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At least 127 records · Page 7

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Optimum mix of passive and active control of space structures

The objective of this research was to test vibration suppression (settling time and jitter) of a large space structure (LSS) characterized by low frequency high global vibration modes. Five percent passive damping in a large truss was analyzed, tested and correlated. A representative system article re-target analysis shows that modest levels of passive damping dramatically reduce the control energy required. LSS must incorporate passive damping from the outset. The LSS system performance will not be met by either active or passive damping alone.

Rogers, Lynn↗

Optimized orbits for the constellation of Space Station polar platforms

The orbital configuration of the Eos polar-platform constellation is examined to determine if baseline orbital parameters are appropriately specified to meet the mission task of measuring global oceanic mesoscale variability. Using the Nyquist sampling theorem, spatial and temporal measurement requirements are first established for the constellation. Based upon these requirements, the optimum solution indicates that a total of five spacecraft equipped with nadir-pointing altimeters, or two multibeam-equipped platforms, would be required to meet the mesoscale mapping task. Additional analyses were performed on both one- and and two-platform configurations as well as the complete four-platform Eos constellation. The results of these calculations show that the preferred scenario would be to equip all four Eos polar platforms with multibeam altimeters.

Chase, Robert↗

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗

Clouds Versus Carbon: Predicting Vegetation Roughness by Maximizing Productivity

Surface roughness is one of the dominant vegetation properties that affects land surface exchange of energy, water, carbon, and momentum with the overlying atmosphere. We hypothesize that the canopy structure of terrestrial vegetation adapts optimally to climate by maximizing productivity, leading to an optimum surface roughness. An optimum should exist because increasing values of surface roughness cause increased surface exchange, leading to increased supply of carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. At the same time, increased roughness enhances evapotranspiration and cloud cover, thereby reducing the supply of photosynthetically active radiation. We demonstrate the optimum through sensitivity simulations using a coupled dynamic vegetation-climate model for present day conditions, in which we vary the value of surface roughness for vegetated surfaces. We find that the maximum in productivity occurs at a roughness length of 2 meters, a value commonly used to describe the roughness of today's forested surfaces. The sensitivity simulations also illustrate the strong climatic impacts of vegetation roughness on the energy and water balances over land: with increasing vegetation roughness, solar radiation is reduced by up to 20 W/sq m in the global land mean, causing shifts in the energy partitioning and leading to general cooling of the surface by 1.5 K. We conclude that the roughness of vegetated surfaces can be understood as a reflection of optimum adaptation, and it is associated with substantial changes in the surface energy and water balances over land. The role of the cloud feedback in shaping the optimum underlines the importance of an integrated perspective that views vegetation and its adaptive nature as an integrated component of the Earth system.

Olsen, Lola M.↗

Recent advances in the ITO/InP solar cell

It was demonstrated that Indium Tin Oxide (ITO)/InP solar cells can now be made on as-received p(-) bulk substrates which are of nearly equal quality to those which could previously only be made on epitaxially grown p(-) InP base layers. Although this advancement is due in part to both increases in substrate quality and a better understanding of back contact formation, it appears that the passivation/compensation effects resulting from having H2 in the sputtering gas tends to reduce significantly the performance differences previously observed between these two substrates. It is shown that since high efficiency ITO/InP cells can be made from as-received substrates, and since the type conversion process is not highly spatially dependent, large area ITO/InP cells (4 sq cm) with efficiencies approaching 17 percent (Global) can be made. Furthermore, the measured open circuit voltages (V sub OC) and quantum efficiencies (QEs) from these large cells suggest that, when they are processed using optimum grid designs, the efficiencies will be nearly equal to that of the smaller cells thus far produced. It has been shown, through comparative experiments involving ITO/InP and IO/InP cells, that Sn may not be the major cause of type conversion of the InP surface and thus further implies that the ITO may not be an essential element in this type of device. Specifically, very efficient photovoltaic solar cells were made by sputtering (Sn free) In2O3 showing that type conversion and subsequent junction formation will occur even in the absence of the sputtered SN species. The result suggests that sputter damage may indeed be the important mechanism(s) of type conversion. Finally, an initial study of the stability of the ITO/InP cell done over the course of about one year has indicated that the J(sub SC) (short circuit current) and the fill factor (FF) are measurably stable within experimental certainty.

