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117 records · Page 7

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer - Part 1

The formation of pre Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the "wave pouch" from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors' earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Wang, Zhuo↗

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

NO2 modelling↗

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗

Simulation of Fluid Flow and Collection Efficiency for an SEA Multi-element Probe

Numerical simulations of fluid flow and collection efficiency for a Science Engineering Associates (SEA) multi-element probe are presented. Simulation of the flow field was produced using the Glenn-HT Navier-Stokes solver. Three-dimensional unsteady results were produced and then time averaged for the heat transfer and collection efficiency results. Three grid densities were investigated to enable an assessment of grid dependence. Simulations were completed for free stream velocities ranging from 85-135 meters per second, and free stream total pressure of 44.8 and 93.1 kilopascals (6.5 and 13.5 pounds per square inch absolute). In addition, the effect of angle of attack and yaw were investigated by including 5 degree deviations from straight for one of the flow conditions. All but one of the cases simulated a probe in isolation (i.e. in a very large domain without any support strut). One case is included which represents a probe mounted on a support strut within a finite sized wind tunnel. Collection efficiencies were generated, using the LEWICE3D code, for four spherical particle sizes, 100, 50, 20, and 5 micron in diameter. It was observed that a reduction in velocity of about 20% occurred, for all cases, as the flow entered the shroud of the probe. The reduction in velocity within the shroud is not indicative of any error in the probe measurement accuracy. Heat transfer results are presented which agree quite well with a correlation for the circular cross section heated elements. Collection efficiency results indicate a reduction in collection efficiency as particle size is reduced. The reduction with particle size is expected, however, the results tended to be lower than the previous results generated for isolated two-dimensional elements. The deviation from the two-dimensional results is more pronounced for the smaller particles and is likely due to the reduced flow within the protective shroud. As particle size increases differences between the two-dimensional and three dimensional results become negligible. Taken as a group, the total collection efficiency of the elements including the effects of the shroud has been shown to be in the range of 0.93 to 0.99 for particles above 20 microns. The 3D model has improved the estimated collection efficiency for smaller particles where errors in previous estimates were more significant.

Water Content↗

Tortuosity Computations of Porous Materials using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Low-density carbon fiber preforms, used as thermal protection systems (TPS) materials for planetary entry systems, have permeable, highly porous microstructures consisting of interlaced fibers. Internal gas transport in TPS is important in modeling the penetration of hot boundary-layer gases and the in-depth transport of pyrolysis and ablation products. The gas effective diffusion coefficient of a porous material must be known before the gas transport can be modeled in material response solvers; however, there are very little available data for rigid fibrous insulators used in heritage TPS.The tortuosity factor, which reflects the efficiency of the percolation paths, can be computed from the effective diffusion coefficient of a gas inside a porous material and is based on the micro-structure of the material. It is well known, that the tortuosity factor is a strong function of the Knudsen number. Due to the small characteristic scales of porous media used in TPS applications (typical pore size of the order of 50 micron), the transport of gases can occur in the rarefied and transitional regimes, at Knudsen numbers above 1. A proper way to model the gas dynamics at these conditions consists in solving the Boltzmann equation using particle-based methods that account for movement and collisions of atoms and molecules.In this work we adopt, for the first time, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to compute the tortuosity factor of fibrous media in the rarefied regime. To enable realistic simulations of the actual transport of gases in the porous medium, digitized computational grids are obtained from X-ray micro-tomography imaging of real TPS materials. The SPARTA DSMC solver is used for simulations. Effective diffusion coefficients and tortuosity factors are obtained by computing the mean-square displacement of diffusing particles.We first apply the method to compute the tortuosity factors as a function of the Knudsen number for computationally designed materials such as random cylindrical fibers and packed bed of spheres with prescribed porosity. Results are compared to literature values obtained using random walk methods in the rarefied and transitional regime and a finite-volume method for the continuum regime. We then compute tortuosity factors for a real carbon fiber material with a transverse isotropic structure (FiberForm), quantifying differences between through-thickness and in-plain tortuosities at various Knudsen regimes.

