBSE in the dynamic environment of early mission formulation, the significant results produced and lessons learned in the process.

Bayer, Todd J.↗

Designing the Design Process for Early Problem Discovery for a Complex Aeronautics Systems Challenge

The earliest stage in the innovation lifecycle, problem formulation, is crucial for setting direction in an innovation effort. When faced with an interesting problem, engineers commonly assume the approximate solution area and focus on ideating innovative solutions. However, in this project, NASA and their contracted partner, Accenture, collaboratively conducted problem discovery to ensure that solutioning efforts were focused on the right problems, for the right users, and addressing the most critical needs—in this case, exploring weather tolerant operations (WTO) to further urban air mobility (UAM) – known as UAM WTO. The project team leveraged generative, qualitative methods to understand the ecosystem, players, and where challenges in the industry are inhibiting development. The complexity of the problem area required that the team constantly observe and iterate on problem discovery, effectively “designing the design process.” This report discusses the approach, methodologies, and selected results, including insights on the application of early-stage design methodologies to a complex, system-level problem.

Problem formulation↗

Landsat Science: 40 Years of Innovation and Opportunity

Landsat satellites have provided unparalleled Earth-observing data for nearly 40 years, allowing scientists to describe, monitor and model the global environment during a period of time that has seen dramatic changes in population growth, land use, and climate. The success of the Landsat program can be attributed to well-designed instrument specifications, astute engineering, comprehensive global acquisition and calibration strategies, and innovative scientists who have developed analytical techniques and applications to address a wide range of needs at local to global scales (e.g., crop production, water resource management, human health and environmental quality, urbanization, deforestation and biodiversity). Early Landsat contributions included inventories of natural resources and land cover classification maps, which were initially prepared by a visual interpretation of Landsat imagery. Over time, advances in computer technology facilitated the development of sophisticated image processing algorithms and complex ecosystem modeling, enabling scientists to create accurate, reproducible, and more realistic simulations of biogeochemical processes (e.g., plant production and ecosystem dynamics). Today, the Landsat data archive is freely available for download through the USGS, creating new opportunities for scientists to generate global image datasets, develop new change detection algorithms, and provide products in support of operational programs such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD). In particular, the use of dense (approximately annual) time series to characterize both rapid and progressive landscape change has yielded new insights into how the land environment is responding to anthropogenic and natural pressures. The launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) satellite in 2012 will continue to propel innovative Landsat science.

Cook, Bruce D.↗

Developing Concepts of Operations Using Multi-Step Tool Techniques With Large Language Models

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Air Mobility Pathfinders (AMP) project is developing and evaluating concepts of operations (ConOps) for safe, secure, and scalable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The AMP project’s Operational Concepts, Architecture, and Requirements Integration (OCARI) Team is using a Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) approach for integration, interoperability, and traceability of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) ecosystems centered around urban air taxi services. The team’s goal is to define structures and behaviors needed for system feasibility, readiness, and interoperability, establish a UAM knowledge base, and trace and validate assumptions and requirements relevant to AAM. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is spearheading an innovative digital engineering approach to integrate, communicate, and facilitate the research of multi-modal transportation systems. The Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) is a concept being developed that ties the workflows of Project Managers (PM), Principal Investigators (PI), and System Engineers together across organizational boundaries. It does so through the management of an information database defined by mathematical, data science, and system engineering principles. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms play a key role in this concept by extracting meaningful knowledge from relational and graph databases, document repositories, and system artifacts, which the human user leverages to greatly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their research. Recent advancements in the field of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically models trained for tool use, such as Command-R , now allow for the reliable implementation of single-step and multi-step tool-centric systems. These techniques provide the LLM with a set of tools, in our case Python functions, that can be called on to answer a much wider range of questions compared to LLMs implemented using a traditional single-source or Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) approach. Through this method, the LLM can pull information from multiple data sources, such as relational or graph databases, document repositories, application programming interfaces (APIs), and SysML artifacts depending on the user’s question. The LLM can also output the information in a variety of different formats, using output generation tools, such as CSV, UML, or SysML artifacts. Additionally, tools can be assigned roles and can work together to provide answers to queries in an “agent” like approach, similar to that implemented by Microsoft’s AutoGen framework where different agents can converse with each other to accomplish tasks. Previously, our team developed a chatbot system with “agent like” functionality in the form of different “modes” the user could select from a user interface (UI), this architecture can be seen on the left in figure 1. Three different modes were implemented, the first mode allowed the LLM to utilize the structures and algorithms within a graph database to trace UAM requirements. The second mode gave the LLM access to a vector search capable of providing relevant information from thousands of document pages related to UAM ConOps and requirements. The third mode served as a general assistant where users could enter open-ended questions and custom prompts to utilize the LLM for different use-cases. This system improved the process surrounding generating and analyzing information related to UAM requirements, however, the implementation provided a clunky user experience. Users were required to know what mode to select within the UI in advance before entering their question to the selected tool. Moreover, the different tools were isolated from each other, they lacked bidirectional links that would allow for tools to collaborate to generate better responses. Our team is working on a new architecture, seen on the right in the below figure, with the goal to address many of the UX shortcomings of our original system while improving the accuracy and depth of responses from the LLM. This new system will automatically select the appropriate tool to use based off the user’s question. Each tool will be capable of calling on any of the other tools available to the LLM, resulting in a collaborative pipeline where tools can pass data between other tools until enough data is received to generate an answer to the user’s question. Using a locally deployed, open-source, LLM, the NASA OCARI team, in collaboration with Collins Aerospace, will implement a prototype application that will bridge knowledge across multiple sources to assist System Engineers (SEs) with requirements discovery and tracing, research question and use case identification, and assumption validation. Such a system will also allow SEs to more easily, and intuitively, explore the AAM ecosystem, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the SE's research and decision-making processes surrounding ConOps development and validation. In this session, our team will provide a video demonstration of our new prototype architecture in action. We will also present an overview of our prototype system architecture and talk about its advantages over traditional LLM deployments along with how those advantages can provide additional value to the field of System Engineering.

