Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “gridded population”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

New Candidate Extreme T Subdwarfs from the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 Citizen Science Project

Schneider et al. presented the discovery of WISEA J041451.67−585456.7 and WISEA J181006.18−101000.5, which appear to be the first examples of extreme T-type subdwarfs (esdTs; metallicity ≤−1 dex, T(eff) ≲ 1400 K). Here, we present new discoveries and follow-up of three T-type subdwarf candidates, with an eye toward expanding the sample of such objects with very low metallicity and extraordinarily high kinematics, properties that suggest membership in the Galactic halo. Keck/NIRES near-infrared spectroscopy of WISEA J155349.96+693355.2, a fast-moving object discovered by the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 citizen science project, confirms that it is a mid-T subdwarf. With H(W2) = 22.3 mag, WISEA J155349.96+693355.2 has the largest W2 reduced proper motion among all spectroscopically confirmed L and T subdwarfs, suggesting that it may be kinematically extreme. Nevertheless, our modeling of the WISEA J155349.96+693355.2 near-infrared spectrum indicates that its metallicity is only mildly subsolar. In analyzing the J155349.96+693355.2 spectrum, we present a new grid of low-temperature, low-metallicity model atmosphere spectra. We also present the discoveries of two new esdT candidates, CWISE J073844.52−664334.6 and CWISE J221706.28−145437.6, based on their large motions and colors similar to those of the two known esdT objects. Finding more esdT examples is a critical step toward mapping out the spectral sequence and observational properties of this newly identified population.

Aaron M. Meisner↗

The Use of GIS and Remotely Sensed Data in Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project in collaboration with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta, GA. Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(sub 2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(sub 2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in ongoing surveillance. NASA/MSFC is working with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in a Geographic Information System (GIS) that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma on the aggregated grid level as well as the individual level at the geographic locations of the patients' residences.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

An Icy Kuiper Belt Around the Young Solar-type Star HD 181327

Context. HD 181327 is a young main sequence F5/F6 V star belonging to the Beta Pictoris moving group (age approx.. 12 Myr). It harbors an optically thin belt of circumstellar material at radius approx.. 90 AU, presumed to result from collisions in a population of unseen planetesimals. Aims. We aim to study the dust properties in the belt in details, and to constrain the gas-to-dust ratio. Methods. We obtained far-infrared photometric observations of HD 181327 with the PACS instrument onboard the Herschel Space Observatory, complemented by new 3.2 mm observations carried with the ATCA array. The geometry of the belt is constrained with newly reduced HST/NICMOS scattered light images that allow the degeneracy between the disk geometry and the dust properties to be broken. We then use the radiative transfer code GRaTeR to compute a large grid of models, and we identify the grain models that best reproduce the spectral energy distribution (SED) through a Bayesian analysis. We attempt to detect the oxygen and ionized carbon fine-structure lines with Herschel/PACS spectroscopy, providing observables to our photochemical code ProDiMo. Results. The HST observations confirm that the dust is confined in a narrow belt. The continuum is detected with Herschel/PACS completing nicely the SED in the far-infrared. The disk is marginally resolved with both PACS and ATCA. A medium integration of the gas spectral lines only provides upper limits on the [OI] and [CII] line fluxes.We show that the HD 181327 dust disk consists of micron-sized grains of porous amorphous silicates and carbonaceous material surrounded by an important layer of ice, for a total dust mass of approx.. 0.05 Solar Mass (in grains up to 1 mm). We discuss evidences that the grains consists of fluffy aggregates. The upper limits on the gas atomic lines do not provide unambiguous constraints: only if the PAH abundance is high, the gas mass must be lower than approx. 17 Solar Mass. Conclusions. Despite the weak constraints on the gas disk, the age of HD 181327 and the properties of the dust disk suggest that it has passed the stage of gaseous planets formation. The dust reveals a population of icy planetesimals, similar to the primitive Edgeworth-Kuiper belt, that may be a source for the future delivery of water and volatiles onto forming terrestrial planets.

HD 181327↗

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

The latest generation of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites has brought a new dimension to continuous monitoring of the living part of the Earth System, the biosphere. EOS data can now provide weekly global measures of vegetation productivity and ocean chlorophyll, and many related biophysical factors such as land cover changes or snowmelt rates. However, the highest economic value would come from forecasting impending conditions of the biosphere, to allow decision makers to mitigate dangers or exploit positive trends. NASA's strategic plan for the Earth Science Enterprise i d e n a s ecological forecasting as a focus for research. Ecological forecasting predicts the effects of changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment on ecosystem activity. Possible applications of such a system include predicting shortfalls or bumper crops of agricultural production, populations of threatened or invasive species or wildfire danger in time to allow improves preparation and logistical efficiency. Petabytes of remote sensing data are now available to help measure, understand and forecast changes in the Earth system, but using these data effectively can be surprisingly hard. The volume and variety of data files and formats are daunting. Simple data management activities, such as locating and transferring files, changing file formats, gridding point data, and scaling and reprojecting gridded data, can consume far more personnel time and resources than the actual data analysis. Some scientists commit to a particular data source or resolution just because using anything different would be more effort that it's worth. Better tools can help, but most of the tools developed to date are little more than shell scripts; they lack the flexibility to meet the diverse needs of users and are difficult to extend to handle changes in available data sources.

