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At least 127 records · Page 7

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗

Analysis of Experimental Ice Accretion Data and Assessment of a Thermodynamic Model During Ice Crystal Icing

This paper evaluates a thermodynamic ice crystal icing model that has been previously presented to describe the possible mechanisms of icing within the core of a turbofan jet engine. The model functions between two distinct ice accretions based on a surface energy balance: freeze-dominated icing and melt-dominated icing. Freeze-dominated icing occurs when liquid water (from melted ice crystals) freezes and accretes on a surface along with the existing ice of the impinging water and ice mass. This freeze-dominated icing is characterized as having strong adhesion to the surface. The amount of ice accretion is partially dictated by a freeze fraction, which is the fraction of impinging liquid water that freezes. Melt-dominated icing occurs as unmelted ice on a surface accumulates. This melt-dominated icing is characterized by weakly bonded surface adhesion. The amount of ice accumulation is partially dictated by a melt fraction, which is the fraction of impinging ice crystals that melts. Experimentally observed ice growth rates suggest that only a small fraction of the impinging ice remains on the surface, implying a mass loss mechanism such as splash, runback, bounce, or erosion. The fraction of mass loss must be determined in conjunction with the fraction of freezing liquid water or fraction of melting ice on an icing surface for a given ice growth rate. This mass loss parameter, however, along with the freeze fraction and melt fraction, are the only experimental parameters that are currently not measured directly. Using icing growth rates from ice crystal icing experiments, a methodology that has been previously proposed is used to determine these unknown parameters. This work takes ice accretion data from tests conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Glenn Research Center in 2018 that examined the fundamental physics of ice crystal icing. This paper continues evaluation of the thermodynamic model from a previous effort, with additions to the model that account for sub-freezing temperatures that have been observed at the leading edge of the airfoil during icing. The predicted temperatures were generally in good agreement with measured temperatures. Other key findings include the total wet-bulb temperature being a good first order indicator of whether icing is freeze-dominated (sub-freezing values) or melt-dominated (above freezing). Maximum sticking efficiency values, the fraction of impinging mass that adheres to a surface, was calculated to be about 0.2, and retained this maximum value for a range of melt ratios (0.3 to 0.65 and possibly higher), which is defined as the ratio of liquid water content to total water content. Higher air velocities reduced the maximum sticking efficiency and shifted the icing regime to higher melt ratio values. Finally, the leading edge ice accretion angle was found to be related to ice growth (lower growth rates for smaller angles) and melt ratio (smaller melt ratios resulted in smaller angles, likely due to erosion effects).

Ice-Crystal Icing↗

Aircraft icing research at NASA

Research activity is described for: ice protection systems, icing instrumentation, experimental methods, analytical modeling for the above, and in flight research. The renewed interest in aircraft icing has come about because of the new need for All-Weather Helicopters and General Aviation aircraft. Because of increased fuel costs, tomorrow's Commercial Transport aircraft will also require new types of ice protection systems and better estimates of the aeropenalties caused by ice on unprotected surfaces. The physics of aircraft icing is very similar to the icing that occurs on ground structures and structures at sea; all involve droplets that freeze on the surfaces because of the cold air. Therefore all icing research groups will benefit greatly by sharing their research information.

Reinmann, J. J.↗

Observing the polar regions from space

The use of active and passive microwave sensors to provide information on the ice cover in the earth's polar regions is described, along with the ice characteristics that can be measured by such techniques. The continental ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica represent vast reservoirs of fresh water that can significantly impact sea level if the ice sheets are changing in size. Satellite remote sensing gives information on: sea ice extent and physical characteristics; detailed images of ice flows and open-water leads within the ice pack; sea-ice movement; zones of summer melting and snow-accumulation rates on the continental ice sheets; accurate estimates of ice-surface elevation and detection of zones on the ice sheet that are either thickening or thinning; accurate, all-weather mapping of ice coastlines and large crevasses, and estimates of ice discharge rates from the ice sheets.

Thomas, R. H.↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Thermodynamic Ice Crystal Icing Model Using Experimental Ice Accretion Data