systems engineering↗

CyanoSCape: Freshwater Phytoplankton and Floating Aquatic Vegetation Biodiversity

In Southern Africa, the impacts of anthropogenic activities on biodiversity and ecosystem services are exacerbated by the climate crisis. Rapid land use change and the lack of emphasis on environmentally sustainable agricultural practices has hindered hydrological processes and compromised riverine and aquatic ecosystems. This poses obvious risks to natural/indigenous aquatic biodiversity and long-term ecosystem sustainability. Phytoplankton serve as the foundation of the freshwater food web with zooplankton as consumers, which feed fish, invertebrates, and so on up the food chain that comprises the biodiversity of the freshwater system that serves as habitat for biodiversity as well. The diversity of phytoplankton (microscopic organisms) includes photosynthesizing bacteria (cyanobacteria), plant-like diatoms, dinoflagellates, and green algae. Nutrient run-off from agricultural fertilizers and urban overflows, warm temperatures, abundant light availability and compromised hydrological systems provide an ideal environment for cyanobacteria to flourish. Increased prevalence of cyanobacteria, due to both natural and anthropogenic causes, can incur significant effects on the biodiversity of the overall phytoplankton assemblage. These bloom forming algae can significantly outcompete other phytoplankton classes in warmer and eutrophic waters where they are quick to dominate the freshwater system. Eutrophication and toxic cyanobacteria blooms (cyanoHABs) in the inland waters of the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR) incur significant effects on the biodiversity of the overall phytoplankton assemblage and provide a favorable environment forthe overgrowth of floating aquatic vegetation (FAV), which is often invasive and associated with reduced aquatic biodiversity. The algal biodiversity of the GCFR’s freshwater systems is not well characterized. Hyperspectral optical observations are expected to facilitate the improvement of current phytoplankton functional type retrievals significantly, as the sensitivity is sufficient that the distinctive, fine spectral features of different phytoplankton groups can be detected. This will enable testing emerging algorithms and inform the development of new algorithms for use with upcoming hyperspectral satellite missions in this decade. Innovations in optical sensor sensitivity and next generation machine learning capabilities considerably enhance the potential for accurate and rapid detection of phytoplankton, namely the presence, extent, and diversity of cyanobacteria present in cyanoHABs and additionally, invasive FAV. Upcoming hyperspectral satellite missions such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE), and the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission (CHIME) will provide imagery with unprecedented spectral and spatial resolution which will further enable the discovery of linkages between the seasonality and dynamics of HABs and FAV. The overarching goal of this project is to utilize hyperspectral data, with recently developed and next-generation algorithms, to determine the biodiversity of freshwater systems phytoplankton assemblage with emphasis on genus level distinction, as well as monitor the prevalence and diversity of FAV.

CyanoSCape↗

Novel technologies for emission reduction complement conservation agriculture to achieve negative emissions from row-crop production

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture’s productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. Here, to reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO 2 e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