Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “grid impact analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

Distributed Solar in Tamil Nadu

With India’s ambitious renewable energy targets and decreasing rooftop solar prices, customer adoption of rooftop solar on Tamil Nadu’s distribution network is set to increase in the coming years. With that comes the challenge of how to assess the impact of these emerging distributed energy resources. In an effort to help with such an assessment, NREL has created a holistic analysis framework for Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company (TANGEDCO). The Emerging technologies Management and Risk evaluation on distribution Grids Evolution (EMeRGE) analysis framework and tool will help TANGEDCO and other distribution companies (DISCOMs) in India analyze new interconnection applications and evaluate the system risk impact over time with new emerging DERs.

Children's Investment Fund Foundation↗

Integration of DER Adoption Forecasting into Distribution Planning: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-11-00430 (Project H)

The objective of this project is to improve distributed energy resources (DER) technology, time, and locational impact analysis by incorporating customer adoption intentions and preferences into distribution planning and operations. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) shall collaborate with EPRI staff to contribute to the development of methodology, literature review, analysis, and write-up for two sections of a report "Identification and Overview of Methods for Mapping DER Adoption Forecasts” and “Comparative Analysis of Methods for Mapping DER Adoption Forecasts."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

EVs@Scale Deep Dive - SCM/VGI (Day 1: SCM/VGI Analysis)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Laboratory Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. Critical to this effort is an understanding of the potential grid impacts of EV charging and possible smart charge management (SCM) or vehicle-grid integration (VGI) capabilities that could mitigate these impacts. The EVs@Scale SCM/VGI Pillar is analyzing the impacts of EV charging and developing and demonstrating the capabilities of both SCM and VGI with many different vehicle use cases and grid scenarios. This Deep Dive Discussion from year 1 of the project encompasses the progress and future plans for the analysis components of the FUSE (Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for Evs at scale) project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

An Open-Source Decarbonization Analytics Framework: Designing for Low-Carbon Emission Districts and Communities: Preprint

This paper introduces an open-source analytics framework designed to assist in creating low or net-zero carbon buildings and urban districts. Integrated within URBANopt, an open-source platform for energy analysis in districts and communities, this framework equips researchers, architects, engineers, and other stakeholders with tools to evaluate the carbon footprint implications of their design choices. The framework enables the analysis of various scenarios, incorporating both historical and future emission factors, and can span across different climate zones, each with distinct grid and emissions characteristics. The results showcase the framework's capability to evaluate the impact of design upgrades and control strategies on carbon emissions in districts and communities. An illustrative analysis using a hypothetical district in Denver, Colorado, shows reduced emissions from energy efficiency upgrades and control strategies, highlighting the sensitivity in their effects on emissions and energy use.

buildings energy efficiency↗

An Integrated Assessment of a G3 GMD Event on Large-Scale Power Grids: From Magnetometer Data to Geomagnetically Induced Current Analysis

Solar activities can cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) that give rise to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which may compromise the reliability of the power system. In order to build more reliable models representing GMD interactions with the power grid, the power system’s detailed electrical model must be considered along with fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic and induced surface electric fields. Here, this study investigates the impact of incorporating spatially varying magnetic fields into surface electric field models on GMD risk metrics. A spatially independent magnetic field model and a spatially varying model are compared through simulations. To perform this analysis, the earth’s magnetic field disturbances are transformed into surface electric fields using respective one-dimensional earth conductivity models. Then, the modeling impact of these electric fields is studied using a 2,000-bus grid for Texas and a 25,000-bus grid for the northeast and mid- Atlantic regions of the United States. Simulation results reveal that the inclusion of spatially varying magnetic fields results in considerable differences in GMD risk metrics, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial variability when assessing GMD risks in the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗

Analysis of Correlation between Cold Weather Meteorological Variables and Electricity Outages

The significance of the impact of weather on the electric grid has grown as climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In recent years (2021-2022) in particular, extreme winter weather has affected the grid in locations in the US rarely exposed to extreme low temperatures, snow and icing conditions. Here we analyze the correlation between cold weather meteorological variables and electricity outages during two large winter storm events, Uri (February 2021) and Landon (February 2022) using Random Forest machine learning and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Our geographical focus across the two storms is the state of Texas. Extrapolation of the method to winter weather impacts over other years and additional locations is proposed.