Gessert, T. A.↗

Dual-loop Solvent-based CCS for Net Negative CO 2 Emissions with Lower Cost

This final technical report details the successful design, construction, and operational validation of an innovative dual-loop CO 2 capture technology designed to achieve deep decarbonization (>99%) from Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plants that results in the electricity with carbon intensity of approximate 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh, less than the electricity produced by solar PV. The integrated process couples a primary aqueous solvent (in this project, a water lean solvent – WLS) absorption loop for bulk CO 2 removal with a secondary potassium hydroxide (KOH) polishing loop featuring electrochemical regeneration. This architecture leverages the higher exergy efficiency of the primary loop while utilizing the fastest kinetic of the secondary loop to capture dilute residual CO 2 , achieving an overall capture rate of 99.9% and co-producing pure hydrogen after moisture being condensed and dehydrated. Technical feasibility was established through a comprehensive 2,000-hour experimental campaign on a bench-scale fully-integrated unit (using 4” absorber and 4” stripper) with the feeding flue gas flowrate in the range of 8-20 cfm, confirming the attainment of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4. The project executed extensive parametric testing followed by 1,000 hours of continuous steady-state testing, demonstrating exceptional process stability with the electrochemical regenerator exhibiting less than a 10% reduction in electrical conductivity over the duration of the campaign. Operational characterization gathering on the bench unit revealed distinct energy profiles for the hybrid system: the primary loop required approximately 280 kJ mol -1 for bulk removal, while the polishing loop required approximately 1,600 kJ mol -1 specifically when reducing dilute CO 2 concentrations from ~740 ppm down to <50 ppm. (Please note those energy values/numbers can only be viewed as relative relationship and should not be extrapolated as absolute values required for CO 2 capture). Furthermore, dynamic testing validated the system’s flexibility for utility applications, demonstrating a rapid process response time of <30 minutes to changes in flue gas flowrate. Emission monitoring confirmed that the dual-loop architecture effectively mitigates solvent losses, utilizing a water wash to remove entrained aerosols to <1 ppm. The Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) indicates a cost of capture of $\$$59.3/tonne and a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 71.7 $\$$/MWh at the overall capture efficiency of 99.8% of total carbon in the flue gas stream, with sensitivity analysis identifying an economic optimum when the primary loop captures 97% of the total CO 2 . A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) confirms the technology’s potential for net-negative emissions, determining a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 52 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh—significantly lower than the baseline—which further decreases to 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh when crediting the displacement of conventional hydrogen production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Design of vibration isolation systems using multiobjective optimization techniques

The design of vibration isolation systems is considered using multicriteria optimization techniques. The integrated values of the square of the force transmitted to the main mass and the square of the relative displacement between the main mass and the base are taken as the performance indices. The design of a three degrees-of-freedom isolation system with an exponentially decaying type of base disturbance is considered for illustration. Numerical results are obtained using the global criterion, utility function, bounded objective, lexicographic, goal programming, goal attainment and game theory methods. It is found that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution with proper balance of the various objective functions.

Rao, S. S.↗

Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes

The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.

Rao, S. S.↗

Spinoff 2015

Topics covered include: 3D Endoscope to Boost Safety, Cut Cost of Surgery; Audio App Brings a Better Night's Sleep Liquid Cooling Technology Increases Exercise Efficiency; Algae-Derived Dietary Ingredients Nourish Animals; Space Grant Research Launches Rehabilitation Chair; Vision Trainer Teaches Focusing Techniques at Home; Aircraft Geared Architecture Reduces Fuel Cost and Noise; Ubiquitous Supercritical Wing Design Cuts Billions in Fuel Costs; Flight Controller Software Protects Lightweight Flexible Aircraft; Cabin Pressure Monitors Notify Pilots to Save Lives; Ionospheric Mapping Software Ensures Accuracy of Pilots' GPS; Water Mapping Technology Rebuilds Lives in Arid Regions; Shock Absorbers Save Structures and Lives during Earthquakes; Software Facilitates Sharing of Water Quality Data Worldwide; Underwater Adhesives Retrofit Pipelines with Advanced Sensors; Laser Imaging Video Camera Sees through Fire, Fog, Smoke; 3D Lasers Increase Efficiency, Safety of Moving Machines; Air Revitalization System Enables Excursions to the Stratosphere; Magnetic Fluids Deliver Better Speaker Sound Quality; Bioreactor Yields Extracts for Skin Cream; Private Astronaut Training Prepares Commercial Crews of Tomorrow; Activity Monitors Help Users Get Optimum Sun Exposure; LEDs Illuminate Bulbs for Better Sleep, Wake Cycles; Charged Particles Kill Pathogens and Round Up Dust; Balance Devices Train Golfers for a Consistent Swing; Landsat Imagery Enables Global Studies of Surface Trends; Ruggedized Spectrometers Are Built for Tough Jobs; Gas Conversion Systems Reclaim Fuel for Industry; Remote Sensing Technologies Mitigate Drought; Satellite Data Inform Forecasts of Crop Growth; Probes Measure Gases for Environmental Research; Cloud Computing Technologies Facilitate Earth Research; Software Cuts Homebuilding Costs, Increases Energy Efficiency; Portable Planetariums Teach Science; Schedule Analysis Software Saves Time for Project Planners; Sound Modeling Simplifies Vehicle Noise Management; Custom 3D Printers Revolutionize Space Supply Chain; Improved Calibration Shows Images' True Colors; Micromachined Parts Advance Medicine, Astrophysics, and More; Metalworking Techniques Unlock a Unique Alloy; Low-Cost Sensors Deliver Nanometer-Accurate Measurements; Electrical Monitoring Devices Save on Time and Cost; Dry Lubricant Smooths the Way for Space Travel, Industry; and Compact Vapor Chamber Cools Critical Components.