Golden, Keith↗

Evaluation of VIIRS, GOCI, and MODIS Collection 6 AOD Retrievals Against Ground Sunphotometer Observations Over East Asia

Persistent high aerosol loadings together with extremely high population densities have raised serious air quality and public health concerns in many urban centers in East Asia. However, ground-based air quality monitoring is relatively limited in this area. Recently, satellite-retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at high resolution has become a powerful tool to characterize aerosol patterns in space and time. Using ground AOD observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON)-Asia Campaign, as well as from handheld sunphotometers, we evaluated emerging aerosol products from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP), the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) aboard the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorology Satellite (COMS), and Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (Collection 6) in East Asia in 2012 and 2013. In the case study in Beijing, when compared with AOD observations from handheld sunphotometers, 51% of VIIRS Environmental Data Record (EDR) AOD, 37% of GOCI AOD, 33% of VIIRS Intermediate Product (IP) AOD, 26% of Terra MODIS C6 3km AOD, and 16% of Aqua MODIS C6 3km AOD fell within the reference expected error (EE) envelope (+/-0.05/+/- 0.15 AOD). Comparing against AERONET AOD over the JapanSouth Korea region, 64% of EDR, 37% of IP, 61% of GOCI, 39% of Terra MODIS, and 56% of Aqua MODIS C6 3km AOD fell within the EE. In general, satellite aerosol products performed better in tracking the day-to-day variability than tracking the spatial variability at high resolutions. The VIIRS EDR and GOCI products provided the most accurate AOD retrievals, while VIIRS IP and MODIS C6 3km products had positive biases.

Xiao, Q.↗

Investigation of Reduced-Order Modeling for Aircraft Stability and Control Prediction

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics tools offer the potential to approximate increments for ground-to-flight scaling effects, as well as to augment the dynamic damping derivative data for motion-based flight simulators. Unfortunately, the computational expense is currently prohibitive for populating a complete simulator database. This work investigates an existing surrogate-based, indicial response reduced-order model methodology as a means to efficiently augment a flight simulator database with high-fidelity nonlinear aerodynamic damping derivatives. Creation of the reduced-order model is based on the superposition integrals of the step response with the derivative of its corresponding input signal. Step responses are calculated using a computational grid motion approach that separates the effects of angle of attack and sideslip angle from angular rates, and rates from angle of attack and sideslip. It is demonstrated that the transients produced during the start of a forced-oscillation motion are captured by the reduced-order model to the level of fidelity of a comparable computational solution. Aerodynamic coefficients computed within minutes by the reduced-order model for an aircraft undergoing an 18-second half Lazy-8 maneuver and a 25-second Immelmann turn maneuver are compared with those from full computational flight solutions that required days to complete. Finally, a cost-benefit assessment is included that demonstrates a compelling advantage for this approach. d for maneuvering, flexible vehicles.

Frink, Neal T.↗

Scalar Atomic Defect-Based Solid-State Self-calibrating Magnetometer (3SM) for Space Plasma Analysis