Dumas, Melissa↗

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Federal Projects

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform grid operations. As energy demand rises, weather patterns shift, and foreign threats to critical infrastructure grow, it is essential to harness advanced technology to modernize the grid and increase overall resiliency. This paper examines the integration of AI in federally funded grid infrastructure projects. By analyzing project data, it evaluates the penetration and use cases of AI technologies within key funding initiatives and explores opportunities and challenges associated with their deployment. This analysis categorizes AI adoption in recent federal grid investments, establishing a baseline for measuring near-term impacts and identifying promising AI applications. The research found that 16% of recent federal energy projects included AI integration, and approximately 75% of these projects used AI for more than one primary application.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrified autonomous freight benefit analysis on fleet, infrastructure and grid leveraging Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model

Fast-growing freight activities over the decades have become one of the major contributors to air pollution, leading to many efforts in freight decarbonization and electrification. However, the development of freight electrification is slow due to technological uncertainty, slow charging, high capital cost, etc. This paper analyzes the potential impact and benefit of heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) electrification and automation on fleet cost, infrastructure cost, the electricity grid, and environmental outcomes. In this work, we extended the vehicle electrification benefit analysis tool: Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model, which had primarily been used to study light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs), to analyze heavy-duty vehicle electrification. The extended model is derived for freight transportation electrification, and different freight electrification and automation adoption scenarios were analyzed. We find that the increased penetration of automated electric freight fleets within other types of electrified freight fleets from 1% to 99% will result in an overall cost reduction of 18.2%, fleet size reduction of 20.4%, and lower peak load reduction of 14.3%.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme for GCM applications

In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.

Gao, Xiaogang↗

Sizing Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems for the Navajo Nation and Rural Communities

The Navajo Nation consists of about 55,000 residential homes spread across 27,000 square miles of trust land in the Southwest region of the United States. The Navajo Tribal Utility Authority (NTUA) reports that approximately 15,000 homes on the reservation do not have electricity due to the high costs of connecting rural homes located miles from utility distribution lines. In order to get these rural homeowners access electricity, NTUA and other Native owned companies are examining small-scale renewable energy systems to provide power for necessary usage such as lighting and refrigeration. The goal of this study is to evaluate the current renewable deployment efforts and provide additional considerations for photovoltaic (PV) systems that will optimize performance and improve efficiency to reduce costs. There are three case studies presented in different locations on the Navajo Nation with varying solar resource and energy load requirements. For each location, an assessment is completed that includes environmental parameters of the site- specific landscape and a system performance analysis of an off-grid residential PV system. The technical process, repeated for each location, demonstrates how the variance and uniqueness of each household can impact the system requirements after optimizations are applied. Therefore, the household variabilities and difference in locations must be considered. The differing results of each case study suggests additional analysis is needed for designing small-scale PV systems that takes a home-land-family specific approach to allow for better efficiency and more flexibility for future solar innovations to be considered for overall cost reductions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Chemical timescale effects on detonation convergence