Source record↗

Recent advances in approximation concepts for optimum structural design

The basic approximation concepts used in structural optimization are reviewed. Some of the most recent developments in that area since the introduction of the concept in the mid-seventies are discussed. The paper distinguishes between local, medium-range, and global approximations; it covers functions approximations and problem approximations. It shows that, although the lack of comparative data established on reference test cases prevents an accurate assessment, there have been significant improvements. The largest number of developments have been in the areas of local function approximations and use of intermediate variable and response quantities. It also appears that some new methodologies are emerging which could greatly benefit from the introduction of new computer architecture.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

Recent advances in approximation concepts for optimum structural design

The basic approximation concepts used in structural optimization are reviewed. Some of the most recent developments in that area since the introduction of the concept in the mid-seventies are discussed. The paper distinguishes between local, medium-range, and global approximations; it covers functions approximations and problem approximations. It shows that, although the lack of comparative data established on reference test cases prevents an accurate assessment, there have been significant improvements. The largest number of developments have been in the areas of local function approximations and use of intermediate variable and response quantities. It also appears that some new methodologies are emerging which could greatly benefit from the introduction of new computer architecture.

Barthelemy, J.-F. M.↗

Preliminary SnowSAR Results from SnowEx 2017

SnowEx 2017 was the first in a multi-year series of airborne remote sensing campaigns, designed to address gaps in snow retrieval techniques in preparation for a future snow satellite mission. A variety of sensor types were flown to collect multi-sensor airborne data. In combination with detailed ground truth, this multi-sensor dataset enables critical trade studies to determine optimum sensor-plus-model combinations for different snow conditions and confounding factors. Up to half of terrestrial snow-covered areas are forested, and forests are a major confounding factor for global snow retrievals. Therefore, the main focus of SnowEx 2017 was evaluating the performance of the various sensing techniques to retrieve snow water equivalent (SWE) under steadily increasing amounts of forest cover. The primary site of Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA was selected for its natural gradients of forest density and SWE with a minimum of other factors. Radar retrievals of SWE relying on volume scattering have been studied for three decades, using a variety of frequencies, with varying degrees of success. The most recent volume scattering algorithms have focused on using 2 to 3 frequencies and both co- and cross-polarizations in the 9—18 GHz range (X through Ku bands). As such, one of the primary SnowEx 2017 airborne sensors was a dual-band (X & Ku) radar, the SnowSAR. Earlier versions of SnowSAR were used in 2011 and 2012 campaigns in Finland as well as a 2013 campaign in Canada. For SnowEx 2017, SnowSAR was installed on a P-3 aircraft from the US Naval Research Laboratory. Challenges associated with the aircraft, the installation, schedule, and flying weather all contrived to limit the amount of data collected. However, months of painstaking processing has yielded data that should be of value to the original objectives of SnowEx 2017. This paper will describe in detail the SnowSAR data that were collected, and provide quality assessments of the backscatter coefficient in terms of date, time, location, frequency, polarization, snow conditions, overlap with ground truth sites, forest density, etc. The challenges as well as potential remedies/caveats will be described in order to help guide users and maximize exploitation of this valuable data.

airborne sensors↗

Multivariate optimum interpolation of surface pressure and surface wind over oceans

The present multivariate analysis method for surface pressure and winds incorporates ship wind observations into the analysis of surface pressure. For the specific case of 0000 GMT, on February 3, 1979, the additional data resulted in a global rms difference of 0.6 mb; individual maxima as larse as 5 mb occurred over the North Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans. These differences are noted to be smaller than the analysis increments to the first-guess fields.