The Earth’s magnetosphere is a system of multiple, co-located particle populations interacting via plasma waves. Things to understand are driving processes, radiation belt and ring current issues, auroral physics, internal plasma processes, and magnetosphere-ionosphere mapping issues. These plasma-physics processes enable the Earth’s magnetosphere to evolve in response to temporal changes in the solar wind and they underlie the phenomena of space weather, which impacts spacecraft systems, astronauts, radio communications, and ground based electric-power grids. The objective of 3SM is to measure magnetic field strength and to calibrate the Vector Magnetometer (VM) device to maintain absolute accuracy during a mission. The 3SM features make the instrument preferably suited not only for the traditional role of scalar magnetometers as absolute references for the calibration of the on-board vector instruments, but also for extended operational capacities, such as higher frequency scalar measurements (of potential interest for magnetosphere studies for the low frequency part of the spectrum) or autonomous scalar / vector operations. Diamond has been the solid-state platform of choice for quantum device technologies for some time, however, it suffers from difficulties such as scalability, integration, and cost. While the diamond platform is very useful for quantum technologies, further development is needed to make it viable. The material platform of choice for NASA Glenn’s Quantum Sensing And Spin Physics (Q-SASP) is silicon carbide (SiC). This is due to the much higher industry development of the SiC material platform for high-power and high-temperature electronics. It leverages both the decades-long SiC development expertise and infrastructure at NASA Glenn and its growing capabilities in quantum metrology. To make SiC devices usable for quantum technologies such as quantum sources, a much deeper understanding of defects is needed. Q-SASP is developing quantum metrology capabilities to evaluate the energy structure, defect formation energy, band structure augmentation, generation/recombination rates, and limits of dipole-dipole coupling in non-metal implanted SiC devices. This can be achieved by analysis of zero-field splitting, low-field resonance, and singlet-triplet mixing through various forms of Electrically Detectable Magnetic Resonance (EDMR) and Near-Zero Field Magnetic Resonance (NZFMR) spectroscopy. This work will discuss recent system developments, device developments, computational modeling, and spectroscopy results and analysis of defects created by non-metal implantations in SiC devices. The defect formation energies of V Si ,V C , V C V Si , N C V Si , N Si , N C in 4H-SiC are previously reported values in other research [2]-[3]. The defect formation energies of PSi and PC were calculated in GPAW [fig 1A]. The basic underlying mechanism of the zero-field phenomenon is the mixing of singlet and triplet states [4]-[5]. In most spin-dependent transport, two electron spins are involved, and thus one must consider each of their interactions with the field. We investigated the electronic and magnetic properties of 4H-SiC and 6H-SiC. The defect formation energy helps us determine what types of defects we are observing in the SiC EDMR experiment. They have very low formation energy (it is negative). The phosphorus substitution in 4H-SiC is a very stable defect. The band diagrams provide us with vital information about how the electronic properties of SiC (such as band gap) change as we add non-metal defects. The zero-field splitting parameters allow us to study the inflection point in the NZFMR [fig 1B]. We clearly observed zero-field splitting. We also noted that the zero-field splitting remained constant with changing bias. We aspect it zero-field splitting to remain constant while the hyperfine and exchange interaction perturbations shift under the influence of an external magnetic field. This is the essence of quantum magnetometry and self-calibration.

space plasma↗

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Applications of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner in oceanography

Research activity has continued to be focused on the applications of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) imagery in oceanography. A number of regional studies were completed including investigations of temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton populations in the South Atlantic Bight, Northwest Spain, Weddell Sea, Bering Sea, Caribbean Sea and in tropical Atlantic Ocean. In addition to the regional studies, much work was dedicated to developing ancillary global scale meteorological and hydrographic data sets to complement the global CZCS processing products. To accomplish this, SEAPAK's image analysis capability was complemented with an interface to GEMPAK (Severe Storm Branch's meteorological analysis software package) for the analysis and graphical display of gridded data fields. Plans are being made to develop a similar interface to SEAPAK for hydrographic data using EPIC (a hydrographic data analysis package developed by NOAA/PMEL).

Mcclain, C. R.↗

Small-Scale Dissipation in Binary-Species Transitional Mixing Layers

Motivated by large eddy simulation (LES) modeling of supercritical turbulent flows, transitional states of databases obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of binary-species supercritical temporal mixing layers were examined to understand the subgrid-scale dissipation, and its variation with filter size. Examination of the DSN-scale domain- averaged dissipation confirms previous findings that, out of the three modes of viscous, temperature and species-mass dissipation, the species-mass dissipation is the main contributor to the total dissipation. The results revealed that the percentage of species-mass by total dissipation is nearly invariant across species systems and initial conditions. This dominance of the species-mass dissipation is due to high-density-gradient magnitude (HDGM) regions populating the flow under the supercritical conditions of the simulations; such regions have also been observed in fully turbulent supercritical flows. The domain average being the result of both the local values and the extent of the HDGM regions, the expectations were that the response to filtering would vary with these flow characteristics. All filtering here is performed in the dissipation range of the Kolmogorov spectrum, at filter sizes from 4 to 16 times the DNS grid spacing. The small-scale (subgrid scale, SGS) dissipation was found by subtracting the filtered-field dissipation from the DNS-field dissipation. In contrast to the DNS dissipation, the SGS dissipation is not necessarily positive; negative values indicate backscatter. Backscatter was shown to be spatially widespread in all modes of dissipation and in the total dissipation (25 to 60 percent of the domain). The maximum magnitude of the negative subgrid- scale dissipation was as much as 17 percent of the maximum positive subgrid- scale dissipation, indicating that, not only is backscatter spatially widespread in these flows, but it is considerable in magnitude and cannot be ignored for the purposes of LES modeling. The Smagorinsky model, for example, is unsuited for modeling SGS fluxes in the LES because it cannot render backscatter. With increased filter size, there is only a modest decrease in the spatial extent of backscatter. The implication is that even at large LES grid spacing, the issue of backscatter and related SGS-flux modeling decisions are unavoidable. As a fraction of the total dissipation, the small-scale dissipation is between 10 and 30 percent of the total dissipation for a filter size that is four times the DNS grid spacing, with all OH cases bunched at 10 percent, and the HN cases spanning 24 30 percent. A scale similarity was found in that the domain-average proportion of each small-scale dissipation mode, with respect to the total small-scale dissipation, is very similar to equivalent results at the DNS scale. With increasing filter size, the proportion of the small-scale dissipation in the dissipation increases substantially, although not quite proportionally. When the filter size increases by four-fold, 52 percent for all OH runs, and 70 percent for HN runs, of the dissipation is contained in the subgrid-scale portion with virtually no dependence on the initial conditions of the DNS. The indications from the dissipation analysis are that modeling efforts in LES of thermodynamically supercritical flows should be focused primarily on mass-flux effects, with temperature and viscous effects being secondary. The analysis also reveals a physical justification for scale-similarity type models, although the suitability of these will need to be confirmed in a posteriori studies.