Numerical simulations of detonation-containing flows have emerged as crucial tools for designing next- generation power and propulsion devices. As these tools mature, it is important for the combustion community to properly understand and isolate grid resolution effects when simulating detonations. To this end, the objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the numerical convergence of unsteady detonation simulations, with focus on isolating the impacts of chemical timescale modifications on convergence characteristics in the context of operator splitting. With the aid of an AMReX-based adaptive mesh refinement flow solver-which enables resolutions up to ($\mathcal{O}$ (1000) cells-per-induction length-the convergence analysis is conducted using two kinetics configurations: (1) the simplified three-step Arrhenius-based model mechanism of Short and Quirk (1997), where chemical timescales in the detonation are modified by adjusting activation energies in the initiation and branching reactions, and (2) a detailed hydrogen- air mechanism, where the chemical timescales are adjusted by varying the ambient pressure. The convergence of unsteady self-sustained detonations in one-dimensional channels is then analyzed with reference to steady-state theoretical baseline solutions using these mechanisms. The goal of the analysis is to provide a detailed comparison of the effects of grid resolution on both macroscopic (peak pressures and wave speeds) and microscopic (wave structure) quantities of interest, drawing connections between the deviations from steady-state baselines and minimum chemical timescales. In particular, chemical timescale reductions were found to have minimal impact on the convergence of macroscopic properties. Furthermore, analyses of microscopic convergence trends, particularly in the reaction front location, revealed a key insight: maintaining the induction time while eliminating prohibitive chemical timescales through mechanism simplifications and combustion modeling can significantly enhance detonation convergence properties. Ultimately, this work uncovers resolution-dependent unsteady detonation convergence regimes and highlights the important role played by not only the chemical timescales, but also the ratio between the chemical timescale and induction time on the numerical convergence of the detonation wave structure.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

Coordinated Modeling of Electric Grid and Natural Gas Network Operations

Presentation based upon full report of a Colorado case study and coordination framework, which is available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/77096.pdf. JISEA analysts Brian Sergi, Omar Guerra, and Bri-Mathias Hodge will present on recent JISEA work on coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors. Power and gas are becoming increasingly interdependent but weren't designed to function together. How does greater coordination impact system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations? This free JISEA presentation will take place in a Webinar on Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 12 p.m.: Learn how greater coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors impacts system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations. Presentation information includes: Historical and projected data for natural gas consumption and power generation in the United States as demonstrated by 2014 East Coast Polar Vortex, 2021 Texas Winter Storm Uri. Showing coupling points, FERC identified need for better coordination, different levels of coordination (decision making and optimization control), coordination framework. Case study on Colorado Front Range, ramping requirements and gas nominations, real-time dispatch (June and December scenarios), results of analysis of impacts of coordination on unserved load. Total real-time gas offtakes by node, impacts on unserved gas, effect on CO2 emissions. Discussions on clusions drawn from Colorado Case study expanded co-simulation via HELICS, objectives of the HELICS+ natural gas use case, modeling of hydrogen blending, techno economic assessment of blending, and blending impacts on energy content and pressure.

analysis↗

Advanced grid-forming (GFM) inverter controls, modeling and system impact study for inverter dominated grids

Our main goals in this project are to understand: 1) the stability of the power system with very high penetration of PV or other inverter-based resources (IBR), 2) the interactions among IBRs and traditional generators, and 3) the impact of the GFM inverters on bulk power system. To achieve these goals, we took a holistic research and development approach. First, an impedance-based large system modeling and stability analysis tool was developed to aid the large IBR system small-signal stability analysis. Second, consensus-based control and transient overload ride through were developed to control and coordinate multiple GFM inverters in a large system to maintain transient stability during big grid events. Third, high fidelity electromagnetic transient (EMT) IBR models were developed and integrated into a large reduced WECC model to study the system impact from IBRs. Lastly, extensive validation tests of the GFM control which was developed in this project and implemented in two 1MW commercial solar inverters were performed using different validation platforms, e.g., control hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) platform, power hardware- in-the-loop (PHIL) platform, and a real PV plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Guidance for Grid Resilience Decisions in Rural Minnesota

This report assesses the hazard landscape of the state of Minnesota, identifies weather hazards that are most impactful to the distribution system, includes a statewide assessment of household access to services dependent on reliable power, reviews resilience planning activities of electric utilities in Minnesota, and presents analysis of distribution grid performance in the face of extreme weather events with data from seven electric cooperatives dispersed throughout outstate Minnesota. This information is synthesized to provide considerations for resilience investment prioritization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