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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy

The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code

Agarwal, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2019

DeepCMB: Lensing reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background with deep neural networks

Next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments will have lower noise and therefore increased sensitivity, enabling improved constraints on fundamental physics parameters such as the sum of neutrino masses and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. Achieving competitive constraints on these parameters requires high signal-to-noise extraction of the projected gravitational potential from the CMB maps. Standard methods for reconstructing the lensing potential employ the quadratic estimator (QE). However, the QE performs suboptimally at the low noise levels expected in upcoming experiments. Other methods, like maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), are under active development. In this work, we demonstrate reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) - ie, a ResUNet. The network is trained and tested on simulated data, and otherwise has no physical parametrization related to the physical processes of the CMB and gravitational lensing. We show that, over a wide range of angular scales, ResUNets recover the input gravitational potential with a higher signal-to-noise ratio than the QE method, reaching levels comparable to analytic approximations of MLE methods. We demonstrate that the network outputs quantifiably different lensing maps when given input CMB maps generated with different cosmologies. We also show we can use the reconstructed lensing map for cosmological parameter estimation. This application of CNN provides a few innovations at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning. First, while training and regressing on images, we predict a continuous-variable field rather than discrete classes. Second, we are able to establish uncertainty measures for the network output that are analogous to standard methods. We expect this approach to excel in capturing hard-to-model non-Gaussian astrophysical foreground and noise contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

DeepCMB: Lensing Reconstruction of the CMB with Deep Neural Networks

Next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments will have lower noise and therefore increased sensitivity, enabling improved constraints on fundamental physics parameters such as the sum of neutrino masses and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. Achieving competitive constraints on these parameters requires high signal-to-noise extraction of the projected gravitational potential from the CMB maps. Standard methods for reconstructing the lensing potential employ the quadratic estimator (QE). However, the QE performs suboptimally at the low noise levels expected in upcoming experiments. Other methods, like maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), are under active development. In this work, we demonstrate reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) - ie, a ResUNet. The network is trained and tested on simulated data, and otherwise has no physical parametrization related to the physical processes of the CMB and gravitati onal lensing. We show that, over a wide range of angular scales, ResUNets recover the input gravitational potential with a higher signal-to-noise ratio than the QE method, reaching levels comparable to analytic approximations of MLE methods. We demonstrate that the network outputs quantifiably different lensing maps when given input CMB maps generated with different cosmologies. We also show we can use the reconstructed lensing map for cosmological parameter estimation. This application of CNN provides a few innovations at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning. First, while training and regressing on images, we predict a continuous-variable field rather than discrete classes. Second, we are able to establish uncertainty measures for the network output that are analogous to standard methods. We expect this approach to excel in capturing hard-to-model non-Gaussian astrophysical foreground and noise contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗
NASA NTRS1985

Study of the energy spectrum of primary cosmic rays: EAS size fluctuations at a fixed primary energy

During the initial period of the Samarkand EAS array operations the showers were selected on the basis of charged-particle flux density, and during the subsequent periods the showers were selected on the basis of Cerenkov light flux density. This procedure made it possible to measure the shower energy, to estimate the EAS size fluctuations at a fixed primary energy, and to experimentally obtain the scaling factor K(Ne, Eo) from the EAS size spectrum to the primary energy spectrum. Six scintillators of area S = 2 sq m each were added to the array. The fluctuations of EAS sizes in the showers of fixed primary energies and the scaling factors K(Ne, Eo) were inferred from the data obtained. The showers with zenith angles 30 deg were selected. The EAS axis positions were inferred from the amplitude data of the scintillators. The primary energy Eo was determined by the method of least squares for the known EAS axis position using the data of the Cerenkov detector located at 80 to 150 m EAS axis. It is shown that the Cerenkov light flux fluctuations at 100 m from EAS axis, q sub 100, do not exceed 10% at a fixed EAS energy, so the parameter q sub 100 may be used to estimate the EAS-generating primary particle-energy.

Allev, N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Realization of a high luminosity muon beam at the Jefferson Lab