Bloom, S. C.↗

Multiobjective optimization techniques for structural design

The multiobjective programming techniques are important in the design of complex structural systems whose quality depends generally on a number of different and often conflicting objective functions which cannot be combined into a single design objective. The applicability of multiobjective optimization techniques is studied with reference to simple design problems. Specifically, the parameter optimization of a cantilever beam with a tip mass and a three-degree-of-freedom vabration isolation system and the trajectory optimization of a cantilever beam are considered. The solutions of these multicriteria design problems are attempted by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It has been observed that the game theory approach required the maximum computational effort, but it yielded better optimum solutions with proper balance of the various objective functions in all the cases.

Rao, S. S.↗

The Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm Employing Differential Evolution: Simulations and Applications

The ability to estimate the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed by a satellite lightning imager, such as the future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), would likely improve operational and scientific applications (e.g., severe weather warnings, lightning nitrogen oxides studies, and global electric circuit analyses). A Bayesian inversion method, called the Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm (GoFFRA), was recently developed for estimating the ground flash fraction. The method uses a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe a particular lightning optical measurement called the Maximum Group Area (MGA). To obtain the optimum model parameters (one of which is the desired ground flash fraction), a scalar function must be minimized. This minimization is difficult because of two problems: (1) Label Switching (LS), and (2) Parameter Identity Theft (PIT). The LS problem is well known in the literature on mixed exponential distributions, and the PIT problem was discovered in this study. Each problem occurs when one allows the numerical minimizer to freely roam through the parameter search space; this allows certain solution parameters to interchange roles which leads to fundamental ambiguities, and solution error. A major accomplishment of this study is that we have employed a state-of-the-art genetic-based global optimization algorithm called Differential Evolution (DE) that constrains the parameter search in such a way as to remove both the LS and PIT problems. To test the performance of the GoFFRA when DE is employed, we applied it to analyze simulated MGA datasets that we generated from known mixed exponential distributions. Moreover, we evaluated the GoFFRA/DE method by applying it to analyze actual MGAs derived from low-Earth orbiting lightning imaging sensor data; the actual MGA data were classified as either ground or cloud flash MGAs using National Lightning Detection Network[TM] (NLDN) data. Solution error plots are provided for both the simulations and actual data analyses.

Koshak, William↗

Global Geodetic Signatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Four scenarios of present day Antarctic ice sheet mass change are developed from comprehensive reviews of the available glaciological and oceanographic evidence. The gridded scenarios predict widely varying contributions to secular sea level change xi ranging from -1.1 to 0.45 mm/yr, and predict polar motion m and time-varying low-degree gravitational coefficients J(sub l) that differ significantly from earlier estimates. A reasonably linear relationship between the rate of sea level change from Antarctica xi(sub A) and the predicted Antarctic J(sub l) is found for the four scenarios. This linearity permits a series of forward models to be constructed that incorporate the effects of ice mass changes in Antarctica, Greenland, and distributed smaller glaciers, as well as postglacial rebound (assuming the ICE-3G deglaciation history), with the goal of obtaining optimum reconciliation between observed constraints on J(sub l) and sea level rise xi. Numerous viable combinations of lower mantle viscosity and hydrologic sources are found that safely "observed" in the range of 1 to 2-2.5 mm/yr and observed J(sub l) for degrees 2, 3, and 4. In contrast, rates of global sea level rise above 2.5 mm/yr are inconsistent with available J(sub l) observations. The successful composite models feature a pair of lower mantle viscosity solutions arising from the sensitivity of J(sub l) to glacial rebound. The paired values are well separated at xi = 1 mm/yr, but move closer together as xi is increased, and, in fact, merge around xi = 2 - 2.5 mm/yr, revealing an intimate relation between xi and preferred lower mantle viscosity. This general pattern is quite robust and persists for different J(sub l) solutions, for variations in source assumptions, and for different styles of lower mantle viscosity stratification. Tighter J(sub l) constraints for l greater than 2 may allow some viscosity stratification schemes and source assumptions to be excluded in the future. For a given total observed xi the sea level rise from Antarctica xi(sub A) is tightly constrained and ranges from 0 to + 1 mr/yr (corresponding to an ablating ice sheet) as estimates of xi are raised from 1 to 2.5 mm/yr. However, when the degree 3 zonal harmonic constraint is removed, the solutions show little sensitivity to Antarctic mass balance, emphasizing the need for a well determined odd-degree secular zonal harmonic for determining polar ice mass balance.

James, Thomas S.↗

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