Bellan, Josette↗

Overflow Analysis of Unmanned Aircraft Systems

With the increasing presence of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), or drones, in the national airspace, the management for access and operation of these vehicles is required. NASA’s management approach is being developed under the unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM) program. To determine the aerodynamic characteristics of drones, wind tunnel experiments and computation fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis have been conducted. These experiments and analyses are undertaken to understand the flight capabilities of these vehicles in variable head and cross wind conditions. The results of these investigations will provide metrics for the safe operation of these vehicles in and around civil populations and in urban settings. The focus of this paper is to model a drone installed in a wind tunnel for varying pitch attitudes and rotor rpm settings. Specifically, the IRIS drone is modeled in the NASA-Ames 7x10 ft wind tunnel. The tunnel mounting hardware and the tunnel enclosure are modeled along with the IRIS drone geometry. The rotors of the drone are modeled using two methodologies: a rotor disk model and full rotating rotors with moving grids. The results of the analysis are compared with available experimental data to validate the computational approach.

Stremel, Paul M.↗

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-assisted Latent Space Dynamics Learning for Stiff Collisional-radiative Models

Collisional-radiative (CR) models describe the atomic processes in a plasma by tracking the population density in the ground and excited states for each charge state of the atom/ion. These models predict important plasma properties such as charge state distributions and radiative emissivity and opacity. Accurate descriptions of the CR balance of the plasma are essential in fusion whole device modeling, especially when significant impurities are introduced into the plasmas. In an integrated fusion plasma and CR simulation, a CR model, which is a high-dimensional stiff ODE, needs to be solved on each grid point in the configuration space, and can overwhelm the overall computational cost. In this work, we propose a machine-learning-based method that discovers a latent space and learns its corresponding latent dynamics, which can capture the essential physics to make accurate predictions at much lower online computational cost. The proposed approach is physics-assisted, due to its combination of a physical latent space and a data-driven latent space. It has been demonstrated that the proposed architecture can predict both the full-order CR dynamics and a physical quantity of interest accurately.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

Thermal Cycle Reliability of PBGA/CCGA 717 I/Os

Status of thermal cycle test results for a nonfunctional daisy-chained peripheral ceramic column grid array (CCGA) and its plastic ball grid array (PBGA) version. both having 560 I/Os. were presented in last year's conference. Test results included environmental data for three different thermal cycle regimes (-55 C/125 C, -55 C/100 C, and -50 C /75 C). Update information on these - especially failure type for assemblies with high and low solder volumes-were presented. The thermal cycle test procedure followed those recommended IPC-9701 for tin-lead solder joint assemblies. Revision A of this specification covers guideline thermal cycle requirements for Pb-free solder joints. Some background information discussed during release of this specification with its current guideline recommendations were also presented. In a recent reliability investigation a fully populated CCGA with 717 I/Os was also considered for assembly reliability. evaluation. The functional package is a field-programmable gate array that has much higher processing power than its previous version. This new package is smaller in dimension, has no interposer, and has a thinner column wrapped with copper for reliability improvement. This paper will also present thermal cycle test results for this package assembly and its plastic version with 728 I/Os. both of which were exposed to three different cycle regimes. Two cycle profiles were those specified by IPC- 9701A for tin-lead, i.e. -55 to 100 C and -55 to 125 C and one was a cycle profile specified by Mil-Std-883, i.e.. -65 C/150 C which is generally used for ceramic hybrid packages. Per IPC-9701 A, test vehicles were built using daisy chain packages and were continuously monitored. The effects of many process and assembly variables-including corner staking commonly used for improving resistance to mechanical loading such as drop and vibration loads--were also considered as part of the test matrix. Optical photomicrographs were taken at various thermal cycle intervals to document damage progress and behavior. Representative samples of these along with cross-sectional photomicrographs at higher magnification taken by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to determine crack propagation and failure analyses for packages are also presented.

staking↗