The proton is the major component of the visible matter of our universe, so being able to determine its fundamental properties, such as its charge radius, is of vital importance. In recent years, several experiments have been performed for the accurate measurement of the proton radius with different experimental techniques. The main and most common are based on two different techniques: ep scattering and Lamb shift spectroscopy of regular hydrogen atoms. The latter can also be performed on muonic hydrogen atoms with a significant improvement in accuracy. Recent measurements that use this method have highlighted a discrepancy between the results obtained with the diffusion of electrons and those obtained with the spectroscopic technique leading to the so-called ?proton radius puzzle?. The explanation of why this difference between the measured values exists is still a matter of discussion. The last attempt to address the puzzle was the PRad Experiment. It was performed with a unique experimental setup that gave the scientists an excellent control on the systematic errors that are usually present in electron-proton scattering experiments. This has significantly increased the precision of the measurement, bringing it in the same area as the spectroscopic ones done on muonic hydrogen atoms, which are considered the most precise. However, to solve the puzzle once and for all, even more precise electron scattering measurements are needed. Alternatively, new methods can be used, such as eg. muon-proton scattering at low transferred momenta in order to lower the systematic errors that comes with the measurement. This thesis tries to address this problem by studying the set up of an intense muon beam at the Jefferson Laboratory (JLab) that can be used to carry out a high-precision m ? p scattering experiment. Using Montecarlo simulations I studied the muon production resulting from the interaction of the primary electron beam with the beam-dump at JLab Hall-A. The simulations were performed using the FLUKA package via the FLAIR graphical interface. In this study, I modified an existing geometry (built for the ?Beam Dump eXperiment?) and performed several studies in order to optimize the muon beam parameters. In order to estimate the beam intensity, I studied the muon generation and transportation through the concrete bunker surrounding the Hall-A beam-dump. Detailed studies on muon attenuation and dispersion at different depth allowed me to track the beam profile in space and momentum as a function of the distance from the beam-dump. Last, but not least, I studied a possible tagging system for the muon beam. The tagging system will allow us to know with good precision (O(1=1000)) the energy of each muon of the beam. Based on the results obtained, I created an event generator that incorporates the detailed description of the muon beam (energy, position, emittance) useful to define and optimize the experimental setup for a future measurement of the proton radius at the JLab.

Fulci, Antonino↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Propeller Source Noise Spheres

In this work, several neural network function approximations are compared for inter- polating, storing, and sampling acoustic source spheres with applications to propeller noise estimation. These methods are compared using an acoustic model of the three bladed GL-10 propeller at different flight conditions, with training data generated using NASA’s ANOPP-PAS module. The source spheres used to train the networks capture the tonal propeller noise due to both the blade thickness and loading. This tonal noise prediction method allows the vehicle noise to be estimated for auralization and acoustic control. Three radial basis function neural network architectures are compared in this work. The first two networks directly estimate the parameters of the source sphere at different flight conditions but differ in the number of layers used. The third network estimates the parameters of the source sphere using a weighted combination of spherical basis functions. These networks are trained on numerically generated source spheres, with operating points given in terms of the propeller rotation rate, freestream speed, and propeller angle of attack. The performance of the neural network is determined using a validation dataset of withheld data points. This performance is quantified in terms of the approximation error, training time, and sample time. The third network, which estimates the weights of the spherical basis functions, performs the best in both average and maximum approximation errors in all cases. This network’s worst case performance is 5.6 % relative dif- ference of a model parameter associated with acoustic pressure. The direct estimation network with a single layer has the worst approximation error in all cases. Additionally, the spherically defined network has the slowest sample time at 0.05 seconds per thousand points. Both direct estimation methods produce a thousand sample points in approximately 0.001 seconds.

Acoustics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole

We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 ± 3 μas and constrain its fractional width to be <0.5. Associating the crescent feature with the emission surrounding the black hole shadow, we infer an angular gravitational radius of GM/Dc2 = 3.8 ± 0.4 μas. Folding in a distance measurement of ${16.8}_{-0.7}^{+0.8}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ gives a black hole mass of $M=6.5\pm 0.2{| }_{\mathrm{stat}}\pm 0.7{| }_{\mathrm{sys}}\times {10}^{9}\hspace{2pt}{M}_{\odot }$. This measurement from lensed emission near the event horizon is consistent with the presence of a central Kerr black hole, as predicted by the general theory of relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Model and simulation development for turbopump health monitoring by parameter estimation

The nonlinear equations describing the flow, pressure and temperature dynamics of the High Pressure Fuel Turbopump of the Space Shuttle Main Engine are summarized and implemented in a digital simulation. Some closed form approximations to the operating curves of the turbopump are made so that closed form derivatives exist. These equations and approximations are then used to develop an extended Kalman filter that estimates the dynamic states of the turbopump and a parameter that can reflect turbopump degradation. The filter is implemented as a digital computer program and applied to data generated by the digital simulation of the turbopump with substantial noise added to the output signals. The results indicate that the parameter estimate converges quickly and accurately. This suggests that the parameter estimate can be used to monitor for turbopump degradations affecting its value.

Walker, Bruce K.↗
DOE OSTI2018

On Recombination Processes in CdS–PbS Films

The transverse and longitudinal photoconductivity, photoluminescence, and cathodoluminescence of sublimated (CdS){sub 0.9}–(PbS){sub 0.1} films at room temperature and upon cooling are studied. The role of inclusions of the narrow-gap phase in the processes is shown. The films are excited over the entire active surface and pointwise (within one crystallite). The surface recombination rate and the lifetime of majority charge carriers at different generation rates and characters of excitation are estimated. A comparative table of recombination parameters of CdS and CdS–PbS films is presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a framework for sequential Bayesian design of experiments: Application to a pilot-scale solvent-based CO 2 capture process