Tortuosity↗

A High Angle of Attack Inviscid Shuttle Orbiter Computation

An accurate description of the aerothermal environment is required to minimize the weight of the Thermal Protection System required on the leeside of winged reentry vehicles. The inability of ground-test facilities to reproduce the high enthalpy, separated flow present during reentry flight conditions, coupled with the prohibitive expense of flight tests, leads to the use of an analytical method - namely Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) - to describe the flow. While the ultimate goal of this work is to accurately predict the leeside flow and its associated thermal environment, an essential and reasonable first step towards that goal is a comparison of pressure predictions by a code with wind-tunnel data. Until such CFD pressure predictions agree with wind-tunnel test cases, there is little hope of accurately predicting the thermal environment at flight conditions. Thus, the objective of this study is to compare the pressure distributions predicted by inviscid, perfect gas CFD to Shuttle Orbiter wind-tunnel data and to address any significant issues encountered during the computation. While flight data is available for the Shuttle Orbiter, a wind-tunnel case is chosen for this study to allow a tractable problem for preliminary investigation. A wind-tunnel case allows the perfect gas assumption for the flow chemistry. This provides a significant computational savings over a several species finite-rate chemistry model which would be necessary if high-temperature effects present at flight conditions were to be included. In addition, by concentrating on the surface pressures, the analysis need only consider inviscid flow for general evaluation of the code capability. This further reduces the computational expense due to the absence of viscous terms and the associated decrease in the number of points required for the computational grid. Previous computational efforts (such as STEIN and HALIS) have been directed toward the windward surface quantities, primarily due to restrictions in treating either the winged geometry or its associated subsonic regions at high angle of attack. The code used for this study, the LAURA (Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm) code of Gnoffo, represents a state-of-the-art code for computing the flow over complex configurations at hypersonic speeds. In the study, the LAURA code is applied to a wind-tunnel condition to initiate the assessment of the code's ability to predict the flow over a relatively complex hypersonic vehicle at high angles of attack. This presentation is used to highlight the pertinent results of a more detailed investigation of the inviscid calculation over the Shuttle Orbiter with the LAURA code.

William L. Kleb↗

Classification of Small Negative Lightning Reports at the KSC-ER

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) operate an extensive suite of lightning sensors because Florida experiences the highest area density of ground strikes in the United States, with area densities approaching 16 fl/sq km/yr when accumulated in 10x10 km (100 sq km) grids. The KSC-ER use data derived from two cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning detection networks, the "Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System" (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (TradeMark) (NLDN) plus a 3-dimensional lightning mapping system, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, to provide warnings for ground operations and to insure mission safety during space launches. For operational applications at the KSC-ER it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. In this work we examine a specific subset of the CGLSS stroke reports that have low values of the negative inferred peak current, Ip, i.e. values between 0 and -7 kA, and were thought to produce a new ground contact (NGC). When possible, the NLDN and LDAR systems were used to validate the CGLSS classification and to determine how many of these reported strokes were first strokes, subsequent strokes in a pre-existing channel (PEC), or cloud pulses that the CGLSS misclassified as CG strokes. It is scientifically important to determine the smallest current that can reach the ground either in the form of a first stroke or by way of a subsequent stroke that creates a new ground contact. In Biagi et al (2007), 52 low amplitude, negative return strokes ([Ip] < or = 10 kA) were evaluated in southern Arizona, northern Texas, and southern Oklahoma. The authors found that 50-87% of the small NLDN reports could be classified as CG (either first or subsequent strokes) on the basis of video and waveform recordings. Low amplitude return strokes are interesting because they are usually difficult to detect, and they are thought to bypass conventional lightning protection that relies on a sufficient attractive radius to prevent "shielding failure" (Golde, 1977). They also have larger location errors compared to the larger current events. In this study, we use the estimated peak current provided by the CGLSS and the results of our classification to determine the minimum Ip for each category of CG stroke and its probability of occurrence. Where possible, these results are compared to the findings in the literature.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