This paper presents the evaluation of a thermodynamic ice crystal icing model, previously presented to describe the possible mechanisms of icing within the core of a turbofan jet engine. It has been proposed that there are two types of distinct ice accretions based on a surface energy balance: freeze-dominated icing and melt-dominated icing. In the former, ice accretion occurs where a freeze fraction (0 to 1) of melted ice crystals freezes on a surface, along with the existing ice of the impinging water and ice mass. This freeze-dominated icing is characterized by having strong adhesion to the surface. In the latter, icing occurs from accumulated unmelted ice on a surface, where a melt fraction (0 to 1) dictates the amount of unmelted impinged ice. This melt-dominated icing is characterized by weakly bonded surface adhesion. The experimentally observed ice growth rates suggest that only a small fraction of the impinging ice remains on the surface, implying a mass loss mechanism such as splash, runback, bounce, or erosion. This mass loss parameter must be determined in conjunction with the fraction of freezing liquid water or fraction of melting ice on an icing surface. This loss parameter, however, along with the freeze and melt fraction, are the only experimental parameters that are currently not measured directly. Using reported icing growth rates from published ice crystal icing experiments, a methodology is proposed to determine these unknown parameters. This work takes reported ice accretion data from tests conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 2016 and tests NASA collaborated on with the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada in 2012 that examined the fundamental physics of ice crystal icing. Those research efforts sought to generate icing conditions representative of those that occur inside a jet engine when ingesting ice crystals. This paper presents the fundamental equations of the thermodynamic model, the methodology used to determine the aforementioned unknown icing parameters, and results from model evaluation using experimental data. In addition, this paper builds on the previously proposed model by adding a transient conduction term to explain ice growth behavior at the onset of experimental tests that was observed to be different from steady-state ice growth that occurred later in the test run.With the addition of this energy term, this becomes a quasi-steady model. A key finding from this work suggests that mass loss fractions can exceed 0.90 for steady ice growth periods. In addition, due to conductive heat fluxes when using a warmer-than-freezing airfoil, lower mass loss fraction values were calculated during the initial transient period.

Ice-Crystal Ice Accretion↗

Composition, Physical State, and Distribution of Ices at the Surface of Triton

This paper presents the analysis of near-infrared observations of the icy surface of Triton, recorded on 1995 September 7, with the cooled grating spectrometer CGS4 at the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (Mauna Kea, HI). This analysis was performed in two steps. The step consisted of identifying the molecules composing Triton's surface by comparing the observations with laboratory transmission spectra (direct spectral analysis ); this also gives information on the physical state of the components.

deBergh, Catherine↗

ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model

In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its design, and the power/speed that C/C++ allows. ISSM is svn (subversion) hosted, on a JPL repository, to facilitate its development and maintenance. ISSM can also model propagation of rifts using contact mechanics and mesh splitting, and can interface to the Dakota software. To carry out sensitivity analysis, mesh partitioning algorithms are available, based on the Scotch, Chaco, and Metis partitioners that ensure equal area mesh partitions can be done, which are then usable for sampling and local reliability methods.

Larour, Eric↗

Influence of Ice-phase of Hydrometeors on Moist-Convection

Climate models often ignore the influence of ice-phase physics (IPP) of hydrometeors as a second order effect. This has also been true for McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme) developed by the authors. Recognizing that the temperature sounding is critical for moist-convection, and, that IPP would modify it, we investigated the influence of introducing IPP into McRAS coupled to FvGCM (finite volume General Circulation Model with NCAR physics). We analyzed three 3-yr long simulations; the first called Control Case, CC and had no IPP; the other two called Experiments El and E2 had IPP introduced with two different in-cloud freezing assumptions. Simulation El assumed that all hydrometeors remain liquid in the updraft and freeze upon detrainment. Simulation E2 invoked the in-cloud freezing of new condensate generated at subfreezing temperatures in the updraft while old cloud water continued to ascend as liquid. Upon detrainment, this cloud water also froze like in E1. With these assumptions, about 50% of hydrometeors froze in the tower and the rest froze in the anvil. However, in both El and E2, the frozen hydrometeors melted during fall at the first encounter of above freezing ambient temperature. Comparative analysis revealed that El simulated far more mid-level and far less deep clouds while E2 had modified deep and more mid-level clouds as compared to CC along with some major changes around the melt-level. We infer that IPP produced a more realistic response in E2. At the basic level, the results show that ice-phase processes influence convective detrainment at mid- and deep levels in accord with TOGAGOARE observations. The results suggest that IPP can help to mitigate less-than-observed mid-level and over-abundance of deep convective clouds in McRAS.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Ice velocity at the ice front of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, as observed with ERS interferometry

ERS images of the two ends of the ice front of the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf (Antarctica) were utilized interferometrically to study the deformation rate of the ice shelf in response to viscous creep. On the western bank of Berkner Island (BI), near Hemmen Ice Rise (HIR), a time series of ERS data acquired in February 1992, in both ascending and descending mode, and with a three-day time interval, were utilized to map the ice velocity in two dimensions. Finite-element ice-shelf flow simulations are compared with the ERS interferograms to interpret the ice motion in terms of the physical constraints on ice-shelf flow. The efforts to fit artificial interferograms generated with model velocity output suggest that the flow regime is strongly influenced by three processes. First, a void-creation process responsible for rifts at coastal margins tends to uncouple the ice shelf from the ice rise and neighboring coast of BI. Secondly, sea ice within the void space appears to act as a binding agent between discrete ice-shelf fragments, allowing rigid-body rotations of these fragments. Third, strain rates appear to be enhanced in a narrow zone adjacent to HIR, implying significant strain softening along the boundary. It is believed that synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferogram/model intercomparison represents a powerful impetus towards the development of better, more physically realistic ice-shelf flow models.