In this paper, a methodology is developed for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) for process systems and applied to a solvent-based CO 2 capture system. In this approach, the prior knowledge of the system is used to prioritize process data collection at specific operating conditions. These data are then incorporated into a Bayesian inference methodology for updating a stochastic model by refining estimations of its underlying parameters, and the updated model is then used to generate the next set of test runs. Thus, the new knowledge obtained from the data is used to guide subsequent iterations of the experimental runs, ensuring that the overall data collection is maximally informative given that most experimental campaigns, especially at pilot or higher-scale plants, are costly, time-consuming, and resource-limited. The test run objective for this work was to minimize the maximum model prediction uncertainty for key output variables, but the methodology is generic and can be readily applied to other test run objectives. This methodology is applied to an aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) pilot plant campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama, USA. The SDoE framework was utilized for two iterations, while collecting 18 sets of data representing different process conditions, and this resulted in an overall average reduction in uncertainty of approximately 50% in the prediction of CO 2 capture percentage. Moreover, 11 additional data sets were obtained with variation of absorber packing height for further model validation. This work shows the capability of the SDoE framework to maximize learning given limited resources, allowing for the reduction of model uncertainty, which is of great importance for many applications including reduction of technical risk associated with scale-up and economic analysis.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Shuttle /STS-1/ entry trajectory reconstruction

The methods and data used to reconstruct the Shuttle entry trajectory aerodynamics from 180 km to landing are reviewed. Onboard accelerometer and gyro measurements are used with a weighted least squares filter along with ground tracking data to provide the evolving spacecraft state. The software development is described, noting that computations include linear acceleration and angular rate data, aerodynamic coefficient, and inertial measurement units, sampled at 170 Hz. Ground tracking data was gathered on S- and C-bands; Guam data is considered critical as it was taken during the blackout at the beginning of entry. The generation of a best estimate trajectory, combining flight and ground data, yields inplane parameters of altitude, flight path angle, and velocity for comparison with navigational instrumentation. Predicted lift/drag ratios were found to be accurate from Mach 1-25, and up to 23% low below Mach 1.

Compton, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Low Order Equivalent System Identification for the Tu-144LL Supersonic Transport Aircraft

Low order equivalent system models were identified from flight test data for the Tu-144LL supersonic transport aircraft. Flight test maneuvers were executed by Russian and American test Pilots flying the aircraft from Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, Russia. Flight tests included longitudinal and lateral / directional maneuvers at supersonic cruise flight conditions. Piloted frequency sweeps and multi-step maneuvers were used to generate data for closed loop low order equivalent system modeling. Model parameters were estimated using a flexible. high accuracy Fourier transform and an equation error / output error (EE/OE) formulation in the frequency domain. Results were compared to parameter estimates obtained using spectral estimation and subsequent least squares fit to frequency response data in Bode plots. Modeling results from the two methods agreed well for both a frequency sweep and multiple concatenated multi-step maneuvers. For a single multi-step maneuvers the EE/OE method gave a better model fit with improved prediction capability. A summary of closed loop low order equivalent system identification results for the Tu-144LL, including estimated parameters, standard errors, and flying qualities level predictions, were computed and tabulated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Using explanatory crop models to develop simple tools for Advanced Life Support system studies

System-level analyses for Advanced Life Support require mathematical models for various processes, such as for biomass production and waste management, which would ideally be integrated into overall system models. Explanatory models (also referred to as mechanistic or process models) would provide the basis for a more robust system model, as these would be based on an understanding of specific processes. However, implementing such models at the system level may not always be practicable because of their complexity. For the area of biomass production, explanatory models were used to generate parameters and multivariable polynomial equations for basic models that are suitable for estimating the direction and magnitude of daily changes in canopy gas-exchange, harvest index, and production scheduling for both nominal and off-nominal growing conditions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2019

Highly-scalable, physics-informed GANs for learning solutions of stochastic PDEs

Uncertainty quantification for forward and inverse problems is a central challenge across physical and biomedical disciplines. We address this challenge for the problem of modeling subsurface flow at the Hanford Site by combining stochastic computational models with observational data using physics-informed GAN models. The geographic extent, spatial heterogeneity, and multiple correlation length scales of the Hanford Site require training a computationally intensive GAN model to thousands of dimensions. We develop a highly optimized implementation that scales to {\herogpucount} NVIDIA Volta GPUs. We develop a hierarchical scheme based on a multi-player game-theoretic approach for exploiting domain parallelism, map discriminators and generators to multiple GPUs, and employ efficient communication schemes to ensure training stability and convergence. Our implementation scales to {\heronodecount} nodes on the Summit supercomputer with a \weakscalingeff\% scaling efficiency, achieving peak and sustained half-precision rates of {\heropeakperf} PF/s and {\herosustainedperf} PF/s.

physics informed ML, machine learning, generative ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The state of meteoritic material on the moon

Velocity distributions obtained from earth-based meteor observations and corrected to constant meteoroid mass are transformed to meteoroid impact velocity distributions at the moon. Average velocities at the moon thus obtained range from 13 to 18 km/sec. This information is then combined with impact heating estimates to determine the amounts of resident lunar material and incoming meteoritic material that is melted or vaporized. It is found that about 5% of the resulting melt and about 25% of the impact generated vapor should be of meteoritic content. The uncertainties in these estimates are rather large, however, because of uncertainties in the various experimental results required to establish the parameters used in this analysis. The impact generated melts and impact generated vapor deposits, if the latter can be found, should provide additional means for chemically separating out the meteoritic component in the lunar soil.

Zook, H. A.↗