Comparison Between DSMC and CFD for Hypersonic Planetary Entry Simulations

Hypersonic planetary entry flows span a wide range of Knudsen numbers between rarefied and continuum flows. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques cannot provide an accurate solution for flows in the rarefied regime, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is capable of providing accurate solutions for flows in both in the rarefied and continuum regimes but becomes prohibitively expensive as the Knudsen number decreases. For the purpose of thermal protection systems (TPS) design and post-flight reconstruction, various selected points along an entry trajectory are often solved using hypersonic solvers. The quantities of interest that are obtained from that exercise are generally surface quantities, such as pressure, heat flux and enthalpy. Then, material response solvers are used to either design the heat shield to an optimal thickness based on a choice of material, or to provide in-depth heating profiles through the material at various select locations, and compare with flight instrumentation such as the ones that flew on NASA’s two most recent Mars missions, MSL and Mars2020. While most of the heating is generally experienced during the continuum part of the entry, the heating within the rarefied regime is significant for some atmospheres, and hence the flow solutions need to be computed using the DSMC method. Ensuring consistency between hypersonic CFD and the DSMC is crucial so that reliable surface quantities can be passed to material response solvers. Studies were performed to compare the two methods at various select locations, for both non-reacting argon flows as well reacting CO2/N2 flows. Preliminary conclusions show that, for non-reacting flows, the agreement between the two methods for surface heating is excellent (within expected uncertainties) for a freestream Knudsen number of 0.0006, and gets progressively worse as the Knudsen number increases to 0.06. Continuum breakdown analyses were performed and showed that, in general, the Gradient Length Local Knudsen number (KnGLL) from Boyd [1] and associated criteria (KnGLL > 0.05) can be accurately used to predict zones of breakdown in the flow, and associated errors for surface quantities. Furthermore, when studying reacting flow, our studies showed that while flow quantities are highly dependent on relaxation parameters and chemistry rates, it is possible to obtain a good agreement for surface heating, as long as the continuum breakdown in minimal (see Fig. 1). Finally, we studied the impact of the grid refinement on the surface quantities in DSMC.

DSMC↗

Cloud-Type Mean Cloud Properties and Associated Cloud Radiative Effects in the Tropical “Chimney” Zones Using 20 Years High-Resolution CERES Satellite Data

It has been well known that convection tends to be more intense over land than over ocean and continental convection generally contains wider cores that are protected from entrainment than their oceanic counterparts. How does this difference in convective intensity impact the rest of cloud types and associated cloud radiative effects (CREs)? We select five regions in the tropical “chimney” zones, with two regions over land (Africa and Amazon) and three regions over ocean (eastern and western Pacific, and Atlantic) to understand the differences in the cloud-type mean cloud properties and associated CREs using 20-years high-resolution (2x2 km2) CERES satellite data. The cloud types are based upon the ISCCP classification using the joint cloud-top pressure and cloud optical depth distribution. These five regions are compared to the entire tropics (25°S to 25°N). First, we compare the frequencies of occurrence of cloud types among the regions. Compared to the entire tropics, the “chimney” zones are cloudier, particularly, for cloud types with moderate cloud optical depths in the middle and upper troposphere. Except for the eastern Pacific region, the low-level cloud types are less abundant over land (due to higher boundary layers) and ocean (due to weaker lower-tropospheric subsidence). Over Africa, upper-level clouds are scarcer, due perhaps to weak production of convective anvils related to the drier atmosphere. Second, liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP) are compared among the regions. Compared to the entire tropics, mean LWPs for moderate cloud optical depths are higher for oceanic regions but lower for Africa while they are slightly lower in the lower troposphere but slightly higher in the middle troposphere for Amazon. Not surprisingly, mean IWPs are higher over land than over ocean, which is directly related to the difference in convective intensity. That is, the explanations to this result are the relatively weak convective intensity over the eastern Pacific and the abundance of anvil clouds over the western Pacific. Both reduce the mean IWPs. The CRE results are still being analyzed because the totally-clear grids (1° x 1°) of the CERES data product should be removed before taking a regional mean of clear-sky fluxes, which cause the wrong signs of CREs for a few cloud types.

cloud radiative effects↗