Rignot, Eric↗

Physical processes in polar stratospheric ice clouds

A one dimensional model of cloud microphysics was used to simulate the formation and evolution of polar stratospheric ice clouds. Some of the processes which are included in the model are outlined. It is found that the clouds must undergo preferential nucleation upon the existing aerosols just as do tropospheric cirrus clouds. Therefore, there is an energy barrier between stratospheric nitric acid particles and ice particles implying that nitric acid does not form a continuous set of solutions between the trihydrate and ice. The Kelvin barrier is not significant in controlling the rate of formation of ice particles. It was found that the cloud properties are sensitive to the rate at which the air parcels cool. In wave clouds, with cooling rates of hundreds of degrees per day, most of the existing aerosols nucleate and become ice particles. Such clouds have particles with sizes on the order of a few microns, optical depths on order of unity and are probably not efficient at removing materials from the stratosphere. In clouds which form with cooling rates of a few degrees per day or less, only a small fraction of the aerosols become cloud particles. In such clouds the particle radius is larger than 10 microns, the optical depths are low and water vapor is efficiently removed. Seasonal simulations show that the lowest water vapor mixing ratio is determined by the lowest temperature reached, and that the time when clouds disappear is controlled by the time when temperatures begin to rise above the minimum values.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Physical processes in polar stratospheric ice clouds

The formulation and evolution of polar stratospheric ice clouds are simulated using a one-dimensional model of cloud microphysics. It is found that the optical thickness and particle size of ice clouds depend on the cooling rate of the air in which the cloud formed. It is necessary that there be an energy barrier to ice nucleation upon the preexisting aerosols in order to account for the cooling rate dependence of the cloud properties.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Biologically relevant physical measurements in the ice-free valleys of southern Victoria Land: soil temperature profiles and ultraviolet radiation

As part of the ongoing comprehensive study of the cryptoendolithic microbial community in the ice-free valleys of southern Victoria Land, thermal properties of the soil and the ultraviolet radiation regime were measured. Although soil temperature profiles have been measured in the ice-free valleys (e.g., Cameron et al. 1970; Cameron 1972), these are the first such data from higher elevations. This is apparently the first time the ultraviolet radiation regime has been measured in the Antarctic.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Current Experimental Basis for Modeling Ice Accretions on Swept Wings

This work presents a review of the experimental basis for modeling ice accretions on swept wings. Experimental work related to ice accretion physics on swept wings conducted between 1954 and 2004 is reviewed. Proposed models or explanations of scallop formations are singled out and discussed. Special emphasis is placed on reviewing the work done to determine the basic macroscopic mechanisms of scallop formation. The role of feather growth and its connection to scallop growth is discussed. Conceptual steps in modeling scallop formations are presented. Research elements needed for modeling are discussed.

Vargas, Mario↗

Academic Airframe Icing Perspective

2-D ice accretion and aerodynamics reasonably well understood for engineering applications To significantly improve our current capabilities we need to understand 3-D: a) Important ice accretion physics and modeling not well understood in 3-D; and b) Aerodynamics unsteady and 3-D especially near stall. Larger systems issues important and require multidisciplinary team approach

Bragg, Mike↗

Mechanism of Supercooled Water Droplet Breakup near the Leading Edge of an Airfoil

This work presents the results of an experimental study on supercooled droplet deformation and breakup near the leading edge of an airfoil. The results are compared to prior room temperature droplet deformation results to explore the effects of droplet supercooling. The experiments were conducted in the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) at The Pennsylvania State University. An airfoil model placed at the end of the rotor blades mounted onto the hub in the AERTS chamber was moved at speeds ranging between 50 and 80 m/sec. The temperature of the chamber was set at -20˚C. A monotonic droplet generator was used to produce droplets that fell from above, perpendicular to the path of the airfoil. The supercooled state of the droplets was determined by measurement of the temperature of the drops at various locations below the droplet generator exit. A temperature prediction code was also used to estimate the temperature of the droplets based on vertical velocity and the distance traveled by droplets from the droplet generator to the airfoil stagnation line. High speed imaging was employed to observe the interaction between the droplets and the airfoil. The high speed imaging provided droplet deformation information as the droplet approached the airfoil near the stagnation line. A tracking software program was used to measure the horizontal and vertical displacement of the droplet against time. It was demonstrated that to compare the effects of water supercooling on droplet deformation, the ratio of the slip velocity and the initial droplet velocity must be equal. A case with equal slip velocity to initial velocity ratios was selected for room temperature and supercooled droplet conditions. The airfoil velocity was 60 m/s and the slip velocity for both sets of data was 40 m/s. In these cases, the deformation of the weakly supercooled and warm droplets did not present different trends. The similar behavior for both environmental conditions indicates that water supercooling has no effect on particle deformation for the limited range of the weak supercooling of the droplets tested and the selected impact velocity. The assumption of a constant surface tension value was further supported by the equal trend of the Bond number obtained for supercooled and room temperature droplets.

in-flight icing↗